MLBTR ARB ESTIMATES

[davell]

It was just broached by TT and UK in the minor league forum, talking about having money for a serious run at Harper......This wasn't directly mentioned there, but its worth talking about, with possibilities of extensions to anyone.

 

KB 8.9 (I was thinking a bit higher)

Rondon 6.2 (non tender candidate)

Hendricks 4.9

Leonys Martin 4.9 (non tender)

Wilson 4.3

Grimm 2.4 (non tender candidate?)

Russell 2.3(would figure a bit higher)

La Stella 1.0

 

That's 30 mill on the nose, not counting Martin. We've got 94.3 committed to the rest of the team, not counting auto renewals.....That includes the following players......

 

Rizzo, Zobrist, Heyward, Lester, Quintana, Strop

 

Setting up auto renewals for.....

 

Contreras, Baez, Happ, Schwarber, Almora, Montgomery, Edwards

 

Plenty of others that may factor in, like Caratini, Maples, Butler, etc....

 

Anyway, we'd be around 124, plus renewals, placing us under 130.

 

Needs?

 

Starting Pitcher, 6th Starter/Swing Type, 2-3 Pen Arms(Including a Closer type), backup Catcher, maybe a veteran 4th OF(Like Jay)

 

 

Should be easy to stay under the LT, before heading over it next year, for Harper, if we get lucky.

 

Anyway, lots of flexibility this off-season, I'd expect a decent amount of changes, especially dependent on how things finish up in the playoffs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Coincidentally enough I was bored on Friday and started plotting this out. I got 25 for the arb estimates minus Rondon and Martin so 23.8 seems about right.

 

This year I switched to looking at luxury tax amounts since I think the luxury tax is the closest limitation the team will have on payroll. That might not be the case in future years, but since they're so far below this year and they benefit from being under right before the 2018 FA class, that's what I'm going with.

 

 

The room to spend includes another 22 million taken out for benefit costs and MLB minimum for the remainder of the 40 man. That might be an overestimate, but better safe than sorry. The room to spend number goes down by 15 million in 2019(arb increases + Quintana's option year - Wilson) and adds another bullpen spot to fill. 2019 is also a potential year to go over the tax, although there isn't much payroll relief the year after(only Zobrist and any yet unsigned short term deals).

[Cubswin11]

What is the LT number/threshold?

[Splendid Splinter]

What is the LT number/threshold?

 

175ish IIRC

[davell]

What is the LT number/threshold?

 

 

The actual 2018 number is 197 and it jumps to 205 or 206 in 2019. But, there are things included in that number that we don't have an exact accounting of. Like TT and Splinter said, its probably safe to assume mid 170's, for where our payroll needs to be, in order to stay under currently.

 

We went over in 2016, definitely seems like we've stayed under for 2017 though. My guess is we'll stay under for 2018, before being completely fine going over in 2019. There's lots of rules involved with it, going over by a bit is FAR less costly than obliterating it, which I don't see us ever doing. Not sure I see ANYONE doing that anymore actually.

[Bote McBoteface]

Speaking of 2918-2019 FAs...thoughts on Manny Machado at SS?

 

He'll be the Yanks consolation prize when we land Harper.