Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: Second Base

[Jason Ross]

If shortstop is the most settled position the Chicago Cubs have entering the 2024 season, it's likely that second base follows closely behind. Nico Hoerner will hold things down most of the time, but what does the rest of the position look like--and what might the Cubs do in the event of an injury?

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Strength and stability up the middle are the Cubs' greatest points of pride entering 2024. For at least another few years, they want Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner working the double-play pivot, and they expect big value from each.

The Starter: Nico Hoerner
2023 Stats: 7.1% BB%, 12.1% K%, .283/.346/.383, 102 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS: 6.6 BB%, 12.0% K%, .276/.335/.393, 99 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR
Scouting Report: On the surface, Hoerner can feel almost ho-hum at times. He’s a great defender, he makes a ton of contact, but he doesn't do it all that loudly, on the stat page. For example, I know he had a great 2023 season, and yet I forgot he finished just shy of the 5-win mark, according to WAR. That put Hoerner just outside of the top-20 most valuable position players in baseball.

The good news for the Cubs is that there is very little in Hoerner’s profile that suggests this won’t continue for the 2024 campaign. ZiPS thinks that Hoerner should continue on his 4+ win path, and I have to agree. While Hoerner isn’t going to wow us with his power, he should make a lot of contact and play great defense. He's a terror on the bases, too, which only drives his value higher. There's even hope for more sustained, well-rounded offense from him in 2024, as our own Matthew Trueblood wrote about in January.

If there is any real concern over Hoerner, it's that he’s had some injury issues in the past, spending time on the IL in every season prior to 2023. With that being the only concern, the Cubs should rest easy for the time in which Hoerner is going to be in the lineup. 

Other Options: Nico is the unquestioned starting option at second base for the Cubs. Coming off back-to-back 4+ fWAR seasons, the slick-fielding Horner will start most of the games at the position. Despite that, the Cubs have built up a pretty impressive group of players behind Hoerner who could fill in for a rest day, or a dreaded trip to the IL.

For most off days, the Cubs could turn to one of three players projected to make the Opening Day roster; Christopher Morel, Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni. All three of these players are likely in line for starts at third, but will also be available to shift to second. Each offers a slightly different skill set, so who gets the start could rely on what the team needs; Morel provides power, Madrigal brings bat-to-ball skills, and Mastrobuoni has a good plate approach. All three, as well, could fill in for a short-term IL stint. 

While not an option at the start of the 2024 campaign, Matt Shaw could also factor into the position. Shaw has been focusing on learning and honing his abilities at third, but much like the other three players mentioned, he may be more of a natural option at second, if needed. It would take a few things for the Cubs to end up needing Shaw at the keystone (a long-term injury to Hoerner in the second half of the season, coupled with a strong first half of the season for Shaw in Iowa, for starters), but it’s on the table.

The Big Question: What do the Cubs do if Nico needs an extended IL stint?
Despite playing in 150 games last season, Hoerner has had a penchant for ending up on the IL throughout his professional career. He’s had broken bones, as well as soft-tissue injuries, so it’s likely that Hoerner will land on the IL at some point during the season. It’s never easy to replace a player who’s put up back-to-back four-win seasons, but the Cubs would be in a unique position to replace him with quantity or quality, depending on the length of the absence. 

The Cubs are in great shape at second base. They have a young, energetic, balanced star at the position, and a number of alternatives on whom to call if that star goes down. In a spring filled with uncertainty, this is one area of comfortable clarity.

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[Guest234]

How well does David Bote have to hit to be considered?

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Guest234 said:

How well does David Bote have to hit to be considered?

Probably at a level so well that it's impossible. He's over 30, so anything he does in Triple-A (or Spring Training) will be rightly met with tons of skepticism. He's been in Triple-A too long, and he's too old, for him to really do anything that matters there numbers wise. He's also not on the 40-man roster, and the Cubs have plenty of players on the 40-man who can handle the position: Hoerner, Madrigal, Morel, Mastroburni will be on the OD roster. Even Michael Busch could be an option there. There would likely have to be a massive rash of injury, and the Cubs would have to be comfortable enough to lose someone off the 40-man just to bring him up, which I can't see happening with how little they have vested in him moving forward.

Bote's best bet is likely that he is traded to another organization who gets nailed with injuries. I don't know if a team would take that plunge without the Cubs eating a few million as is, but I think that's his best path to an MLB roster in 2024.

[squally1313]

Not to derail this conversation, but does anyone see Dansby or Nico at third base in the future if we get to a point where Morel or Shaw absolutely have to be in the line up and are also pretty unplayable at third? I guess I'm not sure if that's just moving the problem around or if there are legit skills that play at second that don't translate to third. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Not to derail this conversation, but does anyone see Dansby or Nico at third base in the future if we get to a point where Morel or Shaw absolutely have to be in the line up and are also pretty unplayable at third? I guess I'm not sure if that's just moving the problem around or if there are legit skills that play at second that don't translate to third. 

Two years ago I'd say that neither Swanson nor Hoerrner had the arm strength to make that work, but the Cubs have gotten plus defensive work out of Hoerner at SS and Madrigal at 3b (and Swanson has had plus defensive work at SS) with weak-rated-arm-strength...and my mind has switched because clearly I was wrong. I think the Cubs will likely make the best infield work, however that looks. I'd guess Hoerner to 3b and Shaw to 2b would be most likely (as I think Swanson is just too good at SS right now, and Shaw won't be capable of playing SS) if that were the route they wanted to go...but I have a feeling they'll do whatever gets their three best infielders in the lineup as much as possible.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I suspect there will be enough at bats to go around at 1B/DH or even LF without needing to move Nico/Dansby.  But I can squint and see a world where DH playing time isn't so wide open, and one of those guys is so undeniable with the bat that you move Nico to 3B for the last 12-18 months of his deal.  Maybe I'm just leaning into the mystery box angle with prospects, but this feels more likely with Shaw, both for timeline reasons(I don't see this happening in 2024) and because he hasn't completely shut the door on being baby Bregman with the bat while Morel probably can't cut down on whiff enough to consistently challenge a 130 wRC+.