NSBB Mock NCAA Bracket 2021

[bukie]

We took a year off (along with everyone else) but we're back.

 

Let's make a mock bracket based on the latest in bracket making technology and committee selection tools.

 

The NCAA selection committee uses NET rankings now instead of RPI (which is a hugely good change). Latest NET rankings are here: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

 

Other useful measures:

KenPom, still the gold standard of team efficiency ratings: https://kenpom.com/

Torvik rankings, similar to KP but have a Wins above Bubble metric that is a valuable tool in relative strength of resumes for teams: https://barttorvik.com/#

ESPN's BPI ratings, aka a source of the Strength of Record metric, another valuable tool in relative strength of resume for teams: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

Sagarin ratings, now with a Recent metric showing how effective teams are more recently: http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

 

The rules:

- 68 team bracket, 31 auto bids (Ivy has opted out of the season), 37 at-large bids

- Entire tournament is in Indiana around the Indy area. Brackets don't have names yet but they won't be called East/West/Midwest/South this season.

- Schedules are different this year, with the First Four starting on Thursday instead of Tuesday and the first two rounds of games running into the following Tuesday.

- Committee will effectively seed on a straight S-curve this year with a few caveats: top 4 teams in a conference are in different regions, no rematches until the second round if possible, no conference 3x rematches until Elite Eight.

[bukie]

Also, if anyone else wants to chip in and have their picks affect the bracket, feel free, just don't troll the system on purpose. Colgate, despite their #9 NET ranking, is not a 3 seed.

[UMFan83]

Forgot about the games extending into the next week. That kind of sucks...nothing like following 3 exciting down to the wire games at the same time that first weekend.

 

Whats the first step?

[bukie]

First step is to compile a full list of teams that deserve at-large consideration.

[UMFan83]

 

Not sure if you want in any specific order but I did it by conference:

 

A10:

Saint Bonaventure

Saint Louis

VCU

 

AAC:

Houston

Memphis

SMU

Wichita State

 

ACC:

Clemson

Duke

Florida State

Georgia Tech

Louisville

North Carolina

North Carolina State

Syracuse

Virginia

Virginia Tech

 

 

Big East:

Connecticut

Creighton

Saint John's

Seton Hall

Villanova

Xavier

 

Big Ten:

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Maryland

Michigan

Michigan State

Ohio St.

Purdue

Rutgers

Wisconsin

 

Big 12:

Baylor

Kansas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas

Texas Tech

West Virginia

 

Mountain West:

Boise State

Colorado State

San Diego State

Utah State

 

 

MVC:

Drake

Loyola-Chicago

 

 

Pac-12:

Colorado

Oregon

UCLA

USC

 

SEC:

Alabama

Arkansas

Florida

LSU

Mississippi

Missouri

Tennessee

 

WCC:

Gonzaga

BYU

 

60 teams, presumably 11 of them will be autobids leaving 49 teams for 37 spots

 

FYI: I went for very liberal definition of considering here. 4 major conference teams (Arizona, Indiana, Ole Miss and Saint John's) are long shots at this point but conceivably still have a way in without an auto bid.

 

 

Edit: whoops I forgot Arizona has a postseason ban this year so taking them out I have 59 teams, with autobids likely 48 teams for 37 spots

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by UMFan83

[Old Style]

First step is to officially eliminate Dook from consideration.

[SouthSideRyan]

The first 2 rounds will run Friday-Monday. All first four games will be played on that Thursday. The 2nd weekend will run Saturday-Tuesday

[UMFan83]

The first 2 rounds will run Friday-Monday. All first four games will be played on that Thursday. The 2nd weekend will run Saturday-Tuesday

 

Oh so they aren’t spacing out the games, they are just shifting it by 1-2 days each round

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Michigan

Illinois

Iowa

Purdue

Ohio state

Wisconsin

Maryland

Rutgers

Michigan State

Indiana

Baylor

Kansas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma St

Texas

West Virginia

Texas Tech

Alabama

Arkansas

LSU

Florida

Tennessee

Georgia

Florida St

Virginia

VA Tech

Louisville

GA Tech

North Carolina

Clemson

Duke

NC State

Villanova

Creighton

Xavier

UConn

Seton Hall

St Johns

Oregon

USC

UCLA

Colorado

Houston

Wichita St

Memphis

SMU

St Bonaventure

VCU

St Louis

Gonzaga

BYU

Loyola

Drake

Western Kentucky

San Diego St

Boise St

Colorado St

Utah St

Winthrop

 

Edited March 6, 2021 by SouthSideRyan

[SouthSideRyan]

The first 2 rounds will run Friday-Monday. All first four games will be played on that Thursday. The 2nd weekend will run Saturday-Tuesday

 

Oh so they aren’t spacing out the games, they are just shifting it by 1-2 days each round

 

Right you just have to change around the days you call off work

[bukie]

I included a few additional teams that I think have better resumes than some of the teams previously mentioned, just so the conversation can be complete:

 

- Colgate (they're #9 in NET so hey, at least add them to the discussion)

- Kentucky (KP is actually fairly decent, mid-60s NET)

- Penn State (KP is like #34, #48 in NET, terrible overall record)

- Belmont (blew 2 games late that were meaningless for conference title, good overall record)

- Minnesota (their profile is surprisingly similar to MSU, but opposite trajectory)

 

That puts it at 68 teams total initially (seemed like a good number). Here are the teams:

 

 

Team Conference

Alabama SEC

Arkansas SEC

Baylor B12

Belmont OVC

Boise State MWC

BYU WCC

Clemson ACC

Colgate Pat

Colorado P12

Colorado State MWC

Connecticut BE

Creighton BE

Drake MVC

Duke ACC

Florida SEC

Florida State ACC

Georgia SEC

Georgia Tech ACC

Gonzaga WCC

Houston AAC

Illinois B1G

Indiana B1G

Iowa B1G

Kansas B12

Kentucky SEC

Louisville ACC

Loyola-Chicago MVC

LSU SEC

Maryland B1G

Memphis AAC

Michigan B1G

Michigan State B1G

Minnesota B1G

Mississippi SEC

Missouri SEC

North Carolina ACC

North Carolina State ACC

Ohio State B1G

Oklahoma B12

Oklahoma State B12

Oregon P12

Penn State B1G

Purdue B1G

Rutgers B1G

San Diego State MWC

Seton Hall BE

SMU AAC

St. Bonaventure A10

St. John's BE

St. Louis A10

Stanford P12

Syracuse ACC

Tennessee SEC

Texas B12

Texas Tech B12

UCLA P12

USC P12

Utah State MWC

VCU A10

Villanova BE

Virginia ACC

Virginia Tech ACC

West Virginia B12

Western Kentucky CUSA

Wichita State AAC

Winthrop BSth

Wisconsin B1G

Xavier BE

 

[bukie]

Next step is to list the top 10 and bottom 10 of those teams to place the top of the field and remove some of the excess.

 

For me:

 

Top 10:

 

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

3. Michigan

4. Illinois

5. Alabama

6. Iowa

7. Ohio State

8. Arkansas

9. West Virginia

10. Villanova

 

 

Bottom 10:

 

68. Kentucky

67. Utah State

66. Memphis

65. Duke

64. Stanford

63. Ole Miss

62. Belmont

61. Georgia

60. St. Louis

59. Minnesota

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by bukie

[bukie]

Also, Morehead State won the OVC final over Belmont, which means the only path for Belmont in the tournament is via an at-large bid.

[bukie]

KenPom strength of schedule rankings are hilarious right now:

 

[bukie]

The A-10 final will be St. Bonaventure vs VCU, which should allow bubble teams to breathe a sigh of relief, as the A-10 for once shouldn't steal a bid.

[bukie]

Winthrop wins the Big South convincingly at 22-1, might be a situation where they get seeded higher than an at-large, they've had a good run.

Liberty wins the A-Sun.

Loyola wins the MVC, Drake squarely on the bubble discussion

[UMFan83]

Next step is to list the top 10 and bottom 10 of those teams to place the top of the field and remove some of the excess.

 

For me:

 

Top 10:

 

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

3. Michigan

4. Illinois

5. Alabama

6. Iowa

7. Ohio State

8. Arkansas

9. West Virginia

10. Villanova

 

 

Bottom 10:

 

68. Kentucky

67. Utah State

66. Memphis

65. Duke

64. Stanford

63. Ole Miss

62. Belmont

61. Georgia

60. Colgate

59. Penn State

 

if its not too late ill do this later today

[bukie]

Next step is to list the top 10 and bottom 10 of those teams to place the top of the field and remove some of the excess.

 

For me:

 

Top 10:

 

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

3. Michigan

4. Illinois

5. Alabama

6. Iowa

7. Ohio State

8. Arkansas

9. West Virginia

10. Villanova

 

 

Bottom 10:

 

68. Kentucky

67. Utah State

66. Memphis

65. Duke

64. Stanford

63. Ole Miss

62. Belmont

61. Georgia

60. Colgate

59. Penn State

 

if its not too late ill do this later today

It's not too late, I already changed my mind for the last 2 of that bottom 10.

 

PSU's profile is super weird. 40th in NET, 3 wins vs Q1, one bad loss, 51st in strength of record. Honestly, if they somehow won 3 games in the BTT, beating Wisconsin and Iowa...they could be a tourney team at 13-14.

[bukie]

Automatic bids from the weekend:

Liberty - A-Sun

Winthrop - Big South

Loyola-Chicago - MVC

Morehead State - Ohio Valley

 

Tonight's winners of auto bids:

Southern - UNC Greensboro

Sun Bent - Appalachian State

 

Appalachian State won as the 4 seed, putting them in prime position for a 16 matched up with Michigan, so they can win on a 3 at the buzzer.

[SouthSideRyan]

Top 10

 

 

Gonzaga

Baylor

Illinois

Michigan

Alabama

Ohio St

Iowa

Arkansas

Kansas

West Virginia

 

[UMFan83]

Top 10:

 

 

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

3. Michigan

4. Illinois

5. Alabama

6. Iowa

7. Houston

8. Ohio State

9. Arkansas

10. West Virginia

 

 

Bottom 10:

 

 

1. Belmont

2. Kentucky

3. Georgia

4. Minnesota

5. Penn State

6. Ole Miss

7. Colgate

8. St. Johns

9. North Carolina State

10. Indiana

 

[SouthSideRyan]

Bottom 10

 

68 Colgate

67 Belmont

66 Kentucky

65 NC State

64 Memphis

63 Duke

62 SMU

61 Penn St

60 Seton Hall

59 Ole Miss

 

[SouthSideRyan]

5 bids up for grabs tonight

 

Colonial - (8) Elon vs. (6) Drexel

Northeast - (4) Mt. St. Mary's @ (2) Bryant

Horizon - (3) Oakland vs. (1) Cleveland St.

Summit - (4) Oral Roberts vs. (3) North Dakota St.

West Coast - (2) BYU vs. (1) Gonzaga

[UMFan83]

Automatic bids from the weekend:

Liberty - A-Sun

Winthrop - Big South

Loyola-Chicago - MVC

Morehead State - Ohio Valley

 

Tonight's winners of auto bids:

Southern - UNC Greensboro

Sun Bent - Appalachian State

 

Appalachian State won as the 4 seed, putting them in prime position for a 16 matched up with Michigan, so they can win on a 3 at the buzzer.

 

Still hurts, even though we've beaten App State in both basketball and football since that infamous game. But I'm sure the media will eat it up

[bukie]

Well...here we go.

 

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