Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: First Base

[Jason Ross]

The Chicago Cubs have struggled to lock down first base ever since the departure of Anthony Rizzo. Have they finally solved the position long-term with the addition of Michael Busch? Or is Cody Bellinger going to spend much of the coming campaign at the cold corner?

Image courtesy of © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Even before bringing back Cody Bellinger on a deal lasting anywhere from one year to three, the Cubs made a bold move aimed at shoring up first base, acquiring Michael Busch in a four-player trade with the Dodgers.

The Starter: Michael Busch
2023 Stats: 9.9% BB%, 33.3% K%, .167/.247/.292, 49 wRC+, -.5 fWAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS: 9.8 BB%, 25.6% K%, .251/.336/.453 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Scouting Report: While he will likely see some time at other positions throughout the year, the Cubs have signaled that Busch will likely be the team’s first baseman for most of the season (at least to start). The former Dodger may see time at second and third here or there, but first seems like his home. Busch struggled at times in 2023 in his first run at the MLB level, but the industry remains fairly high on him, with consensus rankings in the top 100 and a top-50 ranking by both MLB.com and Baseball America. 

Busch has an impressive combination of bat-to-ball and power skills, which means even if he’s “only” a first baseman, he has enough tools in his shed to be an above-average bat at an offensive driven position. Approach-wise, he’s patient, almost to a fault, forcing pitchers to come into the zone. Traditionally, Busch does not have terrible platoon splits in the minor leagues, and really feasts on fastballs. The best development in his game from a somewhat lackluster 2022 to 2023 was Busch’s ability to make adjustments and get around on high-velocity fastballs. As the Cubs ranked in the bottom-10 last season against fastballs in general, a fastball-feasting Busch would seem to fit right in.  I wrote more in depth about what we can expect to see from him in 2024 in another article, which goes into a lot of the improvements that Busch made, and just why I'm so excited about him.

Other Options: Bringing back Bellinger has made the Cubs positively awash in good alternatives to Busch. While the slight lean right now must be toward Bellinger starting the season in center field, it's not hard to envision Pete Crow-Armstrong forcing the issue and Bellinger ending up spending time at first, with Busch shuttled to the DH spot.

Meanwhile, a player like Patrick Wisdom goes from an iffy platoon option and first fallback plan to an enviable secondary fallback guy. The Cubs also have another young player in Matt Mervis on the 40-man roster who could step in if needed. While both Mervis and Busch struggled in their initial stints in the show, I have much more confidence in Busch. I also wrote, recently, about Mervis and his second-half-2023 struggles. Long story short: the swing decisions got worse with time, and that’s just not good.

Could Christopher Morel provide coverage at first? Earlier in the offseason, the Cubs spoke about giving the powerful right-handed hitter some looks at first. Morel’s position is in flux, and the Cubs are clearly looking for a way to get his thump into the lineup when they can. While he’s more likely to see time at the designated hitter position, there’s a chance that the Cubs will give Busch some time at third, or that Morel will take to the first base position, and could see time here. At the moment, he seems to be in the driver's seat for the third-base gig, instead.

The Big Question: Is Busch the answer at first base? 
The Cubs didn’t get Busch for free, and had to part with two pretty interesting prospects to get him in Jackson Feris (whom Northside Baseball ranked their ninth-best prospect in the fall) and Zyhir Hope, a relatively big-money 11th-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. This would both suggest that the Cubs really believe in Busch, but also remind us that the Cubs should hope they have read the situation well.

The good news is that, with Bellinger in the fold, the Cubs have some cover internally if they feel as though they need to pivot. Moving Busch to the DH spot wouldn't be ideal, but platooning him there or at first would be palatable. The Cubs have tremendous depth at first base now, so regardless of how well Busch does, they should have options in 2024. Long-term, however, the Cubs really should be hoping that the former Dodger pans out. If he does, it will be hard to argue that the Cubs didn’t win their end of the trade, getting the first base position locked down for the better half of the next decade, at the very least.

 

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[CubinNY]

Jed has built-in redundancies all over the field, but this is one relatively thin area. They can mix in Wisdom, Bellinger, and perhaps Mervis although this spring he has not shown much so far. If Bush fails mightily this may be a warming spot for Pete Alonso at the trade deadline if the Mets fall out of contention and they can't work out an extension for him. 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Jed has built-in redundancies all over the field, but this is one relatively thin area. They can mix in Wisdom, Bellinger, and perhaps Mervis although this spring he has not shown much so far. If Bush fails mightily this may be a warming spot for Pete Alonso at the trade deadline if the Mets fall out of contention and they can't work out an extension for him. 

I'm not sure I agree with that. The Cubs have Busch, with Bellinger as a fall back once Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready. There's good reason why Busch has been ranked top-50 by a few industry rankings, and it'd be hard pressed to find better coverage than Bellinger. There's options as well internally like Matt Mervis, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom and even Dom Smith has a smear of appeal if the Cubs can find/change something. I'd say most teams don't have as promising as a 1/2 as Busch/Bellinger. Once you get to third in any depth chart, for any position, you start finding questionable options...mostly because if they weren't questionable, they wouldn't be third, ya know?

[Bertz]

I feel very comfortable that the team is not going to have a debacle at 1B like they did last year.  That said I think it is, by a pretty wide margin, the position the Cubs are least likely to get star caliber production out of.

I'd expect a roughly 110 wRC+ out of each of Busch, Wisdom, Morel, and Bellinger if tasked with full time play.  That is adequate production at 1B, and by playing matchups I think you can get the aggregate closer to 120.  It feels very difficult to map out a path to 130+.  Busch is a strong prospect, but that's built much more on floor than ceiling.  Wisdom and Morel would need substantial cut downs in their swing and miss to get there.  And I don't think Cody's going to tank at the plate but he's not going to do what he did last year again (and even if he does he probably spends 70+% of his time in the OF?).

The wildcard to potentially make the above look foolish is Owen Caissie.  Short of like a Kris Bryant/Vladito situation you should rarely expect star caliber offense from a prospect at the jump.  But I do think Caissie coming up in June and hitting the horsefeathers put of the ball is more likely than Busch/Morel/etc. putting up All Star production.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'd expect a roughly 110 wRC+ out of each of Busch, Wisdom, Morel, and Bellinger if tasked with full time play.  That is adequate production at 1B, and by playing matchups I think you can get the aggregate closer to 120.  It feels very difficult to map out a path to 130+.  

As a reference point last year:

1. Rays (172) - just complete and utter Rays black magic, my god
2. Braves (159) - Olson 
3. Dodgers (159) - Freeman

(gigantic gap)

And then there's 8 teams between 127 (Cardinals) and 120 (Oakland, somehow). 19 teams were above average, Cubs were 24th at 92. Just getting up to somewhere around 110 gives us about 1.5 wins over last year. 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I feel very comfortable that the team is not going to have a debacle at 1B like they did last year.  That said I think it is, by a pretty wide margin, the position the Cubs are least likely to get star caliber production out of.

I'd expect a roughly 110 wRC+ out of each of Busch, Wisdom, Morel, and Bellinger if tasked with full time play.  That is adequate production at 1B, and by playing matchups I think you can get the aggregate closer to 120.  It feels very difficult to map out a path to 130+.  Busch is a strong prospect, but that's built much more on floor than ceiling.  Wisdom and Morel would need substantial cut downs in their swing and miss to get there.  And I don't think Cody's going to tank at the plate but he's not going to do what he did last year again (and even if he does he probably spends 70+% of his time in the OF?).

The wildcard to potentially make the above look foolish is Owen Caissie.  Short of like a Kris Bryant/Vladito situation you should rarely expect star caliber offense from a prospect at the jump.  But I do think Caissie coming up in June and hitting the horsefeathers put of the ball is more likely than Busch/Morel/etc. putting up All Star production.

I think most of this is fair. Not sure I think Wisdom is capable of getting near 110 wRC+ in full time (I think in very curated PA's he can get there but given more run, Wisdom tends to fall off, from what I can tell). Morel/Busch feel capable of getting somewhere between 110-120 wRC+ if things go well, though I can see situations where both struggle.

I love some Owen Caissie but still think he's going to be developing come June. His last three levels (Low-A, High-A and Double-A) he's started similarly in all: struggling for the first ~45 days or so, then finding his footing, starting to really take off around July-ish. Excpect Triple-A will really work on hitting him up and in and think we will see a similar pattern. I think he's the best bat in the system up and down, and has the biggest upside, but even I'd be shocked to see him come up in June and tear it up; as much as I don't think Morel or Busch would be All-Stars in 2024, I think that's still a shade more likely.