Article: The Two Places Where Cubs Have Greatest Need, According to FanGraphs

[Matthew Trueblood]

The FanGraphs Depth Charts pages can provide a handy snapshot of a team's position-by-position makeup. For the Cubs, right now, it indicates two dire areas of weakness.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

As you would probably guess, the Cubs rank very well at second base, shortstop, and left field, according to FanGraphs's Depth Charts projections. They're fifth at second and in left, powered by Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, respecitvely, and they're seventh at shortstop, thanks to Dansby Swanson. Given that the overall projections have them mired around .500, though, you can probably also guess that there are a couple of major weaknesses pulling against the value of that trio of positions.

Though it's a source of constant stress for many fans, third base isn't among those problems, per se. The Cubs rank in the middle of the pack at the hot corner, in the starting rotation and the bullpen, and in right field, where Seiya Suzuki keeps them just north of the median. The only two positions where the team is firmly in the bottom quartile of the league are catcher and first base.

The latter is no surprise, and it merely reinforces the widely-held desire to see Cody Bellinger come back to the Cubs as a free agent. While the Cubs seem to have acquired Michael Busch with the idea of playing him at the position, and while they clearly believe in him as a long-term answer, these projections are lukewarm on him. The site forecasts a .244/.327/.431 line for Busch, which is a respectable line, but the Cubs would not have paid the price they did for him in trade if they didn't feel confident that he'll run an OBP north of .340.

Busch also only projects for 308 plate appearances. Another 245 PAs at the spot go to Patrick Wisdom, in this projection, and Wisdom is forecasted for .207/.293/.433, a much less appealing return on the investment of playing time. Last month, I wrote about reasons to believe Busch can play every day, but it's clear that FanGraphs is not yet expecting that.

This same projection system pegs Bellinger for a .259/.322/.438 line, so he would be some measure of an upgrade. Obviously, fans who want Bellinger back expect a much better line than that, and so must the Cubs, if they're to give him the kind of deal he's sought all winter. Even taking the projection at face value, though, and baking in Bellinger's superior defense at first, he'd solidify the position and bring them up from 25th to about 15th in projected value. The question is whether the team wants to disenfranchise Busch that way, or whether their new acquisition can find sufficient playing time at first when Bellinger goes back to center field; at third base, where he's a rough but theoretically viable fit; and at designated hitter, without eating too much into Christopher Morel's playing time there.

Less expected, for some, is the fact that the Cubs rank 24th in projected WAR at catcher. Yan Gomes is the primary starter there, with 378 plate appearances at a .248/.294/.385 clip projected. The big problem the Cubs face (be it real or imagined by these projections) is that Gomes is projected for the majority of the playing time despite being projected to be worse than Miguel Amaya. The younger Cubs catcher carries a .226/.324/.382 line, which might still be underwhelming, but those 30 points of OBP matter quite a bit. So, too, does defense, and while Gomes's handling of pitchers has garnered enthusiastic and unanimous acclaim throughout his career, he's no longer good at either pitch framing or controlling the running game. Amaya projects to play better on both sides of the ledger, but also less.

Neither signing Bellinger nor playing Amaya more at Gomes's expense would turn the Cubs into NL Central favorites, let alone threats to the Dodgers (at least in these projections). However, the team already has a few very strong strengths, so if they can shore up their relatively few weaknesses, they would figure to at least match the 83 wins they managed last season. That's a reasonable goal, but it hinges on further action by the front office.

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Would you play Busch or Amaya more than these projections assume, or trust veterans like Bellinger and Gomes to deliver more value than the numbers can capture? Let's weigh the options anew with these new data in mind.

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[Guest234]

The largest negative for the Cubs is a real reticence to commit to anything, the "conservative" approach of ownership directs the hands-on management to do "something" but not over commit and the results are assuring middling results from even a group of talented players. The previous core group is the example here, and the current team certainly lacks their overall talent. 

[Bertz]

I didn't realize how much Fangraphs hated Gomes' framing last year.  He's never been a framing wizard but I feel like that's not something I noticed throughout the year.  I would guess it escalated late in the year when the innings really started piling up?

I mostly feel good about the catcher spot though.  First off I do legitimately believe the Cubs that the soft factors are valuable.  They went out and got Tucker Barnhart last year when Curt Casali and Roberto Perez, an offensive backup catcher and a more throwing/framing oriented defensive one, were both available for similar money or less.  Other smart orgs like the Yankees, Astros, and Rays have also punted on paper catcher improvements over the last few years to run a Pitcher Whisperer behind the plate.  At minimum I believe they believe it and they're not dumb or on an island for doing so.

I like Amaya a lot too.  He looks like an above average hitter, possibly in absolute terms and almost certainlty by catcher standards.  He's already an above average framer as well.  He was a bit noodle armed last year, but I think it's reasonable to think that improves another year out from his TJ surgery. 

I also think having a backup who is not just viable but good likely leads to better load management with Gomes.  He's at an age where he can implode at any time, but giving him more rest maximizes the odds that we continue to get the best version of him.  I'd like to see Gomes and Amaya at closer to a 50/50 split.

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I didn't realize how much Fangraphs hated Gomes' framing last year.  He's never been a framing wizard but I feel like that's not something I noticed throughout the year.  I would guess it escalated late in the year when the innings really started piling up?

I mostly feel good about the catcher spot though.  First off I do legitimately believe the Cubs that the soft factors are valuable.  They went out and got Tucker Barnhart last year when Curt Casali and Roberto Perez, an offensive backup catcher and a more throwing/framing oriented defensive one, were both available for similar money or less.  Other smart orgs like the Yankees, Astros, and Rays have also punted on paper catcher improvements over the last few years to run a Pitcher Whisperer behind the plate.  At minimum I believe they believe it and they're not dumb or on an island for doing so.

I like Amaya a lot too.  He looks like an above average hitter, possibly in absolute terms and almost certainlty by catcher standards.  He's already an above average framer as well.  He was a bit noodle armed last year, but I think it's reasonable to think that improves another year out from his TJ surgery. 

I also think having a backup who is not just viable but good likely leads to better load management with Gomes.  He's at an age where he can implode at any time, but giving him more rest maximizes the odds that we continue to get the best version of him.  I'd like to see Gomes and Amaya at closer to a 50/50 split.

I was kinda shocked to read that Contreras finished 2023 with a 3.4war, considering what trainwreck he was to begin the season.