Article: Crafting the Perfect Lineup: Optimizing the Chicago Cubs' Batting Order Against RHP

[Sean Chapin]

New Cubs manager Craig Counsell is known for getting the most out of his 26-man roster. Let's look at how the Cubs might deploy their hitters against right-handed pitching in 2024.

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs' regular lineup is firmly established, leaving Craig Counsell to determine the optimal batting order. This decision sparks heated debates among baseball fans, but several key data points and variables can guide Counsell in crafting the 2024 Chicago Cubs' lineup. Let's delve into each player's stats and rationale for their placement in the lineup, considering matchups, on-base percentage (OBP), speed, power, and production.

Against Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (RHP)

1. Nico Hoerner 

• Matchups: Hoerner boasts a .276 batting average and a .720 OPS against RHP.
• OBP: With a .340 OBP, he's well-suited for the lead-off spot.
• Speed: His 43 stolen bases last season solidified his position at the top of the lineup.
• Power: While not a power hitter, his consistency and on-base skills make him ideal for the leadoff role.
• Production: Hoerner's performance batting first (.282/.325/.389) in the previous season validates his placement.
• Conclusion: His adeptness in maintaining a high average and OBP and being a stolen base threat make him ideally suited at the top of the lineup against right-handed starting pitchers. His impressive batting slash line when leading off is the icing on the cake.

2. Cody Bellinger

• Matchups: Bellinger thrived against RHP with a .291 average and an .830 OPS in 2023.
• OBP: His .341 OBP against RHP supports his placement in the second spot.
• Speed: With 20 stolen bases last season, he adds a dynamic element to the lineup.
• Power: Bellinger's 16 homers against RHP further justify his position.
• Production: As the Cubs' best hitter in 2023, he's well-suited for a top-three spot.
• Conclusion: Bellinger's all-around skills make him an excellent fit in the second slot, ensuring the most at-bats per game.

3. Seiya Suzuki 

• Matchups: Suzuki excelled against RHP with a .278 batting average and an .838 OPS.
• OBP: With a career OBP of .338 against RHP, he's a valuable asset in the third spot.
• Speed: Not a stolen base threat.
• Power: His 20 homers overall, including 17 against RHP, underscore his offensive capabilities.
• Production: Despite modest numbers batting third previously (.221 average with a .601 OPS in 35 games), Suzuki's potential warrants this spot.
• Conclusion: Suzuki's emerging talent and production make him a strong candidate for the third spot, sandwiched between Bellinger and Morel.

4. Christopher Morel 

• Matchups: Morel holds a career .249 average with a .791 OPS against RHP.
• OBP: His .311 OBP may not be ideal for the top spots, but his power justifies his placement.
• Speed: While not a prolific base stealer, he focuses more on power-hitting.
• Power: With 26 homers last season, including 19 against RHP, Morel provides a potent middle-of-the-order presence.
• Production: With a slash line of .304/.344/.571, this supports his role in the cleanup spot.
• Conclusion: Morel's power and RBI potential make him well-suited for the cleanup role, where he will drive in runs behind Suzuki.

5. Ian Happ

• Matchup: Happ owns a .251 batting average with an .826 OPS against RHP.
• OBP: His .344 OBP suggests a place higher in the lineup, but his power and production justify his spot.
• Speed: With 14 stolen bases last season, he adds a dimension of speed to the middle of the order.
• Power: Happ's 16 homers against RHP in 2023 highlights the damage he can provide.
• Production: His success batting fifth, with a .250/.361/.512 slash line, supports his placement.
• Conclusion: Despite a higher OBP, Happ's power and past success in the fifth spot make him an ideal choice.

6. Dansby Swanson

• Matchup: Swanson boasts a .253 average and a .733 OPS against RHP.
• OBP: While not elite, his .322 OBP confirms his place in the bottom half of the lineup.
• Speed: Swanson's speed isn't a major factor, but his power and hitting ability compensate.
• Power: With 22+ homers in the past three seasons, he adds pop to the lower part of the order.
• Production: Swanson's consistent numbers throughout the lineup, particularly with a .798 OPS batting sixth, support his placement.
• Conclusion: Swanson's power potential and consistency make him a valuable asset in the sixth spot, providing additional run production.

7. Michael Busch (Minor League Stats)

• Matchup: Busch's impressive numbers against RHP (.337 BA, 1.153 OPS) make him a promising prospect.
• OBP: A career .390 OBP in the minors suggests he could excel in the top half of the lineup.
• Speed: Stolen bases do not significantly impact his game.
• Power: Busch poses a significant threat with 27 homers against RHP last season.
• Production: His success batting second or third in the minors supports his potential in hitting there in the majors.
• Conclusion: While unproven at the major league level, Busch's minor league success warrants a higher spot in the lineup, although I have him hitting 7th to ease his transition.

8. Yan Gomes/Miguel Amaya 

• Matchup: Gomes has a .234 average and a .670 OPS against RHP, while Amaya's numbers are less impressive, with a .184 average and a .679 OPS.
• OBP: Neither catcher boasts a particularly high OBP, suggesting they belong at the bottom of the lineup.
• Speed: Limited stolen base potential.
• Power: Gomes provided more power with ten homers last season. Amaya had five.
• Production: Gomes's career numbers hitting eighth (.258 average, .739 OPS in 310 games) support his placement in the lineup. Amaya's sample size is so small it does not impact the placement.
• Conclusion: The catching tandem's lack of offensive prowess places them in the bottom two spots of the lineup.

9. Mike Tauchmann 

• Matchup: Tauchman's career numbers against RHP include a .235 average and a .717 OPS.
• OBP: His robust .365 OBP last season supports his placement higher in the lineup.
• Speed: With seven steals last season, he adds a hint of speed to the bottom of the lineup.
• Power: Eight homers last season highlight his ability to contribute offensively.
• Production: Tauchman's success batting ninth, with a .282/.372/.527 slash line, makes him an ideal choice.
• Conclusion: Tauchman's high OBP and production from the ninth spot solidify his place in the lineup.

Analyzing each of the six categories outlined equips Craig Counsell and the Cubs with the necessary insights to navigate these challenging lineup decisions. While I acknowledge the fluid nature of roster construction, potential injuries, and other variables, these proposed lineups represent the most effective configurations for the 2024 Chicago Cubs.

View full article

[Bertz]

I'm not a big lineup guy in general, and I think with this roster it's even less important than most teams.  You've got, setting aside catcher, 7-8 spots each day that are going to be filled by hitters projecting from average to pretty good.  Unless Suzuki's 2nd half carries over there are no star level hitters, but at the same time there's no spot you really worry about either.  Even catcher looks to be above average by the lowly standards of the position.

So when I look at the lineup, I look at it more in terms of wanting to balance strengths and weaknesses throughout to prevent pitchers from having pockets where they can breeze through.  Some things I'm mindful of

- On days where Wisdom and Morel both play they need to be separated.  Both guys are very susceptible to pitchers who work north/south, particularly with big velocity.  Swanson isn't vulnerable to the high fastball, but as a RHH with big swing and miss in the zone I also don't love him back to back with either of Wisdom/Morel

- Similarly you want Hoerner and Madrigal to be separated when they're both in the lineup.  I like interspersing them with the low contact guys.  E.g. a pocket of Morel-Hoerner-Swanson

- Happ has fits and spurts of being effective against lefties but mostly he's not.  Same with Bellinger.  So you probably don't want to do something like Bellinger-Happ-Busch because Happ doesn't really break up the lefties

- Suzuki, Busch, and Tauchman are all guys who walk a fine line between patient and passive.  So again guys you don't want to pocket together

Ultimately I really like the lineup Counsell appears to be settling on.  The nit I'd pick is that at I would either swap Bellinger and Morel at 3/4 or move Hoerner up to 5th to separate Morel and Swanson.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm not a big lineup guy in general, and I think with this roster it's even less important than most teams.  You've got, setting aside catcher, 7-8 spots each day that are going to be filled by hitters projecting from average to pretty good.  Unless Suzuki's 2nd half carries over there are no star level hitters, but at the same time there's no spot you really worry about either.  Even catcher looks to be above average by the lowly standards of the position.

So when I look at the lineup, I look at it more in terms of wanting to balance strengths and weaknesses throughout to prevent pitchers from having pockets where they can breeze through.  Some things I'm mindful of

- On days where Wisdom and Morel both play they need to be separated.  Both guys are very susceptible to pitchers who work north/south, particularly with big velocity.  Swanson isn't vulnerable to the high fastball, but as a RHH with big swing and miss in the zone I also don't love him back to back with either of Wisdom/Morel

- Similarly you want Hoerner and Madrigal to be separated when they're both in the lineup.  I like interspersing them with the low contact guys.  E.g. a pocket of Morel-Hoerner-Swanson

- Happ has fits and spurts of being effective against lefties but mostly he's not.  Same with Bellinger.  So you probably don't want to do something like Bellinger-Happ-Busch because Happ doesn't really break up the lefties

- Suzuki, Busch, and Tauchman are all guys who walk a fine line between patient and passive.  So again guys you don't want to pocket together

Ultimately I really like the lineup Counsell appears to be settling on.  The nit I'd pick is that at I would either swap Bellinger and Morel at 3/4 or move Hoerner up to 5th to separate Morel and Swanson.

What is the line up Counsell seems to have settled on? I know Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger and Morel. But what does the rest look like? Is Tauchman in the line up against righties? 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

What is the line up Counsell seems to have settled on? I know Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger and Morel. But what does the rest look like? Is Tauchman in the line up against righties? 

They don't have any other LHB on the bench besides Tauchman and Mastro so I assume Tauchman is in the lineup vs RHP.

Smith was a guy, Mervis and eventually maybe Peralta remain as LHB bench options

[Rob]

23 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They don't have any other LHB on the bench besides Tauchman and Mastro so I assume Tauchman is in the lineup vs RHP.

Smith was a guy, Mervis and eventually maybe Peralta remain as LHB bench options

Yeah, it's precisely why I preferred Smith over Cooper. Oh well. Not like either one of them was likely to be much of a positive factor.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

What is the line up Counsell seems to have settled on? I know Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger and Morel. But what does the rest look like? Is Tauchman in the line up against righties? 

Happ

Seiya

Bellinger

Morel

Swanson

Busch

Hoerner

DH/Bench guy du jour

Gomes/Amaya

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Happ

Seiya

Bellinger

Morel

Swanson

Busch

Hoerner

DH/Bench guy du jour

Gomes/Amaya

Thanks. I like that line up. There are other options, but that is as good as any, I suppose.