4/12 Cubs (Alzolay) @ Brewers (Peralta) - 6:40 PM

[Sammy Sofa]

They got more lucky than anything else trying a brute force method of team building and player development that, yes, gave us that vaunted WS...but sandwiched it with a bunch of bull horsefeathers*.

What happens if the Astros draft Bryant instead of Appel.

 

The fact that the brain geniuses down in Houston passed on him is further evidence that this stuff is hard, no?

 

Or, again, that so much of it comes down to luck.

 

And that's not inherently a bad thing in and of itself. But it makes the, "these guys are fuggin' baseball GENIUSES," hype all the more hollow and frustrating when things go downhill so fast after years of sucking. Personally, I think it's more accurate to say it was a smart enough FO who got really lucky.

[Bertz]

What happens if the Astros draft Bryant instead of Appel.

 

The fact that the brain geniuses down in Houston passed on him is further evidence that this stuff is hard, no?

 

Or, again, that so much of it comes down to luck.

 

And that's not inherently a bad thing in and of itself. But it makes the, "these guys are fuggin' baseball GENIUSES," hype all the more hollow and frustrating when things go downhill so fast after years of sucking. Personally, I think it's more accurate to say it was a smart enough FO who got really lucky.

 

Sure, totally fair. But I think if you're taking that route you have to acknowledge how much of the quick decline has simply been bad luck. Saying the team made a bunch of 55/45 bets and got lucky on the front end and unlucky on the back is consistent. Attributing things like Bryant to luck and not acknowledging any bad luck with latter day stuff like Quintana is much less so.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sure. As with the good stuff, it's a combo. There's plenty of bad luck, but there's also been plenty of bad decisions, too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like to repeat this every so often even if it can never be proven true, but I still believe the core winning the biggest World Series in MLB history at such a young age probably did some damage to the future seasons. They were still good and all, but I'm convinced many of them probably lost some hyper focus after accomplishing what they did and their games just slowly got stale.

 

I kinda like that theory, though I'd apply the same critical eye to the FO and the coaching, too. I think everyone got really fat and happy and complacent after the WS win. We joked about the hangover talk, but that horsefeathers clearly lasted way too long in a lot of different ways.

 

I would say it's far more the front office/player acquisition part than the individual players. They saw their process rewarded, and as a result were very late to a lot of player development evolutions that have happened in the last 5 years. That bled through with not being willing to make opinionated changes to the roster until the time had passed(Schwarber) or it was forced on them(Russell, soon to be Baez/Rizzo/Bryant).

 

If there is a player-centric cause, part of me wonders if all the games aged the group faster than they might have otherwise. In the span of 3 years('15-'17) Bryant played 493 games, Rizzo played 508. Baez had 474 from '16-'18 and Contreras' 371 from '17-'19 is too many for a catcher.

[UMFan83]

It's almost kind of beautiful. I get to see the Cubs win a WS, but my interest in the team, and baseball as a whole, has almost been annihilated by everything that comes since (and, honestly, the years leading up to it, too). Stupid moneky's paw.

 

This has been my experience and one I anticipated happening if the time ever arrived that the Cubs somehow won a World Series. For me, I knew that my passion would wane a bit because it was the one thing I wanted to experience, and one thing that seemed like it couldn't actually happen. It's like beating Tyson for the first time on Punchout.

 

What I didn't expect is that I would be this passionless before the contracts of the core were even up. I've found this team to be horribly boring the last couple years and then ownership was the cherry on top. I also am pissed at myself that I've actually started to not like any of these players that won the only championship I cared about because of the train wreck this has become by the end. I'm really happy now that Dexter left, because I only have fond memories.

 

This sums up how I feel well. It's hard to describe to fans of other teams why 2018-2021 has been so unbelievably frustrating without sounding spoiled but its like the frustrations over underperforming expectations, combined with the political horsefeathers, the acquisition and enabling of bad character players, the ownership crying poor at the tail end of a designed competitive window, almost no help from the minors, FO proclaiming the offense is broken and doing virtually nothing to fix it. Now the window is going to end with a whimper - either WS heroes being traded for $0.25 on the dollar in July or them walking away from the team in November leaving us nothing but a compensation pick.

 

At least our farm system has risen to "average" so maybe we get some production out of it soon, and we should have money to spend, but if all the cornerstones of the franchise leave this offseason, its hard to see us avoiding another multi-year rebuild. In fact its probably better that we do as opposed to throwing money at cobbling together a 78 win team.

[Bertz]

At least our farm system has risen to "average" so maybe we get some production out of it soon, and we should have money to spend, but if all the cornerstones of the franchise leave this offseason, its hard to see us avoiding another multi-year rebuild. In fact its probably better that we do as opposed to throwing money at cobbling together a 78 win team.

 

I think how the pitching does this year will tell us how long of a dip there needs to be. With reasonable estimates for Arb raises, the Cubs have an ~$85M payroll heading into next next year. That's less than half of even this season's depressed payroll. So even with the PTR factor, there's something like a hundred million available to Jed this offseason. That's not enough to build a playoff caliber team on its own, but if the pitching is in mostly good shape it IS enough to build a playoff caliber offense on its own.

[UMFan83]

At least our farm system has risen to "average" so maybe we get some production out of it soon, and we should have money to spend, but if all the cornerstones of the franchise leave this offseason, its hard to see us avoiding another multi-year rebuild. In fact its probably better that we do as opposed to throwing money at cobbling together a 78 win team.

 

I think how the pitching does this year will tell us how long of a dip there needs to be. With reasonable estimates for Arb raises, the Cubs have an ~$85M payroll heading into next next year. That's less than half of even this season's depressed payroll. So even with the PTR factor, there's something like a hundred million available to Jed this offseason. That's not enough to build a playoff caliber team on its own, but if the pitching is in mostly good shape it IS enough to build a playoff caliber offense on its own.

 

But are we going to rebuild an entire offense by throwing money at FA? Maybe taking on salary in a trade? I just feel like the situation is not the same but similar to where we were in 2012. There are no franchise cornerstones to build around once Rizzo, Bryant and Javy leave. Our biggest assets are guys like Contreras, Hendricks and Ian Happ and you'd think the latter 2 are the closest thing we can call to franchise cornerstones due to being youngish, not sucking, and under contract for multiple seasons after this year. We can use the pitching lab to cobble together decent staffs (taking your example as an assumption), but I can't see us building a championship caliber club with FA money and very little young cheap talent. I mean there is literally 1 position player in the Top 30 of the Cubs farm system that is currently above A ball. Doesn't seem like we should expect anything there for awhile.

[Sammy Sofa]

Almost forgot how the Cubs managed to develop almost no pitchers of note for the better part of a decade. That sure kicked the legs out of everything.

[Derwood]

Almost forgot how the Cubs managed to develop almost no pitchers of note for the better part of a decade. That sure kicked the legs out of everything.

 

I thought we were applauding the "bats bats bats" drafting strategy since pitchers are hard to develop and are always hurt?

[Cubswin11]

I mean there is literally 1 position player in the Top 30 of the Cubs farm system that is currently above A ball. Doesn't seem like we should expect anything there for awhile.

Aging curves are getting younger and prospects are emerging at younger ages, the COVID year and this year may throw a wrench in that to a degree but it’s not crazy to see that all of Davis, Amaya, Howard, some of the Yu trade guys and some recent draft/IFA guys are ready to go within 2 years. Plus whatever we get in any sell off trades this year/offseason and any draft picks/IFA (if they really suck there’s extra IFA money and higher picks) guys the next 2 years. Plus there’s guys like Strumpf who won’t be a star but could be a solid player ready soon and there’s a lot of pitching closeish. I don’t think it will require a 2010-2014 type suck fest this time. Conceivably it’s just this year and next year of a semi tank/suck fest. There’s legit star potential in Davis, Howard, some of the Yu guys and Hernandez.

[Bertz]

At least our farm system has risen to "average" so maybe we get some production out of it soon, and we should have money to spend, but if all the cornerstones of the franchise leave this offseason, its hard to see us avoiding another multi-year rebuild. In fact its probably better that we do as opposed to throwing money at cobbling together a 78 win team.

 

I think how the pitching does this year will tell us how long of a dip there needs to be. With reasonable estimates for Arb raises, the Cubs have an ~$85M payroll heading into next next year. That's less than half of even this season's depressed payroll. So even with the PTR factor, there's something like a hundred million available to Jed this offseason. That's not enough to build a playoff caliber team on its own, but if the pitching is in mostly good shape it IS enough to build a playoff caliber offense on its own.

 

But are we going to rebuild an entire offense by throwing money at FA? Maybe taking on salary in a trade? I just feel like the situation is not the same but similar to where we were in 2012. There are no franchise cornerstones to build around once Rizzo, Bryant and Javy leave. Our biggest assets are guys like Contreras, Hendricks and Ian Happ and you'd think the latter 2 are the closest thing we can call to franchise cornerstones due to being youngish, not sucking, and under contract for multiple seasons after this year. We can use the pitching lab to cobble together decent staffs (taking your example as an assumption), but I can't see us building a championship caliber club with FA money and very little young cheap talent. I mean there is literally 1 position player in the Top 30 of the Cubs farm system that is currently above A ball. Doesn't seem like we should expect anything there for awhile.

 

There's definitely a huge variance based on what happens the next six months. The pitching being good going into the winter is a gigantic if, though there's a critical mass of legitimately interesting guys already in the org, and with the team being bad they'll have 6 months of innings to evaluate off of. Every pitcher they hit on this season frees up resources to spend on the offense.

 

And the offense needs significant resources. Though I will quibble with one thing you said. The position player group that's going to open at Tennessee is actually pretty strong, so I think near term help from the farm is more realistic than you think. Amaya, Davis, Strumpf, and Morel are all slated to open there. It's likely we see at least one bat out of that group in MLB as soon as this season. Add that and probably Hoerner to Willson and Happ, and you've gotta group that can be saved with 2-3 big bats. And there are a ton of good FA bats next winter.

 

When you factor in all the "if this goes right" things that are needed together, it's likely we'll be down for a few years (though scorched earth again seems unlikely). But I think the volume of current pitching and volume of future cash means there is a chance to avoid that prolonged dip.

[UMFan83]

I mean there is literally 1 position player in the Top 30 of the Cubs farm system that is currently above A ball. Doesn't seem like we should expect anything there for awhile.

Aging curves are getting younger and prospects are emerging at younger ages, the COVID year and this year may throw a wrench in that to a degree but it’s not crazy to see that all of Davis, Amaya, Howard, some of the Yu trade guys and some recent draft/IFA guys are ready to go within 2 years. Plus whatever we get in any sell off trades this year/offseason and any draft picks/IFA (if they really suck there’s extra IFA money and higher picks) guys the next 2 years. Plus there’s guys like Strumpf who won’t be a star but could be a solid player ready soon and there’s a lot of pitching closeish. I don’t think it will require a 2010-2014 type suck fest this time. Conceivably it’s just this year and next year of a semi tank/suck fest. There’s legit star potential in Davis, Howard, some of the Yu guys and Hernandez.

 

Lets be honest, the rebuild didnt start until Theo took over. Jim Hendry was still trying to cobble together a decent team with tape at that point considering he was trading for Garza and signing guys like Carlos Pena to fill holes.

 

Hard to find a point in time outlook of the Cubs roster/system at a given time but thinking back to the 2011-2012 offseason when Theo took over, it felt like our team was made up of overpriced declining veterans, and scrap pieces. The few exceptions were guys like Starlin (happ), Jeff Samardzija (hendricks), Cashner and I guess Sean Marshall. They had to run out the clock on players like Soriano (Heyward) until the years remaining on the deal were small enough to get anything of value.

 

The biggest differences are the Cubs farm system was beyond abysmal in 2011 vs average now, and the payroll will drop sharply rather than gradually like it did between 2011-2014. So maybe you're right. I just don't think its a good idea for Jed to be looking at all the payroll clearing up this offseason and thinking he can spend the Cubs back into legit contention. I mean I want the Cubs to spend the money because horsefeathers the Ricketts but I dont think spending a bunch of money to build off of a foundation that's pretty bare is wise.

[Cubswin11]

I mean there is literally 1 position player in the Top 30 of the Cubs farm system that is currently above A ball. Doesn't seem like we should expect anything there for awhile.

Aging curves are getting younger and prospects are emerging at younger ages, the COVID year and this year may throw a wrench in that to a degree but it’s not crazy to see that all of Davis, Amaya, Howard, some of the Yu trade guys and some recent draft/IFA guys are ready to go within 2 years. Plus whatever we get in any sell off trades this year/offseason and any draft picks/IFA (if they really suck there’s extra IFA money and higher picks) guys the next 2 years. Plus there’s guys like Strumpf who won’t be a star but could be a solid player ready soon and there’s a lot of pitching closeish. I don’t think it will require a 2010-2014 type suck fest this time. Conceivably it’s just this year and next year of a semi tank/suck fest. There’s legit star potential in Davis, Howard, some of the Yu guys and Hernandez.

 

Lets be honest, the rebuild didnt start until Theo took over. Jim Hendry was still trying to cobble together a decent team with tape at that point considering he was trading for Garza and signing guys like Carlos Pena to fill holes.

 

Hard to find a point in time outlook of the Cubs roster/system at a given time but thinking back to the 2011-2012 offseason when Theo took over, it felt like our team was made up of overpriced declining veterans, and scrap pieces. The few exceptions were guys like Starlin (happ), Jeff Samardzija (hendricks), Cashner and I guess Sean Marshall. They had to run out the clock on players like Soriano (Heyward) until the years remaining on the deal were small enough to get anything of value.

 

The biggest differences are the Cubs farm system was beyond abysmal in 2011 vs average now, and the payroll will drop sharply rather than gradually like it did between 2011-2014. So maybe you're right. I just don't think its a good idea for Jed to be looking at all the payroll clearing up this offseason and thinking he can spend the Cubs back into legit contention. I mean I want the Cubs to spend the money because horsefeathers the Ricketts but I dont think spending a bunch of money to build off of a foundation that's pretty bare is wise.

I always get the first Theo/rebuild year messed up. The system may be just a average right now, but it really is pretty close to a top 10 system and is only going to get stronger/grow. The basis for new rebuild is so much better/higher now. And there should be a lot of money to spend. FO are smarter now too, I don’t see Jed giving our Pujols type deals or whatever to horsefeathers us spending in to a rebuild. There is a path to matchup the prospects coming up and reasonable/smart spending and trading for the rebuild and not get stuck in payroll hell or whatever.

[Sammy Sofa]

Almost forgot how the Cubs managed to develop almost no pitchers of note for the better part of a decade. That sure kicked the legs out of everything.

 

I thought we were applauding the "bats bats bats" drafting strategy since pitchers are hard to develop and are always hurt?

 

Yeah, in terms of wasting resources to try and develop a bunch of homegrown starting pitchers; that was, rightly, very "horsefeathers pitchers." But their intention was never to essentially develop NO pitchers, starters or relievers, which is just barely what didn't happen.

[UMFan83]

Aging curves are getting younger and prospects are emerging at younger ages, the COVID year and this year may throw a wrench in that to a degree but it’s not crazy to see that all of Davis, Amaya, Howard, some of the Yu trade guys and some recent draft/IFA guys are ready to go within 2 years. Plus whatever we get in any sell off trades this year/offseason and any draft picks/IFA (if they really suck there’s extra IFA money and higher picks) guys the next 2 years. Plus there’s guys like Strumpf who won’t be a star but could be a solid player ready soon and there’s a lot of pitching closeish. I don’t think it will require a 2010-2014 type suck fest this time. Conceivably it’s just this year and next year of a semi tank/suck fest. There’s legit star potential in Davis, Howard, some of the Yu guys and Hernandez.

 

Lets be honest, the rebuild didnt start until Theo took over. Jim Hendry was still trying to cobble together a decent team with tape at that point considering he was trading for Garza and signing guys like Carlos Pena to fill holes.

 

Hard to find a point in time outlook of the Cubs roster/system at a given time but thinking back to the 2011-2012 offseason when Theo took over, it felt like our team was made up of overpriced declining veterans, and scrap pieces. The few exceptions were guys like Starlin (happ), Jeff Samardzija (hendricks), Cashner and I guess Sean Marshall. They had to run out the clock on players like Soriano (Heyward) until the years remaining on the deal were small enough to get anything of value.

 

The biggest differences are the Cubs farm system was beyond abysmal in 2011 vs average now, and the payroll will drop sharply rather than gradually like it did between 2011-2014. So maybe you're right. I just don't think its a good idea for Jed to be looking at all the payroll clearing up this offseason and thinking he can spend the Cubs back into legit contention. I mean I want the Cubs to spend the money because horsefeathers the Ricketts but I dont think spending a bunch of money to build off of a foundation that's pretty bare is wise.

I always get the first Theo/rebuild year messed up. The system may be just a average right now, but it really is pretty close to a top 10 system and is only going to get stronger/grow. The basis for new rebuild is so much better/higher now. And there should be a lot of money to spend. FO are smarter now too, I don’t see Jed giving our Pujols type deals or whatever to horsefeathers us spending in to a rebuild. There is a path to matchup the prospects coming up and reasonable/smart spending and trading for the rebuild and not get stuck in payroll hell or whatever.

 

I don’t know enough about the Cubs system to comment too deeply (maybe I should start paying attention again) but I feel like “just wait it’s about to be a top 10 system” is something that fans of any system that’s in that 11th-25th range are saying. But you could be right, it’s obviously had to accurately rank systems given the lack of milb the last 2 years. And I doubt Jed only targets 17 year olds during any sell off the Cubs may have

[UMFan83]

Almost forgot how the Cubs managed to develop almost no pitchers of note for the better part of a decade. That sure kicked the legs out of everything.

 

I thought we were applauding the "bats bats bats" drafting strategy since pitchers are hard to develop and are always hurt?

 

Yeah, in terms of wasting resources to try and develop a bunch of homegrown starting pitchers; that was, rightly, very "horsefeathers pitchers." But their intention was never to essentially develop NO pitchers, starters or relievers, which is just barely what didn't happen.

 

Right...you’d think you’d stumble into a 3rd/4th starter or back end bullpen arm by accident over the span of 9 years. Sure give them kudos for guys like Hendricks who they partially developed and give them credit for having decent pitching staffs the last couple of years with mostly junk (in the pen at least) but it’s crazy how little they got out of 9 drafts pitching wise