Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-2-21

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 2-0 Box Score

 

2B D. Strange-Gordon 1/4, R

CF J. Marisnick 1/3, K, 2B (1) - rehab

RF J. Heyward 0/2, BB, K - rehab

3B A. Avelino 0/3, BB, K

C T. Wolters 0/4, K

SP A. Mills 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 8-3 GO-FO - rehab

RP K. Ryan 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 1-2 GO-FO

 

Tennessee suspended in the bottom of the 3rd inning

 

South Bend won 4-1 Box Score

 

CF E. Americaan 1/4, R, BB, K, SB (1)

SS D. Zinn 1/3, R, 3 RBI, BB, K, HR (1)

1B T. Durna 2/4, K

RF N. Velázquez 0/4, 2 K

LF Y. Perlaza 1/4, R

SP R. Jensen 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K, 2 HBP, 5-1 GO-FO

RP J. Albertos 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 0-1 GO-FO - high-A debut

RP S. Kobos 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 0-2 GO-FO - high-A debut

 

Myrtle Beach lost 6-2 Box Score

 

SS K. Made 0/4, E (1, throw)

2B F. Bautista 0/4, 3 K, E (2, throw)

CF Y. Piñango 0/3, K

LF M. Mervis 1/2, 2 R, 2 BB, K, 2 E (5, fielding, throw)

C P. Aliendo 2/4, K

RF J. Sierra 1/4, RBI

DH L. Verdugo 0/4, 3 K

3B F. Pertuz 1/4, 2B (2), E (2, throw)

SP M. Espinoza 4 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 5-6 GO-FO

RP G. Jaramillo 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1-0 GO-FO - stateside debut

RP J. Estrada 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1-1 GO-FO - season debut (first game since 2019 TJS)

[Hrubes20]

The MB website lists Herz as the starter for tonight.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Verdugo is back. Made leading off.

 

[Bertz]

Really like seeing Jensen bounce back after a disaster outing last time out. Same with Bain a few days ago.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

My guy is back!

 

[craig]

...Lansing announcers had Jensen 96-98

 

Thanks, that's helpful. Obviously consistent control will be a while coming, *IF* it ever does.

 

But it sure would seem that he's got the stuff, *if* he can locate it relatively often.

 

Twenty years ago, people liked "big, strong" starters, and were hesitant to project a shorter slimmer guy for rotation, back when they wanted starters to give 7 innings or maybe even more on good days, and to still get 6 on average days. And they thought short/slim guys would tire with that workload. But now in the twice-through-the-order 5-innings-is-just-fine era, I wonder if there is less hesitancy about a smaller guy being a rotation weapon? The twice-through mindset may help Jensen stay in rotation.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

My main problem is that it appears Jensen is throwing approximately 95% fastballs in the dominant starts he's had out of his last 3 starts.

 

That's all well and good at high-A but I would really like him to show a good secondary pitch in the pro game.

[CubsWin]

My main problem is that it appears Jensen is throwing approximately 95% fastballs in the dominant starts he's had out of his last 3 starts.

 

That's all well and good at high-A but I would really like him to show a good secondary pitch in the pro game.

I agree. He relied heavily on his FB tonight. But can you blame him? He had good control of it (command not so much) at 96 and the movement down and in to righties was sick. I saw at least one really good 12-6 tight curveball. Wished I'd seen that more often. The slider didn't look special tonight. Used it more as a "keep 'em honest" pitch.

[craig]

Jensen’s faced 539 hitters going back to 2019 and has an average 8.5% BB rate. I think control worries are more speculation than rooted in anything he’s done since becoming a starter. ......

 

I don't follow the college game that much, so maybe he was a control artist in college. I tend to think minor-league results are more predictive of big-league profile.

 

As a pro, I think Jensen's control is a legit issue to consider and wonder about. It's only 29.2 innings, 12 of them in 2019. But in 29.2 innings, he's got 20 walks and 6 HB. So, putting 26 guys on base via wildness in 29.2 innings, that's ~8 guys per 9IP. That's wild. This season it's been better, he's put 10 guys on in 17.2 IP, so that's basically 5 guys per 9IP. But even on his career-best outing yesterday, he still created 3 wildness baserunners in 5 IP.

 

1. Walks and HBP are one quantifiable measure of wildness. That's just one collection of data points.

2. Observation and qualitative scouting is another. Cal noted that he's been 95% fastball in his effective starts. CubsWin distinguished control from command. Draft-scouts were mixed on his control. AzPhil has observed control issues. Seems pretty widespread that there are observational uncertainties about his command and control.

3. His 5 starts have been inconsistent. Three have been excellent. Starts 2,3,5 combine for 15K/2BB/4H/13IP. Those are really nice numbers. Other two games were bad, 4BB/3HR/3.2IP. Inconsistency between good and bad starts almost certainly points to inconsistent control, at best. Or perhaps to inconsistent usage of pitches that lack control? Cal suggested 95% fastball in the good games? Maybe the bad games he threw more curves, without control, and hung a few and suffered accordingly? If you can't control it, hanging a few curves and sliders is perhaps where the HR's come?

 

Again, I'm not dismissing his potential. I'm just assuming that where his career goes depends on where his control and command go. If 2 starts out of 5 he's got no curveball, it might be bad. But I'm sure he was amped for his opening start, and since then had had only one bad game in four outings. One bad outing this early stands out, but maybe he'll be stacking good ones consistently from here? He's got the whole summer, and seasons ahead, to figure things out, to improve his control, to determine what works, or to figure out how to still compete on days when curve or slider isn't sharp. That's what the minors are for. Hopefully he'll start stacking good starts with increasing repetition and consistency. No purpose in rushing it.

 

Samardzija had the strong arm, but did NOT have consistent minor-league success for years. 6 seasons in the minors, 1.7 K/BB, only 6.5K/9, 4.4 ERA. We'd always hear he was working on something, split, curve, slider, or change, but for years it didn't click and I was a skeptic. But he eventually figured it out, and became a high-K major leaguer. Lot of searching and improvising to find what worked for him, and to increase his consistency. Jensen has lots of time to figure it out.

[craig]

I'm largely saying that neither you nor I nor Dorey know how he'll play out. He may have average or better control, and become a star starter. He may settle in as a star reliever. His potential ceiling is very high. Or he may have enough control inconsistencies that he's never a star in either role. Who knows? I don't, neither do you. Lots to hope on, little to be certain about.

 

The limited analogy to Samardz was simply two guys with great arms and high ceilings entering the pros, neither with settled and polished control of their offspeed. In neither case could you know after 30 innings in A-ball how well or how quickly their offspeed usage would eventually shake out, or whether they would end in rotation or relief.