Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-6-19

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa had the day off

 

Tennessee had the day off

 

Myrtle Beach won 10-1 Box Score

 

South Bend lost 6-2 Box Score

 

Eugene had the day off

 

AZL Cubs 1 lost 3-2 Box Score

 

AZL Cubs 2 won 5-1 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 1 won 6-4 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2 lost 4-2 Box Score

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brailyn will be making his Myrtle Beach debut today.

[CubsWin]

No idea on their stuff, but both DSL starters had good days today.

 

5'11" lefty Andricson Salvador has been hot lately combing for 25.2 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 35 K, 2.10 ERA, .196 BAA, 1.01 WHIP in July and August. He just turned 19 two weeks ago. This is his 1st pro season.

 

6'3" righty Luis Devers, who put up good numbers in his pro debut as an 18 year old last season but didn't get the call to the AZL this year, has also been impressive. Over his last 8 starts, he's pitched 38 IP allowing 30 H and 8 BB against 36 Ks for an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 1.00.

 

Obviously they're both fringe prospects at this point but worth tracking.

[CubsWin]

Marquez electric in his 1st High-A inning. Scoreless and hitless, he struck out 2, hitting 102 on the stadium gun multiple times.

[CubsWin]

FB at 100-101 and wicked slider at 94(!) in another perfect inning with 2 Ks in the 2nd inning. This guy has either unlocked something and taken a very large step forward in his development or his arm is about to fall off...

[CubsWin]

Wild in the 3rd. Two walks. Velocity dips to 97-100. Adrenaline wearing off? Still, though, hitless thru 3.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brendon Little promoted to Myrtle Beach too.

 

Luis Vázquez promoted to South Bend.

[Tryptamine]

5IP 0H 0ER 3BB 4K with 79 pitches for Marquez. I'd think he's done at this point.

[Deeg]

1 hit in 17 IP in his last 3 starts. He's warm.

[CubsWin]

5IP 0H 0ER 3BB 4K with 79 pitches for Marquez. I'd think he's done at this point.

Yep. He got much wilder in the 3rd and 4th giving up lead off walks in both. A little better in the 5th but not much. He threw 20 of his first 25 pitches for strikes. After that, just 30 of his next 54. His FB was sitting 97 in the later innings.

 

Even so, he was unhittable. High-A batters proved able to make more contact, fouling off a lot more pitches than his last two Low-A outings, but anything hit fair was an easy out. May have had some extra adrenaline in the 1st two innings and then the inevitable shakes once it dropped lower. I'm excited to see whether he can maintain his control once he settles in.

 

All in all, pretty horsefeathering good. He's now up to 13 consecutive innings without allowing a hit.

[We Got The Whole 9]

5IP 0H 0ER 3BB 4K with 79 pitches for Marquez. I'd think he's done at this point.

Yep. He got much wilder in the 3rd and 4th giving up lead off walks in both. A little better in the 5th but not much. He threw 20 of his first 25 pitches for strikes. After that, just 30 of his next 54. His FB was sitting 97 in the later innings.

 

Even so, he was unhittable. High-A batters proved able to make more contact, fouling off a lot more pitches than his last two Low-A outings, but anything hit fair was an easy out. May have had some extra adrenaline in the 1st two innings and then the inevitable shakes once it dropped lower. I'm excited to see whether he can maintain his control once he settles in.

 

All in all, pretty horsefeathering good. He's now up to 13 consecutive innings without allowing a hit.

So you watched this? I was looking at the log and was wondering how far those fly balls were going. He gave up 5, but I love how he ended his night with a double play grounder.

 

Hes got top 5-10 prospect potential.

[CubsWin]

Since his 1st pro appearance after a long layoff, Ryan Jensen has gone 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 13 K. With Marquez going crazy, suddenly there's some TOR potential in the system.

[CubsWin]

5IP 0H 0ER 3BB 4K with 79 pitches for Marquez. I'd think he's done at this point.

Yep. He got much wilder in the 3rd and 4th giving up lead off walks in both. A little better in the 5th but not much. He threw 20 of his first 25 pitches for strikes. After that, just 30 of his next 54. His FB was sitting 97 in the later innings.

 

Even so, he was unhittable. High-A batters proved able to make more contact, fouling off a lot more pitches than his last two Low-A outings, but anything hit fair was an easy out. May have had some extra adrenaline in the 1st two innings and then the inevitable shakes once it dropped lower. I'm excited to see whether he can maintain his control once he settles in.

 

All in all, pretty horsefeathering good. He's now up to 13 consecutive innings without allowing a hit.

So you watched this? I was looking at the log and was wondering how far those fly balls were going. He gave up 5, but I love how he ended his night with a double play grounder.

 

Hes got top 5-10 prospect potential.

Yeah, I watched. None of the fly balls got deeper than half way between the infield and the wall and they were all skied except for one that was more a line drive though would've landed foul if Kevonte Mitchell hadn't made a nice running grab. Even that was more of a looping liner.

 

He'd have to really improve his control/command to reach a top 5-10 ranking, but he's still 20 so he's got time to do it. The good news is he's already showing flashes of being able to do that for 2-3 innings at a time. If he continues pitching well at High-A the rest of the year, I'd certainly expect him to be top 100 after the season which I believe would make him the highest ranked Cubs pitcher since Dylan Cease.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Top 5-10 prospect in baseball is a long path for Marquez, who has alot more pro experience than alot of other 20 YO and under arms that have already hit top 100 lists. Some arms he'd have to pass that are the same age or younger: Gore, DL Hall (who throws slightly less hard than Marquez but also has three plus or better offspeeds), Grayson Rodriguez, Luis Patino, Matthew Liberatore, D. Garcia...

 

 

OTOH this is a pretty badass run

 

----

 

Alot going on in that Pelicans game beside Marquez...Ethan Roberts threw another couple clean innings out of the bullpen, Ademan had a couple hits, a walk, a SB, and a K in 5 PAs so far, Amaya's got a couple walks and a K in 5 PAs

 

----

 

Carlos Ocampo tonight: 4 IP / 6 Ks / 0 Hs / 1 BB, has a <1 ERA over his last 6 starts with 23 Ks in 22 IP, just 12 hits allowed including a HR. Should compete for a SB role next year at 21, but wouldn't be out of place in the NWL

 

I should have noted that I was talking about entering 2021 he could be in that conversation. They seem to have unlocked a more mechanically sound Marquez at South Bend. That was the gist of the coach talk around him at least. Hes been throwing more strikes. The stuff is certainly there. Next year he could have a meteoric rise if he can keep smoothing out those edges.

 

At least top 20 should be very much in reach IMO.

 

And by 2021 a couple of those guys will have graduated... although other guys will surely enter the picture as an offset.

[CubsWin]

I'm having difficulty seeing the importance of when you were signed as it pertains to how good of a prospect they are today. Entering an organization as an IFA when you're 16 or 17 vs. as a prep draftee at 18 or 19 doesn't really matter does it? Its how much you've developed since then, right? Am I missing something? Top prep pitchers get excellent coaching, too, don't they?

 

I mean if a prep pitcher at 18 gets taken high in the 1st round and does great right out of the gate but then progresses incrementally while an IFA pitcher is middling thru age 18 but then progresses and develops leaps and bounds in the next two seasons, what's the difference?

 

None of that is to say Marquez is a better prospect than player X or Y, I just am having a hard time understanding why that would count against him in a prospect evaluation of who they are today. I'm opening to learning, though.

[CubsWin]

I should have noted that I was talking about entering 2021 he could be in that conversation. They seem to have unlocked a more mechanically sound Marquez at South Bend. That was the gist of the coach talk around him at least. Hes been throwing more strikes. The stuff is certainly there. Next year he could have a meteoric rise if he can keep smoothing out those edges.

 

At least top 20 should be very much in reach IMO.

 

And by 2021 a couple of those guys will have graduated... although other guys will surely enter the picture as an offset.

No, I got that. I certainly didn't think you were referring to next spring.

 

He's still got a lot of development left to reach that kind of ranking, in my estimation. Consistently better control/command would likely do it, though, or at least get him close like somewhere in the top 20. He's only shown improved control very recently and only in spurts, so he's got a ways to go to get there.

[CubsWin]

I mean if a prep pitcher at 18 gets taken high in the 1st round and does great right out of the gate but then progresses incrementally while an IFA pitcher is middling thru age 18 but then progresses and develops leaps and bounds in the next two seasons, what's the difference?

 

I meant to reply earlier but was too busy being cool and turning 31. This is an interesting perspective on Marquez v the guys his age or younger already on top 100 lists and long getting TOR hype and looking at it probably offers one answer for why he's an big longshot for top 20 overall prospect by end of 2020.

 

Marquez''s track has been incrimental. DSL 2016, AZL 2017, NWL 2018, and finally full season MWL with some High A starts at the end. Alot of those guys, a mix of domestic and IFA arms, went straight from Rk ball to full season ball at 18-19 and have crushed it. Luis Patino, 19, has flat out dominated in the Cal (A+) all year as well as all the MWL last year at 18. The 20 YOs, Gore, Garcia, and Hall, have spent all year in High A with the former two breaking into and nailing AA ball. From that perspective, is Marquez the one who has developed leaps and bounds since he was 18 or is it the guys matching and besting his pace? This is before we get into how these guys have deeper repertoires, better command, better performance, better ARLs, higher bonuses, etc...

 

So why does that impact his shot at becoming a top 20 prospect in baseball in a huge way? For one, all those guys listed hit the top 100 by the time they were 19-20 and most were higher profile and/or more expensive amateurs. Marquez was not a particularly high profile amateur, noted for being large and throwing hard then too, and stateside scouts haven seen Marquez for three years when only now does he have a serious shot at even making a top 100 list or two. If/When he does this offseason, it's likely the back 25. He's already going to have to do some outstanding stuff to finish 2020 a top 50 guy, he'd basically have to 2005 Verlander the minors to break into the top 20.

 

Is any of this a career or even good SP dream killer? Nope, but it's pretty obvious when compared to same aged or younger guys, domestic or IFA on already top 100s he lags behind. Coming up right behind those guys are highly touted teenaged arms like Ethan Hankins and Simeon Woods-Richardson, themselves top 100 candidates this offseason. Those are just some of the pitchers in pro ball his age or younger he is competing against to be a top 20 overall, and not mentioning guys a little older or all the bats. Then there's always more drafts and IFAs...Maybe Gallardo 2022 or something

I appreciate the reply whenever it comes and happy birthday!

 

But you didn't really address the question I was asking. I totally get the logic you laid down. If a prospect is younger and better and there are a good number of them, it's going to make it hard for a slightly older pitcher to crack the top 20. Makes perfect sense, but I wasn't speaking in specifics of a top 20 in that post.

 

In other Marquez discussions, one of the reasons you weren't as high on him as some others here was the fact he's received professional coaching in the organization for 4 years (you originally said 5 but later corrected to 4) and, while always showing potential, remained only decent performance-wise until just recently.

 

In a non-Marquez related, hypothetical situation, I was wondering why it should count against a prospect if a he has spent 4 seasons in an organization as an IFA vs. 2 seasons as a prep draftee (or a month in the org as a college draftee) if they both have great stuff, they're essentially doing equally well at the same level and the same age later on?

 

I'm having trouble seeing that, but again, I'm open to learning.

[CubsWin]

I appreciate the reply whenever it comes and happy birthday!

 

But you didn't really address the question I was asking. I totally get the logic you laid down. If a prospect is younger and better and there are a good number of them, it's going to make it hard for a slightly older pitcher to crack the top 20. Makes perfect sense, but I wasn't speaking in specifics of a top 20 in that post.

 

In other Marquez discussions, one of the reasons you weren't as high on him as some others here was the fact he's received professional coaching in the organization for 4 years (you originally said 5 but later corrected to 4) and, while always showing potential, remained only decent performance-wise until just recently.

 

In a non-Marquez related, hypothetical situation, I was wondering why it should count against a prospect if a he has spent 4 seasons in an organization as an IFA vs. 2 seasons as a prep draftee (or a month in the org as a college draftee) if they both have great stuff, they're essentially doing equally well at the same level and the same age later on?

 

I'm having trouble seeing that, but again, I'm open to learning.

 

The non-Marquez hypothetical leaves me with too little information. Generally the same aged or younger guy who took two years to do what another took four to do is going to be seen as the better prospect.

I haven't referenced top 100 rankings in these posts, so I'm just going to respond to the quoted part that applies.

 

I get that the bolded part is the opinion you hold, I just don't understand why (that's why I keep saying I'm willing to learn not that you behave like some high-minded teacher).

 

For me, it doesn't matter a hill of beans whether some guy was in the DSL at 17 while some other guy was in high school at the same age. I think the coaching they're getting is pretty comparable, but that's neither here not there. What matters to me is how is the prospect doing now. If they're both 20 and both in High A and both doing really well, why would it matter how long they've been in some team's organization? It seems to matter to you and I'm curious to understand your insight.

[CubsWin]

I haven't referenced top 100 rankings in these posts, so I'm just going to respond to the quoted part that applies.

 

I get that the bolded part is the opinion you hold, I just don't understand why (that's why I keep saying I'm willing to learn not that you behave like some high-minded teacher).

 

For me, it doesn't matter a hill of beans whether some guy was in the DSL at 17 while some other guy was in high school at the same age. I think the coaching they're getting is pretty comparable, but that's neither here not there. What matters to me is how is the prospect doing now. If they're both 20 and both in High A and both doing really well, why would it matter how long they've been in some team's organization? It seems to matter to you and I'm curious to understand your insight.

 

I'm not understanding what the context of this is anymore to be honest. I don't care that some unknown guy was in the DSL at 17 while some other unknown player is in a US HS. My thing is that the 19-20 YOs already on top 100 lists are ahead of Marquez in a variety of ways, including but not limited to moving through the lower minors faster while hitting those lists, and that Marquez leaping into the top 20 prospects in baseball next year after not making a top 100 until maybe his 4th (hasn't happened yet) is extremely unlikely

It's all good, man. The context was from a post you made like week or so ago when you used the fact that Marquez was a 5th year pro (later corrected to a 4th year pro) to bolster your take that he might be the most overhyped Cubs left-handed pitching prospect since Andrew Sisco.

 

Most Hyped Power LH SP Prospect since Andy Sisco?

 

This was a fun start and all but Marquez is a 5th year pro in Single A with an ERA pushing 4 who allows 5+ runs per 9.

 

There's plenty of reasons to think that he's overhyped, I just didn't understand why a player being in the organization for 5 or 4 years would be a strike against him.

 

It's unimportant. I was just wondering what your thinking was and maybe I could learn something from your perspective. I learn a lot from the posters here.

[CubsWin]

It's all good, man. The context was from a post you made like week or so ago when you used the fact that Marquez was a 5th year pro (later corrected to a 4th year pro) to bolster your take that he might be the most overhyped Cubs left-handed pitching prospect since Andrew Sisco.

 

Most Hyped Power LH SP Prospect since Andy Sisco?

 

This was a fun start and all but Marquez is a 5th year pro in Single A with an ERA pushing 4 who allows 5+ runs per 9.

 

There's plenty of reasons to think that he's overhyped, I just didn't understand why a player being in the organization for 5 or 4 years would be a strike against him.

 

Oh, really it just seems like you stopped reading the sentence halfway through? Just reading that sentence cold it reads like "in Single A with an ERA pushing 4 and a 5+ RA9" is a big chunk of context behind mentioning 5 years (eventually corrected to 4)

To me, pointing out those statistics makes the point on its own. You're essentially warning us that, despite the improvement he'd made in the month of July, his season long numbers might be who he really is. A valid point. For me how long he'd been in the org to that point seemed neither here nor there. But since you included it, it got me thinking and wondering what that might tell us about a prospect. Does it matter when a player takes that step forward or just how good he is now? And I thought I'd ask your thoughts on it.

 

No worries, man. Its a small, unimportant thing. Thanks for responding though.

[CubsWin]

To me, pointing out those statistics makes the point on its own. You're essentially warning us that, despite the improvement he'd made in the month of July, his season long numbers might be who he really is. A valid point. For me how long he'd been in the org to that point seemed neither here nor there. But since you included it, it got me thinking and wondering what that might tell us about a prospect. Does it matter when a player takes that step forward or just how good he is now? And I thought I'd ask your thoughts on it.

 

No worries, man. Its a small, unimportant thing. Thanks for responding though.

 

I actually did try offering to explain my take on this directly at one point, maybe singling it out would help:

 

Beyond that it's just a matter of time - guys brought in as teens with the upside Cubs fans moreso than the wider world like to think Marquez has based on basically velocity get ID'd early, like all these 19-20 YO guys at his level of ball or above (more often above btw) hitting top 100s almost immediately and running up. I'm also assuming Top 100s have gotten better at identifying the cream of the crop, which they have. That teams and scouts and writers have had 4 years, three stateside, to see Marquez and only now maaaaaaybe this offseason will he squeeze into the back of a couple top 100s is a big indicator that he basically has no shot at becoming a top 20 prospect in baseball next year without doing something extraordinary and unexpected. The recent run is great, he's getting alot of good attention, but overall as a pro he hasn't kept up with the top guys his age like Gore, Hall, Patino, etc there either

 

To me noting the 5th (eventually corrected to 4th) year was just at the A ball level for a guy said to have TOR upside is as noteworthy as the other stuff. Teams usually aren't nervous about pushing badass SP prospects through the lower minors, even the ones brought in as teens, so the Cubs' snail pace with Marquez is one of the things that makes me leery of his perceived upside being higher than the real stuff. I don't believe national prospect coverage would treat a giant, healthy LH who sits high 90s heat with legit TOR potential so indifferently for so long in general either

Got it.

 

And to me, it doesn't matter whether he becomes a bad ass prospect in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th year in an organization. Once he's become a bad ass, he's a bad ass.

 

Thanks, man.