2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP, ESPN, MLB Pipeline)

[Hrubes20]

No Cubs make BA's top 100. Eloy was 4, Gleyber 6. Somehow Acuña was rated ahead of Ohtani.

 

Man, Nate Pearson made their top 100. He's been getting a lot of love from Kiley McDaniel recently too. Hope the Cubs didn't take the wrong JC pitcher in last year's first round.

 

That's because Pearson actually backed up the pre-draft scouting reports in his short pro debut. Little wasn't anywhere close to his. Big drop in velocity combined with poor command of everything left a really sour taste in everyone's mouths. Here's hoping it was just fatigue from the full college season and then a layoff.

[Cubswin11]

Law's write up on Ademan and Alzolay

 

Ademan has emerged as the top position player prospect in a system thinned by promotions and trades. He signed with the Cubs for $2 million as a projectable middle infielder in the 2015 July 2 signing period and should fill out in time to turn his tools into real offensive production. He made his U.S. debut last year, playing the whole summer at age 18, and showed some of that promise in the Northwest League before a late promotion to low-A South Bend, where he was a little overmatched.

 

He is still very slight but has sneaky strength in his hands and wrists for some extra-base power you that wouldn't expect from his size. That latter factor gives reason to believe that when he fills out he'll be a hard-contact hitter capable of 20-plus home run seasons. He did hit 27 extra-base hits in 317 plate appearances last season despite his youth and size.

 

Ademan's a solid-average runner now but may slip a bit as he adds weight, and he's more likely to move to second base than stay at short, where he'll be the classic "offensive second base" type who plays adequate defense.

 

At age 21, Alzolay had a nondescript year in low-A South Bend's rotation and didn't even merit a mention in my Cubs org write-up last winter. He took a huge step forward across the board, finishing the 2017 season with a strong stint in Double-A and allowing the Cubs to deal right-hander Dylan Cease to the White Sox in the Jose Quintana trade.

 

Alzolay is mostly a fastball/curveball guy, 92-96 mph, with good command of his fastball to both sides of the plate working with a plus breaking ball that gets swings and misses. He also has a changeup that's less consistent than his other two pitches but is at least average when it's on.

 

He's on the smaller side and doesn't get much downhill plane on his fastball, so he's been a fly ball pitcher in the minors and could become homer-prone in the big leagues. But he rarely walks guys and is very aggressive on the mound, so as long as he can maintain that velocity he can get away with a few solo homers. He projects as an above-average starter but perhaps one who goes less than 200 innings. If his velocity doesn't hold up, he could be a dominant reliever with the curve as his out pitch.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm surprised Law had Ademan over Alzolay. It felt like he was the highest on Alzolay of everyone in the prospect media.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

From the BA chat:

 

Dan (Chicago): How far away was a Cub prospect?

 

Kyle Glaser: Aramis Ademan’s name came up as an option for the back, but he was never really in the lead among the other candidates he was facing off against.

 

Cease didn't make BA's top 100.

[Regular Show]

No Cubs make BA's top 100. Eloy was 4, Gleyber 6. Somehow Acuña was rated ahead of Ohtani.

 

Man, Nate Pearson made their top 100. He's been getting a lot of love from Kiley McDaniel recently too. Hope the Cubs didn't take the wrong JC pitcher in last year's first round.

 

 

Yeah, I wanted the Cubs to take N. Pearson in last year's draft with their top pick, but I was okay with B. Little.

 

I'm also worried we might have taken the wrong JC pitcher :? ...

[Cubswin11]

Law had Alberto's in his list of just missed, said he has top 50 potential. Assuming no trades I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4+ top 100 prospects next year and at least 2 inside the top 50.

[CubsWin]

Law had Alberto's in his list of just missed, said he has top 50 potential. Assuming no trades I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4+ top 100 prospects next year and at least 2 inside the top 50.

It's possible. Who are you seeing making the jump into the top 50 by next winter? For me, Ademan and Albertos have the best chances right now.

 

As currently perceived, there are only a handful of guys with that kind of ceiling in the organization. That could change going forward, of course.

[Regular Show]

Law had Alberto's in his list of just missed, said he has top 50 potential. Assuming no trades I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4+ top 100 prospects next year and at least 2 inside the top 50.

It's possible. Who are you seeing making the jump into the top 50 by next winter? For me, Ademan and Albertos have the best chances right now.

 

As currently perceived, there are only a handful of guys with that kind of ceiling in the organization. That could change going forward, of course.

 

A. Lange could vault back into being considered a top prospect. Even a top 50 prospect if he returns to the form he showed as a freshman at LSU when he was consistently hitting the mid-90s with his fastball.

 

If his plus fastball returns and he commands a plus-plus curveball (grade 70) for 100+ innings he'll definitely rocket up the prospect charts. I wasn't super high on Lange when we drafted him, but I think his potential and upside are intriguing. Like his upside could be turning into a better Justin Grimm with good enough command to remain a starter.

[Cubswin11]

Law had Alberto's in his list of just missed, said he has top 50 potential. Assuming no trades I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4+ top 100 prospects next year and at least 2 inside the top 50.

It's possible. Who are you seeing making the jump into the top 50 by next winter? For me, Ademan and Albertos have the best chances right now.

 

As currently perceived, there are only a handful of guys with that kind of ceiling in the organization. That could change going forward, of course.

Ademan and Alzolay for jumps inside top 50. Then Albertos, Lange and Little for possible top 100 on top of guys who emerge during the year/one of the 3 top 90 or so picks we have.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Law had Alberto's in his list of just missed, said he has top 50 potential. Assuming no trades I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4+ top 100 prospects next year and at least 2 inside the top 50.

It's possible. Who are you seeing making the jump into the top 50 by next winter? For me, Ademan and Albertos have the best chances right now.

 

As currently perceived, there are only a handful of guys with that kind of ceiling in the organization. That could change going forward, of course.

Ademan and Alzolay for jumps inside top 50. Then Albertos, Lange and Little for possible top 100 on top of guys who emerge during the year/one of the 3 top 90 or so picks we have.

 

If Adbert pitches well enough to jump into the top 50, he'll probably have lost his prospect eligibility by the end of the season.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB.com will release their top 100 Saturday at 7 pm CT:

 

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Their team top 30s will come out after that. Keith Law's Cubs top 10 (along with the rest of the NL Central) will come out next Friday.

[CubsWin]

It's possible. Who are you seeing making the jump into the top 50 by next winter? For me, Ademan and Albertos have the best chances right now.

 

As currently perceived, there are only a handful of guys with that kind of ceiling in the organization. That could change going forward, of course.

Ademan and Alzolay for jumps inside top 50. Then Albertos, Lange and Little for possible top 100 on top of guys who emerge during the year/one of the 3 top 90 or so picks we have.

 

If Adbert pitches well enough to jump into the top 50, he'll probably have lost his prospect eligibility by the end of the season.

Yeah, that was my thought, too.

[CubsWin]

This got me thinking, though. Which Cubs prospects have the ceiling to become top 50 prospects in the next 2, maybe 3 years. I know that time frame is a bit far out and opens up the list to a lot more names, but so many of the Cubs better prospects are at the lower levels right now. I have a lot of faith (perhaps too much) in the Cubs developmental staff and philosophy (as well as their scouts) so my list is influenced by their presence.

 

I'd be really interested to hear who you think has that type of ceiling. For me, it includes (not necessarily in order of likelihood):

 

Ademan

Albertos

Amaya

Lange

Velazquez

Little

De La Cruz

Marquez

Galindo

Wilson

 

and from the totally guessing section:

 

Danis Correa

Florencio Serrano

Luis Verdugo

Fernando Kelli

 

Who would you add? Who do you think I'm wrong to include? Who do you think has a chance, the ceiling to become a top 50 prospect?

[Tim]

A heck of a lot of pitchers are a tweak of the mechanics, or a new pitch, or an increase in control, or some small adjustment away. Unless a guy maxes out at 85 mph, any of them could take a leap. Heck it could be just staying healthy for a guy like De la Cruz.

 

It's much harder for hitters.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This got me thinking, though. Which Cubs prospects have the ceiling to become top 50 prospects in the next 2, maybe 3 years. I know that time frame is a bit far out and opens up the list to a lot more names, but so many of the Cubs better prospects are at the lower levels right now. I have a lot of faith (perhaps too much) in the Cubs developmental staff and philosophy (as well as their scouts) so my list is influenced by their presence.

 

I'd be really interested to hear who you think has that type of ceiling. For me, it includes (not necessarily in order of likelihood):

 

Ademan

Albertos

Amaya

Lange

Velazquez

Little

De La Cruz

Marquez

Galindo

Wilson

 

and from the totally guessing section:

 

Danis Correa

Florencio Serrano

Luis Verdugo

Fernando Kelli

 

Who would you add? Who do you think I'm wrong to include? Who do you think has a chance, the ceiling to become a top 50 prospect?

 

Add Abbott and Estrada, take out de la Cruz, Galindo and Wilson.

 

(Though Tim's point about pitchers developing is well taken. Guys like Corey Kluber, José Quintana and Jimmy Nelson were never top 100 prospects.)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Cubs in the MLB.com top 100. Eloy was 4, Gleyber 5, Cease 61.

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/bigchrislit/status/957423268167905280[/tweet]

 

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/brandonkay34/status/957424193779519488[/tweet]

 

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[dfnowak]

While the Cubs FO has done well at the top of drafts, in international free agency and trades, is it fair to criticize the lack of prospects from rounds 2 and on (besides Cease)? From looking at these top 100 prospect lists, there are a number of players drafted after the 1st round and competitive balance rounds.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

While the Cubs FO has done well at the top of drafts, in international free agency and trades, is it fair to criticize the lack of prospects from rounds 2 and on (besides Cease)? From looking at these top 100 prospect lists, there are a number of players drafted after the 1st round and competitive balance rounds.

 

From a pure prospect rankings sense, there's been some intentional trade-offs that have been made. In the last 30 months they've traded elite prospects(Jimenez, Torres) and Top 100-caliber depth(Cease, Candelario, Paredes) along with promoting and using Top 100 players(Contreras, Almora, Happ). We're also 1.5 seasons since the 2016 draft where the Cubs didn't have a pick til the 3rd round, which is a sweet spot where most high picks still have the potential to stick on lists before reality smacks them in the face, so this will likely represent a floor in terms of prospect depth on lists.

 

As far as non-first round pick draftees go, I think it's fair that they haven't had as much success as they want or we would hope they'd have. They did go very pitching heavy outside the high first rounders which itself is going to ramp up the variance, and the shuffling they did with Benedict and their quotes about improving their development of young pitchers indicates they think they can do better there. They also have started getting comp picks again, this past draft they had one for the first time since their first draft in 2012 and they'll almost certainly get 2 this year. That's always been a part of the draft success they had in Boston(e.g. the 2005 draft where they had 6 of the Top 60 picks and got Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Buchholz) so hopefully it continues.

[Regular Show]

While the Cubs FO has done well at the top of drafts, in international free agency and trades, is it fair to criticize the lack of prospects from rounds 2 and on (besides Cease)? From looking at these top 100 prospect lists, there are a number of players drafted after the 1st round and competitive balance rounds.

 

I think it's totally fair to criticize the Cubs for their lack of success in finding prospects/pitchers after the 1st round of previous drafts (besides D. Cease and I guess Z. Godley).

 

I think maybe they've revamped their approach and hired a new group of scouts at the lowest levels? Like TT said hopefully hiring Benedict will help in pitcher development. I'm certainly disappointed with the lack of success in properly identifying/developing pitching prospects from the previous draft classes (2012-2017) under Jason McLeod.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

While the Cubs FO has done well at the top of drafts, in international free agency and trades, is it fair to criticize the lack of prospects from rounds 2 and on (besides Cease)? From looking at these top 100 prospect lists, there are a number of players drafted after the 1st round and competitive balance rounds.

 

I think it's totally fair to criticize the Cubs for their lack of success in finding prospects/pitchers after the 1st round of previous drafts (besides D. Cease and I guess Z. Godley).

 

I think maybe they've revamped their approach and hired a new group of scouts at the lowest levels? Like TT said hopefully hiring Benedict will help in pitcher development. I'm certainly disappointed with the lack of success in properly identifying/developing pitching prospects from the previous draft classes (2012-2017) under Jason McLeod.

 

They didn't hire new scouts but they've revamped what they look for in scouting amateur arms:

 

The Athletic[/url]"]Benedict is just one of the ways the Cubs are trying to improve their record with developing young pitchers. When I spoke to amateur scouting director Matt Dorey prior to last June’s draft, he mentioned an altered approach with regards to scouting pitching for he and his staff.

 

“I think we realized we were narrowing the pool of pitching to the extent that it gave us really limited options, essentially handcuffing us a little bit from the pool of players we were picking from,” Dorey said. “This [current] approach is keeping more guys alive, not being so stringent or strict on the biomechanics, arm action, deliveries, but focusing more on performance, guys that miss bats, guys that have stuff that we think can play at the big-league level. Then really leaning on our development staff to iron out any deficiencies they have in their game. Whether it’s control, breaking ball development, whatever it may be.”

[We Got The Whole 9]

They did well in that aspect FWIW. I imagine we are at the bottom in terms of major injuries to prospects in the last 5 years. But they missed out on the high ceiling arms in doing so.

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk

[wvcbxl]

They did well in that aspect FWIW. I imagine we are at the bottom in terms of major injuries to prospects in the last 5 years.

 

I was listening to the (Belgian) radio on the way home from work, and apparently the Cubs have hired Steve Janssen as a minor league pitching coach (presumably for Mesa).

Don't worry if the name doesn't ring a bell - Steve is a Belgian national who's been coaching for the Dutch national team for the last 18 years (he was a catcher during his playing days for two different teams in Antwerp, as well as for the national team)

 

I found it interesting that he specifically mentioned the high injury rate of pitchers in the US as one of the reasons for the Cubs' organization to take a different approach, explaining the job offer he received (which is, granted, an very unexpected move)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA ranked the Cubs farm system 28th overall.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

BA ranked the Cubs farm system 28th overall.

[Hrubes20]

Yeah, it's certainly not surprising that we're ranked so low. After the trades made to add quality at the big league level, the remaining talent is at the lower levels.