2022 Trade Deadline

[CubinNY]

Doom, despair, agony on me, deep dark depression, excessive misery.

 

[d_money]

Doom, despair, agony on me, deep dark depression, excessive misery.

 

Let them empty the farm system and then be unable to sign him

[Derwood]

I’m sure the deeply racist fan base would make Soto feel right at home and want to sign a lengthy extension

[UMFan83]

Doom, despair, agony on me, deep dark depression, excessive misery.

 

 

Would be hilarious (not hilarious) if they managed to trade for the contracts of Goldschmidt, Arenado and future contract of Soto while still managing to get a nearly annual competitive balance draft pick.

[Bertz]

Ken Rosenthal had an article yesterday that said the Padres were the *heavy* favorites.

 

One executive, in assessing the Soto sweepstakes, said, “I think San Diego is as likely as the other 28 teams combined. They have the players and they have Preller.”

 

On the Cards, not that it would make it okay but I would take a Soto deal as a sign that Arenado is opting his way out the door. I don't think they can actually make 3 guys combining for ~$90M work, especially when it costs most of their MLB young talent that could help defray those costs. So it would *really* suck, but I don't think we're staring down the barrel of another long term Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds triumvirate of pain.

[Bertz]

 

It's deep in the weeds stuff, but this is always very important for the Trade Deadline. Teams are more likely to give up better players than they otherwise would have if players are on or due to be put on the 40 man roster. Like last year the Cubs got more talent than expected for Rizzo and Bryant, but part of that is because the 2nd prospect in each deal was an A-baller already on the 40 man roster.

 

The difference between this year and last year is that now the Cubs have their own 40 man crunch. So the team is probably much less likely to take back more Alexander Canario types this year. I'd imagine returns will be either non-40 players or 40-players who seem pretty certain to get MLB playing time in '23. I also wonder if we see a consolidation trade or two, either something really big (Contreras + Happ) or small (sending a fringe 40 man guy e.g. Anderson Espinoza back in a trade with an MLBer for a slightly better prospect return).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let the excitement commence for Fernando Cruz in January 2024:

 

 

Cross-posting here because I wonder what this does for some pending FA's and potential extension negotiations. If Musgrove was close with SD, knowing his market just dropped by 8 figures has to push him over the edge, right? And in the more important case of Willson, is the gap between his goals and an extension offer now close enough to re-engage?

[Tryptamine]

Let the excitement commence for Fernando Cruz in January 2024:

 

 

Cross-posting here because I wonder what this does for some pending FA's and potential extension negotiations. If Musgrove was close with SD, knowing his market just dropped by 8 figures has to push him over the edge, right? And in the more important case of Willson, is the gap between his goals and an extension offer now close enough to re-engage?

 

Isn't this good for us? Cubs can sign the #1 kid in the IFA that they've been linked to. With a draft, that wouldn't have been possible.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let the excitement commence for Fernando Cruz in January 2024:

 

 

Cross-posting here because I wonder what this does for some pending FA's and potential extension negotiations. If Musgrove was close with SD, knowing his market just dropped by 8 figures has to push him over the edge, right? And in the more important case of Willson, is the gap between his goals and an extension offer now close enough to re-engage?

 

Isn't this good for us? Cubs can sign the #1 kid in the IFA that they've been linked to. With a draft, that wouldn't have been possible.

 

It is good for that, and might be good for the immediate future if the FO is more inclined to be aggressive on QO's due to various circumstances(stocked farm after 2 years of selling, wanting to move towards playoff contention soon). It is bad in that the front office has to make harder tradeoffs in free agency between adding talent now and maintaining a consistent pipeline for the years to come.

[Bertz]

The Cubs are likely going to pick in the same vicinity they next year as they did this year. Given that "trading down" and playing bonus pool shenanigans was their Plan A, I do fear that we're in for another winter of working around qualifying offers (sigh).

 

So I think from a Cubs perspective the biggest things to watch are what the Red Sox and Giants do. Do either of them fall so far back of the Wildcard that either Bogaerts or Rodon get traded and can't be QO'd?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs are likely going to pick in the same vicinity they next year as they did this year. Given that "trading down" and playing bonus pool shenanigans was their Plan A, I do fear that we're in for another winter of working around qualifying offers (sigh).

 

So I think from a Cubs perspective the biggest things to watch are what the Red Sox and Giants do. Do either of them fall so far back of the Wildcard that either Bogaerts or Rodon get traded and can't be QO'd?

 

In that sense, maybe Josh Bell too, though the risk profile on both ends is different.

 

In terms of who might be another Stroman, the potential FA that cannot get a QO due to receiving it before are Correa(pending opt out), Syndergaard, Verlander(pending opt out), and (lol) Greinke.

[Bertz]

The Cubs are likely going to pick in the same vicinity they next year as they did this year. Given that "trading down" and playing bonus pool shenanigans was their Plan A, I do fear that we're in for another winter of working around qualifying offers (sigh).

 

So I think from a Cubs perspective the biggest things to watch are what the Red Sox and Giants do. Do either of them fall so far back of the Wildcard that either Bogaerts or Rodon get traded and can't be QO'd?

 

In that sense, maybe Josh Bell too, though the risk profile on both ends is different.

 

In terms of who might be another Stroman, the potential FA that cannot get a QO due to receiving it before are Correa(pending opt out), Syndergaard, Verlander(pending opt out), and (lol) Greinke.

 

Josh Bell seems to be certain to be moved, but yeah he's definitely a guy that the QO would change the marginal value of acquiring him substantially.

 

I'm also really hoping Thor goes elsewhere. There's a pretty real chance he's still good and the Angels are just dummies, but I don't want to be on the team making that bet, especially with his velo way down.

[Bertz]

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Currently going back and forth on if trading for Happ in these circumstances is very much not a Rays move or a very on brand Rays move. On one hand, they aren't bidding war winners in any sense of the word, and they could try to limp along with their current team or some potential reinforcements(Ramirez when he gets healthy, maybe Mastrubuoni or another try w/ Brujan). On the other hand, they've got a big 40 man crunch, limited LHH OF options in the short term without some reversal of fortune(J Lowe, Phillips), and if they are spending to improve for the stretch run and help the 40 man pressure they'll probably appreciate the target having additional team control.

[Gilby]

Regarding the Rays and Happ, it feels like Mead and Bradley have been too good for the Rays to trade, and seemingly almost all of their other top prospects have disappointed this season?

[Bertz]

 

Multiple teams, sources said, worry about Contreras -- who is not known for his game-calling acumen -- meshing with a new pitching staff on the fly. The number of teams with World Series aspirations that could use a catching upgrade isn't huge, but the New York Mets and Houston Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about the 30-year-old free agent-to-be, sources said, and the San Francisco Giants are poking around on catching options, too. Other teams could seek Contreras more as a bat with the ability to play catcher rather than acquiring him as a primary backstop.

 

Two things have become clear in the past week as trade talks picked up: Almost everyone wants Happ, and the Cubs are likely to trade him, according to sources. It makes sense. Happ, who turns 28 next month, is in the midst of an All-Star season. He's a switch-hitter who after years of swinging far better from the left side is crushing left-handed pitchers this season, he's a well-above-average defender in left field, and he won't reach free agency until after the 2023 season.

 

The Cubs' well-executed sell-off last year -- Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kevin Alcantara might be their two best prospects -- could look a lot different this season. Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Craig Kimbrel all were dealt on deadline day in single-player deals. While the Cubs are likely to wind down the clock again and move Contreras, Happ and Robertson closer to Aug. 1 or 2 (barring a team being willing to overpay before that), the possibility of a package trade is far likelier. Interested teams, sources said, have been presenting the Cubs with offers for one of the hitters, plus Robertson or reliever Mychal Givens -- or, conceivably, both right-handers.

[Bertz]

If Houston is truly dropping the "how could we possibly play Martin Maldonado less?" schtick Hunter Brown would be kind of a perfect headliner for Contreras. Back of the Top 100 SP prospect who could step into the Cubs' rotation tomorrow.

 

I also really like Pedro Leon, but him + Brown is probably too much for Willson, and him as the headliner would seem a little light.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Houston is truly dropping the "how could we possibly play Martin Maldonado less?" schtick Hunter Brown would be kind of a perfect headliner for Contreras. Back of the Top 100 SP prospect who could step into the Cubs' rotation tomorrow.

 

Yep, my only concern is the Astros system is so bad there might be some more hesitation around using their best prospect for a rental, or similarly, trading their futures game rep a week after the fact.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Szymborski has an article with a handful of proposed trades he dreamed up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-some-deadline-trades/

 

One is Contreras to the Mets for Vientos straight up. The other is Happ to the White Sox for Jared Kelley, Oscar Colas, and Norge Vera. The former feels light but I would at least understand the upside and appeal. The latter is silliness.

[Tryptamine]

Szymborski has an article with a handful of proposed trades he dreamed up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-some-deadline-trades/

 

One is Contreras to the Mets for Vientos straight up. The other is Happ to the White Sox for Jared Kelley, Oscar Colas, and Norge Vera. The former feels light but I would at least understand the upside and appeal. The latter is silliness.

 

That WSox package would make me puke. I also have very little interest in Vientos who looks like the minor league version of Patrick Wisdom. Who cares if he has 70 grade power if he can't put the bat on the ball?

[Tryptamine]

I get Alvarez being off the table, but should Baty really be off the table for Contreras+Robertson?

 

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[Bertz]

Oscar Colas is a bit of a high variance guy in terms of opinion. I believe I've seen him on a Top 100 or two, and he's having a very good year so even if he wasn't in December he might be now. I'd buy he's a guy who could reasonably headline a Happ deal. HOWEVER, such a deal would have to be a quantity deal, a la last year's Gallo trade, and those two arms are not even close to being able to round out a trade. Last year the Rangers got two guys on the 45/50 border and two 40s. Dan's trade has only one of the latter, which makes it pretty unacceptable IMO, even before getting into the weirdness of adding two live arms in A Ball immediately after a draft where the org added a bunch of live arms ticketed for A Ball.

[Tryptamine]

Oscar Colas is a bit of a high variance guy in terms of opinion. I believe I've seen him on a Top 100 or two, and he's having a very good year so even if he wasn't in December he might be now. I'd buy he's a guy who could reasonably headline a Happ deal. HOWEVER, such a deal would have to be a quantity deal, a la last year's Gallo trade, and those two arms are not even close to being able to round out a trade. Last year the Rangers got two guys on the 45/50 border and two 40s. Dan's trade has only one of the latter, which makes it pretty unacceptable IMO, even before getting into the weirdness of adding two live arms in A Ball immediately after a draft where the org added a bunch of live arms ticketed for A Ball.

 

Kelley's only notoriety is that he was a quasi 1st round talent who has now been terrible in A ball in back to back years. Without that draft status, he's a year away from wash out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I took a look to see if there's any potential Madrigals out there this year, not tiny second basemen but injured MLBers on contenders who might part with them as part of a deadline deal.

 

Shane Baz - This would be a pretty big decision given Baz's pedigree and actual results, but he's thrown 40 IP this year in between elbow injuries and has never reached 90 IP in a season, so the argument exists for them to sell high. Whether they would sell high on a player the Cubs are trading at the deadline is an additional question.

 

Chris Paddack - The Twins probably aren't in a hurry to give up Paddack given his strong start, and the Cubs would get at most 1.5 full strength years out of him before FA. But he would hit FA young so if the value is right and they believe in their conviction to extend him or get extreme value out of his 2025 season, maybe.

 

Royce Lewis - Maybe more likely before he tore up AAA(and in 12 MLB games) before tearing a knee ligament, but if they don't see him as a long term SS(and this is his 2nd ACL tear) they do have a lot of bats for where he'd play instead. Given the limited MLB time he's probably more applicable to acquiring PCA than Madrigal.

 

Hyun Jin Ryu - This is less targeting Ryu, but maybe more that the Cubs wouldn't mind him being on the roster/payroll for 2023 and that could goose the return in a deadline deal. Ryu's on 20 million/year though so I'm not sure what would be worth that handicap.

 

Dustin May - Very unlikely, especially since he's almost back from his TJS now, but his K rates have never matched his stuff and his MLB performance to date has been more decent than portending future greatness. I would be shocked, but then again I was very surprised by Madrigal.

 

Evan White - White is more similar to Ryu in that he can't have much value in trade given his guaranteed money. He doesn't have any MLB track record, but he would make up for that in (relative) youth, prospect pedigree, and potential roster fit.

 

Joey Lucchesi - Lucchesi was a bang average starter in SD but had a peripheral strong start as a swingman in New York before TJS hit. The Mets need rotation options for next year worse than the Cubs, and he's a FA after 2024, but especially if the pitching infrastructure sees some un-mined potential he could be a secondary piece in a Happ or Contreras trade.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: The Tigers have informed rival teams they’re willing to consider trade offers on breakout starter Tarik Skubal, report Ken Rosenthal and Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic.

 

25 yr. old lefty starter. I'm sure he would cost quite a bit, but it might be worth looking into.