2019 Draft Thread

Regular Show · April 6, 2019

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Since the Cubs suck (and some of us enjoy it when they lose apparently) it might give them a high draft pick in next year's draft. One name to know right now: Pete-Crow Armstrong

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EDIT: Last thing is Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel both said they'll release Fangraphs' first mock draft sometime this month. It won't be very accurate this far out, but it'll be interesting to see. I could see the top 10-15 draft picks all being hitters this year.

Regular Show · April 7, 2019

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I'm sure the Cubs have scouted him a bunch since he's a local kid. I'm not that high on Priester and that's why I've never mentioned him. I talked about him briefly with UK a while back:

I gave him a late 1st/2nd rd. grade...

He's probably the 4th best pitching prospect I've seen in 10 years behind Zimmerman, Odorizzi , and Folty.

We both thought he didn't have that much projection left. Development of the changeup was crucial. I don't know if UK has gotten some more feedback, or if he's improved a lot since we last spoke. I think if he signs he's going somewhere in the 2nd round (probably overslot too).

Regular Show · April 8, 2019

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RHP Seth Johnson is currently ranked 37th on THE BOARD! over at Fangraphs and is rising. He's a little bit short, but has really good stuff.

Regular Show · April 8, 2019

So I decided to do a mock draft of my own. I want to make one before the guys over at Fangraphs come out with theirs. Let's see how close I can get. Not a lot of pitchers in this mock draft.

My 2019 MLB Mock Draft v1.0:

1. Baltimore Orioles - C Adley Rutschman (this one is pretty much a lock)
2. KC Royals - SS Bobby Witt Jr.
3. Chicago White Sox - 1B Andrew Vaughn (I think this is pretty close to being right. They prefer college bats and he's the best one at this point.)
4. Miami Marlins - SS CJ Abrams
5. Detroit Tigers - RF Riley Greene
6. SD Padres - LF/RF Hunter Bishop
7. Cincinnati Reds - SS Bryson Stott (I honestly have no clue who they'll take...)
8. Texas Rangers - CF Maurice Hampton
9. Atlanta Braves - 3B Josh Jung
10. SF Giants - RF Kameron Misner
11. Toronto Blue Jays - LHP Nick Lodolo (first pitcher selected finally)
12. NY Mets - OF JJ Bleday
13. Minnesota Twins - 1B/OF Michael Busch (makes perfect sense here. He's from Minnesota too)
14. Philadelphia Phillies - RHP Matt Allan
15. LA Angels - CF Corbin Carroll
16. Arizona Diamondbacks - SS Braden Shewmake
17. Washington Nationals - 3B/1B Brett Baty
18. Pittsburgh Pirates - SS Logan Davidson
19. Stl Cardinals - RHP Alek Manoah
20. Seattle Mariners - C Shea Langeliers
21. Atlanta Braves - RHP Jack Leiter
22. TB Rays - RHP Brennan Malone
23. Colorado Rockies - RHP Josh Wolf
24. Cleveland Indians - SS Nasim Nunez
25. LA Dodgers - RHP JJ Goss
26. Arizona Diamondbacks - CF Jerrion Ealy
27. Chicago Cubs - SS Will Wilson (good college bat that plays up the middle)
28. Milwaukee Brewers - 3B Keoni Cavaco
29. Oakland A's - LHP Zack Thompson
30. NY Yankees - RHP George Kirby
31. LA Dodgers - 1B/OF Michael Toglia
32. Houston Astros - LHP Hunter Barco

Edited April 8, 2019 by Regular Show

Regular Show · April 9, 2019

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Regular Show · April 9, 2019

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That's weird. Why does he crouch more as the ball is coming? I do not like that approach and setup, but he is super productive.

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Another good update. No mention of their mock draft, but they list some teams at the top and their preferences. The top 10 seems pretty fluid this year.

Hrubes20 · April 10, 2019

So I decided to do a mock draft of my own. I want to make one before the guys over at Fangraphs come out with theirs. Let's see how close I can get. Not a lot of pitchers in this mock draft.

My 2019 MLB Mock Draft v1.0:

1. Baltimore Orioles - C Adley Rutschman (this one is pretty much a lock)
2. KC Royals - SS Bobby Witt Jr.
3. Chicago White Sox - 1B Andrew Vaughn (I think this is pretty close to being right. They prefer college bats and he's the best one at this point.)
4. Miami Marlins - SS CJ Abrams
5. Detroit Tigers - RF Riley Greene
6. SD Padres - LF/RF Hunter Bishop
7. Cincinnati Reds - SS Bryson Stott (I honestly have no clue who they'll take...)
8. Texas Rangers - CF Maurice Hampton
9. Atlanta Braves - 3B Josh Jung
10. SF Giants - RF Kameron Misner
11. Toronto Blue Jays - LHP Nick Lodolo (first pitcher selected finally)
12. NY Mets - OF JJ Bleday
13. Minnesota Twins - 1B/OF Michael Busch (makes perfect sense here. He's from Minnesota too)
14. Philadelphia Phillies - RHP Matt Allan
15. LA Angels - CF Corbin Carroll
16. Arizona Diamondbacks - SS Braden Shewmake
17. Washington Nationals - 3B/1B Brett Baty
18. Pittsburgh Pirates - SS Logan Davidson
19. Stl Cardinals - RHP Alek Manoah
20. Seattle Mariners - C Shea Langeliers
21. Atlanta Braves - RHP Jack Leiter
22. TB Rays - RHP Brennan Malone
23. Colorado Rockies - RHP Josh Wolf
24. Cleveland Indians - SS Nasim Nunez
25. LA Dodgers - RHP JJ Goss
26. Arizona Diamondbacks - CF Jerrion Ealy
27. Chicago Cubs - SS Will Wilson (good college bat that plays up the middle)
28. Milwaukee Brewers - 3B Keoni Cavaco
29. Oakland A's - LHP Zack Thompson
30. NY Yankees - RHP George Kirby
31. LA Dodgers - 1B/OF Michael Toglia
32. Houston Astros - LHP Hunter Barco

Vaughn to KC at 2 seems like a dang near lock, doesn't it? Abrams and Witt have some nice potential to dream on, but Vaughn's bat looks like a game changer and has performed really well already at the college level and destroyed the Cape League this past summer.

Wilson concerns me, in that he's already struck out 30 times this season. I obviously realize that no player taken all the way down at 27 is going to be wart-free, but that's a pretty big damn wart IMO. He does seem to be the type of player this FO would like though, despite the lack of Cape League experience.

Hrubes20 · April 10, 2019

Wilson’s 30 Ks translates to an 18.6% K rate. He’s hitting .350/.429/.650 with 9 HRs in 160 PAs, career slash of .314/.389/.570 and 17% K rate

Exactly. That's higher than you want to see from a seasoned college hitter. Doesn't bode well as he moves up the ladder. I'm not sure where I saw it (or if I'm just making it up) but 15% K rate in college is the line that I use as the benchmark for a player entering the "too much swing and miss" area. KB was in the 14s. Schwarber was under 11%. Happ was over 19% in the freaking Big East. Just like in the bigs, a player can get around those issues a bit if they take loads of walks and have light tower power. Wilson is solid enough at doing both of those things, but isn't outstanding in either area. Certainly not enough to overcome a potential contact deficiency.

I actually took a quick look to see if I was making this up, but it plays out in the results. It's obvious that simply having a K rate under 15% the last year in college will not guarantee a 1st rounder's success, but it's really, really hard to find a relatively recent 1st round college pick that produced at the big league level with a K rate over 15% their last year in college. The list starts and ends with Aaron Judge, and he has arguably the most power in baseball and takes tons of walks.

Regular Show · April 10, 2019

Vaughn to KC at 2 seems like a dang near lock, doesn't it? Abrams and Witt have some nice potential to dream on, but Vaughn's bat looks like a game changer and has performed really well already at the college level and destroyed the Cape League this past summer.

Wilson concerns me, in that he's already struck out 30 times this season. I obviously realize that no player taken all the way down at 27 is going to be wart-free, but that's a pretty big damn wart IMO. He does seem to be the type of player this FO would like though, despite the lack of Cape League experience.

Yeah, so in the latest Fangraphs update they say Rutschman and Vaughn are the two top talents in this draft (which we all know). I could see KC taking him, but I can also see them taking someone with a higher upside and better overall tools like Abrams or Witt. Just to clarify, Vaughn has one of the best hit tools in the draft and very good power (better than Abrams and Witt). Also, it's a weird profile and I keep reading teams don't like a RHH 1B. Then again, Derrek Lee was pretty damn good...

You're right about problems with Wilson's profile. My favorite college SS prospect (not considering Bryson Stotts) is Braden Shewmake, but I'm not sure if he's making it all the way to 27. I have problems with both Logan Davidson and Will Wilson, but the talent is undeniable.

I'm not an expert and I have very little inside info right now. Just tried to do a fun mock draft and see how it turns out. I think it's pretty good overall, but it could be wildly off once we get closer to the draft and look back on it.

CaliforniaRaisin · April 11, 2019

BA has a mock draft out:

27 Carter Stewart
Eastern Florida JC RHP
Notes:

A college hitter, like Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt or Texas A&M shortstop Braden Shewmake, could make some sense here considering Chicago’s success in that territory, but they’ve also been inclined to go after JuCo pitchers at the back of the first round, taking lefthander Brendon Little with the 27th overall pick in 2017 out of State JC of Florida.

Regular Show · April 11, 2019

BA has a mock draft out:

27 Carter Stewart
Eastern Florida JC RHP
Notes:

A college hitter, like Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt or Texas A&M shortstop Braden Shewmake, could make some sense here considering Chicago’s success in that territory, but they’ve also been inclined to go after JuCo pitchers at the back of the first round, taking lefthander Brendon Little with the 27th overall pick in 2017 out of State JC of Florida.

Thanks. I was a huge fan of Carter Stewart last year and I'm still a fan now. Not sure how much that wrist injury affected him or if it's still bothering him?

I really don't think this Cubs FO is taking a pitcher in this draft. The pitching was WAY better last draft and we had a higher pick, and we still took a hitter. Maybe it was just because we really liked Nico Hoerner? I'm very curious what the draft board was like for the Cubs last year.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Regular Show

Regular Show · April 11, 2019

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Hrubes20 · April 11, 2019

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Is the inverted W still a thing? Because this kid has it at the 10 second mark.

Hrubes20 · April 11, 2019

BA has a mock draft out:

27 Carter Stewart
Eastern Florida JC RHP
Notes:

A college hitter, like Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt or Texas A&M shortstop Braden Shewmake, could make some sense here considering Chicago’s success in that territory, but they’ve also been inclined to go after JuCo pitchers at the back of the first round, taking lefthander Brendon Little with the 27th overall pick in 2017 out of State JC of Florida.

Thanks. I was a huge fan of Carter Stewart last year, and I'm still a fan now. Not sure how much that wrist injury affected him or if it's still bothering him?

I really don't think this Cubs FO is taking a pitcher in this draft. The pitching was WAY better last draft and we had a higher pick, and we still took a hitter.

I haven't checked in on him since early in the year, when everyone was clamoring over how down his stuff was. Has he gotten it back?

Regular Show · April 11, 2019

BA has a mock draft out:

Thanks. I was a huge fan of Carter Stewart last year, and I'm still a fan now. Not sure how much that wrist injury affected him or if it's still bothering him?

I really don't think this Cubs FO is taking a pitcher in this draft. The pitching was WAY better last draft and we had a higher pick, and we still took a hitter.

I haven't checked in on him since early in the year, when everyone was clamoring over how down his stuff was. Has he gotten it back?

To the level it was last year? No.

His stuff has backed up and his sick curveball isn't quite as sharp and powerful. It's more of a plus curveball instead of the 70-grade curveball from last year. I haven't read a report in a while, but it seems like scouts are down on him. His fastball is operating in the low 90's this year and the command isn't the same. Probably like 5-7 pitchers rated higher than him. Maybe more?

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That curveball was insane. Hope it comes back and that he stays healthy.

Regular Show · April 12, 2019

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-4-10-19/

From the latest K. McDaniel chat on Fangraphs:

Greg: What did you think about Matthew Alan last night?

Kiley McDaniel: He was 94-96 t97, with a 60-65 CB and CH only in warmups, then rain hit and he came back more 91-94 with a 60 CB and a little less command. Not the slam dunk top 15 pick type for me specifically, but I’m low on most prep righties and the industry says Allan is the consensus top guy (unless Priester keeps coming on like he did last time out).

Kiley McDaniel: I’m lower on prep RHP since most of them would go way lower with a tick or two less velo (which comes and goes more than you think, often with less than a week of rest it goes down a couple ticks in pro ball) and, obviously, the injury risk. I lean more toward average stuff with some projection/athleticism and grab a few for day one prices altogether.

Lilith: If neither Abrams nor Witt go in the top four, is it possible that one would be available for the Reds at 7?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, seems about 50/50 that one of them get there

Lilith: How high do you think Bishop can realistically rise in the draft? Is top 5 possible?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, sounds like as high as 3 and 4 they are looking for college bats and you could argue he’s the 3rd best one

Kyle: Kansas City went heavy college last year and you have them linked to Vaughn with their first pick this year also. Do you think they continue that with the picks that follow in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? If so any names they’re being linked to?

Kiley McDaniel: Got a lot of questions about this yesterday. People in the industry think it’s better than 50% that if the draft is today, KC takes Vaughn. When you’re picking 2nd in a draft with a clear-cut top 2 and everyone below that is scrambling to find guys they like and/or cut deals in the top 10, you just take the best guy.

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of KC fans were shocked that the buzz is their club would consider taking the clear best talent at 2 b/c they tend to take HS players. That doesn’t normally matter in this sort of situation and their GM was seen scouting amateurs for the first time in a long time last year…and they took all college players early. Even if that pick is a product of philosophy, I don’t think we know what KC is trying to do right now in terms of draft leanings, but I don’t think that matters for the first pick.

Kiley McDaniel: More and more, rebuilding teams now have an ETA in mind and build toward that, so I’m guessing that’s what going on in KC, but I don’t know for sure.

Kap: Is manoah a top 10 pick?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible, but I’d guess 11-15

Logan: You have Michael Busch listed as a 1B on the board now, and I think he was a RF on there previously. Is this because you now project he’s a 1B only fit? Has the athleticism deteriorated?

Kiley McDaniel: The corner OF looks were below average, so seems like 1B is more likely now. There’s a nonzero chance a club could try him at 2B and do some aggressive shifting around him ala late stages of Daniel Murphy, which I’m very into. I’m told Busch played a little bit of 2B on the Cape.

Dylan: Would Andrew Vaughn still have been a top-3 pick 5 years ago? Or has the success off other R/R college 1B like Alonso and Hoskins lowered the stigma against that kind of profile?

Kiley McDaniel: Go look at his numbers. Almost no one has ever done this before.

Matt Damon: Why is Espino falling!

Kiley McDaniel: Alright I’ll take one more time to be as diplomatic as possible on this. He was 96-100 (give or take, depending on the gun) in his first start at Hoover on March 8th, then I saw him March 21 and he was 92-95 t96. I talked to scouts that saw him the start between those and the start or two after the one I saw and they all said they got the same velo I did.

Kiley McDaniel: As stated earlier, I’m lower on HS RHP in general for the risk of the whole demographic

Kiley McDaniel: Specifically on Espino, there’s no projection, a really long arm action, and it’s mostly FB/breaker (though he has two breakers) at this point. I think it’s a positive for him to be throwing more 92-95 because the odds of blowing out when you sit 98 as a teenager for years at a time gets really close to a certainty, unfortunately by looking at the examples we have of that. When you’re looking at teenage pitchers and trying to project 5-10 years in the future what they’ll be, health is the biggest factor, so clubs are very particular about how a pitcher does it, thus the drastically varying rankings of HS pitchers bc every team has their own version.

Kiley McDaniel: So, when talking to scouts about how they rank the HS RHP, essentially all of them are throwing 92-95, give or take a tick at this point, and almost all of them flash 55 to 65 breaking balls, so the ones with a little more projection and polish tend to be ahead of Espino. Right now, that top tier is 15 through 40 (Allan, Malone, Priester, Leiter, Espino, Goss, Barco) and some teams will picking in that range will not consider taking some of them due to size, arm action, they don’t like HS RHP in general, medical, etc. There’s lots of variance in the ranking from team to team, but the guys at the top/middle/bottom of that tier tend to be in that general spot for most clubs.

Kiley McDaniel: And it’ll change between here and draft day, I want all of those kids to stay healthy and succeed and get drafted high.

Jon Jones: How confident are scouts on Nasim Nunez hit tool? Is his ceiling a 50 hit with like 60 defense or can the hit be above average to plus?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably go 55 hit, 40-45 future game power, 55-60 glove and run

So there were a bunch of questions on the draft and I didn't even include everything here. Lots of good updates and info on draft prospects. Nothing about the Cubs or their plans, and no mention of a release date for their first mock draft.

CaliforniaRaisin · April 13, 2019

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1116846897359196161

CaliforniaRaisin · April 14, 2019

Paging Tom. Toglia is having a damn good weekend against top-10 ECU.

Regular Show · April 15, 2019

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Hrubes20 · April 15, 2019

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I really like the look of this Volpe kid in the limited video available.

CP_414 · April 16, 2019

Is Logan Wyatt a first base only prospect, or does he have a chance to play elsewhere?

Regular Show · April 16, 2019

Is Logan Wyatt a first base only prospect, or does he have a chance to play elsewhere?

Eh, he's a below-average runner and I think he's going to slow down even more as he gets older. I think he'd be pretty bad in LF. I believe he's a 1B only prospect.

The bat is pretty solid and he has amazing discipline. Right now he has 43 BB to 25 K on the year. Overall, in college he's 109:68 BB/K. I think he'll post good OBP in the big leagues too, but maybe not a high-average.

Regular Show · April 16, 2019

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-two-new-jersey-high-school-prospects/

Another good update on RHP Jack Leiter and SS Anthony Volpe on Fangraphs. Both of them are rising prospects in this draft. It's not from Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen, but it's a good breakdown.

CP_414 · April 16, 2019

Is Logan Wyatt a first base only prospect, or does he have a chance to play elsewhere?

Eh, he's a below-average runner and I think he's going to slow down even more as he gets older. I think he'd be pretty bad in LF. I believe he's a 1B only prospect.

The bat is pretty solid and he has amazing discipline. Right now he has 43 BB to 25 K on the year. Overall, in college he's 109:68 BB/K. I think he'll post good OBP in the big leagues too, but maybe not a high-average.

I don’t watch a lot of college baseball, but just reading stat lines he’s one of my favorite bats that will probably be available when the Cubs pick. Him being a 1b only makes it tough to pick him, but if he could bounce around like Bellinger or Muncy and with the DH coming he’d be interesting.

Regular Show · April 17, 2019

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