2019 Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don’t have BA subscription. Can you post the top 10? Thanks

 

1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon St

2. Bobby Witt Jr, SS, HS (TX)

3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal

4. Riley Greene, OF, HS (FL)

5. CJ Abrams, SS, HS (GA)

6. Corbin Carroll, OF, HS (WA)

7. Shea Langliers, C, Baylor

8. Jerrion Ealy, OF, HS (MS)

9. Graeme Stinson, LHP, Duke

10. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

[Redfoot]

Interesting. Thank you

 

Can’t see Corbin Carroll going that high. Really nice player but he doesn’t have the upside for a pick that high. Same with Langeliers. Great glove just not sure he’s gonna hit. Jung is the guy i’m most interested in. If he can show he can stay at 3B he could go top 5 or even top 3. I love his bat.

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Not sure if this means it'll be harder to sign him away from going to school or not. He's a heck of a talent (not as talented as Kyler Murray though).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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Not sure if this means it'll be harder to sign him away from going to school or not. He's a heck of a talent (not as talented as Kyler Murray though).

 

Kiley said it was more likely Ealy would stick to football if he committed to Alabama or Clemson but baseball has a much better chance since he committed to Ole Miss.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fangraphs draft update: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updating-the-2019-2020-and-2021-draft-rankings/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[weis21]

i actually have an appointment with Bryant Packard on Monday. Trying to set up his summer/fall schedule so that he can finish out online after he gets drafted later this year. I'd have to check my notes but pretty sure he's my baseball player that is a big cubs fan. just like with dwanya williams-sutton, i'll be crossing my fingers the cubs grab him. i'm banking on one of my ECU players getting me cubs tickets one day and if i stay at this job that just keeps spinning it's wheels i'm looking for any possible perk i can.

 

really, really nice kid, though. i'll be rooting for him wherever he goes.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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Tough break (literally). I'm assuming it's his throwing hand/wrist right?

 

This injury will affect his power numbers, but it shouldn't affect his defense (I think), which is his calling card.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

After college baseball's opening week, it looks like West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah and Elon RHP George Kirby might be the biggest risers in this year's draft:

 

West Virginia righty Alek Manoah started the season ranked 44th on our latest rankings but will be higher in the re-rank next week after a loud season debut vs. Kennesaw State. The report on Manoah coming into this game was that he didn’t have the starter traits needed to comfortably see him turning a lineup over multiple times, but flashed two plus pitches in his mid-90s heater and slider. There was also some thought that he may need to watch his weight. His body composition was strong and likely contributed to improved feel to go along with the same high octane stuff: he sat 95-97 mph and located a 65-grade slider, occasionally mixing in an average changeup over the first few innings.

 

Manoah still had some reliever tendencies but they didn’t seem like long-term issues. Kennesaw State couldn’t hit 94-97 mph up in the zone, so Manoah just kept throwing it there and getting results. In pro ball, he’ll need to mix it up more, but you can’t blame him for taking the shortest path to 13 K’s over 6 innings. He held his stuff, sitting 93-96 just before he exited the game, and while his fastball was more of a blunt instrument, he showed good feel for locating his slider for a strike on his arm side and burying it as a chase pitch to his glove side. His control was average to slightly above and you can project the command to average if you believe he can be more precise with his fastball when he needs to be. When Manoah got in trouble a couple times, he kept his composure and worked his way out of it. Chatting with scouts and comparing this new version of Manoah to other players we just ranked, it seems like he’ll move into the 20’s along with rising, massive college arms like Jackson Rutledge and Miller.

 

On the other hand, our 58th-ranked prospect, Elon righty George Kirby, had lots of preseason late first round buzz and will now move into that range when we update our rankings next week. This week, he was up to 96, showing three above average-to-plus pitches and starter traits.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/our-week-1-college-scouting-notes/

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I've started doing research on draft prospects and watching video when I can.

 

1B/3B prospect Brett Baty is a weird player to evaluate. He doesn't look great defensively at 3B and looks pretty bad running to first. I don't think he sticks at 3B currently. Also, he's bigger than what he's listed at right now (6'3" and 210 lbs.) and will probably slow down even more as he matures. He doesn't look like a great athlete, but then you watch him play basketball and he's surprisingly agile and quick on the court. He looks pretty good. I have a hard time figuring that out...

 

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The swing is great and I have little doubt on the bat being good enough to get drafted in the 1st round. The problem is if he's playing 1B in the future (or has to move there eventually) then the bat has to be really special. I mean it could be and he's really performed against some tough pitching. He also has a strong accurate arm and has reached 90 mph on the mound.

 

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[OleMissCub]

Given Theo's propensity to draft dudes who just mash, I'll bring up Ole Miss junior Thomas Dillard (C/OF) as a name to watch the rest of the year. He led the nation in HR his high school senior year.

 

So far this year after 7 games he's at:

 

.522/.607/1.217, 23 AB, 12 hits, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, 15 RBI, 5 BB, and 2 SB.

 

This one on Saturday to take the lead in the 9th was obliterated.

 

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/updated-2019-2020-and-2021-draft-rankings-on-the-board/

 

Jackson Rutledge and Alek Manoah both look more starter-ish and have maintained their plus stuff. Graeme Stinson’s velo was down in his starting debut and scouts are concerned. Logan Davidson’s hit tool has always been a question and it still is. Michael Toglia was too passive in Kiley’s look this weekend and his righty swing leaves a lot to be desired. J.J. Bleday looks more athletic than some expected. Hunter Barco has a higher slot and firmer stuff. Seth Johnson was up to 98 mph in his season debut and many think he can start. Carter Stewart had a really rough start after a couple that were fine. J.J. Goss has had better velocity and consistency than teammate Matthew Thompson.

 

Hunter Bishop, Brett Baty and Rece Hinds have all hit more than expected and all have huge power; one likely ends up in the first round. Hunter Gaddis is generating buzz early, showing both above average stuff and feel. Brandon Williamson and Drey Jamison were mentioned last week in Eric’s Arizona looks as deserving of the Top 100; Grant Gambrell was the top new arm he saw this week. Tyler Dyson and Ryan Zeferjahn have both come out of the gate slowly; Dyson is joined in that regard by teammates Austin Langworthy and Wil Dalton. JuCo righty Orlando Ribalta has been up to 97 and shown starter traits, gaining steam with scouts despite not pitching last season.

 

So they mention a few other players at the beginning of the article. Adley Rutchsman has been moved up to a 60 FV (very surprising), and has now established himself as the clear #1 player in this year's draft class. Also, updated the list on THE BOARD.

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I'm very high on LHP Asa Lacy. I really like this pitcher and think he's improved a lot since HS. Not sure where he's listed in the early 2020 Draft rankings. Hope he stays healthy.

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/another-draft-rankings-update/

 

Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung and Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday both have some buzz in the industry as being in the mix to be the third-best college bat behind Oregon State C Adley Rutschman and Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn (both recent risers themselves); Jung and Bleday have moved up to reflect this. Bleday is off to a quick start and looks more athletic than he has in the past, while Jung is a hit-first type who could improve considerably with more loft in his swing in pro ball, but compares favorably to some recent top-10 overall college bats. Others college bats in that mix are UNLV SS Bryson Stott, North Carolina LF Michael Busch, and the big riser in the last update, Missouri RF Kameron Misner.

 

North Carolina State SS Will Wilson is also a rising player, as a potential 5 hit, 5 power middle infielder who likely ends up at second base. Some scouts see plus makeup and versatility with a chance that he may end up catching in pro ball and being an Austin Barnes or Will Smith type who can play every position on the field. Wilson’s polish, performance, and fit in today’s game could push him into the top 15 picks.

 

Clemson SS Logan Davidson and UNC-Wilmington SS Greg Jones each face questions about their hit tool, but Jones stays slightly ahead of Davidson because his upside is still much higher. On the flip side, Arizona State LF Hunter Bishop has 7 raw power and 6 speed and is hitting much better this year, so he’s rising until further notice.

 

Duke LHP Graeme Stinson looked like the clear top pitcher in the class when the college season was set to start, with scouts having confidence that his mid-90s fastball and 70 slider could transition to starting full-time. He’s performed well, but the velocity has kept creeping down — he was into the 80s this weekend — to the point where scouts are openly questioning if there’s an arm problem or if Stinson simply can’t start and needs to be seen as a reliever going forward. Even a worst-case scenario still has him in the top 30 picks or so, but his stock has dipped a good bit.

 

I can almost guarantee the Cubs are taking a bat in this upcoming draft. This draft class is really lacking in the pitching department. I've said this before and this is just my opinion, but I think we suck at identifying/developing pitching prospects. It's just not one of our strengths...

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From the latest K. McDaniel chat on Fangraphs:

 

SEC Guy: Thomas Dillard at Ole Miss has started off on a tear. I gather than positional limitations are a strike against him, but if he keeps mashing, could be make an appearance on the draft Board? Maybe a 2nd/3rd rounder?

 

 

Kiley McDaniel: He is on THE BOARD in the others of note, for we have noticed his hot start and I’ve always been a fan. Another 65 or 70 raw power type from both sides of the plate but has some bat speed, it isn’t just pure strength. Unfortunately can’t really catch so it’s probably a 1B fit, thus he needs to mash and have more BB than K in college, but maybe that’s happening. Could be a 40 in another month or so

 

LioneeR: I live near Southern Miss stadium. Does Southern Miss or any CUSA teams have any prospects that would be worth a watch?

 

Kiley McDaniel: So. Miss has RF/RHP Matt Wallner, who some clubs prefer as a pitcher, but a scout this week told me also has 80 raw power (I’ve seen 65-70 in the past)…so that’s pretty rare to have just around the corner. He’s had forearm issues tho, so has just been DHing lately

 

Mark: I guess I was more asking “do you think any high school pitchers *will* jump into the top 5?

 

 

Kiley McDaniel: No

 

 

Kiley McDaniel: really strong year for bats, weaker year for pitching. almost every team, all else being equal, wants bat over pitcher

 

 

Kiley McDaniel: and they’re getting it this year

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-2019-draft-rankings-updates/

 

Andrew Vaughn is now solidly No. 2 on the list and we’ve added a Top 100 ranking for him (52nd, just behind Mets 1B Peter Alonso). Vaughn has a little less raw power than Alonso, but the hit tool, frame, and defense are all superior, to go along with Vaughn being younger and also having comparable-to-better pitch selection. We still have Oregon State C Adley Rutschman solidly at No. 1 and well ahead of Vaughn (Rutschman would be 17th on the top 100), but catchers’ development paths are notoriously non-linear, so there is a little more uncertainty with Rutschman.

We were the high guys on UNLV SS Bryson Stott after a down summer because we saw him dominate in the previous spring. That faith has been rewarded with Stott’s hot start, so he’s stayed steady on our board at No. 5, just behind the top four players, though he’s rising for some in the industry with less history. There’s a similar story for Orlando-area prep RF Riley Greene, who showed more swing and miss late in the summer for some scouts, but has been blazing hot early and has an improved physique. He’s rising for many scouts but doesn’t have much further up to go for us.

The second tier of college bats behind Rutschman, Vaughn, and Stott is coming into focus, with North Carolina LF Michael Busch and Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung holding their spots, UCLA 1B Michael Toglia falling dramatically, Baylor C Shea Langeliers breaking his hamate, and Missouri RF Kameron Misner joining Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday in taking their spots. Bleday and Misner both have the look of above average regulars, with Bleday having more hit tool and Misner with more raw power.

On my current trip, I saw Arizona State LF Hunter Bishop twice. He has been going insane at the plate. He’s now solidly in the first round, with a chance to move into the top half if he continues at this rate (.414/.534/.948, 8 HR in 15 games) because the tools are real (65 raw power, 60 speed). Tonight, I’ll see Houston-area prep RHP Matthew Thompson, who is trending up after a velo dip, and was 93-96 mph in his last start. Wednesday, I’m planning to see dual-sport prep CFs Maurice Hampton and Jerrion Ealy in a tournament in Biloxi, Mississippi, where Hampton hit a homer on his first swing of the season. On Thursday (crosses fingers), there’s a great triple-up back in Houston, with JuCo RHP Jackson Rutledge at 2 pm, popup prep RHP Josh Wolf at 5 pm, and Thompson’s teammate RHP J.J. Goss at 7 pm; all three are projected for the top 50 picks right now. Wolf isn’t a new name, but his velo has spiked and he’s now just behind Thompson and Goss in the Houston prep arm hierarchy.

 

There is more in the link above and I didn't post the full thing. I'm really happy they're making these updates almost a weekly thing now.

 

They talk about SS Nasim Nunez and rising prospect 3B Keoni Cavaco. I occasionally chat with UK about draft prospects (and politics). I've liked Nunez for a few months now and mentioned him a few months ago while chatting with UK. UK said he's a rising prospect who could potentially be a "Dee Gordon-type hitter with better defense who sticks at SS" I believe. He's maybe the best defensive infielder in this draft class and a switch-hitter. Honestly, he just needs to get stronger and add some muscle. I don't think he's getting much bigger or an additional growth spurt, but that's okay. The power tool is the only tool scouts have listed as below-average. This is hyperbolic, but he kinda sorta reminds me of SS Francisco Lindor (from back in HS).

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Intriguing arm, but we're definitely taking an advanced bat in the first round. Too many good hitters in this draft.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1106291240851640320

 

Well, that sucks. Keith Law says Stewart still has the sick curveball, but it doesn't have the same power and tilt. More of a grade 60 CB. The fastball is down into the low-90's and the command is shaky. Still a first round pick, but probably more towards the end of the 1st round. He still has time to rebound. I think he's falling because his stuff is down, but also because of how many talented hitters there are in this draft.

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