Is It Time For The Cubs To Consider Trading Nico Hoerner To Clear Space For Prospects?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

As the Chicago Cubs continue their plight in the National League playoff picture, the conversation has somewhat naturally shifted to the buy/sell concept for next month’s MLB trade deadline. 

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

There is, of course, the discussion as to whether the Cubs even have players of enough value worthy of selling. Given the volume of underperforming players on the roster, it's not an entirely unreasonable opinion. Those worth moving at the deadline are more likely to be players the team prefers to keep in the longer term, anyway. But as the chatter started to pick up, the internet latched onto one of the team’s higher-profile names to garner a reasonable return: Nico Hoerner. 

Hoerner was previously seen as something of a building block for the “next great Cubs team,” with the team signing him to an extension last March. That deal runs through 2026 with an AAV of just under $12 million. While the deal might’ve told us something about how the Cubs view Hoerner in the general context of their future, it’s also not one that would be too cumbersome for another team to take on in a trade, either.

In pondering the idea of a Hoerner trade, it’s not so much wondering what a return would look like but whether the time is right for such a move. While Hoerner has worked his way back from a tough start on the defensive side – his Fielding Run Value has run up to 2 since it was on the other end of that threshold to start the year – the offense hasn’t been there in the way that we might’ve hoped. He’s at a wRC+ of 98 for the year and is still in the throes of his worth month. That figure stands at 79 for June. There are caveats, though.

At the same time, the broad output looks pretty similar to what we’ve seen before. His strikeout rate is just 10.4 percent, while his walks are up a touch, at 9.4. He’s still reaching base at a reasonable .336 clip, too. He isn’t making as much quality contact, which is holding his average down, but it’s not as if he’s fallen off a cliff in the way that, say, his middle infield partner has. The bat is one of contact and on-base, with not much else. As long as the defense is there, he has just enough value, given the offensive skill set, to be a desirable player at the keystone (or perhaps even shortstop) for prospective teams.

It’s not as if the team would be selling low on Hoerner at this juncture. He’s largely the same player, just with a little less luck, given the decline in contact quality. As such, it’s not as if the return would be anything earth-shattering in the first place. The return now is probably what the return would’ve been before. 

Whether this is a move the Cubs should explore is another thing entirely; it seems likely that a trade of Hoerner would be about opening up an infield spot for a rising prospect more than anything. Matt Shaw & James Triantos might offer more upside with the bat than Hoerner provides. While the team will likely seek to get Shaw in at third base in the somewhat near future, Triantos is more limited. If it’s not second, it’s an outfield corner, where the team has even less wiggle room for future personnel. I suppose it’s also possible (though far less likely) that the team shifts Michael Busch over to the keystone, a position at which he does have some experience, in pursuit of a legitimate power bat at first base. 

A trade of Nico Hoerner wouldn’t be about continuing to stock the farm system. It would be about logistics. It would make things a bit easier to manage the next wave of prospects or move others around should they get some impact offense into the mix. Is a trade for the sake of logistics a desirable thing? Probably not. Especially when discussing a player as steady and likable as Hoerner. But the team is in the position that they’re in, with very few trade options to show for it. This means that, at least among the fans, this chatter isn’t going away anytime soon.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thank you for asking, no it is not

[Bertz]

I don't think we have the prospect depth specifically at 2B for this to be imperative right now.  With similar arguments around Happ/Suzuki you've got a critical mass of upper minors outfield prospects, plus guys like Triantos and maybe even Morel who probably could be outfielders if you wanted to go that way.

At 2B like you said it's mainly just Shaw and Triantos.  Maybe you could get wacky and do Morel or Busch?  But especially with 3B currently open organizationally I don't see the pressure to move Hoerner, or frankly anyone on the infield.

That said it's not crazy to think the tune could be a little different by this winter.  If you're looking to add a FA hitter this winter the best non-Soto options are infielders like Adames and Bregman and Gleyber.  Also a few weeks from now in the draft the team could end up with a Cam Smith or Christian Moore, infielders with possible September '25 ETAs.  Suddenly you've got a legitimate glut.

That said even in the above situation, I'm not sure Hoerner is the guy I want to dump.  He has a unique offensive profile that compliments a lot of our patient (one could argue passive) low contact types.  Sure the team needs power and Nico's not a power hitter, but I think the solution is getting more power from the spots that are supposed to provide it rather than further homogenizing the lineup just to squeeze in an extra 5-10 expected dongs.

[chopsx9]

I posted in the offseason about the prospect of trading Hoerner.  It's not that I don't think he's a good player but I don't think he's going to age particularly well and I don't think he gets extended with a big contract so I think there could be some margin in selling high.  To be clear I'm not advocating dumping him for for a rosin bag - I think he is a valuable trade commodity that the Cubs could get a good return on.