2018 Draft Thread

[Regular Show]

Praise Jah for this crazy emphasis on signability on the draft:

 

Chances Kumar Rocker gets to the Cubs at 24?

 

Eric Longenhagen: There's a chance he falls due to signability but I'm not sure they can pay him. Their pool is around $7mil. If Rocker wants $5mil, it's tough to make that work and still have a draft that isn't all seniors. It'd be pretty bold to Ricky Williams your entire draft.

 

I like Kumar Rocker a lot, but if he's asking for $5 mil then the Cubs will have to pass.

 

I mean he's NOT that good. That's top-5 range in the draft. I guess could see him going to school and developing into a top of the draft/1-1 candidate in a few years.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/986967350128848896[/tweet]

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/4/17/17203832/2018-mlb-draft-sean-hjelle-rhp-university-of-kentucky

 

Hjelle is up to 6-11 and has gained some strength since high school, coming in now at a reported 225 pounds, though there’s still not a lot of obvious meat on his bones. Despite his great height he repeats his mechanics consistently and is unusually well-coordinated for such a tall pitcher, resulting in above-average command.

 

His fastball has gained four to six MPH since high school, consistently at 91-93 now with reported peaks at 95-96. He’s refined a high school slurve into a plus curveball. He has an average change-up and when all three pitches are working his combination of size, stuff, and command seems unfair.

 

John Sickels wrote that about RHP Sean Hjelle and he seems like the high guy on him among prospect analysts. Keith Law mentions how he's a strike thrower with good command who could still add more velocity down the road. It seems like Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs are really down on Sean Hjelle, and didn't even have him listed on their Top 50 draft prospects list.

 

I like him personally and think he might add a little more velocity as he gets older. He's so damn skinny right now. I think he has room to get stronger. I think his curveball is a plus pitch right now, and I think the changeup is solid-average and could turn into another plus pitch in time. I'll be curious to see where baseballamerica has him. I don't know if I want the Cubs to take him at #24 since there might be better prospects available, but I doubt he'll fall all the way to their next pick at the end of the 2nd round.

[javy knows my name]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/986967350128848896[/tweet]

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/4/17/17203832/2018-mlb-draft-sean-hjelle-rhp-university-of-kentucky

 

Hjelle is up to 6-11 and has gained some strength since high school, coming in now at a reported 225 pounds, though there’s still not a lot of obvious meat on his bones. Despite his great height he repeats his mechanics consistently and is unusually well-coordinated for such a tall pitcher, resulting in above-average command.

 

His fastball has gained four to six MPH since high school, consistently at 91-93 now with reported peaks at 95-96. He’s refined a high school slurve into a plus curveball. He has an average change-up and when all three pitches are working his combination of size, stuff, and command seems unfair.

 

John Sickels wrote that about RHP Sean Hjelle and he seems like the high guy on him among prospect analysts. Keith Law mentions how he's a strike thrower with good command who could still add more velocity down the road. It seems like Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs are really down on Sean Hjelle, and didn't even have him listed on their Top 50 draft prospects list.

 

I like him personally and think he might add a little more velocity as he gets older. He's so damn skinny right now. I think he has room to get stronger. I think his curveball is a plus pitch right now, and I think the changeup is solid-average and could turn into another plus pitch in time. I'll be curious to see where baseballamerica has him. I don't know if I want the Cubs to take him at #24 since there might be better prospects available, but I doubt he'll fall all the way to their next pick at the end of the 2nd round.

 

Where's Kumar Rocker on that list?

[Regular Show]

Keith Law has RHP Kumar Rocker ranked #12. I can tell you where he has other prospects on the list if you're curious. Just tell me which ones...

[javy knows my name]

Keith Law has RHP Kumar Rocker ranked #12. I can tell you where he has other prospects on the list if you're curious. Just tell me which ones...

 

Thanks! That seems pretty consistent with where he is expected to go in the draft. Are there any guys whose ranking on there is out of line with their projected draft position due to signability concerns? That's what I'm most curious about.

[Regular Show]

Keith Law has RHP Kumar Rocker ranked #12. I can tell you where he has other prospects on the list if you're curious. Just tell me which ones...

 

Thanks! That seems pretty consistent with where he is expected to go in the draft. Are there any guys whose ranking on there is out of line with their projected draft position due to signability concerns? That's what I'm most curious about.

 

So I believe Keith Law's list is just his ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year's draft. He doesn't move prospects up or down based on signability and this isn't a mock draft. This is just a list based on how he views their talent and skill level/production.

 

Keith Law wrote this short explanation above the list:

 

With that significant caveat, here’s a ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year's draft class, as I see them right now, with some guys just getting underway due to the cold and rain in the northern half of the country. This is a ranking of players, not a mock draft.

[javy knows my name]

Keith Law has RHP Kumar Rocker ranked #12. I can tell you where he has other prospects on the list if you're curious. Just tell me which ones...

 

Thanks! That seems pretty consistent with where he is expected to go in the draft. Are there any guys whose ranking on there is out of line with their projected draft position due to signability concerns? That's what I'm most curious about.

 

So I believe Keith Law's list is just his ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year's draft. He doesn't move prospects up or down based on signability and this isn't a mock draft. This is just a list based on how he views their talent and skill level/production.

 

Keith Law wrote this short explanation above the list:

 

With that significant caveat, here’s a ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year's draft class, as I see them right now, with some guys just getting underway due to the cold and rain in the northern half of the country. This is a ranking of players, not a mock draft.

 

Right, I 100% get that and was able to read that far. What I'm asking is, in this pure list of draft prospects, does he have some dude #2 who most don't think will go in the top ten due to signability (or injury, or whatever)

[UK]

I'm glad Kelenic decided on travel ball this Spring instead of the WIAA, this is by far the worst Spring in the 13 years I had covered WI/IL.

[Regular Show]

 

Thanks! That seems pretty consistent with where he is expected to go in the draft. Are there any guys whose ranking on there is out of line with their projected draft position due to signability concerns? That's what I'm most curious about.

 

So I believe Keith Law's list is just his ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year's draft. He doesn't move prospects up or down based on signability and this isn't a mock draft. This is just a list based on how he views their talent and skill level/production.

 

Keith Law wrote this short explanation above the list:

 

With that significant caveat, here’s a ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year's draft class, as I see them right now, with some guys just getting underway due to the cold and rain in the northern half of the country. This is a ranking of players, not a mock draft.

 

Right, I 100% get that and was able to read that far. What I'm asking is, in this pure list of draft prospects, does he have some dude #2 who most don't think will go in the top ten due to signability (or injury, or whatever)

 

Yeah, so he has infield prospect Jonathan India really high at #10. I've never seen him that high on any list before. That is mildly shocking to me, but he is producing and his defense/fielding has improved.

 

He has catching prospect Joey Bart ranked #14 and I think he'll go in the top 10 because elite catching prospects are rare. He has great tools and I've read some teams in the top 10 are very interested in him.

 

He has SS/3B prospect Jordan Groshans all the way down near the bottom of the list which is a little shocking to me. I like him as prospect and I've read good things. That is confusing to me. I think he should be ranked higher on the list.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Regular Show

[UK]

Top 50 according to one of the publications:

 

1 Casey Mize C RHP R-R 6-3 208 Auburn Springville AL

2 Matthew Liberatore H LHP L-L 6-5 200 Mountain Ridge Peoria AZ Arizona

3 Nick Madrigal C 2B R-R 5-8 160 Oregon State Elk Grove CA

4 Jarred Kelenic H OF L-L 6-1 196 Waukesha West Waukesha WI Louisville

5 Alec Bohm C 3B R-R 6-5 225 Wichita State Omaha NE

6 Carter Stewart H RHP R-R 6-6 200 Eau Gallie Melbourne FL Mississippi State

7 Shane McClanahan C LHP L-L 6-1 173 South Florida Cape Coral FL

8 Travis Swaggerty C OF L-L 5-11 180 South Alabama Mandeville LA

9 Ethan Hankins H RHP R-R 6-6 200 Forsyth Central Cumming GA Vanderbilt

10 Ryan Rolison C LHP R-L 6-3 200 Ole Miss Jackson TN

11 Nolan Gorman H 3B/SS L-R 6-1 210 Sandra Day O'Connor Glendale AZ Arizona

12 Mason Denaburg H RHP/C R-R 6-4 195 Merritt Island Merritt Island FL Florida

13 Logan Gilbert C RHP R-R 6-6 210 Stetson Apopka FL

14 Connor Scott H OF/LHP L-L 6-4 180 Plant Tampa FL Florida

15 Mike Vasil H RHP L-R 6-4 210 Boston College HS Wellesley MA Virginia

16 Joey Bart C C R-R 6-3 220 Georgia Tech Buford GA

17 Kumar Rocker H RHP R-R 6-5 250 North Oconee Watkinsville GA Vanderbilt

18 Jonathan India C 3B R-R 6-2 195 Florida Coral Springs FL

19 Cole Winn H RHP R-R 6-2 195 Orange Lutheran Orange CA Mississippi State

20 Brice Turang H SS L-R 6-1 165 Santiago Corona CA Louisiana State

21 Jackson Kowar C RHP R-R 6-5 180 Florida Charlotte NC

22 Will Banfield H C R-R 6-0 200 Brookwood Lawrenceville GA Vanderbilt

23 Brady Singer C RHP R-R 6-5 200 Florida Eustis FL

24 Trevor Larnach C OF L-R 6-4 213 Oregon State Pleasant Hill CA

25 Greyson Jenista C 1B/OF L-R 6-4 210 Wichita State Eudora KS

26 Nander De Sedas H SS B-R 6-1 190 Montverde Academy Montverde FL Florida State

27 Ryan Weathers H LHP R-L 6-2 225 Loretto Loretto TN Vanderbilt

28 Anthony Siegler H C B-B 5-11 190 Cartersville Cartersville GA Florida

29 Jeremy Eierman C SS R-R 6-1 205 Missouri State Warsaw MO

30 Xavier Edwards H SS B-R 5-10 155 North Broward Prep Wellington FL Vanderbilt

31 Triston Casas H 1B/3B L-R 6-4 240 American Heritage Pembroke Pines FL Miami

32 Kris Bubic C LHP L-L 6-3 220 Stanford Cupertino CA

33 Osiris Johnson H SS R-R 6-1 185 Encinal Alameda CA Cal State Fullerton

34 Grayson Rodriguez H RHP L-R 6-5 230 Central Heights Nacodoches TX Texas A&M

35 Sean Hjelle C RHP R-R 6-11 215 Kentucky Mahtomedi MN

36 Jordyn Adams H CF R-R 6-2 180 Green Hope Cary NC North Carolina

37 Steele Walker C OF L-L 5-11 190 Oklahoma Prosper TX

38 Alek Thomas H OF L-L 5-11 175 Mt. Carmel Chicago IL TCU

39 Austin Becker H RHP R-R 6-6 185 Big Walnut Sunbury OH Vanderbilt

40 Nicholas Schnell H OF L-R 6-2 180 Roncalli Indianapolis IN Louisville

41 Tanner Dodson C RHP/OF B-R 6-2 180 California Elk Grove CA

42 Grant Lavigne H 1B L-R 6-4 230 Bedford Bedford NH Wake Forest

43 Jordan Groshans H SS/3B R-R 6-4 190 Magnolia Magnolia TX Kansas

44 Griffin Roberts C RHP R-R 6-3 210 Wake Forest Midlothian VA

45 Mike Siani H OF L-L 6-0 195 William Penn Charter Glenside PA Virginia

46 Cole Wilcox H RHP R-R 6-5 220 Heritage Chickamauga GA Georgia

47 Noah Naylor H C L-R 6-0 195 St. Joan of Arc Catholic Mississauga ON Texas A&M

48 JT Ginn H RHP R-R 6-2 200 Brandon Brandon MS Mississippi State

49 Nick Decker H OF L-L 6-0 200 Seneca Southampton NJ Maryland

50 Konnor Pilkington C LHP L-L 6-3 225 Mississippi State Hurley MS

[UK]

Bruno - Borden was listed at 284.

[Bruno7481]

The Cubs have been in to see Indiana prep SS Timmy Borden on multiple occasions this Spring, along with a slew of other teams as well.

 

Back again today.

[Bruno7481]

Bruno - Borden was listed at 284.

 

Thanks.

 

They have certainly been hot on his trail recently. I’d love it.

[UK]

Bruno - Borden was listed at 284.

 

Thanks.

 

They have certainly been hot on his trail recently. I’d love it.

 

Despite not being involved since I resigned last Fall, if I hear anything I'll let you know as there are several scouts who cover WI/IL who also cover IN.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fangraphs mock of the top 10: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

[Cubswin11]

Law ranked Hankins at 33, but had him ranked #1 overall before the injury scare......

 

33. Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central High School, Cumming, Georgia. Hankins was No. 1 on my list before his shoulder barked, and while he's hit 95 mph in his outings after a monthlong layoff, he hasn't been the same guy, pitching with less command and a much-reduced curveball. He might be a second-pick overpay, as with Sean Manaea several years ago, or could head to Vanderbilt in the fall instead.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/billazbbphotog/status/987161716847816704?s=21

[Regular Show]

Some draft info from Klaw Chat:

 

Bucs666: Mr. Law, how signable is Kumar Rocker. I know that he is committed to Vanderbilt, but I was hoping that the Pirates would have a shot at him. Thank you.

Keith Law: I believe he is signable where he’s going to be drafted.

 

Jed: Has the quality of this year’s draft diminished in your mind after seeing most of the top guys fail to meet what was expected of them coming into the spring?

Keith Law: I think it is as deep as I thought in February, but the top ten is worse than I thought it would be.

 

Kevin: How far from the big leagues is Casey Mize?

Keith Law: If healthy, and we assume he doesn’t pitch at all this summer, I’d say by the All-Star Break next year.

 

Jacob: What kind of tools does Jarred Kelenic possess? I am trying to understand what kind of upside he could have and having difficulty.

Keith Law: So is everyone else, since he’s played something like two games outdoors so far. I don’t believe he has any 70 tools, but it’s a lot of above average – hit, field, throw, run – and the potential for above-average power.

 

Mike: If you had to guess, do you think Jordyn Adams will sign or will he end up at Carolina?

Keith Law: Carolina. My understanding from scouts is that he is committed to football. And there is no way I’m paying him seven figures to go get his brains scrambled every fall and spring.

 

Jacob: Joey Bart seems to be raking in terms of avg and power. Does his hit tool make the 50-55 grade and could his ability to call games combined with his tools mean he could be a fast riser through the minors?

Keith Law: I don’t think he has an average hit tool. He’s the best catching prospect in the class by a mile, though, so he’s going to go off the board pretty early, and I would guess he’s a two years to the majors guy.

 

Ryan: Which of the big Vanderbilt commits do you think have a decent (>30 percent) chance of coming to campus?

Keith Law: Austin Becker seems most likely. I don’t know what Hankins’ actual injury is at this point, but I could see him choosing Vandy over taking a fraction of the bonus he might have expected with a healthy spring.

 

Gilbert: Greyson Jenista did not make you updated top 50. What do you see that is keeping him from making that list?

Keith Law: He’s not very good.

 

Jason: Thanks for the chat. I’ve seen Kelenic mentioned as a possibility for the Tigers first overall. How bad would Mize’s medical have to be for the Tigers to turn in another direction?

Keith Law: A cold weather HS bat first overall, a kid who’ll play just a handful of games outside all spring … I can’t say it’s wrong, because maybe Kelenic is the next coming of Mike Trout, but whoa boy is that a risk I could not stomach.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I still think he's going somewhere in the 2nd round. Might be an overslot candidate for some teams.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Regular Show]

 

So I'm guessing we have the first TJS victim in this draft class? That sucks for him. He's a good pitching prospect and was rising.

 

Edit: So apparently he's going to miss 2-3 weeks. Not sure if he needs TJS or not.

 

http://usatodayhss.com/2018/all-usa-watch-mike-vasil-to-miss-2-3-weeks-with-arm-injury

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

This should probably go in the 2019 Draft thread, but that doesn't exist yet lol. Bobby Witt Jr. is well known and very highly rated. A ton of top prospects have played in this game over the years.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/988536153707089920[/tweet]

 

This kid is rising pretty fast -- Keith Law is really high on him.

 

So I watched video of him pitching and I'm not a big fan. Great stuff and a plus fastball, but I feel like the team drafting him is going to have to clean up his pitching mechanics.