Bears off-season thread 2022

[jersey cubs fan]

Considering their history long issues with offense it's kind of funny that of the 6 coaches hired so far, the Bears are the only one that has picked someone with a defensive background. I'm not saying it's the wrong pick or that the Bears haven't balanced that with what appears to be a pretty strong offensive staff, just a funny observation.

Well with everyone else chasing one type just means prob most will be back in the carousel in a few years. Good chance the Bears will too obviously, but hopefully the first choice of a D guy is better than the 6th best O guy.

 

(positive thinking)

 

plus, Eberflus will likely be the D guy, and rightfully so. He might be all they need. A staff full of O guys is beneficial if they start to get poached due to success. Lets hope for that

what do you mean by this?

 

Eberflus has already stated he will not call defensive plays, they hired a DC and several other experienced defensive position coaches.

[David]

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

Well with everyone else chasing one type just means prob most will be back in the carousel in a few years. Good chance the Bears will too obviously, but hopefully the first choice of a D guy is better than the 6th best O guy.

 

(positive thinking)

 

plus, Eberflus will likely be the D guy, and rightfully so. He might be all they need. A staff full of O guys is beneficial if they start to get poached due to success. Lets hope for that

what do you mean by this?

 

Eberflus has already stated he will not call defensive plays, they hired a DC and several other experienced defensive position coaches.

 

meaning continuity at D; Eberflus will likely be the one setting up the defense, and the DC et al become less important in maintaining their level of play due to cooperate raiding if Eberflus' defense is good. The offense is probably more suspect in that regard, and therefore its more important to have a good pipeline of offensive coaches

[WrigleyField 22]

Probably baseless speculation/hope the Bears are targeting the Ravens top analytic guy.

 

 

He appears to have gone to college at Loyola, not sure if he's from Chicago or not.

 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/corey-krawiec-21766a10

 

Interned in Bears ticket office, which George used to run (not sure if same time).

[UMFan83]

Anyone catch this article that’s made the rounds on Twitter today?

 

https://dabearsblog.com/2022/how-good-is-david-montgomery

 

It basically breaks down David Montgomery’s body of work, tries to remove variables like the quality of offense from the evaluation and comes to the conclusion that David Montgomery is a well below average RB at everything except breaking tackles. You don’t have to agree or anything but it’s worth reading.

[WrigleyField 22]

Anyone catch this article that’s made the rounds on Twitter today?

 

https://dabearsblog.com/2022/how-good-is-david-montgomery

 

It basically breaks down David Montgomery’s body of work, tries to remove variables like the quality of offense from the evaluation and comes to the conclusion that David Montgomery is a well below average RB at everything except breaking tackles. You don’t have to agree or anything but it’s worth reading.

And it's breaking Bears Twitter.

 

I don't think the RYOE stat is being well understood though. I've seen so many complain that well actually it doesn't account for DMs line play. Except it does. The "expected" has his among the worse measures. And the Y/C still isn't producing above that.

 

I think a little bit of the Montgomery fan love is a little bit like the CF who makes a ton of diving catches. DM breaking tackles is like his diving catch. We like breaking tackles and DM gives us a lot of them, but actually he's just breaking tackles others might avoid completely.

 

He's a nice back and let's see what he does this year in a new system and new line, but my assumption is that he won't be worth paying even if he makes some continued strides. And frankly the potential of Herbert plays into a lot of that.

[mias_tisg]

Anyone catch this article that’s made the rounds on Twitter today?

 

https://dabearsblog.com/2022/how-good-is-david-montgomery

 

It basically breaks down David Montgomery’s body of work, tries to remove variables like the quality of offense from the evaluation and comes to the conclusion that David Montgomery is a well below average RB at everything except breaking tackles. You don’t have to agree or anything but it’s worth reading.

Montgomery is good, not great and paying running backs is dumb. Herbert showed he's more than capable of being an NFL starter when he played.

[Bertz]

Anyone catch this article that’s made the rounds on Twitter today?

 

https://dabearsblog.com/2022/how-good-is-david-montgomery

 

It basically breaks down David Montgomery’s body of work, tries to remove variables like the quality of offense from the evaluation and comes to the conclusion that David Montgomery is a well below average RB at everything except breaking tackles. You don’t have to agree or anything but it’s worth reading.

 

As much as football sabermetrics are improving, I think it's still extremely hard to disentangle individual performance from line play, scheme, a head coach that likes to run it straight up the middle in every obvious running down, etc. And all of those factors have not been doing Montgomery any favors.

 

That said, I don't think he is anything more than pretty good. It was silly to trade up for him and it would be even sillier to give him a meaningful second contract.

[WrigleyField 22]

Anyone catch this article that’s made the rounds on Twitter today?

 

https://dabearsblog.com/2022/how-good-is-david-montgomery

 

It basically breaks down David Montgomery’s body of work, tries to remove variables like the quality of offense from the evaluation and comes to the conclusion that David Montgomery is a well below average RB at everything except breaking tackles. You don’t have to agree or anything but it’s worth reading.

 

As much as football sabermetrics are improving, I think it's still extremely hard to disentangle individual performance from line play, scheme, a head coach that likes to run it straight up the middle in every obvious running down, etc. And all of those factors have not been doing Montgomery any favors.

 

That said, I don't think he is anything more than pretty good. It was silly to trade up for him and it would be even sillier to give him a meaningful second contract.

The problem is that the expected yards metric says exactly what it's critics are saying vis a vie the Bears line play and play calling. 3.95 expected yard per rush is damn near the bottom for qualified backs. And as I've eyeballed that metric it seems to align pretty well on my intuition of teams with good scheme and line play and those that are poor.

 

But intersecting Y/c with expected is something I'm not entirely sure of. At best it seems to tell us that there's scarcely any differenence between most RB while failing pretty bad to measure the extreme outliers. This variance issue does seem to lessen with large multi year samples. So it's perhaps not awful, but probably lacking any predictive value over a single season.

 

But at the end of the day, DM isn't efficient. Doesn't mean he doesn't provide value. Ironically though many of the people who are most pissed about the article would probably love the alternative take. That if you want to improve your running game, invest 10M in your lineman to improve your expected value instead of 10M to a RB who will most likely struggle to significantly out perform his line play.

 

The rest of the fan reaction is over emotional investment in DM who's play has been admirable given circumstances, but ultimately of seriously questionable long term value over other options.

[mias_tisg]

Sounds like the Bears might lose Marinelli and Rich Bisaccia to Green Bay and DaBearsBlog is already running in circles to defend the Bears because he's the mouthpiece of the Bears now:

 

[UK]

Sounds like the Bears might lose Marinelli and Rich Bisaccia to Green Bay and DaBearsBlog is already running in circles to defend the Bears because he's the mouthpiece of the Bears now:

 

 

I obviously want Bisaccia but Judge and Rizzi are still available also.

[David]

Sounds like the Bears might lose Marinelli and Rich Bisaccia to Green Bay and DaBearsBlog is already running in circles to defend the Bears because he's the mouthpiece of the Bears now:

 

 

Couldn't really care less who the ST guy is. Where are you seeing Marinelli to Green Bay? They have a DL coach in place.

 

Edit - nm, I see. It's just connecting dots based on relationships.

[David]

[WrigleyField 22]

Lotta mouth pieces defending this one. And maybe Hightower is a good coach , but this is probably the first big coach disappointment with the Bissaccia rumors. Not the least of which because it looks like he'll land in GB.

 

Really interesting if Eberflus fills out his entire staff and doesn't get any former HC. Maybe Marinelli still in play for DL?

[UMFan83]

Lotta mouth pieces defending this one. And maybe Hightower is a good coach , but this is probably the first big coach disappointment with the Bissaccia rumors. Not the least of which because it looks like he'll land in GB.

 

Really interesting if Eberflus fills out his entire staff and doesn't get any former HC. Maybe Marinelli still in play for DL?

 

No idea how good he is but I love hiring the guy whose unit almost single handedly eliminated the Packers from the playoffs if only for trolling reasons

[WrigleyField 22]

Lotta mouth pieces defending this one. And maybe Hightower is a good coach , but this is probably the first big coach disappointment with the Bissaccia rumors. Not the least of which because it looks like he'll land in GB.

 

Really interesting if Eberflus fills out his entire staff and doesn't get any former HC. Maybe Marinelli still in play for DL?

 

No idea how good he is but I love hiring the guy whose unit almost single handedly eliminated the Packers from the playoffs if only for trolling reasons

Sounds like they've generally ranked low in ST numbers. But maybe that's just an end of roster issue for SF.

[jersey cubs fan]

[raw]

Lotta mouth pieces defending this one. And maybe Hightower is a good coach , but this is probably the first big coach disappointment with the Bissaccia rumors. Not the least of which because it looks like he'll land in GB.

 

Really interesting if Eberflus fills out his entire staff and doesn't get any former HC. Maybe Marinelli still in play for DL?

 

No idea how good he is but I love hiring the guy whose unit almost single handedly eliminated the Packers from the playoffs if only for trolling reasons

Sounds like they've generally ranked low in ST numbers. But maybe that's just an end of roster issue for SF.

Bisacchia's ST also routinely rank in the 20s. Literally his only value was that he was a HC for half the year this year.

[UK]

 

No idea how good he is but I love hiring the guy whose unit almost single handedly eliminated the Packers from the playoffs if only for trolling reasons

Sounds like they've generally ranked low in ST numbers. But maybe that's just an end of roster issue for SF.

Bisacchia's ST also routinely rank in the 20s. Literally his only value was that he was a HC for half the year this year.

 

Deciding correctly on Grant, O'Donnell, and Scales will have more of an impact on ST than the coach.

[CoolHandLuke]

Lotta mouth pieces defending this one. And maybe Hightower is a good coach , but this is probably the first big coach disappointment with the Bissaccia rumors. Not the least of which because it looks like he'll land in GB.

 

Really interesting if Eberflus fills out his entire staff and doesn't get any former HC. Maybe Marinelli still in play for DL?

 

No idea how good he is but I love hiring the guy whose unit almost single handedly eliminated the Packers from the playoffs if only for trolling reasons

 

If that was your primary qualification, you should have hired Maurice Drayton.

[raw]

Sounds like they've generally ranked low in ST numbers. But maybe that's just an end of roster issue for SF.

Bisacchia's ST also routinely rank in the 20s. Literally his only value was that he was a HC for half the year this year.

 

Deciding correctly on Grant, O'Donnell, and Scales will have more of an impact on ST than the coach.

 

I'd probably look for a new punter. O'Donnell isn't special. If he stays on cheap 1 year deals, then whatever but new blood would be nice.

 

I'd definitely look for a new long snapper. Scales kinda sucks and had some iffy snaps last year.

 

I'd probably keep Grant, moreso for his speed and gadget play ability than returning. Bears have no shortage of return guys (Herbert, Newsome, healthy Cohen), they don't have much speed or WR help.

 

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[minnesotacubsfan]

Can we dump Cohen?

[UK]

Cohen will be cut.

[UMFan83]

 

Wow.....this whole article...wow. For anyone too lazy to read "The Bears are probably looking to dump Fields, even though its a huge risk the Steelers should try to rehab him, lets give the Bears a Josh Rosen type deal to get him (2nd round pick, maybe add a future 3rd or 4th) to get it done"

[David]

calling that an article is generous

 

also - if you think the piece is delusional, wait til you get a load of the replies.