2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

[bukie]

Another year, another NCAA tournament. But this time it's different! Different selection criteria, different ratings, supposedly more transparency, so we'll see.

 

For example, a month ago, the committee revealed their "top 16 seeds" to that point:

East (Washington, D.C.): (1) Duke, (2) Michigan, (3) Marquette, (4) Iowa State

South (Louisville): (1) Tennessee, (2) North Carolina, (3) Purdue, (4) Nevada

Midwest (Kansas City): (1) Virginia, (2) Kentucky, (3) Houston, (4) Wisconsin

West (Anaheim): (1) Gonzaga, (2) Michigan State, (3) Kansas, (4) Louisville

 

What does it mean now? Very little, since each team has played like 10 games since then and teams have either jumped up into the top 16 easily (Texas Tech, LSU) or taken a nose dive out of the top 16 with some bad losses (Nevada, Louisville).

 

But, at least there's new ratings and they aren't nearly as bad as the RPI. They reward how well a team actually plays (up to 10 points, so...still needs work), which is giving teams a chance this year at an at large bid where last year they'd have been dead in the water:

- NC State (NET 35, RPI 117)

- Indiana (NET 56, RPI 83)

- Lipscomb (NET 45, RPI 72)

 

...and on the flip side, teams that may have been able to talk themselves into a bid solely on schedule strength last year are exposed for not being actually good:

- Arizona State (NET 71, RPI 40)

- St. John's (NET 62, RPI 43)

- Temple (NET 57, RPI 35)

 

And even Kansas has to actually play well instead of schedule well now (NET 18, RPI 1). Could you imagine Kansas somehow still being in the talk for a 1 seed this year?

 

Normally, I try to organize a committee to select the field starting next Wednesday, and people would participate at the beginning and trail off during the week, because it's a lot of work for them, and double the work for me. So this year, I'm turning it into a kind of competition. For fun, because I got no prizes. Post your bracket, and I'll score it.

 

Here's the scoring system:

- 1 point - Select a team in the field correctly (I mean, there are 32 auto bids, so you should practically be guaranteed 32 points!)

- 1 point - Place a team correctly within 2 seed lines (so if you put Illinois at a 7 seed and they end up a 9 seed, congrats, you get a bonus point!)

- 1 point - Place a team correctly on the correct seed line (So if you put Illinois as a 9 seed and they are a 9 seed, boom, 3 points!)

- 1 point - Place a team in the correct region (you know, West/Midwest/East/South).

- 2 points (1 per team) - Set a matchup correctly (so if you have Michigan vs Loyola as a 3-14 and the committee does this matchup, but as a 2-15, you get a bonus point)

 

So you could potentially get 5 points per team for a total of 340 points, at which point I'd ask which member of the committee you were.

 

I'll post all the auto bids and my logic process during the next two weeks, just like I've done in the past. If you want to post a bracket, just make sure you do it before the selection show starts (and I hope the committee doesn't pull shenanigans like showing an early bracket during the week) and I'll tally the scores. It will take me a bit because I've got to enter the information into the spreadsheet, but I'll try to have the scores posted before the tournament games start.

 

If it ends up just me, then fine, I'll post my own bracket and score myself, and everyone can criticize and deride my choices over the next two weeks, if that's how you want to play it.

[bukie]

As for the resources, here's the same tools the committee will have:

NET Ratings

Team-by-Team Nitty Gritty analysis

[UMFan83]

I am going to predict Illinois does not get a 9 seed.

 

I’ll play assuming I have time next weekend. Sounds like a fun change from past years.

[badger]

That Warren Nolan site is dope

[bukie]

Atlantic Sun final will be Lipscomb vs Liberty. Both have at least a fringe profile for consideration, but Lipscomb would be the team in better shape with a loss.

[NewUserName]

probably a dumb question.

 

Why are teams listed in different quadrants? Example. Iowa is a Quadrant 1 against Michigan but a Quadrant 2 vs MSU

[UMFan83]

probably a dumb question.

 

Why are teams listed in different quadrants? Example. Iowa is a Quadrant 1 against Michigan but a Quadrant 2 vs MSU

 

A Q1 game is a home game against a team whose Net Ranking is 1-30, or a neutral game against 1-50 or road game against 1-75. Michigan played Iowa on the road while MSU played them home and away, with the home game being Q2.

[bukie]

If you look at the nitty gritty sheet, it actually has the criteria for each quad tier in the header for the section.

[bukie]

Belmont-Murray State in the OVC final today. Both teams have reasonable at-large shots, maybe Belmont slightly more than Murray State IMO.

Interestingly enough, that is the only auto bid being decided today, as usually this Saturday is the final for 8-10 auto bids.

[bukie]

Big South champ Campbell lost in the Big South semis last night, but their profile is terrible (NET 224) and #2 seed Radford is easily the best profile (NET 132), so Campbell gets the NIT consolation prize.

[bukie]

In the Missouri Valley, #1 Loyola and #2 Drake advanced to the semis to face #5 Bradley and #6 Northern Iowa. The best profile out of the lot is Drake at NET 124, so again not really an at-large profile in the bunch.

[bukie]

In the SoCon, the quarters are played today, and the teams to watch are #1 Wofford (NET 14!), who is a likely at large bid, and #3 Furman (NET 43 with a win at Villanova). Could have an at large bid stolen rather easily here, as there are two other quality teams in the conference in UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State.

[bukie]

Murray State claims the first auto bid, defeating Belmont in the OVC final. Belmont to the at-large pool with a fairly decent profile.

 

In the MVC, top seed Loyola lost in the semis to #5 Bradley by a bucket. Despite Loyola's run this year, it's not likely their profile is good enough for an at-large spot, so they'll have to settle for an NIT bid. #2 seed Drake also lost, which pits #6 Northern Iowa vs #5 Bradley in the MVC final. Winner might be a 16 seed, which is weird for the MVC.

 

All four good teams made it to the SoCon semifinals, so the rest of that tournament should be a fun watch. Wofford and Furman have the best at large profiles of the four.

 

In the NEC, the top two seeds, St. Francis PA and Fairleigh Dickison are through to the final. Neither is a viable at large candidate, and the winner is a likely play in game candidate.

[bukie]

Liberty defeated Lipscomb to win the A-Sun. Lipscomb is an interesting and borderline at-large case with a bad loss to Syracuse not helping their cause.

 

Bradley wins the MVC.

 

Gardner-Webb wins the Big South, punching their first ticket to the dance.

 

In the SoCon, Wofford and UNC Greensboro made the final, leaving Furman looking at a somewhat bleak at-large chance.

[bukie]

Wofford wins the SoCon, and should likely get a single digit seed in the tourney.

 

Top seed Iona wins the MAAC, but is still a potential play-in game candidate.

[bukie]

CAA final will be #1 Hofstra vs #2 Northeastern. Hofstra is about even with Arizona State in profile.

 

Horizon final will be #1 Wright State vs #2 Northern Kentucky, neither of which is close to an at-large profile.

 

Summit final will be #4 North Dakota State vs #2 Nebraska Omaha, neither of which is close to an at-large profile. Top seed South Dakota State lost in the quarters and will be headed to the NIT.

 

Patriot final will be #1 Colgate vs #2 Bucknell, neither of which is close to an at-large profile.

 

WCC final will be #1 Gonzaga vs it doesn't really matter, but maybe St. Mary's.

[bukie]

Northeastern wins the CAA over Hofstra, which has a borderline profile.

 

Northern Kentucky wins the Horizon.

 

Fairleigh Dickinson wins the NEC and a spot in the play in game.

[UMFan83]

Down go the Zags and St. Mary’s has stolen a bid

[bukie]

Down go the Zags and St. Mary’s has stolen a bid

I mean, they were well into the at-large discussion anyway, but that discussion is over.

[bukie]

North Dakota State wins the Summit League, and another likely play-in spot.

[bukie]

Looking at the top of the bracket, the ten best resumes vying for a 1 seed:

 

Team              Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4
Gonzaga          4-3   6-0   9-0  11-0
Virginia        11-2   5-0   5-0   7-0
Duke             8-4   6-1   7-0   5-0
Houston          5-2   9-0   5-0  10-0
Kentucky        10-4   5-1   6-0   5-0
Tennessee        7-4   6-0   6-0   6-0
North Carolina   9-5   7-0   6-0   4-0
Michigan State  11-4   5-2   5-0   4-0
Texas Tech       6-5  10-0   3-0   7-0
Michigan         8-5   9-0   2-0   7-0

 

The way I see it, these are the only 10 teams that could play their way into a 1 seed this week. As of where teams are at right now, I'm still thinking Gonzaga is safe for a 1 seed, but perhaps not the overall #1 if Virginia/Duke/UNC wins the ACC tourney. The only losses in this group to potential non-tourney teams right now is Duke at home to Syracuse (with Zion!), MSU at Illinois, and Kentucky vs Seton Hall. MSU probably has the best wins overall, though, and if they get through the BTT with wins over IU/OSU, Wisconsin/Maryland and Purdue/Michigan, that may be enough. Duke has looked ordinary since Zion was out, but if he's back and healthy Duke is an easy #1 overall seed. Houston has a good resume overall, but they only had 6 games all year against likely tournament teams, 4 at home. Texas Tech was really only effective within their conference, as their best non-conference win was probably Nebraska, which didn't age well.

 

Here's my top 8 so far:

1. Virginia

2. Gonzaga

3. UNC

4. Kentucky

5. Duke

6. Michigan State

7. Tennessee

8. Michigan

[SouthSideRyan]

Gonzaga's one of those where the quadrant totals don't quite tell the full tale considering how thoroughly they beat up on teams relative to those other 9. Additionally their only other 2 losses besides SMC were to other teams in that top 10(and neutral/road at that.)

[UMFan83]

Down go the Zags and St. Mary’s has stolen a bid

I mean, they were well into the at-large discussion anyway, but that discussion is over.

 

The discussion yeah but they were out of virtually every bracket on BracketMatrix. That said it’s hard to tell exactly how the committee will select teams based on the NET rankings and SMC I believe was in the low 30s there.

[UMFan83]

The only losses in this group to potential non-tourney teams right now is Duke at home to Syracuse (with Zion!), MSU at Illinois, and Kentucky vs Seton Hall.

 

As much as I hate to admit it, Michigan lost to Penn State

[bukie]

The only losses in this group to potential non-tourney teams right now is Duke at home to Syracuse (with Zion!), MSU at Illinois, and Kentucky vs Seton Hall.

 

As much as I hate to admit it, Michigan lost to Penn State

Didn't catch it for being a Q1 loss. Not convinced PSU on the road is any worse than any other Q1 loss though.