International Free Agency, 2019-2020

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Taiwanese RHP Po-Yu Chen is the only July 2 IFA not linked to a team in Fangraphs’ top 30.

 

Full Report

Sits 90-92, above average changeup, solid average curveball at times, starter traits. Doesn't have a deal but multiple teams have seven figures of uncommitted pool money and some teams think he'll get $1 million or more. There's two other Taiwanese prospects with a consensus value in the mid-six-figures that are also 18-year-old high school seniors (RHP Lee, SS Ping), but Chen is regarded as the best of the bunch.

 

Also:

 

Even with early deals, there are still multiple teams with millions in uncommitted money (remember, each team’s bonus pool is now hard capped), some players who have yet to agree to deals, and perhaps even players who we don’t know about (often late-bloomers or late-defecting Cubans) and may become eligible to sign over the next 11 1/2 months. Teams can trade for additional bonus space to pursue these types of players outside of their assigned bonus pools. We anticipate some clubs will make a run at Cuban SS Yiddi Cappe, who is eligible to sign this year but has a $3.5 million deal for 2020, by trying to trade for enough pool money to make things interesting right now.

 

The Yankees did exactly this with Cuban SS Alexander Vargas last year. Vargas was set to sign with Cincinnati for $3 million next week, but the Yankees traded for enough pool space to lure him away with a $2.5 million deal last summer. If a team is unsuccessful in doing this (as a couple of clubs were when chasing Shohei Ohtani), they may end up spreading that money around to players in Asia (three Taiwanese players are referenced on our rankings), Mexico (a newly-opened market), or other less-scouted markets (for example, the Phillies signed Australian RHP Jake Gessner two weeks ago, before the last signing period closed).

[Hrubes20]

Whoa. No idea why, but I was under the assumption both Quintero and Made were going to get similar bonuses. Cubs obviously think this kid is pretty special to fork over $3 million.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Per Jesse Sanchez:

 

Ronnie Quintero - estimated $3 million

Kevin Made - $1.7 mullion

Brayan Altuve - $1 million

 

The Cubs pool this year is $5,398,300 so they’re over if Quintero got anything more than $2.6983 million.

 

I was thinking this. A lot more top heavy this year. Hopefully with similar results to their last extremely top heavy call (Gleyber and Eloy):

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Quintero was ranked 6th across the board by Ben Badler, Jesse Sanchez and Kiley McDaniel/Erik Logenhagwn. Quintero’s bonus is high in the strict cap era but the 4 bonuses we have for guys ranked ahead of him are all higher so his bonus and ranking are at least in line.

 

That said, we should be careful of solely using bonus figures since teams are starting to come to agreements with these kids at 14. There’s a chance these kids don’t progress in the next two years and the bonus no longer matches their talent. Reminds me of 2015 when the Cubs gave Jonathan Sierra their highest bonus but he was universally ranked behind at least Aramis Ademan, Yonathan Perlaza and Miguel Amaya and wasn’t even in BA’s top 30.

[CubsWin]

If the Cubs are over the limit or close to it and want to sign more kids, I guess that would mean some trades for IFA money are likely.

[weis21]

So, for just those three top prospects, the Cubs are already up to $5.7 million in spending, which is only a bit under their current $6.15 million pool. They could add more pool space in trade (they already added $750,000 when they traded Pedro Araujo to the Orioles), but they could also just look to make hay now with smaller signings. Lots of talent to be found in the $50,000 to $150,000 range.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/02/cubs-sign-the-top-catcher-in-the-ifa-class-to-the-largest-bonus-in-team-history/

[Regular Show]

If the Cubs are over the limit or close to it and want to sign more kids, I guess that would mean some trades for IFA money are likely.

 

I'm not too worried. When we trade for a reliever at some point this month the Cubs will probably ask for some IFA money to be included as well. Some teams aren't going to use all their pool money.

 

So these hard caps really suck and forces teams to do shady things like negotiating with players when they're only 13. MLB is working really hard behind-the-scenes to implement an international draft in the next CBA. Foreign MLB players are really opposed to a draft, but I think it's happening at some point unfortunately.

 

Anyway, I wish the Cubs had been even more aggressive before the hard cap system was put in place.

 

I'm surprised we haven't heard anything about Mexican prospects (maybe a down year or something) during this period. Cubs did really well in that area a few years ago.

[Hrubes20]

Quintero was ranked 6th across the board by Ben Badler, Jesse Sanchez and Kiley McDaniel/Erik Logenhagwn. Quintero’s bonus is high in the strict cap era but the 4 bonuses we have for guys ranked ahead of him are all higher so his bonus and ranking are at least in line.

 

That said, we should be careful of solely using bonus figures since teams are starting to come to agreements with these kids at 14. There’s a chance these kids don’t progress in the next two years and the bonus no longer matches their talent. Reminds me of 2015 when the Cubs gave Jonathan Sierra their highest bonus but he was universally ranked behind at least Aramis Ademan, Yonathan Perlaza and Miguel Amaya and wasn’t even in BA’s top 30.

 

The only thing you can use the signing bonus to guage is how much the team likes the prospect. From that point you just have to trust the scouting department to do their job.

 

I never understood why they didn't at least tweak their offer to Sierra, if the hypothesis about agreeing to the huge deal before his development stalled is true. Teams have backed out of deals recently if the prospect hasn't developed like he should, and the team has faced essentially zero repercussions. Hell, the Yankees nixed a deal of over $2 million to a kid who got fat and didn't progress, and just a few years later are signing a guy that some are saying is the best IFA ever. Obviously these are rare occurances in general, and you wouldn't want to make this a standard business practice. Perhaps the goodwill shown towards Sierra's trainer will pay dividends at some point.

[Hrubes20]

So, for just those three top prospects, the Cubs are already up to $5.7 million in spending, which is only a bit under their current $6.15 million pool. They could add more pool space in trade (they already added $750,000 when they traded Pedro Araujo to the Orioles), but they could also just look to make hay now with smaller signings. Lots of talent to be found in the $50,000 to $150,000 range.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/02/cubs-sign-the-top-catcher-in-the-ifa-class-to-the-largest-bonus-in-team-history/

 

Wasn't the Araujo money in the 2018-2019 period?

[Regular Show]

So, for just those three top prospects, the Cubs are already up to $5.7 million in spending, which is only a bit under their current $6.15 million pool. They could add more pool space in trade (they already added $750,000 when they traded Pedro Araujo to the Orioles), but they could also just look to make hay now with smaller signings. Lots of talent to be found in the $50,000 to $150,000 range.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/02/cubs-sign-the-top-catcher-in-the-ifa-class-to-the-largest-bonus-in-team-history/

 

Wasn't the Araujo money in the 2018-2019 period?

 

Yeah, that money only counted towards the last signing period and I believe the Cubs spent the majority of that money before the June deadline.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So, for just those three top prospects, the Cubs are already up to $5.7 million in spending, which is only a bit under their current $6.15 million pool. They could add more pool space in trade (they already added $750,000 when they traded Pedro Araujo to the Orioles), but they could also just look to make hay now with smaller signings. Lots of talent to be found in the $50,000 to $150,000 range.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/02/cubs-sign-the-top-catcher-in-the-ifa-class-to-the-largest-bonus-in-team-history/

 

Wasn't the Araujo money in the 2018-2019 period?

 

Yes. You can’t roll it over.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[weis21]

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/02/cubs-sign-the-top-catcher-in-the-ifa-class-to-the-largest-bonus-in-team-history/

 

Wasn't the Araujo money in the 2018-2019 period?

 

Yes. You can’t roll it over.

Yeah i don’t know anything about it. Just sharing what i saw over at BN

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Updated signing amounts:

 

Ronnier Quintero, C, Dominican Republic - $2,900,000

Kevin Made, SS, Dominican Republic - $1,500,000

Brayan Altuve, C, Venezuela - $1,000,000

 

That's $5.4 million, now just $1,700 over the cap.

[Hrubes20]

Updated signing amounts:

 

Ronnier Quintero, C, Dominican Republic - $2,900,000

Kevin Made, SS, Dominican Republic - $1,500,000

Brayan Altuve, C, Venezuela - $1,000,000

 

That's $5.4 million, now just $1,700 over the cap.

 

Fairly certain that one of them just got rounded up the additional $1,700.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Updated signing amounts:

 

Ronnier Quintero, C, Dominican Republic - $2,900,000

Kevin Made, SS, Dominican Republic - $1,500,000

Brayan Altuve, C, Venezuela - $1,000,000

 

That's $5.4 million, now just $1,700 over the cap.

 

Fairly certain that one of them just got rounded up the additional $1,700.

 

That's what I assume. Still surprised they went with the 3 7-figure guys route for this class.

[Hrubes20]

Updated signing amounts:

 

Ronnier Quintero, C, Dominican Republic - $2,900,000

Kevin Made, SS, Dominican Republic - $1,500,000

Brayan Altuve, C, Venezuela - $1,000,000

 

That's $5.4 million, now just $1,700 over the cap.

 

Fairly certain that one of them just got rounded up the additional $1,700.

 

That's what I assume. Still surprised they went with the 3 7-figure guys route for this class.

 

Same. I think I like the idea of going hard for 2 upper tier guys (like Quinterro and Made) and then spreading the remaining million+.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Highlights of the current proposed format:

 

• 20 round draft with hard slots and teams allowed to trade picks.
  
• First 3 rounds are protected if players don't sign.
  
• After the 20th round, players can sign for up to $25k.
  
• Draft order would not be based on record. Rather, the top of the order would rotate annually by division.

[Tryptamine]

 

Highlights of the current proposed format:

 

• 20 round draft with hard slots and teams allowed to trade picks.
  
• First 3 rounds are protected if players don't sign.
  
• After the 20th round, players can sign for up to $25k.
  
• Draft order would not be based on record. Rather, the top of the order would rotate annually by division.

 

Yup, because the owners need even more money to line their pockets. We can't have the kids getting their actual market value or anything.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This is for the next IFA class:

 

James : As far as the J2 for 2020 would it at least be possible to say what teams could have the top classes?

2:34

 

Kiley McDaniel: The big money deals (2M+) that we have currently are with MIN, TBR, CHC, DET, WSH, OAK, NYY. We believe 3.9M and 3.5M are the only bonuses over 3.0M at the moment. There’s another one that we’ve heard may be over 3M but aren’t sure yet about the figure.

[Named After Maddux]

This is for the next IFA class:

 

James : As far as the J2 for 2020 would it at least be possible to say what teams could have the top classes?

2:34

 

Kiley McDaniel: The big money deals (2M+) that we have currently are with MIN, TBR, CHC, DET, WSH, OAK, NYY. We believe 3.9M and 3.5M are the only bonuses over 3.0M at the moment. There’s another one that we’ve heard may be over 3M but aren’t sure yet about the figure.

 

That is exciting. Always good to see them associated with the top bonuses. The Cubs have been very strong in IFA and I don’t hate the overall approach (aggressive but spread out over several players), but I am hoping one of these years they identify and splurge on the top talent like Franco, Dominguez, etc.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A new name, possibly for this year for a team that hasn’t spent or next year:

 

 

An update on who hasn’t spent much yet (the Cubs are pushing to the top of their cap):

 

We don’t have perfectly up-to-date bonus pool totals, but sources indicate the teams with the top remaining pools include the Phillies (rumored to be closely following Taiwanese RHP Po-Yu Chen as well), Astros (who have a long recent track record of Cuban signings including Yuli Gurriel, Cionel Pérez, Rogelio Armenteros, and who traded for Yordan Alvarez shortly after the Dodgers signed him), Orioles (who are still looking for a headline international signing after passing on Yolbert Sanchez last winter), Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Rockies, and Indians. Or he could wait to sign until July 2, 2020, should another club offer him a substantial amount more than the aforementioned teams, which would puts other orgs, like the Rangers, into play.

[Regular Show]

A new name, possibly for this year for a team that hasn’t spent or next year:

 

 

An update on who hasn’t spent much yet (the Cubs are pushing to the top of their cap):

 

We don’t have perfectly up-to-date bonus pool totals, but sources indicate the teams with the top remaining pools include the Phillies (rumored to be closely following Taiwanese RHP Po-Yu Chen as well), Astros (who have a long recent track record of Cuban signings including Yuli Gurriel, Cionel Pérez, Rogelio Armenteros, and who traded for Yordan Alvarez shortly after the Dodgers signed him), Orioles (who are still looking for a headline international signing after passing on Yolbert Sanchez last winter), Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Rockies, and Indians. Or he could wait to sign until July 2, 2020, should another club offer him a substantial amount more than the aforementioned teams, which would puts other orgs, like the Rangers, into play.

 

He still hasn't been cleared to sign yet and it's going to be more complicated under Trump to sign Cuban players. I think he'll end up signing with some team next signing period.

 

The international amateur draft is another factor... I believe it'll happen during the next CBA after the 2021 season (which is great news for the Cubs).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Arizona Phil: https://www.thecubreporter.com/10232019/cubs-2019-20-international-signing-period-j-2-players

 

10/23 UPDATE:

 

The Cubs have officially signed five more 2019-20 J-2 IFA:

 

Jose Acila, P

R/R, 5'11 170, Age 19

VENEZUELA

 

Leury Gomez, P

R/R, 6'2 160, Age 17

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

 

Luis Maza, SS

L/R, 5'10 150, Age 16

VENEZUELA

 

Robinson Rodriguez, P

R/R, 6'2 190, Age 19

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

 

Albaro Santana, P

R/R, 6'2 190, Age 19

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

 

All five were "Signed for Future Service" (signed 2020 contract) and were assigned to DSL Cubs #1.

 

The signing bonuses have not yet been reported.

 

So the Cubs have signed nine J-2 IFA so far in the 2019-20 IFA that began on July 2nd.

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

8/5 UPDATE:

 

The Cubs have signed their fourth 2019-20 J-2 IFA:

 

Dawel Rodriguez, P

R/R, 6'3 200, Age 20

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

 

Unlike Altuve, Made, and Quintero, D. Rodriguez was not "Signed for Future Service," so he will likely be activated prior to the conclusion of the DSL season.