Article: Absorbing and Reacting to MLB Pipeline's Prediction for the 2024 Cubs

[Jason Ross]

On Thursday, MLB Pipeline dropped an article making a prospect prediction for each MLB organization. What did they predict for the Chicago Cubs? And how likely is it to happen?

Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

In a bit of fun off-day content, MLB Pipeline (Major League Baseball's internal prospect ranking team) dropped an article offering a "prospect prediction" for each team. Inside the article were a few fun predictions, such as Jackson Holliday coming up mid-season to take the second base job in Baltimore at just 20 years old, and even some National League Central coming attractions such as Rhett Lowder (Cincinnati) and Termarr Johnson (Pittsburgh) knocking on the doorstep of their parent clubs.

For the Cubs, their prediction consisted of not one, nor two, but three Cub prospects making their MLB debuts this year, in Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton and Matt Shaw. Not stopping there, however, they also predicted all three would be starting for the Cubs when they won their first playoff game since 2017 this October. Obviously this is just a prediction, but let's have some fun and break down whether or not this is likely, and how it would happen.

For this to occur, the Cubs would need a few things to go their way; the first being that all three prospects will need to make it to MLB this season. Luckily for the prediction, there's good reason to believe all three will at least be in Iowa come June. While PCA is already there, the other two had a bit of success in 2023 at Double-A Tennessee, and are just a small step away from joining Pete. For this to all happen, all three would need to be enjoy successful campaigns in Iowa, and with prospects, it's always hard to tell if they'll hit the ground running.

All three have the types of tools that could make quick work of Triple-A competition. Crow-Armstrong is a defensive wizard, Horton has a devastating one-two power fastball-slider combination, and Shaw is a unique blend of power, contact and speed. It's hard to guarantee that, but the skills are there for all three to be successful making this part of the prediction something that feels like it could happen.

Not only would all three prospects need to be doing well in Iowa, there would need to be openings on the Cubs to necessitate bringing them up mid-season and letting them start. Again, lucky for all three prospects, there should be opportunities. Cody Bellinger's ability to play any outfield position and/or first base would allow him to clear space in the middle of the outfield for the speedy center fielder. The Cubs pitching staff is already seeing attrition, which has forced them to call on fellow rookie Ben Brown to go four-plus innings in just his second appearance last night.

Horton will likely get a chance to fill in for some future Cubs pitching injury victim, and take over a rotation spot. For Shaw, third base will be there for the taking if Christopher Morel (who's already made four errors at the hot corner) can't get it together. On this part of the prediction, it, too, feels like something that could really happen.

Lastly, the Chicago Cubs would need to be in a position at the end of the season for them to make the playoffs. Entering the season, projection systems such as PECOTA and FanGraphs's ZiPS had the Cubs as roughly an 84-win team. On the surface, that's not spectacular, but it may be just enough to win a lackluster National League Central division. Jed Hoyer was very frank earlier this spring when he said "It's our job to beat those projections".

While the Central is weak, the Cubs' path to the playoffs remains somewhat tough. With the strength of teams in the West and the East, winning a Wild Card spot will be very difficult. It's likely they have to win the division. Adding high-end prospects such as the three mentioned in the Pipeline prediction, as well as potential trade candidates during the season, will help in that aspect, too. From there, as was evidenced by last season, anything can happen, so making the playoffs would give the Cubs the ability to win that elusive playoff series.

So just how likely is it for the MLB Pipeline prediction that these three will not only be starting, but help the Cubs win a playoff series in October? It's not that crazy, all things considered. All three are highly-regarded prospects, will be one step away from the big leagues very soon, and will not be blocked by MLB talent. It may take a well-timed injury for them to take the starting position, but it doesn't seem out of the question they could all cement themselves into regular roles fairly immediately.

It's never easy to win a division, but the Cubs are arguably the best positioned of the five teams in the Central. It feels like it's a bit less than a coin-flip to actually happen, but even considering the number of things that need to go right for their prediction to hit, it feels like a prediction grounded in reality. If the Cubs' prediction ends up coming to fruition, everyone involved is going to be quite happy about the future of the franchise. The Future 2.0, one might say, would be very bright.

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What do you think of the MLB Pipeline Prediction? Do you think it's likely? Let us know in the comment section below!

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