Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-5-22

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Game (All Times Central):

 

ACL Cubs vs ACL Guardians, 8:00 pm

DSL Cubs vs DSL Brewers 1, 10:00 pm

DSL Cubs Red at DSL Brewers 2, 10:00 pm

 

All full season teams have the day off

[Hrubes20]

Someone get me a scouting report on 17 year old Jose Escobar. He’s been playing SS and hit his 2nd bomb today to go along with 4 triples in only 60 ABs.

[toonsterwu]

Might be the most exciting thing in the Cubs minors this year (half-kidding, but what's also funny is that BA has him listed at 5'0" at last check, I think Cubs site says it's 5'10" but 5 flat would've been ... well interesting to say the least) ... fully admitting I don't follow things like I used to, this seems like a very lackluster year so far from the system. Nothing really exciting - granted, exciting sometimes doesn't pan out (still remember Oscar de la Cruz's dominant A ball season, and well, who can forget Trey McNutt's sudden rise and fall ... it's been so long I really don't recall what happened to McNutt).

 

Who's that standout player or two that seems to be catching eyes, that could potentially be considered a key trade asset or someone to build around? Again, these guys don't necessarily pan out that way, but for a system that a year or so ago that we were trying to talk into a fast restock, about the only guy that stands out to me is DJ Herz, and I feel hopeful enough about those mechanics. I guess Killian, and I'm not too worried about the starts so far, but I can't help but feel the number 3 ceiling that people slap on him might just be a bit high. I half want to say Moises Ballesteros, but well, he's in RoK.

 

Davis' surgery really puts a damper on things, although it's nice that it doesn't sound that serious. Still, any loss of work for a guy who could use all the AB's he can get, is disappointing. Actually, after getting lost in the wayside, I think what Kevin Made's done is quite standout. If he can keep this up another few weeks, I'd like to see his bat get a run up a level. Hard for me to think he isn't a top 10 guy in the system if there were midseason lists, if not higher. Power is showing well, bat is playing fine with improved discipline, which doesn't always happen, and by most accounts, he's still a plus defender, right? I mean, I think you could argue top 5 for Made with those improvements. I'm not that worried on Alcantara's K's yet, though they are alarming. For people following, are the K's a result of say, types of pitches (is he missing breaking balls?), pitch recognition, or overaggressiveness? Hope Triantos' recent HR surge is a sign of things clicking for him.

 

Am I missing someone/something? I guess PCA is up there. Don't know why, but I keep feeling like his skillset, he should hit in the A ball ranks, so maybe I undervalue him. Still, it seems like a fairly disappointing season in the minors from an outside looking in standpoint for me. Assuming Killian graduates, outside of Davis, do we have another top 75 prospect type? I guess I ask this because it almost feels like for all the talk about a fast restock, we're basically looking at a "normal" rebuild, where we'll need a couple good drafts to mix in, and hope for a breakout or two, and hope to get an elite talent high in the draft next year to anchor around. Puts the next window closer to 2025 than I was hoping last fall, and thats if a lot of things go right.

 

Don't know why I'm so pessimistic. Just doesn't look great.

[Tim]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=40&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=17&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1&pageitems=100&pg=0

 

We have 48 players hitting above league average on that list. If you set the PA at 100 to get rid of the short season guys, then you're still at 29 players hitting above league average. And a large batch of those players are real prospects who are young for their levels. Someone like PCA is almost a lock to be a top 75, if not top 30 player if he keeps up his production at this level. About the only prospect who has really hurt his standing this year (other than injury) is Preciado. For PCA, Alcantara, Made, Triantos, Caissie and Pinango to all be above average hitters as some of the youngest guys in their leagues is really good. Add in that they pretty much all got off to slow starts and then started raking after the adjustment is even better.

 

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic on that side of the ball.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=pit&qual=30&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=17&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=17,-1

 

There's not quite as much to be excited about on the pitching side, but there are good things happening there, too. The guy that has really "popped" there this year is Devers. He's probably raised his stock more than any other pitcher. But Herz & Wicks have both posted really good peripherals & scouting.

 

Also, so that I don't have Tom jump on me, Gallardo has also more than held his own as one of the youngest players in that league, also.

[toonsterwu]

Actually, I did forget about Gallardo. He has been having an excellent season, and he's a kid who I think the K's might spike up as he moves up, which isn't always the case. Here's hoping at least.

 

Maybe I am undervaluing PCA. That I'll fully acknowledge, although I tend to think that the gap from PCA to Kevin Made right now isn't as big as some suggest and I don't think anyone is arguing on Made as a top 75 prospect (although maybe there is a case for it ... plus defensive shortstop who has shown improved discipline with 15HR potential (okay maybe 15 is his peak, but I don't know current scouting reports) is quite valuable).

 

Maybe I'm drawing a fine line. That list is nice, but half of those guys don't really make a difference right now to begin with, if we're being brutally honest. I mean, several guys are organizational filler, or at best, end of the bench options if they get the majors (Andy Weber comes to mind). I'd be the first one to say based on a quick glance, there's a lot of guys Im satisfied with. A lot of guys who seem to be developing positively. There really hasn't been many breakouts. I mean, I'm on board with the idea that Triantos might be the best bat in the system in a few years, but there's some projection and, well, wishing, on that, despite being a relatively "polished" HS kid.

 

I'm not convinced PCA is a lock for top 75. Top 100 yes. Again, maybe a fine line I'm drawing there. Don't know ... I don't get the feeling that this system is strong enough, as it stands, pre-draft, right now, to hope that any sort of timeline can be accelerated based upon the system, if that makes sense.

 

Edit: As for Devers, yes, the numbers look fascinating. I assume the scouting report is still vaguely the same (deception on his delivery, fastball touching mid-90's but a bit straight, vaguely recall a 55 being slapped on the change and a work in progress curveball). He's a guy that needs a bump up to see if that secondary stuff is can really excel against tougher bats. Although if I'm being fair, his season does qualify as a breakout-ish type season, so that's one I missed.

[Tim]

Actually, I did forget about Gallardo. He has been having an excellent season, and he's a kid who I think the K's might spike up as he moves up, which isn't always the case. Here's hoping at least.

 

Maybe I am undervaluing PCA. That I'll fully acknowledge, although I tend to think that the gap from PCA to Kevin Made right now isn't as big as some suggest and I don't think anyone is arguing on Made as a top 75 prospect (although maybe there is a case for it ... plus defensive shortstop who has shown improved discipline with 15HR potential (okay maybe 15 is his peak, but I don't know current scouting reports) is quite valuable).

 

Maybe I'm drawing a fine line. That list is nice, but half of those guys don't really make a difference right now to begin with, if we're being brutally honest. I mean, several guys are organizational filler, or at best, end of the bench options if they get the majors (Andy Weber comes to mind). I'd be the first one to say based on a quick glance, there's a lot of guys Im satisfied with. A lot of guys who seem to be developing positively. There really hasn't been many breakouts. I mean, I'm on board with the idea that Triantos might be the best bat in the system in a few years, but there's some projection and, well, wishing, on that, despite being a relatively "polished" HS kid.

 

I'm not convinced PCA is a lock for top 75. Top 100 yes. Again, maybe a fine line I'm drawing there. Don't know ... I don't get the feeling that this system is strong enough, as it stands, pre-draft, right now, to hope that any sort of timeline can be accelerated based upon the system, if that makes sense.

 

Edit: As for Devers, yes, the numbers look fascinating. I assume the scouting report is still vaguely the same (deception on his delivery, fastball touching mid-90's but a bit straight, vaguely recall a 55 being slapped on the change and a work in progress curveball). He's a guy that needs a bump up to see if that secondary stuff is can really excel against tougher bats. Although if I'm being fair, his season does qualify as a breakout-ish type season, so that's one I missed.

Mervis is breaking out to the point where he's gone from a super-fringe prospect to someone of significant interest for me. That 160 wRC+ across 292 PA looks really nice. As a bat-only 1B and at 24, he needs to be doing that to be on the radar. Hill is doing enough with an outstanding contact rate to be intriguing. Slaughter is another breakout that needs to go on for all season to be believed, but hot damn right now.

 

Also, I have no idea why you're discounting a .320/.388/.532 line from a "plus-plus" CF in his first effective year in pro ball. He's essentially straight out of high school putting up those numbers after a year off. He's got the draft pedigree and is a no-doubt CF. If that's his line at the end of the year, I think you'll see top 20-30 ranks on him. Especially if that power production holds up - that was definitely unexpected from him this year.

[Tim]

Just noticed PCA's current ranking on FG is at 49 overall.

[toonsterwu]

We'll see on PCA, I guess. The A numbers are great. He's probably been pushing it in A+. He made major swing changes this season, IIRC, to generate more power. I'm curious how those swing changes hold up against tougher pitching and if it impacts his hit tool in any way (and his hit tool was good, but not plus, and if he's not a good hit tool guy, then his value slides down enough ... I mean, pre-power surge, his intrigue was that he could be a .280 plus defensive center fielder). Look, right now, pre-draft, is he top 75? Probably top 50, based on graduations. At the end of the year? I'm just not convinced he's a lock for top 75. Leaving aside an influx of guys that will slide him down a bit, I'm curious how his bat holds up in A+ to see if we can truly get an idea on what his offensive potential is.

 

Yeah, it's odd for me to be that concerned about a guy like this, considering how I tended to view prospects.

 

Edit: Btw, I'm not discounting PCA. I think he's going to get to the majors in some role, fairly easily because of that glove. That said, I'm not yet convinced he's a consistent starter. To be fair, maybe my own perceptions of PCA are inhibiting my view of his season as a breakout, because by all measures it is, so that's fair. But no, I'm not discounting PCA.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With their midseason updates, PCA is 48 at both BA and FanGraphs while he’s 80 with Pipeline.

 

Alcántara 93 with FG, 99 with Pipeline and unranked by BA.

 

Neither of those guys were ranked top 100 preseason.

[sneakypower]

There really hasn't been many breakouts.

Morel