2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Since FG placed FV ratings on their draft board and top IFA prospects, we can get an idea where Eric Longehangen would rate the Cubs new draft picks and Christian Hernández.

 

1. Ed Howard: 45+ FV

2020 July 2: Christian Hernández: 45

2. Burl Carraway: 40+

3. Jordan Nwogu: 35+

4. Luke Little: 35+

5. Koen Moreno: 35+

 

The Cubs only have one 45+ FV (Adbert Alzolay at 5) so Howard would come in at 5th or 6th in an updated ranking. The Cubs have one 45 FV prospect (Cole Roederer at 6, though we'd knock Roederer to 7 with the inclusion of Howard) so Hernández would be 7th or 8th. The Cubs have five 40+ FV (Chase Strumpf at 7, Ryan Jensen 8, Kohl Franklin 9, Cory Abbot 10 and Christopher Morel at 11; we'd have to knock each of them down two spots for the additions of Howard and Hernández), so Carraway would rank somewhere between 9-14. The Cubs have twelve 35+ prospects from 30-41 so Nwogu, Little and Moreno would slot in somewhere in that group.

 

For ease, I slotted each of the new prospects at the top of their FV groups:

 

1. Nico Hoerner - 50 FV

2. Brennen Davis - 50

3. Miguel Amaya - 50

4. Brailyn Márquez - 50

5. Ed Howard - 45+

6. Adbert Alzolay - 45+

7. Christian Hernández - 45

8. Cole Roederer - 45

9. Burl Carraway - 40+

10. Chase Strumpf - 40+

11. Ryan Jensen - 40+

12. Kohl Franklin - 40+

13. Cory Abbott - 40+

14. Christopher Morel - 40+

 

 

Ed Howard drops in at 5 (sandwiched between Brailyn and Adbert), Burl Carraway at 11 (between Kohl Franklin and Cory Abbott), Luke Little at 38, Jordan Nwogu at 40 and Keon Moreno at 43.

[Regular Show]

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Jim Callis will probably place Ed Howard 5th in our system behind Miguel Amaya and ahead of Cole Roederer.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA released their midseason top 30 lists, which primarily just added in new draft picks.

 

Ed Howard came in at 6 [behind, in order, Márquez, Hoerner, Davis, Amaya and Strumpf (??)], Burl Carraway 12, Koen Moreno was 18 and Jordan Nwogu 19.

 

Christopher Morel was the only other guy to move (probably for making South Bend’s roster), going from 27 in the offseason to 21.

[Regular Show]

On MLB Pipeline, Jim Callis wrote this:

 

I can't reveal exactly when MLB Pipeline will unveil its updated Top 100 Prospects and organization Top 30 lists, but I can tell you to look for them early next week. And I can share that 13 players from the 2020 Draft will crack the Top 100.

 

I listened to a podcast a while back with Jim Callis (I can't remember which one now...) and he's very high on both Ed Howard and Burl Carraway. I believe Ed Howard will be ranked 4th on the Cubs list ahead of Miguel Amaya when they update it. I think he also said he'd place Burl Carraway 6th or 7th on the list and that he thinks Ryan Jensen probably ends up being a reliever. If both end up being relievers he has Carraway ahead of Jensen. I believe that's what he said, but I need to go back and double-check. I mean we'll see the changes next week.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

26. Brennen Davis

34. Nico Hoerner

125. Brailyn Marquez

135. Miguel Amaya

140. Ed Howard

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Updated MLB Pipeline top 100: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

 

56. Hoerner

76. Márquez

86. Davis

[Regular Show]

Updated MLB Pipeline top 100: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

 

56. Hoerner

76. Márquez

86. Davis

 

Updated Cubs Top 30 prospects list:

 

5. Ed Howard

11. Burl Carraway

21. Jordan Nwogu

 

I thought Ed Howard would be one spot higher, but I guess Jim Callis changed his mind. Same thing with Burl Carraway. I don't think Luke Little is that close to joining the list. Jim Callis seems pretty down on him right now.

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Cubs are up to 21, 1 spot higher than their preseason ranking.

 

21

Last: 22

 

Chicago Cubs

 

2020 Preseason: 22 |2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

 

Top 100 prospects (2): LHP Brailyn Marquez (39), SS/2B Nico Hoerner (42)

 

The Skinny: Slowly but surely, Chicago’s system is improving. Breakout seasons from Brailyn Marquez and Brennen Davis in 2019 boosted its stock before the year, and the group got a talent injection from this year’s draft class. The draft group was led by SS Ed Howard, whom BA ranked as the No. 20 prospect available, and flanked by intriguing prospects like LHP Burl Carraway, RHP Koen Moreno, OF Jordan Nwogu and LHP Luke Little.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nico graduated from prospect status today.

[Post Count Padder]

Not sure why he didn't make the updated top 30 but MLB.com went with Alfonso Rivas as the Cubs' top unranked prospect:

 

Cubs: Alfonso Rivas, 1B/OF

 

The Cubs liked Rivas' hitting ability and hoped to draft him out of Arizona in 2018, only to have the Athletics take him in the fourth round. Acquired in a January trade for Tony Kemp, he could unlock more power if he alters his swing path and drive more balls in the air. He has more athleticism and arm strength than most first basemen.

And slides into the MLB top 30 with Nico graduating

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With Nico graduating, Brennen moves into BA’s top 100. He was already on FG and MLB’s top 100 lists.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

DJ Herz was added to the MLB Pipeline Cubs Top 30 after Zack Short was traded away.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankings

 

26. Chicago Cubs

2020 preseason rank: 23

2019 midseason rank: unranked

2019 preseason rank: unranked

Top 100 Prospects: Brailyn Marquez, LHP (No. 72), Brennen Davis, OF (No. 82)

 

The Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has excelled at producing hitters while struggling to develop pitchers, though Marquez could be a potential frontline starter.

 

26th!!! Dammit, Theo

 

FG has them at 24th. Obviously a little bit of the drop is related to Nico’s graduation but I suspect they’ll move up 2 spots in the next few weeks at the expense of the Angels and A’s when Adell, Luzardo and Murphy graduate.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

After about 10 days, the Cubs once again have three top 100 prospects.

 

69. Brailyn Márquez

79. Brennen Davis

100. Miguel Amaya

[CubinNY]

 

Cubs are up to 21, 1 spot higher than their preseason ranking.

 

21

Last: 22

 

Chicago Cubs

 

2020 Preseason: 22 |2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

 

Top 100 prospects (2): LHP Brailyn Marquez (39), SS/2B Nico Hoerner (42)

 

The Skinny: Slowly but surely, Chicago’s system is improving. Breakout seasons from Brailyn Marquez and Brennen Davis in 2019 boosted its stock before the year, and the group got a talent injection from this year’s draft class. The draft group was led by SS Ed Howard, whom BA ranked as the No. 20 prospect available, and flanked by intriguing prospects like LHP Burl Carraway, RHP Koen Moreno, OF Jordan Nwogu and LHP Luke Little.

How do the Dodgers do it?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Cubs are up to 21, 1 spot higher than their preseason ranking.

 

21

Last: 22

 

Chicago Cubs

 

2020 Preseason: 22 |2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

 

Top 100 prospects (2): LHP Brailyn Marquez (39), SS/2B Nico Hoerner (42)

 

The Skinny: Slowly but surely, Chicago’s system is improving. Breakout seasons from Brailyn Marquez and Brennen Davis in 2019 boosted its stock before the year, and the group got a talent injection from this year’s draft class. The draft group was led by SS Ed Howard, whom BA ranked as the No. 20 prospect available, and flanked by intriguing prospects like LHP Burl Carraway, RHP Koen Moreno, OF Jordan Nwogu and LHP Luke Little.

How do the Dodgers do it?

 

Seems like their strategy is to target and draft hitters who they can successfully change their swings, draft 2-way players who can improve when they focus on one side (of course everyone does this) and also take a lot of injured pitchers with past success, knowing that some will get healthy. I also like how they maximize depth by trading big leaguers in areas of strengths for prospects (Wood/Puig/Kemp for Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray; Maeda for Brusdar Graterol; Stripling for Kendall Williams). It’s a strategy teams like the A’s and Rays use but they don’t have the financial might of the Dodgers.

 

All that said, now that Lux graduated, Fangraphs dropped their farm system to 20, only 3 ahead of the Cubs.