Article: If an Expansion Draft Happened This Spring, Whom Should the Chicago Cubs Protect?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Expansion in MLB has been a hot topic for the last week or so. If it really became reality, though, what would it mean for the Chicago Cubs roster?

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The last time baseball expanded was in 1998, with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This brought the total of Major League Baseball teams to 30. Similarly, the NBA expanded to 30 teams in 2004 after expanding to 29 in 1995. The NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. The NHL reached 32 teams with expansions in 2000, 2017, and 2021. Since shrinking to 10 teams for the 2002-2004 seasons, Major League Soccer has expanded almost annually and will include 30 teams by 2025.

It’s inevitable. Leagues with 30 teams will add two more franchises (and enormous buy-in fees) sometime soon.

The reasons for expanding, where the franchises will end up, and if it’s necessary can and will be debated into the foreseeable future, but that’s not what this article is about. This is about what expansion means to your favorite team and the role they play in providing players to the new franchises.

THE EXPANSION DRAFT
While the rules could change from what was in place in 1997, they would likely be very similar. In the last edition of the expansion draft, each team was allowed to protect 15 players, while recently drafted players were exempt. If it followed the same rules, teams would essentially be allowed to protect 15 players from the 40-man rosters while all other players would be exempt from the draft.

Players with 10-and-5 rights or no-trade clauses had to be included on the list of 15 players. It should also be noted that we’re looking at this when 40-man rosters are full, whereas an expansion draft would happen in the offseason where free agents and other fringe players wouldn’t be on the roster. (Players who project to be free agents after 2024 don’t need to be protected, with a few limited exceptions.)

Expansion teams would take 15 players in round one (one player from each team), and then each existing team will be allowed to protect three more players. The same process will occur for a second round. At that point, each expansion team will have 30 players and each existing team will have lost two players and protected 21 players. In the 1997 draft, each of the two new teams got to select seven more players, giving them a total of 35. If this draft follows suit, the third round would consist of five American League and five National League teams each losing one more player.

With no further ado, let’s look at an early projection of whom the Cubs would protect and the best players it would leave unprotected.

No-trade clauses: SS Dansby Swanson (1), LF Ian Happ (2), RF Seiya Suzuki (3), RHP Jameson Taillon (4)
The four highest-paid players all possess no-trade clauses. Swanson is owed a ton of money and would probably be too rich for an expansion team, anyway. Happ and Suzuki would be taken if exposed. Taillon, on the other hand, wouldn't be taken and wouldn't be kept if he didn't need to be. But the rules are in place, and these four would automatically make the list.

No brainers: 2B Nico Hoerner (5), LHP Shota Imanaga (6), LHP Justin Steele (7), RHP Adbert Alzolay (8), 1B Michael Busch (9)
This is a great set-up for the Cubs. Two front-end lefty starters, their likely closer and two young, starting infielders.

Prospects: CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (10), OF Kevin Alcántara (11), SP Ben Brown (12)
Another strong group that arguably should be even bigger. In the end, though, you have to weigh keeping a prospect or keeping your guys who are already contributing. These three prospects, however, had to be protected. 

Protected: LHP Jordan Wicks (13), C Miguel Amaya (14), 3B Christopher Morel (15)
This is always going to be the group debated the most, regardless of team. But here's the thing with this group: they are all 24-year-old starters with a ton of team-control left. You could consider these three just as much slam dunks to be kept as anyone else. 

But with these 15, you have a full lineup (if you have the prospect Alcántara at DH), a full rotation (if you have Brown as your fifth starter) and a closer. And you can only lose one guy, before pulling back three, so it's a pretty good spot to be in.

Exposed: RHP Héctor Neris (‘25 club option), LHP Drew Smyly (‘25 mutual option), 3B/1B Patrick Wisdom, 3B/2B Nick Madrigal, RHP Mark Leiter Jr. RHP Julian Merryweather, RHP Yency Almonte, RHP Keegan Thompson, RHP José Cuas, RHP Javier Assad, OF Mike Tauchman, 2B Miles Mastrobuoni, OF Alexander Canario, 1B Matt Mervis, SS Luis Vázquez, OF Brennen Davis, RHP Hayden Wesneski, RHP Caleb Kilian, RHP Porter Hodge, RHP Daniel Palencia, LHP Luke Little, LHP Bailey Horn, RHP Michael Arias
There are a ton of very usable big-league names on this list, and the expansion teams would likely be looking at some of these names to either draft and keep, or draft and trade for more assets. 

Free agents: RHP Kyle Hendricks, C Yan Gomes
In this initial look, three names jump to the top of the list: Michael Arias, who was 1-10 in 2023 between two Class A stops but who has nasty stuff and struck out a ton of opposing batters. Expansion teams have to be patient, and Arias would provide an organization with a high-ceiling pitching prospect. Javier Assad, who joined the Cubs rotation in August and was a godsend, though he didn't strike out a ton of hitters and is likely a back-of-the-rotation guy. Neris would be of little actual interest to an expansion team, but could be selected to flip to another team. An existing team could work out a deal with an expansion team to draft Neris and trade him for a couple of lower-level minor-leaguers. In return, the existing team could protect one fewer reliever (or not pull one back), essentially buying an extra protection spot. It will be the type of draft chicanery that will make the expansion draft oh-so enjoyable!

Prediction: As much as I'm a fan of #expansiondraftchicanery, Arias would be too good to pass up. To add high-upside arms is always difficult--there's a reason he was added to the 40-man roster after only reaching high-A ball--and this would be a great chance for an expansion team to do so. I'm not suggesting he goes first overall, but he would go quickly.

After losing Arias, the Cubs could turn their attention back to protecting Neris and Assad, in addition to the recently acquired Yency Almonte. In the second and/or third round, it would make a lot of sense for an expansion team to target Nick Madrigal or Hayden Wesneski, both of whom could carve out meaningful roles.

Who would you protect? And who do you think you'd be most likely to lose?

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fun thought exercise!  I think my protected list would be almost identical, I'd consider protecting Wesneski instead of Brown but otherwise it's interesting to see spelled out how quickly you run into 'just a guy' territory and not minding if someone was plucked.

I also would be pretty annoyed if my expansion team took Arias. Considering there would be a minor league phase as well you can't waste picks on a guy in A ball that walks too many people and gives up too many runs while going less than 4 IP/GS.  Have to impact the MLB roster with those picks, so the unprotected among Wesneski/Brown/Assad feels like the greatest value.  Depending on other exposed lists I could also see the argument for Canario and mayybe Little.

[CubinNY]

If left off the protected list in the first round I could see a team taking Canario or Mervis right away. 

Some might say, the Cubs dodged a bullet, lol. 

Edited February 23, 2024 by CubinNY

[Rex Buckingham]

I'd say Assad or Canario would be the most likely guys to be picked from the group you left unprotected. Assad has some upside, and would seem a decent bet to give you a good number of solid (if unspectacular) innings. Canario is a high upside play that you would hope with playing time he could tap into his power and become an exciting player fans can get behind