2018 Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Callis with the mock draft to make Tom's day:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214?tid=151437456

 

I do love that he links us solely to higher upside prep players though. As a Cubs fan, it seems Callis generally has at least an inkling of the types of players the Cubs are going after.

 

And I wouldn’t have complained if they got Turang (who went the pick before) either but Rocker would be great.

[davell]

Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....

[Regular Show]

Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....

 

Yeah, I'm curious as well. I'm growing more and more intrigued by Jordan Groshans. I wonder if the Cubs will invite him for a private workout. I think he would go higher in other years with less talent in the 1st round.

 

Groshans and Scott should definitely be invited to Wrigley for a closer look.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....

 

Unless I’m missing something, the link BA tweeted today was the mock from Tuesday with the Cubs picking prep catcher Anthony Seigler.

[davell]

Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....

 

Unless I’m missing something, the link BA tweeted today was the mock from Tuesday with the Cubs picking prep catcher Anthony Seigler.

 

Oh figures lol. They retweet stuff from the past often. I forgot their last one was this week.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I bet one of those five or so teams is Texas. Texas gave Matt Bush a second chance (or third chance) after the horrible things he did.

 

If I were a betting man I would put good money on the Cubs NOT being in that group...

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Of those three players:

 

Highest floor for me is Madrigal. Highest ceiling is Bohm easily -- a Kris Bryant comp is high praise.

 

I like India too, but I like Bohm and Madrigal more.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I don't know if India is good enough to play SS at the MLB level. I doubt it, but I didn't think DeJong was capable of playing SS at the highest level either. I haven't seen enough of India to really make a case either way.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I like Kyler Murray, but he needs to drop his football aspirations before I'd commit to drafting him with a high draft pick. I know he's a great athlete, but you need those reps in the minors.

 

Sucks you can't take a chance on this kind of guy in the late rounds anymore. You could give him a mil to sign and then see how this lottery ticket works out. You can't really do that with the current draft pools/penalties in place right now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I like Kyler Murray, but he needs to drop his football aspirations before I'd commit to drafting him with a high draft pick. I know he's a great athlete, but you need those reps in the minors.

 

Sucks you can't take a chance on this kind of guy in the late rounds anymore. You could give him a mil to sign and then see how this lottery ticket works out. You can't really do that with the current draft pools/penalties in place right now.

 

Well, any team that does draft him high and sign him will force him to stick to baseball. That seems like one reason most don’t think he’ll sign this year

 

 

 

[Hrubes20]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I don't know if India is good enough to play SS at the MLB level. I doubt it, but I didn't think DeJong was capable of playing SS at the highest level either. I haven't seen enough of India to really make a case either way.

 

He never wowed me at SS, but he wasn't glaringly bad there either. He looked really dang good at 3B. I would absolutely be fine with him getting a shot to stick at SS. I'm fairly salty that the Cubs have no chance at him anymore.

[davell]

Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.

 

The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

 

It’s a good read.

[davell]

Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.

 

The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

 

It’s a good read.

 

I had it posted with a bad link, then forgot to put it back in, then I guess you posted it while I was redoing it lol.

 

I'm not sure what I feel about Kowar. I like Walker. I also like quite a few of the HS Pitchers taken after us. But, it sounds like college is going to be our direction in the 1st.

 

With the 2 comp picks, I really will be disappointed if we don't do one really huge, fun thing with a HS arm, or 2 Estrada type moves. We've got the overall budget to be very interesting.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.

 

The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

 

It’s a good read.

 

I had it posted with a bad link, then forgot to put it back in, then I guess you posted it while I was redoing it lol.

 

I'm not sure what I feel about Kowar. I like Walker. I also like quite a few of the HS Pitchers taken after us. But, it sounds like college is going to be our direction in the 1st.

 

With the 2 comp picks, I really will be disappointed if we don't do one really huge, fun thing with a HS arm, or 2 Estrada type moves. We've got the overall budget to be very interesting.

 

Yeah, with as many picks in the top 100 as they have, this mock seems to be going with the strategy of one overslot prep guy later. Hopefully that kid is more Cease and less Hudson. I’d rather take the high ceiling guy in the first when you have the most options.

 

Interesting to see Rodriguez fall to 34 and Casas to 36 with no bonus demands or injuries. Vasil to 39 and Hankins 42 due to injury, Rocker to 38 due to bonus demands.

[davell]

How the money gets allotted is key obviously. I've tried playing around with that some every year. Because it's easier to do THAT than project players. We won't know most bonus demands and there's always some top 30-50 guys sitting there on Day 2. There's usually even a few seven figure bonuses given out in the 6-10 rounds and there's always some decent bonuses handed out after the 10th round too.

 

Our Draft Budget- 7.517,100

5% Money- 375,855

Total Budget-7.892,955

 

1st Round- 2.724M

Personally, I'd go with the HS player here, that's taking slot. But, I understand the strategy of taking the college guy first. Slot value being the EXPECTED monetary outlay. However, I can see a scenario where we take a guy expected to go a bit later, maybe top 50,and get him for 2 mill or slightly under that. Same scenario we did with Schwarber, just in a different pick radius. An unlikely option would be to go over slot on a HS kid in round 1. A 4th Option is to just take slot thru out and use your 5% money, and your 8-10 Round money, to go over slot for a kid in the middle rounds. We've done this multiple times and it may be safest. But, I want to explore the other chances......

 

1st Option- 2.724M(can be either HS or college kid)

2nd Option- 2M on a college kid, with upside. Hannah?

3rd Option- 3.5M on a HS kid

 

2nd Round- 1.060,900

Solid money for sure. This could go towards either HS or College, BUT it's gone College every year outside of 2012 for us. Personally, I'd suspect yet another college pitcher that pitched well at the end of the year, ala Rob Z, Abbott, and Stinnett. Chance of a college position player too here, almost definitely an up the middle guy.

 

1st Option-1.060,900

2nd Option- 2Mill(This goes to a HS kid you like a lot and spread your top 2 pick money evenly between 2 guys.

3rd Option- 1,060,900

 

Comp Picks after 2nd Round- 775,100 and 762,900

 

I think this is likely where we go with a big overslot. The 1st Option, where we've went slot in both rounds 1 and 2, lends for this scenario. Option 2 does as well, you've just taken a different path. Option 3? It's be really hard. But, we'll give it a go and see how funky we can turn that option.....

 

1st Option- 1.5M and 762,900

2nd Option- 2M and 762,900

3rd Option- 1.5M and 1.5M

 

Total money spent so far..... 5.322,900 Slot

 

1st Option-6.047,800

2nd Option-6.762,900

3rd Option-7.560,900

 

3rd Round-570,600

 

I find it unlikely this is when we go big, I'd suspect a college arm here. In all 3 scenarios, we've got to do this anyway. In the 3rd one, we've got to lay off actually.

 

1st Option-572,900(6.620,800)

2nd Option-572,900(7.335,800)

3rd Option-200,000(7.760,900)

 

4th Round-426,100

 

Money has been spent in each of these 3 options. While in the "go slot everywhere" option, NOW is when you could conceivably grab your low 7 figure HS kid, that's still out there. Itd just cost your 5% money and your 9th and 10th Rounders need to be College senior signs.

 

1st Option-426,100(7,046,900 Total)

2nd Option-30,000(college senior) 7,365,800 Total

3rd Option-20,000(college senior)7,780,900 Total

 

5th Round-317,600

 

There's really no money to spend. You can take slot a few more times with the 1st Option. 2nd Option needs to skimp one more time right now. The 3rd Option is signing college seniors throughout.

 

1st Option-317,600(7,364,500 Total)

2nd Option-30,000(7,395,800)

3rd Option-20,000(7,800,900)

 

6th Round-245,600

 

Slot or seniors. Only choice.

 

1st Option-245,600(7,610,100 Total)

2nd Option-245,600(7,641,400 Total)

3rd Option-20,000(7,820,900 Total)

 

7th-10th Rounds-634,300 combined

 

1st Option-282,855 to spend

2nd Option-251,555 to spend

3rd Option-72,445 to spend

 

 

It's VERY likely, that we'll play it safe and just take slot guys at each stop, then use the 5% money and a couple of senior signs between 7-10 and get one guy to excite us.

 

But, I would look at each of these other 3 scenarios hard, if I were the Cubs. Strength in a small few, but extra upside. Not to mention, we've done a fairly admirable job with college seniors.

 

Option 1- 2.724M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 762,900, 572,900, 426,100 as your 6 relatively decent sized bonuses

 

Option 2- 2M, 2M, 2M, 762,900, 572,900 as your 5 big bonuses

 

Option 3- 3.5M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 1.5M as your 4 big bonuses

 

Anyway, it's a puzzle. It all depends on bonus demands. But, I like each of those scenarios more than the playing it safe route. It's too hard to find a diamond in the rough, with slot guys outside the 1st. Just take a few high upside guys and take it easy in the back half of the first 10 Rounds.

[Cubswin11]

I’m hoping one of the HS guys still has a TJS injury and falls

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I’m hoping one of the HS guys still has a TJS injury and falls

 

I suspect Denaburg and Vasil will need TJS once they’re pros.

 

This mock has Mason Denaburg going to the Nationals at 27 (makes sense, this is the organization that drafted Giolito) and Mike Vasil 39 to Arizona. Ethan Hankins also fell to Colorado at 42 in this mock but he supposedly got a clean bill of health after shoulder “fatigue” (I’m not at all interested in picking an already-risky prep pitcher who has shoulder problems).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I say that about thinking Vasil likely needing TJS and then Kiley tweets this:

 

[Regular Show]

I say that about thinking Vasil likely needing TJS and then Kiley tweets this:

 

 

Yeah, I mentioned a few posts ago that he saw a specialist and was cleared to pitch with no ligament damage/structural damage. I believe he's fine healthwise.

 

Also, he has maybe the best mechanics of any pitcher in HS. It's a clean easy delivery and he's always on line with the plate. Seems like a good athlete who keeps up with his conditioning too. I like Mike Vasil and think he'll go in the late first round area.

[Regular Show]

In regards to the mock draft on Fangraphs ... well, I don't hate the pick but I don't love it either. I won't mind it if the Cubs select Jackson Kowar, but I'd rather they go after someone with a higher ceiling/more exciting.

 

I've heard Kowar comped to fellow Florida pitcher Luke Weaver. We'll take that I guess?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Patrick Mooney: Cubs Alter Draft Strategy in Wake of Trades

 

The Cubs are trying to find a next generation of hitters in this year’s draft. After working the free agent system, they have four selections in the top 78 picks—and five in the top 98—plus a $7.5 million bonus pool.

 

"There’s going to be opportunity there,” said Jason McLeod, the senior vice president who oversees scouting and player development. "Maybe it won’t be the position players because we can’t control what everyone else is doing. But I think we’re going to be able to take some upside guys and try to replace some of the impact talent that we traded away the last couple of years.”

[Regular Show]

Patrick Mooney: Cubs Alter Draft Strategy in Wake of Trades

 

The Cubs are trying to find a next generation of hitters in this year’s draft. After working the free agent system, they have four selections in the top 78 picks—and five in the top 98—plus a $7.5 million bonus pool.

 

"There’s going to be opportunity there,” said Jason McLeod, the senior vice president who oversees scouting and player development. "Maybe it won’t be the position players because we can’t control what everyone else is doing. But I think we’re going to be able to take some upside guys and try to replace some of the impact talent that we traded away the last couple of years.”

 

Can you sum up the article for ppl who don't have a subscription? They're targeting position players for the first four picks we have or balancing it between pitching and hitting?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs decided to target young position players w/ high ceilings because right now we suck at finding/developing pitching prospects selected in the MLB draft.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Patrick Mooney: Cubs Alter Draft Strategy in Wake of Trades

 

The Cubs are trying to find a next generation of hitters in this year’s draft. After working the free agent system, they have four selections in the top 78 picks—and five in the top 98—plus a $7.5 million bonus pool.

 

"There’s going to be opportunity there,” said Jason McLeod, the senior vice president who oversees scouting and player development. "Maybe it won’t be the position players because we can’t control what everyone else is doing. But I think we’re going to be able to take some upside guys and try to replace some of the impact talent that we traded away the last couple of years.”

 

Can you sum up the article for ppl who don't have a subscription? They're targeting position players for the first four picks we have or balancing it between pitching and hitting?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs decided to target young position players w/ high ceilings because right now we suck at finding/developing pitching prospects selected in the MLB draft.

 

The article is at Baseball America and does not require a subscription.

[Regular Show]

I believe there are a limited # of free articles you can read each month because every time I click on the link it says I need to sign in.

 

I was able to read it on my smartphone. So it seems like McLeod is admitting there was a mandate to target pitching in last year's draft (which we can all see). I don't like that approach and believe in a BPA (best player available) philosophy for most of the draft. I agree on taking advanced hitting prospects at the top of the draft.

 

I don't know exactly what the Cubs will do in this upcoming draft, but I hope they target the right hitting prospects this time. Please no more Jacob Hannemanns and D.J. Wilsons...