Article: Where Did The Cubs' Plate Discipline Go?

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The Cubs had a relatively successful west coast road trip but their plate discipline spiraled. What happened?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The early reputation of the 2024 Chicago Cubs centered heavily around their plate discipline. It was covered here on multiple occasions in the early going, highlighted by growth from the likes of Ian Happ, Christopher Morel, and Dansby Swanson. The flashing upside of a low-turnover lineup under new leadership had our attention in the most complementary way, as they continually ran up pitch counts and chased opposing starters early in games. From here on out, the words are not meant to dismiss any of that as a mirage. 

Chicago went 5-4 on their nine-game West Coast road swing. It was a run that easily could have ended 7-2 if not for a pair of bullpen meltdowns in San Diego and Arizona. Nevertheless, given how these things tend to go for the Cubs – at least anecdotally – that record seems acceptable coming back to Wrigley Field on Thursday. 

Of course, the injuries and adjacent composition of the pitching staff are going to garner the most attention regarding any disappointment, especially given that that facet was almost directly responsible for the two most egregious losses of the trip. However, there’s a notable trend emerging on the other side of the ball, out of what was previously believed to be the strength of this squad. And it lies in that same plate discipline we were lauding only ten days ago. 

What the Cubs were able to do – specifically the likes of Happ & Morel – was avoid pitches outside the strike zone. Get pitches to come to the zone and make contact from there. Through April 7^th, that’s absolutely what they were doing: 

O-Swing%
	Pre-4/7	Post-4/7 (Road Trip)
Dansby Swanson	14.4	34.3
Nico Hoerner	22.4	30.8
Christopher Morel	18.8	30.4
Cody Bellinger	16.1	27.9
Ian Happ	21.6	19.4
Michael Busch	22.5	21.6

For the first four names listed, it’s not just that the discipline appeared to dip a bit. It tanked. Swanson – whose discipline was evincing itself in consistently hard contact – was hitting .310 and reaching base at a .432 clip before the Cubs set out on the trip. He comes back at just .235 & .303 in those categories. Morel was at .306 and .342. He’s now .217 and .267. Bellinger was at .229 and .341, only to return at .200 and .296. 

Swanson may be the most concerning of the three. We recently discussed his historic month-to-month variance, specifically noting that he needed to hone in on the fastball from a Swing% standpoint. And he had been early on, generating consistently hard contact. However, recent trends indicate that his fastball swinging has taken a backseat to other pitch types. It’s not as if pitchers have adjusted in the way they approach him, either. He’s still seeing a heavy share of fastballs (which is generally the case just due to the nature of pitcher approaches). If we’re looking for a concern level, Swanson’s history puts him on our watch list. 

Morel – who, as an aside, showcased some massive defensive growth on the road – is also someone we’re keeping our eye on. He was so patient coming out of the gate but gradually fell back into his free-swinging habits. Bellinger hasn’t found his footing, save for a few individual moments, so we’re kind of biding our time in following his trends for now. 

With those three specifically, you wonder about the nature of such a road trip and the mental aspect. While we can’t quantify it, these are all everyday players. You’re adjusting to late starts. You’ve got the travel. The team played multiple extra-inning games. Spare me the big-league paycheck spiel. There’s a mental factor here. Moving forward, the question will center around how much. of it is due to just that versus regression from the progress we saw earlier.

In something of a contrast, Hoerner, Happ, and Busch each present different outcomes in their change in swing habits during their time out west. 

Hoerner became far more patient from the season's outset but without the results. In the years before that, he demonstrated what I might call measured aggression. He’ll swing, but never at any shocking rate that proves a detriment to his overall output. An O-Swing% lingering around 30 percent isn’t a crazy figure for him because he compensates with regular contact.

For Hoerner, it’s more a matter of whether we see him return to a more aggressive style, given that the patience hasn’t manifested in the results he might’ve been hoping for (even if the underlying stuff was encouraging). In the last two years, he’s gone for contact rates of 77.0 and 80.7 percent on pitches outside the strike zone. He also had almost twice as many hits on the road as he had notched all year to that point, including two multi-hit games. It is far too small a sample to declare any level of correlation, but it is an interesting development to monitor nonetheless. 

In contrast to Hoerner’s rising swing rates, the patience of Ian Happ didn’t yield…anything for him on the trip. Happ, whose evolution into a perfectly acceptable leadoff hitter was documented earlier this week, was hitting .361 and featured a .458 OBP after the Cubs’ last game at Wrigley. He returns at .247 and .353. Happ had a three-hit game in the 12-11 loss in Arizona but only recorded two hits otherwise. He struck out nine times on the road (more than he had the year before departing) against only five walks. There is such a thing as too patient at the plate. Is that what we’re seeing with Ian Happ? 

Interestingly, rookie Michael Busch is the only hitter emerging from the trip with fewer questions. He recorded hits in seven of the nine games, including his five-game home run streak. He was on base 17 times, with just about all counting stats coming in higher upon the team’s return to the North Side. As genuinely impressive as Busch had already been, the fact that he stands so far apart from his veteran counterparts speaks volumes about his ability to adjust so early in his big-league career. It’s not a surprise, as he showcased this ability at each level, but it does instill a level of comfort that his excellence at the plate thus far is at least remotely sustainable. 

Again, none of this is to say that the Cubs’ early plate discipline was an apparition. The team emphasized approach in the spring, and each of these hitters has demonstrated an ability to do just that. Engaging so heavily at the plate can also become exhausting over the long term. So we may see lapses as the season wears on, especially when the Cubs are enduring a stretch such as they have been for the last two-ish weeks.

What it does, though, is raise some interesting points of emphasis to monitor. We’re watching Swanson, Morel, & Bellinger for their early-season variance. Hoerner to see if his approach reverts to a previous vintage. Happ will determine the line between patience being a virtue and vice. And Busch’s sustainability in the middle of all of it. Ultimately, we’re still playing in the sandbox of small samples. You can’t make declarations in April. But you can ask questions.

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They faced a bunch of really good pitchers.

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Re today:Bruce Sutter threw a splitter, Dick Tidrow did not.