2018 Draft Thread

CaliforniaRaisin · May 3, 2018

Weird that Keith Law has Brady Singer going second.. I didn't think he was that highly thought of after his slow start. This mock draft is pretty good overall.

I'm surprised Cole Winn and Kumar Rocker went so low, but MLB teams want to minimize risk so I get why those talented HS arms fell. I also get why Ethan Hankins fell with his shoulder injury scaring some teams. J.T. Ginn is another super talented HS arm, but I'm surprised Keith Law has him going in the first round.

If you don’t mind, where did Winn and Rocker go? And Connor Scott, who is probably my favorite prep bat who might be around the Cubs pick?

21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)

Ohh, that would be annoying.

Thanks!

CaliforniaRaisin · May 3, 2018

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/992121886422298625?s=21

davell · May 3, 2018

If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.

Cubswin11 · May 3, 2018

If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.

Meh, give me one top of the heap kind of talent over all the Cliftons, Ceases, and Maples anyday.

Give me bats

davell · May 3, 2018

I'd prefer a bat. But, if we DO take an arm, I'm fairly positive you can find one, with nice upside, for much, much less than 2/3 of your budget.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 3, 2018

If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.

Meh, give me one top of the heap kind of talent over all the Cliftons, Ceases, and Maples anyday.

Clifton and his $350k bonus doesn't belong in the same sentence and Cease or Maples, who were (at worst) top 10 HS pitching prospects in their respective drafts.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 4, 2018

Regular Show · May 4, 2018

If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.

I agree that if Rocker's asking price is $5 million I'd pass if I were the Cubs. I disagree about the concept of not wanting to give any single pitcher 2/3 of some hypothetical draft pool. I think in super rare cases I might be willing to do it for exceptional top college pitching prospects.

I think I might be willing to do it in certain rare cases -- Strasburg, Price or even Mark Prior. I think Theo and Jed and Maddon would've handled Prior in a much better way and limit his workload early on. Honestly, those kind of pitching prospects are so rare and they usually go #1/#2 so giving 2/3 of your draft budget might not even cut it.

There is NO pitching prospect like that in this draft. Casey Mize and Kumar Rocker aren't in the same class as Strasburg, Price and Prior. I agree with you Davell, but in theory I might be willing to do it for the right top pitching prospect that comes along once or twice every decade.

Edit: So I just checked the draft pool for this year's draft. The Tigers have the #1 pick and the slot value for that pick is $8,096,300 and the Tigers overall pool amount is $12,414,800. Some quick easy math: $8.1/$12.415 = ~66% or 2/3's of the Tiger's draft budget. So a Strasburg-type talent would already be getting close to that percentage from the team selecting #1 overall. Well, there goes that theory...

davell · May 4, 2018

If you've got the top pick, there's no problem with the 2/3's idea. You've still got full slot to hand out to your 2-10 round picks. In other words, it doesn't affect your draft budget at all in terms of other players. You can get that guy, plus a regular draft class on top of that. Hell, you can still skimp on your 7-10 rounders with college seniors, use your overage and pay an additional over slot or two, if you want. Personally, I would do it that way.

If you're drafting 24 though, and pay 5 mill of your 7.5 budget, you've got 2.9 mill left(after overage) for an entire draft class. It's basically equivalent to having to sign college seniors to our 2nd, and one of our 2 comp picks as well, in order to fit the first guy into budget.

There's other ways to skin the cat obviously, but the bottom line is you're using everything to get ONE high school pitcher. Way too risky. And there's not going to be a college guy that falls THAT far, to where it ever makes that situation feasible. But sure, IF a draft class's version of Strasburg or Prior fell to that area? Yeah, I'd take the plunge. Because you're literally inheriting a top 10-15 prospect in the game immediately. A guy like Rocker? MAYBE he's a top 100 guy immediately? That's not even a guarantee.

High school pitchers are way too risky to try that with. Rocker is good. I'd gladly go over for him. But 3.5 or so, would be the max range(our slot is 2.7ish, I think). He's not some super rare talent type. Not even considered the hands down best pitcher in his class. If you DO go the route of punting your class for one guy, he's just got to be much better and much more of a surety than a guy like Rocker.

davell · May 4, 2018

If you've got the top pick, there's no problem with the 2/3's idea. I said OUR draft budget. If we had 12 mill, with a truly elite guy available, I'd weigh it against other options and possibly jump. You've still got full slot to hand out to your 2-10 round picks. In other words, it doesn't affect your draft budget at all in terms of other players. You can get that guy, plus a regular draft class on top of that. Hell, you can still skimp on your 7-10 rounders with college seniors, use your overage and pay an additional over slot or two, if you want. Personally, I would do it that way.

If you're drafting 24 though, and pay 5 mill of your 7.5 budget, you've got 2.9 mill left(after overage) for an entire draft class. It's basically equivalent to having to sign college seniors to our 2nd, and one of our 2 comp picks as well, in order to fit the first guy into budget.

There's other ways to skin the cat obviously, but the bottom line is you're using everything to get ONE high school pitcher. Way too risky. And there's not going to be a college guy that falls THAT far, to where it ever makes that situation feasible. But sure, IF a draft class's version of Strasburg or Prior fell to that area? Yeah, I'd take the plunge. Because you're literally inheriting a top 10-15 prospect in the game immediately. A guy like Rocker? MAYBE he's a top 100 guy immediately? That's not even a guarantee.

High school pitchers are way too risky to try that with. Rocker is good. I'd gladly go over for him. But 3.5 or so, would be the max range(our slot is 2.7ish, I think). He's not some super rare talent type. Not even considered the hands down best pitcher in his class. If you DO go the route of punting your class for one guy, he's just got to be much better and much more of a surety than a guy like Rocker.

Regular Show · May 4, 2018

If you've got the top pick, there's no problem with the 2/3's idea. You've still got full slot to hand out to your 2-10 round picks. In other words, it doesn't affect your draft budget at all in terms of other players. You can get that guy, plus a regular draft class on top of that. Hell, you can still skimp on your 7-10 rounders with college seniors, use your overage and pay an additional over slot or two, if you want. Personally, I would do it that way.

If you're drafting 24 though, and pay 5 mill of your 7.5 budget, you've got 2.9 mill left(after overage) for an entire draft class. It's basically equivalent to having to sign college seniors to our 2nd, and one of our 2 comp picks as well, in order to fit the first guy into budget.

There's other ways to skin the cat obviously, but the bottom line is you're using everything to get ONE high school pitcher. Way too risky. And there's not going to be a college guy that falls THAT far, to where it ever makes that situation feasible. But sure, IF a draft class's version of Strasburg or Prior fell to that area? Yeah, I'd take the plunge. Because you're literally inheriting a top 10-15 prospect in the game immediately. A guy like Rocker? MAYBE he's a top 100 guy immediately? That's not even a guarantee.

High school pitchers are way too risky to try that with. Rocker is good. I'd gladly go over for him. But 3.5 or so, would be the max range(our slot is 2.7ish, I think). He's not some super rare talent type. Not even considered the hands down best pitcher in his class. If you DO go the route of punting your class for one guy, he's just got to be much better and much more of a surety than a guy like Rocker.

Yeah, I agree with you. I think we're in agreement on our draft philosophy. Kumar Rocker is too risky and HS pitchers in general are just way too risky for that kind of strategy. Personally, my favorite HS pitcher in this draft class is Carter Stewart and I still wouldn't offer him more than $3-3.5 mil. I do believe one of these talented HS arms is going to develop into a legit ace/#1 starter, but I have no clue who he is.

Regular Show · May 4, 2018

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-top-500-mlb-draft-prospects/

The updated Top 500 draft prospects list is available now on baseballamerica's website. The reports are super detailed. Highly recommend everyone take a look if you're interested in the draft.

Hrubes20 · May 4, 2018

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-top-500-mlb-draft-prospects/

The updated Top 500 draft prospects list is available now on baseballamerica's website. The reports are super detailed. Highly recommend everyone take a look if you're interested in the draft.

Great stuff. Thanks for posting that. I didn't think BA usually got around to that until a week or so before the draft.

CubsWin · May 4, 2018

21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)

Personally, I might take Regular Show's draft prospect analysis over Keith Law's, but Law has some really nice things to say about Rodriguez:

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS, Nacogdoches, Texas. The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.

Regular Show · May 5, 2018

21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)
Personally, I might take Regular Show's draft prospect analysis over Keith Law's, but Law has some really nice things to say about Rodriguez:

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS, Nacogdoches, Texas. The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.

I appreciate the kind words, but I think you're much better off with Keith Law's analysis and his sources. I've watched some video of Grayson Rodriguez and he is very impressive. He has one of the longest arm swings or arm actions going back that I've ever seen. It looks weird, but the rest of his delivery is fine. The delivery takes awhile so I could see runners stealing a lot of bases on him. Great fastball and a good breaking ball in the videos I watched.

I think he's a fine pitching prospect, but then I listened to him talk during an interview ... and it brought back bad memories. He has a slight Texan accent that reminded me of John Lackey. It isn't that bad, but it sucks when a professional athlete sounds like a redneck.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 5, 2018

Regular Show · May 6, 2018

https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/2018-mlb-mock-draft-first-run-shadow/

Another mock draft and we'll be seeing a bunch of these over the next month. This one is okay. They have the Cubs taking Missouri State SS, Jeremy Eierman. I don't see that happening... I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter, but I think it would be someone with a higher ceiling like OF Connor Scott. Also, Jeremy Eierman has hit very poorly during his stints in the Cape Cod League. I'm not that high on Eierman, but I do think he stays at SS and might develop into a plus defender there. I just have serious doubts about the bat.

This mock draft goes pretty deep. Some of the choices are weird, but it's still early.

Regular Show · May 6, 2018

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This is good news. He's another highly rated HS arm and I like him as a target if he's fully healthy. He's got one of the cleanest deliveries in this draft class among pitchers. This sounds weird, but it's almost too clean lol. He has like zero deception and I'm pretty sure hitters see his fastball pretty well. He seems very athletic and has the ideal build for a pitcher. I'm impressed from watching him in a couple videos and I've read a few articles about his competitive nature/good makeup. I guess a full physical and MRI on his arm/shoulder would be necessary for a team to really commit to him at this point with a high draft pick.

Here's a video from last year:

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OleMissCub · May 6, 2018

Casey Mize pitched a complete game, 15k, 0bb, 4 hits, 1 run (a homer) on Friday against Vandy

Regular Show · May 6, 2018

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Regular Show · May 7, 2018

Casey Mize pitched a complete game, 15k, 0bb, 4 hits, 1 run (a homer) on Friday against Vandy

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/992849259513962497[/tweet]

He's a lock to go 1-1 so this didn't really move the needle. I guess he could demand full slot value from the Tigers now.

Hrubes20 · May 7, 2018

https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/2018-mlb-mock-draft-first-run-shadow/

Another mock draft and we'll be seeing a bunch of these over the next month. This one is okay. They have the Cubs taking Missouri State SS, Jeremy Eierman. I don't see that happening... I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter, but I think it would be someone with a higher ceiling like OF Connor Scott. Also, Jeremy Eierman has hit very poorly during his stints in the Cape Cod League. I'm not that high on Eierman, but I do think he stays at SS and might develop into a plus defender there. I just have serious doubts about the bat.

This mock draft goes pretty deep. Some of the choices are weird, but it's still early.

I hate everything about what they did with the Cubs pick. Not much of an Eierman fan, and their "also considered" list is filled with BOR college starters.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 7, 2018

https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/2018-mlb-mock-draft-first-run-shadow/

Another mock draft and we'll be seeing a bunch of these over the next month. This one is okay. They have the Cubs taking Missouri State SS, Jeremy Eierman. I don't see that happening... I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter, but I think it would be someone with a higher ceiling like OF Connor Scott. Also, Jeremy Eierman has hit very poorly during his stints in the Cape Cod League. I'm not that high on Eierman, but I do think he stays at SS and might develop into a plus defender there. I just have serious doubts about the bat.

This mock draft goes pretty deep. Some of the choices are weird, but it's still early.

I hate everything about what they did with the Cubs pick. Not much of an Eierman fan, and their "also considered" list is filled with BOR college starters.

It just underscores your point that the college guys available at the end of the first round these days are BOR starters or utility players. I’d rather shoot for a higher ceiling guy, especially in this draft where there should still be a few available.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 7, 2018

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/993552879490359298?s=21

Regular Show · May 7, 2018

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/993552879490359298?s=21

Well, we can take solace in the fact that we're probably not one of the teams that's contacted him. I don't know why a team would contact him or consider drafting him.

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