Week 16 BEARS vs. Buffalo Bills, Xmas Eve

[WrigleyField 22]

NGL, I have a decent sized bet that the Texans would have the worst record in the league at +350

Hedge the ML parlay week 18 if they're still a game apart?

[raw]

What do you guys think are the odds that the Bears shut down Justin for the last 2 games? I know they aren't "tanking" but there are some clear "not trying to win" things going on. The play calling, the play design, and general conservativeness (short field punts, playing for FGs, playing vanilla on D and not boosting the pass rush).

 

I do think the organization sees things like us fans. Yeah, we want to win. Yeah, we want Justin to play well, but it wouldn't be terrible if they lost. But there's no Fields development happening right now. Outside of LT, every other lineman was not the intended starter this season. Hell 3 of 5 weren't intended to be playing out of the bye 2 weeks ago. Missing their top 3 WRs on the depth chart. Missing 3 starting DBs and the only LB on a future Bears roster. For God's sake there was a play where Fields rolled out left and there were 0 receivers on that side of the field (looked like setting up a throwback screen which was snuffed). Fields needs the reps, but he also needs to go into this offseason completely healthy. Playing with this OL makes that tough. And if you are handing off on every true pass down, that's not doing anything for him. And he won't be throwing to any of these guys going forward, except maybe Velus, who should be 5th on a good depth chart. With the shoulder thing still lingering, I wonder if the Bears don't just say "we've seen enough" and tank the last 2 games, with reasonable cause.

[Soul]

What do you guys think are the odds that the Bears shut down Justin for the last 2 games? I know they aren't "tanking" but there are some clear "not trying to win" things going on. The play calling, the play design, and general conservativeness (short field punts, playing for FGs, playing vanilla on D and not boosting the pass rush).

 

I do think the organization sees things like us fans. Yeah, we want to win. Yeah, we want Justin to play well, but it wouldn't be terrible if they lost. But there's no Fields development happening right now. Outside of LT, every other lineman was not the intended starter this season. Hell 3 of 5 weren't intended to be playing out of the bye 2 weeks ago. Missing their top 3 WRs on the depth chart. Missing 3 starting DBs and the only LB on a future Bears roster. For God's sake there was a play where Fields rolled out left and there were 0 receivers on that side of the field (looked like setting up a throwback screen which was snuffed). Fields needs the reps, but he also needs to go into this offseason completely healthy. Playing with this OL makes that tough. And if you are handing off on every true pass down, that's not doing anything for him. And he won't be throwing to any of these guys going forward, except maybe Velus, who should be 5th on a good depth chart. With the shoulder thing still lingering, I wonder if the Bears don't just say "we've seen enough" and tank the last 2 games, with reasonable cause.

 

I wouldn't mind it. I'm just not sure if the Bears will do it or not. I didn't really expect Poles to sell off MLB-style early in the season either. He pretty much broadcast that he's tanking, so sitting Fields seems to be is in line with that. Wouldn't they have sit Fields Saturday though? The put him out there yet obviously protected him. It's 50/50 for me. I wouldn't be surprised either way. If it was me I'd shut him down, but it's not me.

[raw]

What do you guys think are the odds that the Bears shut down Justin for the last 2 games? I know they aren't "tanking" but there are some clear "not trying to win" things going on. The play calling, the play design, and general conservativeness (short field punts, playing for FGs, playing vanilla on D and not boosting the pass rush).

 

I do think the organization sees things like us fans. Yeah, we want to win. Yeah, we want Justin to play well, but it wouldn't be terrible if they lost. But there's no Fields development happening right now. Outside of LT, every other lineman was not the intended starter this season. Hell 3 of 5 weren't intended to be playing out of the bye 2 weeks ago. Missing their top 3 WRs on the depth chart. Missing 3 starting DBs and the only LB on a future Bears roster. For God's sake there was a play where Fields rolled out left and there were 0 receivers on that side of the field (looked like setting up a throwback screen which was snuffed). Fields needs the reps, but he also needs to go into this offseason completely healthy. Playing with this OL makes that tough. And if you are handing off on every true pass down, that's not doing anything for him. And he won't be throwing to any of these guys going forward, except maybe Velus, who should be 5th on a good depth chart. With the shoulder thing still lingering, I wonder if the Bears don't just say "we've seen enough" and tank the last 2 games, with reasonable cause.

 

I wouldn't mind it. I'm just not sure if the Bears will do it or not. I didn't really expect Poles to sell off MLB-style early in the season either. He pretty much broadcast that he's tanking, so sitting Fields seems to be is in line with that. Wouldn't they have sit Fields Saturday though? The put him out there yet obviously protected him. It's 50/50 for me. I wouldn't be surprised either way. If it was me I'd shut him down, but it's not me.

 

I think you can justify sitting him the final 2 games over the final 3 games. He sat out the final drive, you can say it was because of the nagging injuries (shoulder, foot, ankle or whatever) and that it's just become too much. Plus, they just had the bye so you wouldn't have brought him back for 1 week post bye.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I say rest Fields.let him recover and get healthy for next year

[jumbo]

What do you guys think are the odds that the Bears shut down Justin for the last 2 games? I know they aren't "tanking" but there are some clear "not trying to win" things going on. The play calling, the play design, and general conservativeness (short field punts, playing for FGs, playing vanilla on D and not boosting the pass rush).

 

I do think the organization sees things like us fans. Yeah, we want to win. Yeah, we want Justin to play well, but it wouldn't be terrible if they lost. But there's no Fields development happening right now. Outside of LT, every other lineman was not the intended starter this season. Hell 3 of 5 weren't intended to be playing out of the bye 2 weeks ago. Missing their top 3 WRs on the depth chart. Missing 3 starting DBs and the only LB on a future Bears roster. For God's sake there was a play where Fields rolled out left and there were 0 receivers on that side of the field (looked like setting up a throwback screen which was snuffed). Fields needs the reps, but he also needs to go into this offseason completely healthy. Playing with this OL makes that tough. And if you are handing off on every true pass down, that's not doing anything for him. And he won't be throwing to any of these guys going forward, except maybe Velus, who should be 5th on a good depth chart. With the shoulder thing still lingering, I wonder if the Bears don't just say "we've seen enough" and tank the last 2 games, with reasonable cause.

 

I wouldn't mind it. I'm just not sure if the Bears will do it or not. I didn't really expect Poles to sell off MLB-style early in the season either. He pretty much broadcast that he's tanking, so sitting Fields seems to be is in line with that. Wouldn't they have sit Fields Saturday though? The put him out there yet obviously protected him. It's 50/50 for me. I wouldn't be surprised either way. If it was me I'd shut him down, but it's not me.

 

I think you can justify sitting him the final 2 games over the final 3 games. He sat out the final drive, you can say it was because of the nagging injuries (shoulder, foot, ankle or whatever) and that it's just become too much. Plus, they just had the bye so you wouldn't have brought him back for 1 week post bye.

 

I think the odds are something like 60/40 starting next week, and maybe 80/20 the final week. Playing indoors hopefully with Claypool could be a good oppotunity, but if there is anything to the shoulder being aggrevated just shut him down. He does need good reps, but these are not really that....more broken plays than anything.

Put in Peterman, let the Texans knock off the Colts week 18, trade from 1 to 3 or 4 and still get either Anderson or Carter, horsefeathers yeah.

[WrigleyField 22]

Gonna run my full odds aftef Monday night results, but the Bears #1 pick odds shot up to 23% (from 7%) with that Texans win. And #2 pick odds around 30%.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

[raw]

Whelp there goes that

[UK]

Whelp there goes that

 

I would have sat him and had him in more of a coach mode with developing game plans and maybe call some plays.

 

I would still let him truly run the offense for a half.

[UMFan83]

I’m so torn on the decision to play him or not. While possible, the chances of him suffering an injury that affect him beyond this season are relatively very low. And I like the idea of getting him more reps (provided the playcalling actually allows those opportunities). On the other hand, a non-zero chance of tearing his ACL for otherwise completely meaningless games where he’ll be throwing to players who he won’t be throwing to in the future and being protected by a decimated line of marginal NFL talent. I guess laying that all out I lean towards sitting him

[raw]

I’m so torn on the decision to play him or not. While possible, the chances of him suffering an injury that affect him beyond this season are relatively very low. And I like the idea of getting him more reps (provided the playcalling actually allows those opportunities). On the other hand, a non-zero chance of tearing his ACL for otherwise completely meaningless games where he’ll be throwing to players who he won’t be throwing to in the future and being protected by a decimated line of marginal NFL talent. I guess laying that all out I lean towards sitting him

 

I've always been team "let him get reps" but if they are going to gameplan and playcall and have the personnel that they did Saturday, there's no reason to play him in that mess. If Claypool is a go, I do see the value in getting reps with him and Velus (they should get a ton of targets each). But if no Claypool, there's not much to gain by him playing.

[UK]

I’m so torn on the decision to play him or not. While possible, the chances of him suffering an injury that affect him beyond this season are relatively very low. And I like the idea of getting him more reps (provided the playcalling actually allows those opportunities). On the other hand, a non-zero chance of tearing his ACL for otherwise completely meaningless games where he’ll be throwing to players who he won’t be throwing to in the future and being protected by a decimated line of marginal NFL talent. I guess laying that all out I lean towards sitting him

 

I've always been team "let him get reps" but if they are going to gameplan and playcall and have the personnel that they did Saturday, there's no reason to play him in that mess. If Claypool is a go, I do see the value in getting reps with him and Velus (they should get a ton of targets each). But if no Claypool, there's not much to gain by him playing.

 

Having this lack of talent hurts him more than helps him. What habit is he going to develop beyond throwing into every tight window every pass since no WR can separate?

[Soul]

I’m so torn on the decision to play him or not. While possible, the chances of him suffering an injury that affect him beyond this season are relatively very low. And I like the idea of getting him more reps (provided the playcalling actually allows those opportunities). On the other hand, a non-zero chance of tearing his ACL for otherwise completely meaningless games where he’ll be throwing to players who he won’t be throwing to in the future and being protected by a decimated line of marginal NFL talent. I guess laying that all out I lean towards sitting him

 

I've always been team "let him get reps" but if they are going to gameplan and playcall and have the personnel that they did Saturday, there's no reason to play him in that mess. If Claypool is a go, I do see the value in getting reps with him and Velus (they should get a ton of targets each). But if no Claypool, there's not much to gain by him playing.

 

Having this lack of talent hurts him more than helps him. What habit is he going to develop beyond throwing into every tight window every pass since no WR can separate?

It’s like a hitter warming up with weights on the bat. When he steps to the plate for real it should be easy peasy.

[jumbo]

I’m so torn on the decision to play him or not. While possible, the chances of him suffering an injury that affect him beyond this season are relatively very low. And I like the idea of getting him more reps (provided the playcalling actually allows those opportunities). On the other hand, a non-zero chance of tearing his ACL for otherwise completely meaningless games where he’ll be throwing to players who he won’t be throwing to in the future and being protected by a decimated line of marginal NFL talent. I guess laying that all out I lean towards sitting him

 

I've always been team "let him get reps" but if they are going to gameplan and playcall and have the personnel that they did Saturday, there's no reason to play him in that mess. If Claypool is a go, I do see the value in getting reps with him and Velus (they should get a ton of targets each). But if no Claypool, there's not much to gain by him playing.

 

Having this lack of talent hurts him more than helps him. What habit is he going to develop beyond throwing into every tight window every pass since no WR can separate?

 

I agree with your point about the talent around him. It’s risky for him to be out there with that line, with the compound argument of him starting to “see ghosts” or have the mental side impacted.

At this point, part of you wants him to play and another pArt doesn’t. But some of us use the tanking as a tiebreaker

[Old Style]

Play the horsefeathering QB if he's healthy enough to play. He needs all the reps he can get. I get that injuries are always possible but I don't see the benefit of sitting him the last 2 games.

[raw]

Play the horsefeathering QB if he's healthy enough to play. He needs all the reps he can get. I get that injuries are always possible but I don't see the benefit of sitting him the last 2 games.

 

He does need the reps, but he isn't getting valuable reps right now. Only player he will complete passes to next year that he completed passes to last week is Kmet, and maybe 10-15 for Velus. Braxton Jones was the only OL he needs to even bother keeping their phone number of the guys that blocked for him last week.

[WrigleyField 22]

Draft pick odds. Chicago and Houston's odds game by game odds are almost identical right now (28% win chance for Hou in each game and 27% for Chicago each game).

 

Thus, about 1/4 of the time Bears would get #1 pick.

 

 

----

And a liitle follow up for why the #1 pick odds could be understated:

 

Tldr - Jacksonville v Houston is basically a meaningless game (think David covered this scenario loosely earlier)

 

[Soul]

If those odds aren't taking into account the state of the teams they are playing, then what use are they?

[WrigleyField 22]

If those odds aren't taking into account the state of the teams they are playing, then what use are they?

They take into the account each team at current strength basically, but pretty hard to model out effort if there are meaningless games being played (or potential tank motivation).

 

Edit: poking around week 17 Elo and Vegas lines and most games are within a 1.5 points of eachother, with an average of 0.69 difference. So within reason, it's just another proxy for Vegas lines (just an easier one since 538 reports odds instead of having to back into odds from a spread or moneyline bet)

 

Edit 2: I am also using their QB adjusted Elo ratings. That should at least account for changes to QB, but either they aren't adjusting for Foles in Indy or haven't updated it yet. That seems unlikely even though their QB play has been poor all year. Foles should be taking them down even more.

Edited December 27, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[gflore34]

Don't see a Bears-Lions thread nevertheless, it's OK with me if the Bears end their losing streak and effectively knock the Lions out of the playoffs. Maybe Justin will lead them to a game winning drive in the last two minutes or something along these lines. Might cost them the second pick however, I believe Anderson and at the very least, Carter will still be there for the Bears at #3. Regardless of how well Gino Smith has done Seattle will still take a QB at #2.

[Old Style]

Just randomly discovered that Kyle Long blocked me on Twitter. No idea what I could have said or when it happened. Haven’t really thought about him in years. Lol.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Don't see a Bears-Lions thread nevertheless, it's OK with me if the Bears end their losing streak and effectively knock the Lions out of the playoffs. Maybe Justin will lead them to a game winning drive in the last two minutes or something along these lines. Might cost them the second pick however, I believe Anderson and at the very least, Carter will still be there for the Bears at #3. Regardless of how well Gino Smith has done Seattle will still take a QB at #2.

 

A win knocks them to 4.

[gflore34]

Don't see a Bears-Lions thread nevertheless, it's OK with me if the Bears end their losing streak and effectively knock the Lions out of the playoffs. Maybe Justin will lead them to a game winning drive in the last two minutes or something along these lines. Might cost them the second pick however, I believe Anderson and at the very least, Carter will still be there for the Bears at #3. Regardless of how well Gino Smith has done Seattle will still take a QB at #2.

 

A win knocks them to 4.

 

OK, they probably won't win, don't think we'll have to discuss that possibility.

[Brian707]

Bears are getting the #1 pick. Lovie going to try to win this week and Jax will be resting players for Week 18. My only concern is with the Vikings resting guys week 18