Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: Left Field

[Brandon Glick]

With Ian Happ entrenched as the starter in left field, do the 2024 Chicago Cubs have the necessary reinforcements to help him make it through the trials and tribulations of a 162-game schedule?

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Ian Happ has been the Cubs’ everyday starter in left field since mid-2021. He’s posted an above-average OPS+ in every season of his career, and his OPS has never fallen below .750. He’s as consistent as they come at the plate, and he’s improved dramatically as a switch-hitter over the last few seasons. In his career, Happ bats .244 as a righty, and .250 as a lefty. 

• 2021: 148 G, 465 ABs, .226/.323/.434, 103 OPS+, 1.7 WAR, -2 DRS

• 2022: 158 G, 573 ABs, .271/.342/.440, 117 OPS+, 4.4 WAR, 14 DRS

• 2023: 158 G, 580 ABs, .248/.360/.431, 112 OPS+, 3.0 WAR, 2 DRS

Happ has just two hits in 22 at-bats in the Cactus League this year, but fretting over his slow start isn’t worth our time. He’s been on the mend from a hamstring injury that manager Craig Counsell said won’t impact his status for Opening Day, and he returned to the lineup over the weekend looking fresh. And, for what it’s worth, Happ has a history of turning bad Spring Training performances into strong regular seasons: in 2022, he batted .190 in Arizona, and went on to earn his first All Star appearance a few months later.

Beyond his impact at the plate, Happ has also turned himself into a premier defender. Though left field isn’t as demanding a position as most of the others on the diamond, Happ posted a career-high 14 Defensive Runs Saved in 2022 before following it up with a 2 DRS season last year. In both years, he was awarded with the NL Gold Glove Award for left fielders.

Happ still presents some of the defensive versatility that defined his prospect profile, but the Cubs appear content to keep him stationed out in left field next to a pair of strong defenders, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. The North Siders’ rotation this year, once again, is made up of hurlers who adopt a “pitch to contact” approach, and most of the starters are particularly adept at coaxing fly balls out of opposing hitters. Having a strong outfield defense is paramount to making the entire run-prevention operation work this year, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a better trio of gloves than the Cubs will run out beyond the infield on a daily basis.

Happ’s strongest skill remains his on-base percentage. Last season, Happ finished first among all Cubs who had at least 350 at-bats with a .360 OBP, which followed up his second-place finish in 2022 (behind only Willson Contreras). Thanks to his blend of power and patience, he can be a credible option almost anywhere in the lineup, though Counsell has gone on record saying that Happ will bat ahead of the Cubs’ sluggers, namely Bellinger and Christopher Morel. It remains to be seen if that sticks for all of 2024, but No. 8 lengthens the lineup from any spot just by working counts and making pitchers labor during his plate appearances.

Beyond Happ, the Cubs have Mike Tauchman currently slated as the fourth outfielder. He’s played 60-plus career games in each of the three outfield spots, including 134 in left field, his most of any position. He was worth 2.1 WAR in 401 plate appearances last year, including a perfectly average 100 OPS+. Tauchman is at his best as a reserve outfielder who can fill in at any of the three outfield spots on any given day, though he did fill in admirably in center field for Cody Bellinger in the middle of last season after Bellinger suffered a knee injury. 

The Cubs also have Miles Mastrobuoni and Morel, who are capable of playing the outfield corners in a pinch. Non-roster invitee David Peralta, who has appeared in 854 career games in left field, could be a quick Band-Aid in the event that Happ can’t gut it out for a few days. Even Garrett Cooper, who locked down the final bench spot on the Opening Day roster following Patrick Wisdom’s injury, has played 615 innings in the corners of the outfield. 

Nevertheless, should Happ be forced to miss significant time, the Cubs’ best bet for reinforcements lies in their farm system. Pete Crow-Armstrong is knocking on the door of Wrigley Field, and his arrival in the majors could push Bellinger to left field if the Cubs want to keep PCA’s speed and glove in center field. Also at Triple-A Iowa are Alexander Canario and Brennen Davis, who each have experience in left field and come equipped with very strong throwing arms.

The 2024 Chicago Cubs will rely on Ian Happ to be a consistent contributor at the plate and in the field. He’s an on-base machine who’s capable of hitting well from both sides of the plate, and he also happens to be the National League’s reigning two-time Gold Glover in left field. That kind of presence might be hard to replace in an extended absence, but the Cubs are surprisingly well-equipped to handle a Happ-less period. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, anyway.

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[CubinNY]

I like that chart a lot. 

[Brandon Glick]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I like that chart a lot. 

It's amazing how much of a "high-floor" player Happ is. Even some of his worst traits are 50th percentile. He's, as Joe Maddon would say, a "pro's pro".

[Derek_Lee_Truther]

You really think PCA would push Bellinger over to left? I'd imagine he goes right to first base when that happens

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

You really think PCA would push Bellinger over to left? I'd imagine he goes right to first base when that happens

Not if Busch is playing well. Sure, Bellinger would play the corner if Busch handled first and PCA forced his was to center.

[Brandon Glick]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not if Busch is playing well. Sure, Bellinger would play the corner if Busch handled first and PCA forced his was to center.

My thoughts exactly. If Busch stinks (or Morel can't handle third, pushing Busch back there), Belli is the obvious next guy up at 1B. But for now, my guess would be Bellinger handling LF in the short-term if Happ is out.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

It's amazing how much of a "high-floor" player Happ is. Even some of his worst traits are 50th percentile. He's, as Joe Maddon would say, a "pro's pro".

And yet, Happ seems to be a guy a lot of fans want to replace. His WAR his last 2 years was a total of 7.4. Average of 3.7. That is a star. 

[Brandon Glick]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

And yet, Happ seems to be a guy a lot of fans want to replace. His WAR his last 2 years was a total of 7.4. Average of 3.7. That is a star. 

100%. Having those 2-4 WAR guys with super high floors is a very valuable thing. The Cubs' issue that most of their roster is filled with those kinds of guys rather than the Betts/Freeman/Ohtani level of star, but there's no reason to see Happ as anything other a valuable piece of the team.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Brandon Glick said:

100%. Having those 2-4 WAR guys with super high floors is a very valuable thing. The Cubs' issue that most of their roster is filled with those kinds of guys rather than the Betts/Freeman/Ohtani level of star, but there's no reason to see Happ as anything other a valuable piece of the team.

And Happ is more like a 3-4 WAR. I can see if he had a 2.0 WAR last year. But he didn’t. It was a solid 3. He isn’t that power hitter some thought he would be. But he is a high OBP guy with enough pop in the bat. He also made himself into a solid left fielder.

[Bull]

Is that arm strength positionally adjusted? Is that 53rd percentile among left fielders or all MLers? 

He came up as a middle infielder. Any chance he could handle third and send Morel to LF if the Morel-at-third experiment fails. I know you don't typically do that to a veteran or to your player rep, but how much would that increase his value!?

[Brandon Glick]

Just now, Bull said:

Is that arm strength positionally adjusted? Is that 53rd percentile among left fielders or all MLers? 

He came up as a middle infielder. Any chance he could handle third and send Morel to LF if the Morel-at-third experiment fails. I know you don't typically do that to a veteran or to your player rep, but how much would that increase his value!?

Happ actually played a touch of third base in college and high school, so this idea isn't totally out of left field (pun completely intended). I have a very hard time believing the Cubs would sacrifice a Gold Glove at one spot just to get average play at two spots (assuming Morel can even handle LF on a full time basis), but part of Happ's prospect profile was his versatility. I think it would take a lot of things going wrong at 3B to see Happ there though.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

Happ actually played a touch of third base in college and high school, so this idea isn't totally out of left field (pun completely intended). I have a very hard time believing the Cubs would sacrifice a Gold Glove at one spot just to get average play at two spots (assuming Morel can even handle LF on a full time basis), but part of Happ's prospect profile was his versatility. I think it would take a lot of things going wrong at 3B to see Happ there though.

Happ isn’t going to play 3rd. He is the left fielder. I don’t understand why his arm strength is coming into the discussion. If he is in the 53 percentile isn’t that basically an average arm? If the worst thing he does is league average why are we looking to change his position. 

Edited March 28, 2024 by Rcal10

[Brandon Glick]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Happ isn’t going to play 3rd. He is the left fielder. I don’t understand why his arm strength is coming into the discussion. If he is in the 53 percentile isn’t that basically an average arm? If the worst thing he does is league average why are we looking to change his position. 

I think the question was asked in the case of an "all hell breaks loose" emergency. If things go even 1% according to plan this year, Happ will be the left fielder. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Brandon Glick said:

I think the question was asked in the case of an "all hell breaks loose" emergency. If things go even 1% according to plan this year, Happ will be the left fielder. 

Actually the question was if Morel couldn’t handle 3rd would the Cubs consider moving Happ to 3rd and Morel to left. And would that help the  ins because of Happ’s “supposed” noodle arm. That is far from an “all hell breaks lose” scenerio. And the answer still is there is no way Happ plays 3rd with Morel moving to left.