2018 Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No, I'm reading the same tea leaves. Where we differ, I guess, is I'm ok with ANY of that group at 24. I don't see enough separation to pay more for a singular kid in that group. I'd take the cheapest one, so I have more for the lotto tickets later.

 

If the FO decides otherwise and pays up for a guy in the 1st, I'll be excited. Because I figure they obviously are sold on a guy. But, if they're of the opinion that these guys(maybe even add a few I forgot) are close, then I'd hope they save money for more kids later.

 

Ah, I probably wouldn't even include half that group in the same tier of talent or upside. Rocker and Hankins (top of the draft types esp Rocker, worth overslotting), then Edwards/Naylor/Turang/Groshans (slot), and then Rodriguez/Schnell (clear underslot guys)

 

I'm assuming you're referring to Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Schnell? I don't know why you have them listed as clear underslot guys... They go in the first round in many, many mock drafts and I doubt they'll be there when the Cubs select again after their first round pick.

 

In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if Rodriguez goes higher than any of the others listed there.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm assuming you're referring to Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Schnell? I don't know why you have them listed as clear underslot guys... They go in the first round in many, many mock drafts and I doubt they'll be there when the Cubs select again after their first round pick.

 

That's just a personal valuation of their talent and it's my way of saying I would not even kinda sorta consider either at 24. I've consistently said Rodriguez's big booster is that he's very signable while having enough tools and percieved upside development ceiling potential to sell as a first round talent. If a team in the first is looking for quantity rather than quality approach while still taking a prep, he's of interest. Schnell's the same thing but a bat, newer to the first in mocks with signability consistently factored into his jump.

 

I'm not saying anything wild and crazy here - year after year guys rise and fall on signability rather than talent. I doubt you'd find many in baseball who actually believe Rodiguez or Schnell are better talents than a Rocker, Hankins, or Parker Meadows buuuuut they're most definitely going to be easier to negotiate with.

 

BA and MLB.com both have Schnell ahead of Meadows. BA by ~20 spots.

 

MLB.com has Rodriguez ahead of Rocker.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA and MLB.com both have Schnell ahead of Meadows. BA by ~20 spots.

 

MLB.com has Rodriguez ahead of Rocker.

 

Oh, I'm aware of that. All of them have changed their rankings like a half dozen times this spring alone and I've long expressed a general disdain for rankings. Hell, MLB.com's own writeups give Rocker a 70/60 on his fastball/breaking ball to Rodriguez's 60/55, Schnell average raw power to Meadows' above average, so there are non-talent reasons that factor into these things.

 

The point is that your comments that those two are underslots at 24 and inferior prospects to Meadows and Rocker is certainly not obvious.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1002956243453919232?s=21

[Hrubes20]

Another one:

 

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/1003150043736489984?s=20

 

 

Have we ever had this much pre-draft info on private workouts?

 

Nope. God bless Yagyu and his twitter searching.

[davell]

Wes is an absolute beast.

[UK]

I was more impressed with Thomas than I expected to be.

 

I wasn't going into it thinking there would be power potential but there is.

 

He'll be a plus hitter, plus defense, plus runner with a 50 arm and probably 45 power. He has an advanced approach.

 

 

Tough sign as he's a two sport athlete at TCU as well as his dad is the strength guy for the Sox.

 

His comp to me is Ellsbury.

 

I would not be upset if the Cubs got him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I was more impressed with Thomas than I expected to be.

 

I wasn't going into it thinking there would be power potential but there is.

 

He'll be a plus hitter, plus defense, plus runner with a 50 arm and probably 45 power. He has an advanced approach.

 

 

Tough sign as he's a two sport athlete at TCU as well as his dad is the strength guy for the Sox.

 

His comp to me is Ellsbury.

 

I would not be upset if the Cubs got him.

 

Nice.

 

Have you seen Schnell?

[craig]

No idea what the Cubs strategy will be, in terms of under-or-over-slotting at 24. I imagine they can only have contingent strategies that depend on player evaluation and availability.

 

Mocks vary widely from one analyst to another, and likewise change substantially by the month (or week) for a given media analyst. Jim Callis interview noted that there seems to be an even wider variance in valuation on guys this draft than most others.

 

I don't know the players or how the Cubs value guys, but several thoughts:

1. It's a lot more likely to get a star at 24 than in the 60-80 range.

-***IF** there's a guy they evaluate really favorably, I'd think over-slotting would make sense, even if they need to underslot on one or more of the 2nd-round picks. Going BPA 1st-round makes a ton of sense, even if it costs $$$ for 2nd-rounders.

2. I'd not be surprised if there was somebody the Cubs ranked among their top-15 guys still on the board at 24. (Given how differently teams evaluate guys.)

3. Going BPA may not mean over-slot. Cubs do their own evaluation. Just because a guy demands over-slot doesn't means Cubs scout him better.

4. Cubs strategy will allow for many possibilities; what actually happens depends on scouting evals and on who's left.

5. Many promising prospects are willing to sign for slot in rounds 1 or 2, rather than going to (or back to) college. So going overslot in round 1 does not preclude getting really good top-80 guys in round 2, even at-or-below slot. Likewise Monday may draft really well even if they take nothing but slot guys.

[Regular Show]

I feel like with our first five picks (24, 62, 77, 78, and 98) we're going to target 3 hitters and 2 pitchers. Obviously, things change and the draft can go in any number of different directions so this might not happen...

 

Probably, 3 of those players will be college performers (1 pitcher, 2 hitters) most likely. One prep hitter and one prep arm, but that might change. I could see the Cubs targeting two prep hitters if they take one at 24. There should be a better balance between pitchers and hitters this year.

 

The Cubs system definitely leans more towards pitching prospects right now and that's a dangerous place to be at. The majority of these pitching prospects are going to flame out or have little impact, especially with our history of developing pitchers right now.

[UK]

I was more impressed with Thomas than I expected to be.

 

I wasn't going into it thinking there would be power potential but there is.

 

He'll be a plus hitter, plus defense, plus runner with a 50 arm and probably 45 power. He has an advanced approach.

 

 

Tough sign as he's a two sport athlete at TCU as well as his dad is the strength guy for the Sox.

 

His comp to me is Ellsbury.

 

I would not be upset if the Cubs got him.

 

Nice.

 

Have you seen Schnell?

 

No. From what I heard, he's a sandwich guy.

[davell]

Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

 

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

 

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.

 

They said there's 5 or 6 tough signs, among high schoolers. Rocker wants around top 15 money. But, they didn't act as if he wouldn't get it either. Mike Siani, a UVA guy, evidently is a tough sign. As is Matt McLain, if he's not taken in the top 40, or given that type of money.....

 

If McClanahan drops, it's because teams in the 10-25 range didn't really see him much. He was a top 5 guy most of the year, so many teams weren't at his starts when he was going well. Now that he's struggling, the middle teams have seen him, but don't have enough looks from his good starts, to likely just take a shot..... Hence, why if he drops, it's probably pretty far.

[Regular Show]

By the way I was looking at a very thorough list of all the prospects in this draft and there are some GREAT baseball names in this draft class:

 

Cross Factor (real name), Jake Slaughter, Mike Million, Giovanni Dingcong (for a second I thought his last name was DINGDONG and I knew we had to draft him, but it was not meant to be), Brock and Blake Deatherage (just get rid of the 'e' in the middle of your last name guys and fulfill your destiny as Sith lords), Steele Walker, Seth Beer, Tradd James (WTF kind of name is Tradd???), Owen Sharts and some foreign kid who just moved to the US named Suq Madiq.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS - You probably figured this one out, but that last name on the list is not a real player/prospect lol. Colbert fans know it well...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

 

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

 

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.

 

Yeah, this stuff on Virginia is one of the main reasons so many people are critical of the draft prospects of so many Virginia players.

[Regular Show]

BA on Rocker a couple days ago:

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/joey-bart-kumar-rocker-top-2018-mlb-draft-prospects-from-georgia/

 

2. Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga. (BA Rank: 13)

 

HS • 6-4 • 240 • R-R •

 

Rocker is one of the most well-known prep names in the 2018 high school class thanks to exceptional stuff—headlined by a fastball that routinely reaches 98 mph—and a physically imposing 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame. Despite his big build, Rocker is athletic for his size and has the bloodlines to back it up, as his father, Tracy, played football at Auburn before a brief NFL career with the Washington Redskins. When it comes to pure stuff, there’s perhaps no pitcher in the high school class who can match Rocker pitch for pitch. His fastball is regularly in the low to mid-90s and reaches the upper levels when he needs it. The pitch is delivered with such ease that is sometimes looks like he’s just playing catch. After that, Rocker has a pair of secondary offerings that have both looked plus, with a power breaking ball—some scouts call it a curve and some dub it a slider—that’s hard and tight in the low to mid-80s with late-breaking action. Rocker’s changeup is firm and has been up to 91 mph this spring, with fading action that allows the pitch to fall off the table at its best. Just grading out the tools, Rocker should be the top high school player in the class, but he got hit around more than his stuff would indicate last summer, especially when his fastball flattened out and stayed up in the zone. Some evaluators wonder if he just lacks deception and whether adding a two-seam fastball with more movement would help him down the road. The reports from his spring season with North Oconee High in Bogart, Ga., have all been exceptional and while he did deal with a minor hamstring injury that pushed back one of his starts, Rocker has done everything evaluators wanted him to do. Moving forward, the Vanderbilt commit needs to be on top of managing his weight as a bigger-bodied pitcher and he’ll need to take steps forward with the command of his entire repertoire once he gets to levels where his stuff alone isn’t overwhelming. Overall, Rocker has the elements to be a future front-of-the-rotation arm and should be a first-round pick.

 

There was nothing new in that report. I was literally mentioning some of the things in that write-up with David earlier. I am concerned about his conditioning and how he'll need to manage his weight going forward. Not too concerned, but it is a factor.

 

Dude, we all like Kumar Rocker here. I feel like you're trying way too hard on selling him or convincing us why he must absolutely be the GUY the Cubs select at 24 when there are plenty of good choices (and maybe better choices depending on evaluations). I like Rocker, but HS arms have a high bust rate so maybe taking a college arm or a prep bat is the smarter play. I'm definitely NOT in favor of paying overslot at 24 for Rocker if that's what it takes to sign him.

[toonsterwu]

Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

 

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

 

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.

 

Yeah, this stuff on Virginia is one of the main reasons so many people are critical of the draft prospects of so many Virginia players.

 

The pitching thing is fair. There's a reason why Lynch is a guy who I think might be a better pro than a collegian. He doesn't really crouch all that much. When Lynch is on ... he looks DAMN good. He looks like a borderline TOR arm type talent. When Lynch is on, it's at least a plus fastball and 2 above average (slider/change), and there have been times where the secondary looks like two plus pitches. There's been a few other pitchers that have come through the line that didn't really do the crouch, and it's not like Kuhn has held them back from reaching their potential. They've actually been aggressively pushing Lynch since Day 1 since they saw the top end talent that many didn't really identify.

 

All that said, he's been so inconsistent throughout his career. There is very little chance I would want him in the first round. I'm not sure I even love him in the 2nd either ... I think there's a huge boom/bust risk factor that comes with him. There's really only one UVA guy this year that I think deserves to go in the top 2 rounds, and that's Jake McCarthy, assuming he passes his physicals.

 

____

 

I think, and I didn't hear the podcast, that the critique on UVA hitters is a bit of an oversimplification to say they teach the Stanford swing. There's been a wide variance of hitters and styles since O'Connor and Co. has gotten to UVA. Pavin Smith was always this disciplined hitter who didn't go for the bomb. The Cubs hitting staff sorta made Adam Haseley - he was a nice two-way player, but he really took off over his 3 years. That said, a few years back, they had guys like Brandon Downes and Jarrett Parker come through the line, completely different hitter profiles. Now, the one thing to be said about UVA coaches is that they actively look for athletic guy that try to play to the dimensions of their field. Davenport is a pitcher's park, and they don't make any bones about looking for guys that will understand what to do in that park.

[Regular Show]

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[Regular Show]

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I don't believe this rumor at all. Joey Bart going #1 and Winn going #2 and Mize falling all the way to the Phillies?

 

Maybe if his medicals raise some concerns, but on pure talent Mize should go 1-1.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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I don't believe this rumor at all. Joey Bart going #1 and Winn going #2 and Mize falling all the way to the Phillies?

 

Maybe if his medicals raise some concerns, but on pure talent Mize should go 1-1.

 

Keith Law had Bart going 1.1 in his final mock today.

 

You have to balance all the misinformation that comes out today with all the talk for months that the Tigers don’t want to pick a pitcher first. Mize falling to the Phillies is something that was roadmapped in the last Fangraphs mock so it is definitely something that’s been on radars before today.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Joint Callis and Mayo mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-for-first-round-of-2018-mlb-draft/c-279699234

 

24. Cubs

Mayo: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- This continues to be a good landing spot for the prep catcher who has made headlines because of his switch-pitching skills as an amateur. He'll be a solid all-around catching prospect at the next level.

Callis: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- Another team homing in on bats, Chicago could go for Groshans, Larnach, Lavigne, Meadows, McCarthy and Schnell. If Virginia left-hander Daniel Lynch goes in the first round, this is the most likely destination.

[Regular Show]

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I don't believe this rumor at all. Joey Bart going #1 and Winn going #2 and Mize falling all the way to the Phillies?

 

Maybe if his medicals raise some concerns, but on pure talent Mize should go 1-1.

 

Keith Law had Bart going 1.1 in his final mock today.

 

You have to balance all the misinformation that comes out today with all the talk for months that the Tigers don’t want to pick a pitcher first. Mize falling to the Phillies is something that was roadmapped in the last Fangraphs mock so it is definitely something that’s been on radars before today.

 

I'm shocked. I get taking a hitter, but I don't know about taking Joey Bart 1-1. I know he's a safe choice and probably won't bust, but this strikes me as a reach.

 

EDIT: I got confused and mixed up the Giants and Tigers place in the draft. Kind of tired...

[Regular Show]

Joint Callis and Mayo mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-for-first-round-of-2018-mlb-draft/c-279699234

 

24. Cubs

Mayo: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- This continues to be a good landing spot for the prep catcher who has made headlines because of his switch-pitching skills as an amateur. He'll be a solid all-around catching prospect at the next level.

Callis: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- Another team homing in on bats, Chicago could go for Groshans, Larnach, Lavigne, Meadows, McCarthy and Schnell. If Virginia left-hander Daniel Lynch goes in the first round, this is the most likely destination.

 

So Callis, Mayo and Law all have the Cubs taking Anthony Seigler in their latest mock drafts?

 

http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/fic3ENicVS1HxwZ7CUSibyI2Vp89LtyVL40TUdZibqphZpuOibKMwRJ2bOhnw615rZibyvFQGNduEkeLiciaTsTdlewnXA/0?wx_fmt=gif

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Joint Callis and Mayo mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-for-first-round-of-2018-mlb-draft/c-279699234

 

24. Cubs

Mayo: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- This continues to be a good landing spot for the prep catcher who has made headlines because of his switch-pitching skills as an amateur. He'll be a solid all-around catching prospect at the next level.

Callis: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- Another team homing in on bats, Chicago could go for Groshans, Larnach, Lavigne, Meadows, McCarthy and Schnell. If Virginia left-hander Daniel Lynch goes in the first round, this is the most likely destination.

 

So Callis, Mayo and Law all have the Cubs taking Anthony Seigler in their latest mock drafts?

 

http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/fic3ENicVS1HxwZ7CUSibyI2Vp89LtyVL40TUdZibqphZpuOibKMwRJ2bOhnw615rZibyvFQGNduEkeLiciaTsTdlewnXA/0?wx_fmt=gif

 

Thanks, I don’t have ESPN Insider.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1003537955418324992?s=21

 

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1003536012054654976?s=21

[Hrubes20]

Not sure if it's been posted yet, but here is Fangraphs' sorted list:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all&team=all