Article: Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the 2024 Cincinnati Reds

[Matthew Trueblood]

In this final week before Opening Day, let's take a moment to preview the 2024 season for the Chicago Cubs' rivals. Today, it's the upstart Cincinnati Reds under the spotlight.

Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

At various points throughout the 2023 season, I posited that the Cincinnati Reds would be the first Major League Baseball team to reach the postseason on vibes alone. Coming out of a lengthy rebuild (with a brief, half-hearted, COVID-ruined attempt at contention mixed in there), the arrival of multiple high-end prospects had the Reds’ stock on the rise. Ultimately, they ended up only one game worse than the Cubs, with an 82-80 finish. It didn’t result in a playoff spot, though, as they finished 10 games out of the division race and two back of the wild card.

While they didn't make a postseason appearance last year, the 20-game improvement does leave plenty of room for optimism in the Queen City. They ranked fourth in the National League in ISO (.170) and eighth in collective wRC+ (98). The pitching will need to improve, however. The Reds were third-worst in the NL in ERA (3.83), which was largely due to a shallow starting group (5.43 ERA). One imagines that a full season of the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain could boost the offense, while additions Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán, and Brent Suter could improve the pitching outcomes. They’re not division favorites, but they’re very much in the mix.

Projected Record: 79-83 (FanGraphs), 78-84 (Baseball Prospectus)
Key Additions:

• Jeimer Candelario

• Frankie Montas

• Nick Martinez

• Brent Suter

• Emilio Pagán

Key Subtractions:

• Joey Votto

• Nick Senzel

• Harrison Bader

• Curt Casali

• Derek Law

Projected Opening Day Lineup:

• 😄 Tyler Stephenson

• 1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand

• 2B: Matt McLain

• SS: Elly De La Cruz

• 3B: Jeimer Candelario

• LF: Spencer Steer

• CF: TJ Friedl

• RF: Will Benson

• DH: Jonathan India

Projected Opening Day Pitching Staff:
Starting Pitchers

• Hunter Greene

• Graham Ashcraft

• Frankie Montas

• Andrew Abbott

• Nick Martinez
   

Bullpen

• Lucas Sims (Setup)

• Emilio Pagán (Setup)

• Brent Suter (Setup)

• Alexis Díaz (Closer)

Scouting Report
The Reds’ cumulative .327 on-base percentage ranked 10th in MLB in 2023. Their 190 steals were the top number (24 more than the next-closest team). So the first thing you need to know about this squad is that they create traffic, then havoc. De La Cruz alone swiped 35 bags in only 98 games. McLain had a season of 27 in Double-A in 2022. Steer and India even combined for 29 last year. You’re going to see a lot of movement from this team.

As far as their power profile goes, the .170 ISO was obviously one of the better figures in the bigs (11th overall), but it’s not necessarily over-the-fence pop, as their 198 homers sat 14th. There’s gap power and there’s speed. It’s a tough matchup for any staff to deal with.

Where the Reds’ struggles could manifest is on the bump. Health was an issue, even more so than performance. Cincinnati used 17 different starters last year, with Ashcraft’s 26 pacing the group. Ashcraft and Greene – two of the projected stalwarts in a high-upside rotation – each missed time. Nick Lodolo – the other of that group – missed almost the entire year. When healthy, it’s a group with a sky-high ceiling.

Greene as the ace & Ashcraft, Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott behind him is a group that could be the envy of most of baseball. But given the health concerns, it’s hard to put too much faith in that coming to fruition. That's why the team added Montas and Martinez. The aim is to give them more innings on the front end and take some pressure off what should be a formidable bullpen. Martinez may end up in a swing role, but it’s one he played well in San Diego.

Suter and Pagán, while each past their prime, offer rubber-armed reliability in the relief mix. With that pair in tow next to Sims and Alexis Díaz, there’s a lot of stability for Cincinnati late in games. Their middle-relief corps offers volume, too. Sam Moll, Ian Gibaut, Tejay Antone, and Buck Farmer are just a few names in a group that runs deep. So even if the Reds continue to struggle on the mound, it won’t be because they didn’t attempt to avoid it. 

Ultimately, this roster will rely very heavily on upside. Both the offense and pitching present a great deal of it, but growing pains will also be part of all of this. If there’s a troubling aspect for an exciting club such as this, it’s that the NL Central does boast some of the beefier farm systems in all of baseball. So while they may have the most talent arriving at the top stage at present, the other squads aren’t going to be too far behind.

One Big Question: How will David Bell configure the lineup?
It’s not so much about the batting order as it is the players on the field. In declining his option, the Reds let Joey Votto walk and essentially announced Encarnacion-Strand as their starting first baseman, leaving Noelvi Marte on the opposite corner. Things became more complicated, though, as they signed Jeimer Candelario in free agency. With those three, in conjunction with McLain, De La Cruz, Steer, and India, the Reds essentially have seven players for five spots.

Marte’s PED suspension clarifies things a bit, at least. The only worse way to get greater clarity is injury, and McClain has a still-nebulous shoulder problem that is doing just that. From the jump, Cincinnati will roll out a group that features Encarnacion-Strand at first, De La Cruz at short, and Candelario at third. Steer and India could be mixed in at first, second, or third, when not serving as the team’s DH. Upon Marte’s and McClain's return, however, it’s going to be fascinating to watch how Bell manages his group. Injuries happen. Poor performance happens. Suspensions – apparently – happen. But if this group is fully healthy and performing well, it’s going to be quite a murky setup for the man on the bench to handle daily.

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The Reds aren't the Cubs' biggest threat in the NL Central this year. They are, however, an interesting and competitive team. The head-to-head matchups between these two could go a long way to determining which (if either) makes it over the hump and into October this time.

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[Bertz]

The Reds are getting absolutely crushed by injuries (and a PED suspension) this spring.  That said they're actually the central team that scares me the most.  I think if they can weather these injuries that's a potentially special position player group.  Their pitching was pretty bad last year and they didn't add much this winter, but as you mentioned there is a ton of upside on that staff.

I think you probably expect some of that upside to manifest and some of it to blow up on them and the team to settle in around .500.  But I think between the Reds, the Cardinals, and the Brewers the Reds are easily the most likely to clear 90 wins.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Reds won 82 games last year and that will probably be the high water mark for this wave of young players.  They have no truly elite talents to raise their ceiling/hedge against regression, have not nearly enough pitching certainty or depth, and will not spend to increase their floor on either side of the ball.  They’re significantly more likely to finish last than 1st in the division.

[CubinNY]

McClain is now out and may be done for the season. I'm more worried about the Burgh than I am about the Reds (right now). This division is the Cubs to win. But somehow through devil magic the Cardinals are going to win 93 games