Mervis coming up

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

How many of them were 25 when they put up those seasons?

Sorry, I see now my wording is misleading, what I'm saying is Mervis at Iowa has the essentially perfect peripherals of those guys as MLBers. Ironically though, Tex is the only one of those guys who hit as prospect like he did in MLBGuys who walk a lot, don't strike out a lot, have power, and put the ball in the air.  The latter were all Flyball Revolution guys.

But putting some numbers around it, since 2010 there've been 22 seasons of guys with a BB rate greater than 10%, a K rate less than 20%, a GB rate less than 40%, and pulled 50% of their batted balls

Pujols 

Asdrubal Cabrera (the only wRC+ less than 117 on this list)

Brian Dozier (x2)

Edwin Encarnacion (x5)

Jose Bautista (x5)

Jose Ramirez (x2)

Mark Teixiera (x3) (+3 more times before 2010)

Max Kepler

Paul Konerko

Steve Pearce (his insane out of nowhere 2014)

As you'd expect from me calling these peripherals perfect, these seasons averaged a 141 wRC+.  Mervis has to continue it in MLB obviously, but short of having a time machine and doing it younger he's done as much on paper at Iowa as one could possibly do.

17 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

This means nothing at all but I find it funny that Mervis is from Potomac, MD and was drafted by the Nationals before he committed to Duke, but the Cubs waited until after the series in Washington to call him up.  Maybe playing in front of his hometown may have been more pressure for him than debuting at Wrigley.

I think the plan was to call him up Tuesday but then Gomes got concussed and made additional roster machinations more complicated.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

We used to have this argument, I think about Soler but it might have been someone else.  Even if there's a really good reason a guy missed key development years, he still missed them.

I definitely think he could be a useful player, but there's probably a reason he was outside most top-100 lists and barely cracked the ones he did make.

Mervis is an April birthday who was a college draftee and spent 2 full seasons going from ExST to AAA, I'm not really seeing the missed developmental time.  Any gaps of significance are pretty universal with his peers because they'd be because of covid.

 

As for his prospect pedigree, he's a fringe top 100 guy because the bar is so high for 1B(Fangraphs lists 3 in their Top 112 and one of those is still catching a fair amount), and the adjustments he made that brought him success didn't afford him a ton of time for industry consensus to catch up.  Prospects fail definitionally so if you want Mervis's median outcome it's not gonna be great, but with his sustained peripheral improvement there is no specific gotcha for him specifically that says he's a particularly poor bet to be a good hitter.

[sweetpeteman]

Encarnacion was mediocre and Baustista sucked until they were 29.

[sneakypower]

16 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

We used to have this argument, I think about Soler but it might have been someone else.  Even if there's a really good reason a guy missed key development years, he still missed them.

I definitely think he could be a useful player, but there's probably a reason he was outside most top-100 lists and barely cracked the ones he did make.

(appeal to authority)

"there's a reason 24 teams passed on Mike Trout in the draft" "there's a reason Pujols lasted until the thirteenth round" means little as a rhetorical crutch

Jeremy Pena was looking like ROY for 1-2 months last year and Baseball America did an updated rankings where they begrudgingly slated him 100th lol, they're all flawed evaluators

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just think he's an interesting B-tier prospect who is getting a lot of attention/hype because he's the only near-ready B-tier prospect we have.  But B-tier isn't bad.

[sneakypower]

15 minutes ago, sweetpeteman said:

Encarnacion was mediocre and Baustista sucked until they were 29.

what!!? Edwin Encarnacion had a 10-year peak averaging 40 HR & 114 RBI per-162GP

[sneakypower]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Hosmer in a bench role is almost as dumb as Hosmer starting at first base.  What is the point?  He brings no value whatsoever off the bench.  Nobody ever wants to see him entering the game as a pinch hitter in the late innings.

by all accounts, he's a superlative teammate, so all else aside having a league-average hitter in mostly PH role who likely provides significant intangible clubhouse benefits, is much more natural/acceptable role than giving full time PT to a replacement level player at a premium offensive position

[David]

25 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

what!!? Edwin Encarnacion had a 10-year peak averaging 40 HR & 114 RBI per-162GP

Before age 29, he had a career 104 OPS+ with no defensive value.  I'd say calling that mediocre is a fair statement, if not generous. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by David

[sneakypower]

53 minutes ago, David said:

Before age 29, he had a career 104 OPS+ with no defensive value.  I'd say calling that mediocre is a fair statement, if not generous. 

what does defensive value, or even age-specific production have to do with anything? the point was comparing offensive peripherals at AAA and what it might portend for his career outlook

[David]

1 minute ago, sneakypower said:

what does defensive value, or even age-specific production have to do with anything? the point was comparing offensive peripherals at AAA and what it might portend for his career outlook

The dude said he was mediocre before age 29 and you took issue with it.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Encarnacion had over 3000 MLB PA before turning 29 and a 106 wRC+ to show for it(after turning 29: 5000+ PA, 136 wRC+).  As a bottom of the defensive spectrum player I think mediocre is a pretty fair characterization.

[sneakypower]

2 minutes ago, David said:

The dude said he was mediocre before age 29 and you took issue with it.  

uh ok, Jose Ramirez and Paul Konerko were studs by age 23 so we'll just split the difference then and look forward to his breakout next year, in this highly scientific, meaningful, analysis here

[David]

2 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

uh ok, Jose Ramirez and Paul Konerko were studs by age 23 so we'll just split the difference then and look forward to his breakout next year, in this highly scientific, meaningful, analysis here

Edited May 5, 2023 by David

[sneakypower]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Encarnacion had over 3000 MLB PA before turning 29 and a 106 wRC+ to show for it(after turning 29: 5000+ PA, 136 wRC+).  As a bottom of the defensive spectrum player I think mediocre is a pretty fair characterization.

i want you to tell me what any of this elucidates in an analysis of Matt Mervis's future potential

Bertz made a clearly understood point and saying "uh this one guy didn't master MLB pitching right away and also sucked defensively (dooming Mervis's near-term outlook by proxy) is mostly pointless commentary imo

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i want you to tell me what any of this elucidates in an analysis of Matt Mervis's future potential

Bertz made a clearly understood point and saying "uh this one guy didn't master MLB pitching right away and also sucked defensively (dooming Mervis's near-term outlook by proxy) is mostly pointless commentary imo

It doesn't really? I don't see the delayed success of Encarnacion and Bautista as particularly relevant to projecting Mervis, but you seemed to be saying that them having delayed success was factually incorrect which is what I was speaking to.

[sweetpeteman]

I was mostly replying to IrrDudes original post about Teix, Encarnacion, Bautista, and Ramirez but was also at work and missed the other posts. He posted 4 guys and had a response about Mervis being 25, but two of them didn't really succeed until they were 29 and in Toronto. 

 

Frankly, if Mervis puts up Edwin's line of .260/.336/.453 (with 24 hr and 81 rbi per 162 gp because those certainly are stats) from his pre-29 years, I'd consider that a huge success.  Especially in todays game where last year Josh Bell put up a similar line (although split between being good in WAS and ass in SD) and had an OPS+ of 128.

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by sweetpeteman

[UMFan83]

2 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I just think he's an interesting B-tier prospect who is getting a lot of attention/hype because he's the only near-ready B-tier prospect we have.  But B-tier isn't bad.

B tier prospect with an A tier ceiling I think.  A guy with a solid BB/K rate and good power can be a stud if it translates to the majors.   What are his major areas of concern?  I know Keith Law commented on his mediocre bat speed and spin recognition, but I have no idea if those are valid concerns.

[sneakypower]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

B tier prospect with an A tier ceiling I think.  A guy with a solid BB/K rate and good power can be a stud if it translates to the majors.   What are his major areas of concern?  I know Keith Law commented on his mediocre bat speed and spin recognition, but I have no idea if those are valid concerns.

Boog said he was just 6th lefty (instance?) to hit 110+ MPH off LHP this year so already pretty hard to think bat speed is a legit flaw

[Brock Beauchamp]

What this thread needs is a really intense argument over the definition of the word mediocre. 

[Rex Buckingham]

30 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What this thread needs is a really intense argument over the definition of the word mediocre. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What this thread needs is a really intense argument over the definition of the word mediocre. 

I was going to avoid bringing up my "I hate the concept of ceiling" thing but I decided to let it go.