Which Cubs Prospects Could Come Up from the Minors to Help the 2024 Cubs?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

One way or another, change is coming for the 2024 Chicago Cubs. Their struggles this season are going to force the issue. The team has a loaded farm system. Can their reinforcements come from within?

Should things continue at their current pace, the Chicago Cubs are going to find themselves in a weird sort of purgatory as the trade deadline approaches. They're not necessarily bad enough to sell. They're certainly not good enough to buy. With the former, you wonder which of their underperforming players from either side of the ball would even fetch a decent return. If the latter somehow occurs, is the front office willing to send away upper-tier talent in pursuit of meaningful change? 

It's all hypothetical, but there’s a certain murkiness to this team’s future now, both in the short and in the long term. But there’s also an additional component to this discussion to keep in mind. That vaunted farm system that we’ve heard so much about this year has some talent hitting the upper minors, and could soon be banging on the door of the big leagues. From an offensive perspective, it’ll be an interesting situation to navigate.

As far as the hitters go, there are a few names we could see touch the field at Wrigley before 2024 draws to a close. The most logical names in such a discussion include Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, and Moises Ballesteros. They represent three of the team’s top five positional prospects. They’re exciting names, to be sure. But they aren’t the only ones. Brennen Davis still exists in Iowa. James Triantos shouldn’t be completely ruled out, either, as he's thriving in Double-A Tennessee.

A quick rundown:

• Caissie isn’t posting quite the gaudy power numbers that he did last year, but he’s still balancing a strikeout rate around 28% with a walk rate around 15%. He’s added a few steals.

• Matt Shaw came out hot, hit a lull, and has since regained steam. He’s reaching base at a .358 clip, with 10 homers and 17 steals thus far. He could jump up to Iowa soon.

• Ballesteros has already made his move up a level, after posting a 154 wRC+ in Tennessee; he’s hitting .350 in 20 plate appearances since arriving in Iowa.

• Davis has had awful batted ball luck (.212 BABIP) to go along with his consistently awful injury luck (only 36 games played), but has been much better than some of the numbers may indicate. He features a .314 ISO across 136 trips to the plate.

• James Triantos isn’t walking as much this year, but is still hitting .309 and striking out only 10 percent of the time. He has 25 steals, too.

Those five names have at least plausible potential to reach the top level this year, and they offer the most intrigue of anyone in the system. Among other names, BJ Murray Jr has struggled. Kevin Alcántara is only just about to return to game action after a two-week absence. Jefferson Rojas is still a long way off. Luis Vázquez has already made his debut, and could come back as a supplementary glove for the infield at some point. Each of the five names above, though, presents interesting positional context and could have a significant bearing on how close to reality their Wrigley Field arrival may actually be.

If we’re going for pure logic, Ballesteros represents the most straightforward addition. Miguel Amaya has been well below average on both sides of the ledger, while Tomás Nido only offers so much upside. Ballesteros has the potential to be a massive offensive upgrade if he can handle upper-level pitching, while not presenting much of a dropoff behind the dish. His biggest weakness there is in controlling the running game, which isn’t unusual, given how Cub catchers have fared in that aspect this year.

Continuing to go by order of logic, Shaw comes next. If the team is still unhappy with Christopher Morel’s defense at third (and you'd hope they are), Shaw could present more stability there. He’s played 37 games at the position this year, after only three in 2023. From a lineup perspective, you’re bumping Morel back to DH and likely improving team defense as a result. Such a promotion would mean Shaw either skipping a level or enduring a very short stint in Iowa. That’s not entirely out of the question, given just how dominant his hot stretches have been this year.

From there, things become less clear. Short of a trade somewhere, the path is much more clouded for the two outfielders. The team has Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki entrenched in the outfield. Mike Tauchman should be, too, in about three weeks. While Caissie and Davis offer really interesting upside, it’s hard to imagine space for them on the roster as currently constructed--even with the designated hitter slot theoretically open. 

The same could be said of Triantos. The idea of a Nico Hoerner trade is something I’ve seen floated on social media, given the team’s overall lack of quality trade candidates. But just a year removed from an extension and in the midst of a below-average 2024, it’s hard to envision a move. Triantos has appeared on the outfield grass sometimes. But even then, we’re looking at the same issue with which Caissie and Davis would be confronted. Of course, like Shaw, Triantos has another level of minor-league ball he could work through if the team is hellbent on some sort of promotion.

Ultimately, that means that if we’re attempting to project Cubs prospects who could factor into the second half, we’re likely looking at Moises Ballesteros or Matt Shaw given the context of the roster. Each offers the most straightforward option, with Amaya taking a backseat or Morel heading back to full-time DH duties. Either one would be a move that could be made without upsetting the current roster construction. At the same time, the construction could end up looking quite different in the coming weeks. Perhaps the Cubs make a move with the idea of opening up some space for prospects like Caissie, Davis or Triantos. 

Overall, though, it’s difficult to get too razzed about the idea of one of the Cubs’ top hitting prospects making their Wrigley Field debut before 2024 runs out. It just doesn’t appear to be in this front office’s nature to promote aggressively. That might end up making someone like Davis or even Murray Jr most likely, depending on how the team approaches the deadline. The next month of play and the team's choices about their future will determine who could and should come up once we hit the later stages of the summer.

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[GuyA]

Don't disagree with anything in the article but I do have a question. What heinous crime against God and nature did Alexander Canario commit to not even be an after thought when discussing call ups? He's 24, two years younger than Busch, in his limited time in the majors, getting limited PAs at odd moments he has a .870+ OPS (137 OPS+), he has a .900+ OPS at AAA and has had solid .840+ OPS the two previous years. He can play CF and steal bases. He doesn't appear to have a cool nickname but that seems to be his biggest flaw. On a related note, why hasn't Davis played in two weeks but isn't on the IL?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, GuyA said:

Don't disagree with anything in the article but I do have a question. What heinous crime against God and nature did Alexander Canario commit to not even be an after thought when discussing call ups? He's 24, two years younger than Busch, in his limited time in the majors, getting limited PAs at odd moments he has a .870+ OPS (137 OPS+), he has a .900+ OPS at AAA and has had solid .840+ OPS the two previous years. He can play CF and steal bases. He doesn't appear to have a cool nickname but that seems to be his biggest flaw. On a related note, why hasn't Davis played in two weeks but isn't on the IL?

Welcome!

On Canario, I think many wouldn't be upset if he were recalled, but there's a couple things that work against him.  One is that while his top line performance has been good, his peripherals(in particular his K rate) paint a more worrisome picture about that performance translating to MLB in larger samples.  The other factor is his fit on the roster.  There isn't a clear path to Canario being the best matchup option for regular playing time given the makeup of the 3 starting OFs, and Tauchman, while left handed, is a pretty split neutral option who narrows opportunities further.  And in a more bench-specific role he's duplicative with Wisdom, who also has some ability to play the infield.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, GuyA said:

Don't disagree with anything in the article but I do have a question. What heinous crime against God and nature did Alexander Canario commit to not even be an after thought when discussing call ups? He's 24, two years younger than Busch, in his limited time in the majors, getting limited PAs at odd moments he has a .870+ OPS (137 OPS+), he has a .900+ OPS at AAA and has had solid .840+ OPS the two previous years. He can play CF and steal bases. He doesn't appear to have a cool nickname but that seems to be his biggest flaw. On a related note, why hasn't Davis played in two weeks but isn't on the IL?

His overall numbers look good! But his underlying numbers paint an ugly picture of someone who's bound to fail. Only two hitters in the International League currently have worst contact rates than Canario's ~61%. This is almost 12% below league average. As well, his in-zone-whiff of 28% is bottom-5. It's not even like this is a skill he's improving on; it's 60% over his last few weeks (including his bonkers home run stretch) and it's down 7% from 2023. He's regressing. 

I've posted it other places, but the only MLB hitter with contact rates in this range (in-zone, o-zone, in-zone-whiff, contact%...) is Nolan Gorman, who owns a 95 wRC+ (.197/.271/.418), is striking out 35% of the time, and has been a 0 fWAR player this season. He was better last year, but his contact rates and swing choices were much better. 

So the best case scenario for Canario, right now, looks like Nolan Gorman's 2024. But even that is a best case...it's probable that Canario's contact rate against better pitching will not start at the 61% range, for example. The processes matter more than the lines when we're projecting what we expect Canario to do. 

That's not to say Canario is always going to suck, but that right now, he probably would. And sure, he might go on one of those nuclear weeks where he hits five bombs and has a .400 average - kind of like Patrick Wisdom. But between the two nuclear weeks he has all season, you're probably looking at 40% strike out rates, little offensive production, no real defensive ability....so you're just gambling that those nuclear weeks are coming soon and you can avoid the latter.