Which Cubs Prospects Could Come Up from the Minors to Help the 2024 Cubs?

Should things continue at their current pace, the Chicago Cubs are going to find themselves in a weird sort of purgatory as the trade deadline approaches. They're not necessarily bad enough to sell. They're certainly not good enough to buy. With the former, you wonder which of their underperforming players from either side of the ball would even fetch a decent return. If the latter somehow occurs, is the front office willing to send away upper-tier talent in pursuit of meaningful change? 

It's all hypothetical, but there’s a certain murkiness to this team’s future now, both in the short and in the long term. But there’s also an additional component to this discussion to keep in mind. That vaunted farm system that we’ve heard so much about this year has some talent hitting the upper minors, and could soon be banging on the door of the big leagues. From an offensive perspective, it’ll be an interesting situation to navigate.

As far as the hitters go, there are a few names we could see touch the field at Wrigley before 2024 draws to a close. The most logical names in such a discussion include Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, and Moises Ballesteros. They represent three of the team’s top five positional prospects. They’re exciting names, to be sure. But they aren’t the only ones. Brennen Davis still exists in Iowa. James Triantos shouldn’t be completely ruled out, either, as he's thriving in Double-A Tennessee.

A quick rundown:

• Caissie isn’t posting quite the gaudy power numbers that he did last year, but he’s still balancing a strikeout rate around 28% with a walk rate around 15%. He’s added a few steals.

• Matt Shaw came out hot, hit a lull, and has since regained steam. He’s reaching base at a .358 clip, with 10 homers and 17 steals thus far. He could jump up to Iowa soon.

• Ballesteros has already made his move up a level, after posting a 154 wRC+ in Tennessee; he’s hitting .350 in 20 plate appearances since arriving in Iowa.

• Davis has had awful batted ball luck (.212 BABIP) to go along with his consistently awful injury luck (only 36 games played), but has been much better than some of the numbers may indicate. He features a .314 ISO across 136 trips to the plate.

• James Triantos isn’t walking as much this year, but is still hitting .309 and striking out only 10 percent of the time. He has 25 steals, too.

Those five names have at least plausible potential to reach the top level this year, and they offer the most intrigue of anyone in the system. Among other names, BJ Murray Jr has struggled. Kevin Alcántara is only just about to return to game action after a two-week absence. Jefferson Rojas is still a long way off. Luis Vázquez has already made his debut, and could come back as a supplementary glove for the infield at some point. Each of the five names above, though, presents interesting positional context and could have a significant bearing on how close to reality their Wrigley Field arrival may actually be.

If we’re going for pure logic, Ballesteros represents the most straightforward addition. Miguel Amaya has been well below average on both sides of the ledger, while Tomás Nido only offers so much upside. Ballesteros has the potential to be a massive offensive upgrade if he can handle upper-level pitching, while not presenting much of a dropoff behind the dish. His biggest weakness there is in controlling the running game, which isn’t unusual, given how Cub catchers have fared in that aspect this year.

Continuing to go by order of logic, Shaw comes next. If the team is still unhappy with Christopher Morel’s defense at third (and you'd hope they are), Shaw could present more stability there. He’s played 37 games at the position this year, after only three in 2023. From a lineup perspective, you’re bumping Morel back to DH and likely improving team defense as a result. Such a promotion would mean Shaw either skipping a level or enduring a very short stint in Iowa. That’s not entirely out of the question, given just how dominant his hot stretches have been this year.

From there, things become less clear. Short of a trade somewhere, the path is much more clouded for the two outfielders. The team has Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki entrenched in the outfield. Mike Tauchman should be, too, in about three weeks. While Caissie and Davis offer really interesting upside, it’s hard to imagine space for them on the roster as currently constructed--even with the designated hitter slot theoretically open. 

The same could be said of Triantos. The idea of a Nico Hoerner trade is something I’ve seen floated on social media, given the team’s overall lack of quality trade candidates. But just a year removed from an extension and in the midst of a below-average 2024, it’s hard to envision a move. Triantos has appeared on the outfield grass sometimes. But even then, we’re looking at the same issue with which Caissie and Davis would be confronted. Of course, like Shaw, Triantos has another level of minor-league ball he could work through if the team is hellbent on some sort of promotion.

Ultimately, that means that if we’re attempting to project Cubs prospects who could factor into the second half, we’re likely looking at Moises Ballesteros or Matt Shaw given the context of the roster. Each offers the most straightforward option, with Amaya taking a backseat or Morel heading back to full-time DH duties. Either one would be a move that could be made without upsetting the current roster construction. At the same time, the construction could end up looking quite different in the coming weeks. Perhaps the Cubs make a move with the idea of opening up some space for prospects like Caissie, Davis or Triantos. 

Overall, though, it’s difficult to get too razzed about the idea of one of the Cubs’ top hitting prospects making their Wrigley Field debut before 2024 runs out. It just doesn’t appear to be in this front office’s nature to promote aggressively. That might end up making someone like Davis or even Murray Jr most likely, depending on how the team approaches the deadline. The next month of play and the team's choices about their future will determine who could and should come up once we hit the later stages of the summer.