Nick Madrigal Survives Cubs Roster Shakeup, But Might Have Short-Lived Reprieve

[Matthew Trueblood]

With one middle infielder returning from the injured list and another being called up from Triple-A Iowa for the first time, we knew there would be at least one infielder shoved off the 26-man roster. Surprisingly, though, there was only one.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Luis Vázquez was not called up to deliver an injection of offense for the Cubs. He's a glove-first shortstop, and he's unlikely to make many starts for the team. He got the call, even as the team reinstated Dansby Swanson from the injured list, because the last few days were a maddening affirmation of the frustratingly persistent reality of the Cubs' infield defense: it hasn't been good enough.

With both Swanson and Nico Hoerner sidelined by leg injuries for the last week, Craig Counsell was forced to use both Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal as starting middle infielders, and they weren't equal to the challenge that posed to their admirable but limited talent. It's not just a Mastrobuoni and Madrigal problem, though. Even when Swanson and/or Hoerner have been on the field this year, the club's infield has been too porous. Christopher Morel and Michael Busch each have good athleticism for corner infielders, but they're inexperienced, mistake-prone, and ultimately just barely playable at their respective positions. Swanson and Hoerner were the best middle infield in baseball for most of last season, but they haven't looked like themselves this year, either.

Add it all up, and the Cubs are 29th in MLB in Defensive Efficiency (DER, which is just outs divided by batted balls) on batted balls with a launch angle under 7 degrees this year. Within that broad and telling stat sit Morel's many mistakes, Mastrobuoni being too slow and too weak-armed for shortstop, and the team being the worst in baseball at converting ground balls in double play situations into actual double plays. They're not cutting it, and the team can't win unless they start getting much better glovework all the way around the horn.

Getting Swanson (and, hopefully, Hoerner) back should help matters, and swapping Mastrobuoni out for Vázquez will, too. It's telling that the Cubs kept Madrigal, while demoting Mastrobuoni, because it hints at the possibility that they'll make more use of the diminutive defensive whiz at third base in the near future, with their starting middle infield restored and no further need for Madrigal at second base. He's a zero offensively, but he's hung onto a roster spot by doing sensational work at the hot corner since the team moved him there last spring.

Vázquez is an offensive upgrade over Madrigal, although admittedly, it would be hard not to be. Last year, while he was underwhelming and unproductive basically all year, Madrigal did at least manage to fling a ball out to the deep part of left field. Here's his 2023 spray chart.

That's hardly a budding power hitter, and because Madrigal's plate discipline isn't good enough, it's not even the picture of the Luis Arráez-type guy the Cubs hoped they could develop after acquiring him in 2021. It is, however, a theoretically viable spray chart, for a player who plays elite defense at a position in the middle of the defensive spectrum. Alas, that's not Madrigal anymore. Here's the same chart, but for 2024.

Defenses have begun aligning themselves against Madrigal in ways that would be laughable--unthinkable, even--against pretty much any other hitter in the modern major leagues, including Arráez. He's losing what few hits his quality of contact should earn, because teams can place their fielders without fear of him burning them in any way. He's not quite a pitcher up there, because he does still make a lot of contact, but that's the only thing dividing him from the species of hitter legislated out of the game due to intractable incompetence.

Vázquez is not a big bat. He's put up fine overall numbers in the high minors, but his skills aren't going to permit that to translate to MLB. He's unlikely ever to be an everyday player, at least on a good team. However, he's much, much more of a viable contributor than Madrigal. Here's his 2024 spray chart, for comparison.

It's apples-to-oranges, because Madrigal has spent the whole season in MLB and the Vázquez has spent it in Triple-A, but the numbers tell us Vázquez is a vastly better hitter than Madrigal is.

Stat	Vázquez	Madrigal
Hard Hit %	38.3	19.1
Med LA %	30.3	29.4
90th %ile EV	102.7	98.1
Sweet Spot EV	90.9	86.7
wSSEV	81.1	78.9

So, while he's taking Mastrobuoni's roster spot, Vázquez will really take Madrigal's role--or he ought to. The question, then, is why the Cubs kept Madrigal around at all. His glove is valuable, but Vázquez could play third if needed, too. Two backup infielders who are both defense-first seem to constitute an unaffordable roster luxury for this competitive but incomplete Cubs team.

In short, I doubt that the move is permanent, in any significant sense. With Brennen Davis hitting the way he is in Iowa, it's perfectly possible that he (or, should either of them make big strides, Alexander Canario or Owen Caissie) will come up at the expense of Madrigal within a few weeks. In the meantime, this move makes the most sense, because if Swanson or Hoerner need to DH at all while they continue to fully recover from their injuries, Vázquez is a preferable fill-in to Mastrobuoni.

Meanwhile, now that Cody Bellinger is fully healthy and ready to play center field regularly again, Pete Crow-Armstrong became redundant, and even problematic. Having Bellinger in center most of the time again will allow the team to use Morel as the DH more often, if they so choose. Bellinger, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman are a sufficient outfield corps for now, with Patrick Wisdom able to moonlight in a corner if a need arises. You wouldn't want Wisdom as your fifth outfielder all season, but soon, that role will probably go to one of the minor leaguers named above.

Crow-Armstrong might not ever be a first-division regular. He has a higher ceiling than Vázquez, but the high point on his bell curve of possible outcomes might fall closer to past Cubs outfield prospects-turned-journeyman fourth outfielders Corey Patterson and Félix Pie than to stardom. There's still time for him to push that curve to the right, but he needs to play every day to progress in that direction, and the big-league team can't give him those reps right now.

On the surface, Monday's moves are mildly surprising. Given the Cubs' current situation, though, they make sense, and the confusion or tension they create could well be solved by another move or two within the next fortnight.

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[Billy62]

I think a change on the infield roster was inevitable. I am not yet sold on the fact that that spot can be filled by Vasquez over Madrigal though. If the logic is to give this kid a look over at the major league level, that is just fine. The Hoerner example shining brightly here. Madrigal never has had any real offensive punch in his bat. His value had always been a high contact rate, a near .300 batting average, and an ability to get that clutch base hit just when you needed it. His defense was solid and while not what you would call stellar, he would not embarrass you in the field. This year he seems to be striking out more and more, and at times appears to be overmatched at the plate. The clutch base hits seem to be fewer, but sill his defense has been adequate. While not being an exciting player to watch he hasn't been a real disaster either. You make changes to a roster to improve a ballclub, and after the time allowed to let Vazquez acclimate to major league pitching, not quite sure if we are trading apples for apples here. I think this back-up infielder spot could be filled nicely by David Bote. He had a spring worthy of a shot at the big league level. I know there are option and waiver issues in bringing him up and eventually sending him down. But if Bote is not up to the task of competing at the major league level, what are the real losses if you lose him on a waiver claim if you have to send him back down? Plus side is he gives you that much more thump off the bench and allows you to remain competitive in the face of injury or even slump. All of this while allowing Vazquez to hone his skills in Iowa. I think if you could dangle Madrigal as possible trading tender for a reliable arm out of the bullpen that is the way to go. There is some element of risk here, but I don't think it is over the top.

 

[Guest234]

Jed wants his own hurrahs and Bote was a Theo signing, Kyle is being pushed out now and then it will be we'll see won't we?

[CubinNY]

lol, batted ball data for Nickky. 

[squally1313]

On 5/21/2024 at 9:36 AM, Matthew Trueblood said:

Vázquez is an offensive upgrade over Madrigal, although admittedly, it would be hard not to be.

 

On 5/21/2024 at 9:36 AM, Matthew Trueblood said:

the numbers tell us Vázquez is a vastly better hitter than Madrigal is.

Nick Madrigal since May 1: .227/.292/.250, 62 wRC

Luis Vazquez since May 1: .143/.273/.232, 39 wRC - goes without saying, but this is at a lower level of competition

Madrigal put up an 83 wRC last year. ZIPs ROS has Vasquez at an 84, and who knows how often they rerun those numbers on minor league players but hitting at AAA league average probably can't help much. 

Madrigal is a bad hitter with one functional offensive skill set. Some guy running a hot month in AAA (Vasquez in April: .341/.418/.506, 142 wRC) does not automatically become a vastly better hitter just because he's new and different. You know who had a hot month in AAA? Nick Madrigal, when he had 70 PAs there last year and went .424/.514/.678, 203 wRC, more walks than Ks.