Diving Into Nico Hoerner's New Approach, and Assessing Its Value

It’s no secret that Nico Hoerner has had a relatively disappointing start to the 2024 season. He didn’t play in the last game of the Padres series, giving him two consecutive days off. I assume he’ll be back in the lineup on Friday when we start the Mariners series, and hopefully, a couple of days of rest can get him back on track. 

But is Hoerner’s disappointing start a product of “bad luck,” genuinely poor performance, or some combination of both? I think it’s a really interesting concept to dive into, especially given the approach changes it seems Hoerner has made (though the caveat to that, of course, is that it HAS been a small sample size–and the same applies to his results).

One big thing I’d like to mention that makes me think this isn’t a fluke (his approach, that is), is that I recall Boog talking on the broadcast about Hoerner making a concerted effort to draw more walks--something that he has done successfully.

Let's lay out the aforementioned poor results: Hoerner is hitting just .139 (though with a much more palatable .340 OBP) and has a .167 slugging. It comes out to a 68 wRC+. On the other hand, Hoerner is carrying a .167 BABIP on the year, is running a career-high BB%, and has kept his strikeout rate as low as expected, at just 12.8%. It’s unlikely that Hoerner continues scuffling this badly on a macro level. He’s been lauded throughout his career as a guy with a very good hit tool.

But let’s talk about the approach. This season, Hoerner has made some pretty important changes offensively. He cut his Chase% down from 30.5% in 2023 (a mark that sat in just the 36th percentile) to 21.3% (which currently sits in the 80th percentile). He did this while also cutting his In-zone swing% by about 4%. I think this represents a more sustainable profile for him. Whereas Hoerner had made pretty poor swing decisions in the past, there have been some substantial improvements this year.

Last season, he ranked in the 9th percentile in Zone Swing% minus Chase%, and the 32nd percentile in Robert Orr’s swing decision metric SEAGER. This year, he has improved by 5% in Z-O Swing% and has jumped all the way to the 80th percentile in SEAGER. This is a potentially crucial change, and as I mentioned, he has walked 17% of the time this year. His BB/K ratio is top 8 in the league right now, and he hasn’t really sacrificed contact.

The exit velocities are currently slightly down, but I think that kind of stuff takes longer to stabilize than per-pitch metrics like zone swing%, chase%, and SEAGER. Certainly, raw results take longer to stabilize than either batted-ball or plate discipline numbers. SEAGER attempts to measure what percentage of “hittable” pitches you swing at and contrasts it with the number of bad pitches you don’t swing at. Hoerner has done a much better job thus far of swinging at those pitches that he can hit, while taking pitches he can’t hit. That is a very good thing. The results haven’t come yet, but there are signs that great things could be on the way for Hoerner. Taking this next portion with a grain of salt because it has only been 47 plate appearances, Hoerner currently has a career-best xwOBA (at .345), due in large part to these improved swing decisions.

It’s easy to be frustrated and upset by the way things have gone for Hoerner so far, but let's remember a few things.

1. All it takes is a couple of good games for Hoerner to get back on track–it’s so early in the season, still. 
2. Just because it hasn’t worked yet, doesn’t mean it won’t work soon. If the Cubs have identified an area for Hoerner to maximize his capability to produce runs, we should be confident in it, especially when many underlying metrics suggest the early returns are for the better.
3. Walks are good. Hoerner’s former style of play may have been a bit unsustainable. It’s hard to consistently get great results without solid contact or good plate discipline, and Hoerner struggled with both. Plus, there is major evidence to suggest that better player development can help a player maximize their power output–after all, hitting those hittable pitches and not swinging at those unhittable pitches (which, again, is something Hoerner had struggled with), can only help a player’s game.

Results be damned, I like where Hoerner is. It feels like he is seeing the ball well, and perhaps has gotten a bit “unlucky,” so to speak. Having Hoerner as a high-average, high-OBP guy is kind of a scary thought, but with the version of him we are seeing this year, I think it’s within reach. I really think this approach change is a ceiling raiser for the 26-year-old. Don’t give up hope yet. The results will come.