The Two Places Where Cubs Have Greatest Need, According to FanGraphs

As you would probably guess, the Cubs rank very well at second base, shortstop, and left field, according to FanGraphs's Depth Charts projections. They're fifth at second and in left, powered by Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, respecitvely, and they're seventh at shortstop, thanks to Dansby Swanson. Given that the overall projections have them mired around .500, though, you can probably also guess that there are a couple of major weaknesses pulling against the value of that trio of positions.

Though it's a source of constant stress for many fans, third base isn't among those problems, per se. The Cubs rank in the middle of the pack at the hot corner, in the starting rotation and the bullpen, and in right field, where Seiya Suzuki keeps them just north of the median. The only two positions where the team is firmly in the bottom quartile of the league are catcher and first base.

The latter is no surprise, and it merely reinforces the widely-held desire to see Cody Bellinger come back to the Cubs as a free agent. While the Cubs seem to have acquired Michael Busch with the idea of playing him at the position, and while they clearly believe in him as a long-term answer, these projections are lukewarm on him. The site forecasts a .244/.327/.431 line for Busch, which is a respectable line, but the Cubs would not have paid the price they did for him in trade if they didn't feel confident that he'll run an OBP north of .340.

Busch also only projects for 308 plate appearances. Another 245 PAs at the spot go to Patrick Wisdom, in this projection, and Wisdom is forecasted for .207/.293/.433, a much less appealing return on the investment of playing time. Last month, I wrote about reasons to believe Busch can play every day, but it's clear that FanGraphs is not yet expecting that.

This same projection system pegs Bellinger for a .259/.322/.438 line, so he would be some measure of an upgrade. Obviously, fans who want Bellinger back expect a much better line than that, and so must the Cubs, if they're to give him the kind of deal he's sought all winter. Even taking the projection at face value, though, and baking in Bellinger's superior defense at first, he'd solidify the position and bring them up from 25th to about 15th in projected value. The question is whether the team wants to disenfranchise Busch that way, or whether their new acquisition can find sufficient playing time at first when Bellinger goes back to center field; at third base, where he's a rough but theoretically viable fit; and at designated hitter, without eating too much into Christopher Morel's playing time there.

Less expected, for some, is the fact that the Cubs rank 24th in projected WAR at catcher. Yan Gomes is the primary starter there, with 378 plate appearances at a .248/.294/.385 clip projected. The big problem the Cubs face (be it real or imagined by these projections) is that Gomes is projected for the majority of the playing time despite being projected to be worse than Miguel Amaya. The younger Cubs catcher carries a .226/.324/.382 line, which might still be underwhelming, but those 30 points of OBP matter quite a bit. So, too, does defense, and while Gomes's handling of pitchers has garnered enthusiastic and unanimous acclaim throughout his career, he's no longer good at either pitch framing or controlling the running game. Amaya projects to play better on both sides of the ledger, but also less.

Neither signing Bellinger nor playing Amaya more at Gomes's expense would turn the Cubs into NL Central favorites, let alone threats to the Dodgers (at least in these projections). However, the team already has a few very strong strengths, so if they can shore up their relatively few weaknesses, they would figure to at least match the 83 wins they managed last season. That's a reasonable goal, but it hinges on further action by the front office.

Would you play Busch or Amaya more than these projections assume, or trust veterans like Bellinger and Gomes to deliver more value than the numbers can capture? Let's weigh the options anew with these new data in mind.