How HAS our FO done with pitching?

[davell]

Hrubes mentioned the FO not developing pitching. Obviously, we've FOUND and developed it. But, how are we actually looking when it comes to the draft? 5 drafts in, its probably still a bit too early to grade. Especially since we've not taken a single pitcher inside the 1st round, as of yet.

 

2012

 

1-S Pierce Johnson- Disappointment? I'm not there yet, he's looking like he's going to contribute out of the pen this year.

1-S Paul Blackburn- Was borderline top 25ish guy, used in trade to help net Montgomery.

2- Duane Underwood- Has been disappointing, but IS thought of enough to make the 40 man and started off strong in his opening start. Still young enough to dream on.

3- Ryan McNeil- Had a solid year out of the pen, non zero chance he finds his way into a ML pen in a couple of years.

4- Josh Conway- Battled injuries, finally got cut recently.

5- Anthony Prieto- Did nothing.

6- Trey Lang- Did nothing.

8- Michael Heesch- Stuck around a bit. Did nothing.

10- Chad Martin- Did nothing.

 

Overview- Took lots of pitching. Johnson may contribute out of the pen. Blackburn helped net us an important piece. Underwood still has a chance and is on the 40 man. So, even the first year gets an incomplete at this stage.

 

2013

 

2- Rob Zastryzny- Contributed last year. Looks like a swingman, doubt he's a long term starter, at any point.

4- Tyler Skulina- Nope

5- Trey Masek- Nope(I admittedly was happy we took him)

6- Scott Frazier- Hell no.

7- David Garner- Nope

8- Sam Wilson- Nope

10- Zach Godley- Well, he's made the majors for Arizona. He helped net us Miggy. So, this pick was far from a total loss.

 

Overview- Took college pitching exclusively inside the top 10 rounds. Far from a success, but Godley helped thru trade(and has the most ML innings of anyone the FO has drafted with the Cubs.) If Rob Z develops into a pen arm, this class isn't a failure completely. If not, its obviously bad.

 

That said, the 12th Round brought us Trevor Clifton on an over slot deal. So, the class is actually dependent on a non top 10 rounder. And he's looking like our first real shot at developing a starter. Borderline top 100 guy currently.

 

2014

 

2- Jake Stinnett- Disappointing so far. Would like to see him come out of the pen though and open it up.

4- Carson Sands- Solidly disappointing. Doubtful he's got much of a shot.

5- Justin Steele- Athletic. Has solid stuff, disappointing results. Too early to give up on and is in MB rotation anyway.

6- Dylan Cease- Consensus top 100 prospect. Could move quickly, now that he's in full season ball.

7- James Norwood- Throws hard. Pen arm. Non zero chance of eventual contribution, but it doesn't look good.

8- Tommy Thorpe- Nope

9- James Farris- traded for Eddie Butler

10- Ryan Williams- Advanced to Iowa, probably considered a victory for a 1,000 senior sign. If he's healthy, he'll eventually pitch in the majors.

 

26th rounder Zach Hedges gets a mention. He's in the Tennessee rotation and probably sees Iowa this year.

 

Overview

 

Cease has legit value now. Whether he makes it to Chicago or is dealt, he's going to net us something. Steele is still interesting, Hedges kind of is too. And Ryan Williams could wind up as the first guy to become a rotation piece, if things go well. At any rate, this draft class is a success, as far as I'm concerned.

 

2015

 

3- Bryan Hudson- Goofy tall. Doesn't throw hard. But, still intriguing, too early to give up on him. Things could come together quick.(or he could be released within a year or two)

5- Ryan Kellogg- Not exciting, but should be good in MB, and if he could add a few MPH, he's actually interesting. Probably a decent bet to log a few ML innings for someone eventually.

6- David Berg- Was excited and thought he'd be in the ML pen this year honestly. Doesn't look like the stuff takes him to the majors though.

7- Craig Brooks- Nope

8- Preston Morrison- No stuff, but knows how to pitch. Another guy that seems likely to log some ML innings at some point.

9- Tyler Peitzmeier- Gotta be honest. I don't even remember this dude.

 

Casey Bloomquist in round 17 and Kyle Miller in round 19 seem to be good org guys at least.

 

Overview

 

This is the weakest class we've got. We conceivably may not see a single ML inning out of any of this group(or get anything in trade). Hudson COULD still turn into something. Kellogg and Morrison are guys everyone has, if they make the majors, its probably not with us.

 

Too soon to list the 2016 guys. But, I'm generally pleased at this point, with what's being said about Hatch, Miller, and Clark. Plus, Mekkes is super interesting too.

 

As far as who we missed out on, from the 2012-2015 classes......

 

Its unfair to list guys taken BEFORE when our 2nd pick was.

 

2012- Eddie Butler went behind Johnson and before Blackburn. Alex Wood went 85th overall, behind Underwood. I don't think missing on Chris Beck or Paco Rodriguez is a big deal.

 

2013-Cody Reed and Dillon Overton were 2nd rounders. Jeff Thompson was a 3rd rounder, so was Tom Milone. Stephen Gonsalves was a 4th rounder. Matt Boyd was a 6th rounder. Chad Kuhl was a 9th rounder.

 

2014- I guess Cody Reed got drafted again here. Eric Skoglund and Matt Provse are decent 3rd round prospects. Daniel Mengden and Jordan Montgomery were both 4th rounders. Jacob Nix and Brock Stewart were 6th rounders. Trevor Oaks was a 7th rounder.

 

2015- Josh Staumont was a 2nd rounder. Jacob Nix went in the 3rd this time. Chance Adams went in the 5th. Patrick Weigel went in the 7th. Koda Glover went in the 8th.

 

I'm not looking at 2016 yet.

 

Again, this is what's turned into ANYTHING. Not necessarily even MLers yet. A few may not even be top 10 prospects in our system.

 

There's at least one, maybe a couple I can't remember, that went after round 10 and turned into something. Deleon from the Dodgers, that got dealt for Forsythe, being the one I remember.

 

In the end, I'm just showing what we already know: If you don't take pitching early- Its extremely low odds that you're developing anything.

 

In order of importance.....

 

Cease, Clifton, Zastryzny, Johnson, Underwood, Williams, Steele

 

Realistically, I'm too lazy to look up each teams efforts....But, after scanning these lists and listing the guys that are considered relatively decent.....I'd be SHOCKED if there are 5 teams that have better ammo outside of where we drafted our 2nd rounder, when it comes to pitching. In fact, I would bet the Dodgers are the only team that's done better. Maybe the Yankees.

 

And again, our 2016 class appears to be starting off on the right foot too.

 

As far as I can see, they've done a great job with pitching in the draft, when you're not taking it in the 1st ever. If that changes this year, I'll be excited. Because our track record on 1sts seems to be fairly decent lol. But, in comparison, our drafting of pitching outside the 1st has been pretty damn good too.

[Thrilho]

Heh after watching the start our pitching is off to I was just thinking about posting in today's minor thread something along the lines of "imagine the slobber jobs that will be written about this FO if the pitching they drafted starts hitting." A thread about it is more fun though, so thanks. 2016 is looking really promising, Cease looking dominant and Clifton/DLC starting out like you'd hope they would. Then guys like Hudson, Steele, Tseng, Underwood who had started to slip of the radar starting out well. Morrison and Kellogg seem like potential MLB starters.

 

I don't know how many guys out of there could be break through but you know...imagine if they did. It'll be fun checking out these box scores for pitching, knowing the big club + Iowa have the big league position spots pretty well locked up for a while.

[craig]

Thanks for post, Dave.

 

Yeah, story isn't finished yet, really.

 

After a night like tonight, I'm thinking "wow, if Cease and Steele pitch like tonight more consistently, look out!"

 

If Clifton and Cease work out, other fans might be totally jealous of hitting on a couple of non-firsts.

 

Part of the take-home from your thread is how non-first-rounders don't hit all that often, lately.

 

With two late first rounders coming up, wonder how they'll develop, if one or both are pitchers?

 

Stinnett, haven't seen him on a roster. Wonder what's happened with him?

[CubsWin]

Stinnett, haven't seen him on a roster. Wonder what's happened with him?

He's listed on Tennessee's 7-day DL. No word as to the malady.

 

davell, I too would like to see him move to the pen. That's where he spent the most time in college and there's a decent chance he adds velo if/when he makes the move to the pen. I'd like to see how his stuff would play in that role.

[davell]

By the way, here are the pitchers from each year drafted PRIOR to our 2nd pick in the drafts between 2012-2014. Too soon to go further.

 

2012

 

4) Gausman- Pretty solid ML SP, with upside

7) Fried- Wow, forgot he's been around THIS long. Still a solid prospect, but he's been around a while.

8) Appel- Yeah.

9) Heaney- ML starter, battling injuries too.

14) Travieso- still in AA

16) Giolito- Great pick, considering how his value peaked. But, doubtful he lives up to that hype.

19) Wacha- OK ML starter that shined at first.

20) Stratton- Not much.

21) Sims- Probably sees the majors as a pen arm at some point.

22) Stroman- Great pick.

30) Hensley- Nope.

31) Johnson- Not special at all.

32) Berrios- May wind up decent.

33) Eflin- Has upside, but no real contributions yet either.

37) Light- Nope

40) Watson- Nope

41) McCullers- Very solid. Only fell due to bonus demands. Was top 10 talent.

42) Bard- Nope

 

What do you think? That's kind of scary to me. A few true successes, a few more that have hit the majors, and more that just washed out. A few prospects still running around too, so the return on investment is super slow.

 

2013

 

1) Appel- Yeah

3) Gray- Looks the part so far.

4) Stewart- No.

7) Ball- No.

10) Bickford- Not really.

15) Shipley- Still a prospect, likely pitches in the majors. But nothing special

18) Anderson- Nope.

19) Gonzalez- 1st to see the majors. But hasn't done much.

22) Harvey- Has had 103 arm injuries

23) Gonzalez- Not much

28) Kaminsky- Not exciting generic lefty

29) Stanek- looks like a good pen arm

31) Hursh- Nope

33) Clarkin- not great.

34) Manaea- Solid. Only fell due to bonus demands

35) Krook- struggled, regained velo, may still become something

36) Blair- struggled bigly in majors

38) Lorenzen- not great Bob. But has pitched at least

39) Knebel- decent pen arm

40) Thurman- Nope

 

Well, that scares the horsefeathers out of anyone. KB is going to easily double the career WAR of that entire class.

 

2014

 

1) Aiken- LOL

2) Kolek- LOLOL

3) Rodon- solid ML starter

7) Nola- decent ML starter

8) Freeland- looks decent so far

9) Hoffman- has upside

12) Medeiros- no

14) Beede- No, but will see the majors

15) Newcomb- still a top 100 prospect

16) Toussaint- decent prospect

17) Finnegan- decent pitcher, still improving

18) Fedde- still OK prospect

19) Howard- no

22) Holmes- still solid prospect

27) Weaver- hurt, solid prospect

28) Griffin- no

30) Ortiz- no

31) Sheffield- top 100 prospect

33) Kopech- top 20 prospect

34) Flaherty- not likely to be more than back end guy, at best

44) Adams- not really

 

Not AS MANY utter failures yet. But, that's attrition, waiting to happen. The grim pitching reaper will claim more of these guys soon. Rodon, Nola, and Finnegan are the only 3 who're definitively entrenched in the majors so far.

 

So, what does this tell us?

 

1) Considering the guys from these 3 drafts even drafted prior to our 2nd round pick, we've done extremely well. Well enough to give me confidence in taking pitchers at 27 and 30, if we see guys we like.

 

2) Most teams need to stay FAR away from pitching early. Because they suck at drafting it.

 

Seriously, if it were anyone outside of our group, I'd say no to us taking it early this year. But, I think our track record stacks up pretty decently, even WITHOUT the early rounders.

 

And we can laugh maniacally at how bad most teams truly are at drafting. This is some scary stuff.

[mul21]

Just ballpark, how many of those top 10 pitching selections were made with the idea of saving bonus dollars for other picks? Maybe half? Less?

[craig]

We'll

.... health, and durability .....

 

As far as prospects...meh.... Yes there's Cease (TJ), de la Cruz (missed most of 2016 to elbow something) .....

 

Health is huge issue for the prospects. And many of the Cubs guys have missed time: de la Cruz, Underwood, Johnson, Albertos, perhaps Hudson, Kellogg, Tseng, etc..

 

Hard to know how to factor. I tend to ding prospect with DL time. But I wonder if in other orgs, some of our guys would have never been held back? Maybe Cubs guys might be LESS vulnerable to injury, and our guys who've had some down-time aren't actually that risky?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Great post, davell. As you said, it's probably still too early to grade. We've seen practically no dividends so far. But, all it would take would be for a Dylan Cease to really blow up and turn into a big deal for everything before it to be wiped away. And even if it were only, say, Pierce Johnson helping us out of the pen for awhile, I'll take that, too. I think we'll start to see some return on investment, soon, though.

[davell]

Just ballpark, how many of those top 10 pitching selections were made with the idea of saving bonus dollars for other picks? Maybe half? Less?

 

I'm sure Raisin has bonus amounts, but here's from my memory.....

 

2012- Heesch and Martin were WAY under slot. The rest were what I'd call legit picks for when they were taken. Even Lang was close to/or was a top 200ish draft prospect. I think Prieto was the lowest ranked of the guys that got bonuses that year. Again, some may have received under slot, but still got very solid bonuses. Heesch and Martin were senior signs and got 20,000 or less.

 

2/9

 

2013- Pretty sure this entire group all received decent bonuses. Godley MAY not have, so I'll count him as a discount guy.

 

1/7

 

2014- Stinnett was a senior sign and received less than slot. But, was highly ranked and still got 800,000 or so. Obviously, Sands, Steele, and Cease were all over slots by a bunch. Norwood was around slot. I think Thorpe got close to 100K, but I'm not sure. I'll count him as a discount guy though. Farris and Williams were senior signs and got next to nothing.

 

3/8

 

2015- Hudson got over slot. Kellogg got slot. I think the other 4 were all under slotted. But, I honestly am drawing a blank on by how much. I think Berg got decent money. For some reason, I think Brooks got over 100K. Don't think the other 2 did.

 

3/6

 

2016- Hatch, Miller, and Clark all got solid money. Hockin did too. I think Ridings got a bit under 100k. Robinson was cheap. Mekkes was an over slot.

 

2/7

 

So, 11/37 of our top 10 round pitching picks were under slotted at least a sizable amount and got under 100k.

 

This is surely not 100% correct. But, its fairly close probably.

[Hrubes20]

To be accurate, I said amateur pitching talent, which includes IFA and makes the successes of other teams all the more glaring in comparison. Teams like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers, etc have had much more success than we have there. It especially sucks to see the Cards produce LA flamethrower after LA flamethrower.

 

It is a Cubs forum afterall, but you are viewing a lot of these guys with blue-colored glasses, IMO. That entire 2012 class looks like crap right now and it's unlikely any of them pitch meaningful innings for the big league team. Zastryszny is the only guy in 2013, and he could be a long reliever. Cease does look like he can be a dynamite reliever if he can stay healthy; certainly not a given with him already having TJS. Steele can't throw strikes and is barely worth mentioning anymore, as his stuff isn't good enough with no command. The rest of that class is trash. The entire 2015 looks pretty terrible as well, unless Hudson can pull it together after a disastrous 2016. The latest from AZPhil sounds good, though.

 

You're also missing a lot of legit pitching prospects or big league contributors that were taken after the Cubs' 2nd round pick in your assessment of other teams. I don't want to go through all of them, but here are some top 100 prospects or HM top 100 types you omitted:

 

Brent Honeywell

Josh Hader

Amir Garrett

Stephen Gonsalves

Mitch Keller

Jose De Leon

Brandon Woodruff

Jharrel Cotton

Anthony Banda

Juan Hillman

Daniel Gossett

Conner Greene

 

Some of the big leaguers off the top of my head and I'm sure there are many more, but I don't have time to look at every roster:

 

Edwin Diaz

Keone Kela

Robert Gsellman

Kyle Barraclough

Kyle Crockett

 

 

But the numbers are obviously still low. I would like to see the percentage of "hits" during this time period, as it feels like the Cubs took more pitchers than most teams, yet still had maybe an average amount of guys somewhat pan out.

[davell]

I was scanning thru. I knew I'd miss some guys. But again, if you literally separate it out, team by team, I stand by what I said originally. We've done just fine, considering we've not taken ANY 1st rounders.

 

I left out IFA's on purpose. Its way too early to judge ANYONE'S efforts in the time frame the FO has been in charge. In fact, outside of Urias, I'm not sure there's another guy that's even in the majors yet that the Cubs have missed on. What sucks is we thought we had Urias and the Dodgers stole him from us at an unknown Puig showcase, set up by a guy close to Logan White, at the time. They offered him a bit more than we had and got him to sign on their first viewing of him, without allowing him to call us. If that had worked out differently, we wouldnt even be having this discussion. Reyes? But, he was a 2012 signee, and had committed prior to Theo even taking charge. As most IFA's typically do obviously. The 2012 class was mostly not of this groups doing. Paniagua was though.

 

At the same time, its very likely De La Cruz was already agreed to as well, prior to Theo. So, he gets only developmental credit and not credit for finding him.

 

The easiest way to truly look thru things would be to look at a teams entire minor league pitching roster, plus guys already contributing in the majors. Even regardless of where the guys were picked. I'd bet the Cubs still show up top half or so, over this time period.

 

In the end, I really think you're jumping the gun on how they've done. This is a conversation two years premature, in my mind.

 

As far as needing to go after the Archers of the world though, I disagree. I think the price is way too prohibitive. Maybe Darvish or Cueto isn't a great investment. Maybe Otani wants the 8-10 mill bonus, over the 300K we can offer him.

 

But, I feel extremely confident that mid season of next year, if we are in need of a TOR type, we'll find one. Be it a rental or a longer term guy. That said, I think they've surrounded our pitching with enough defense, that we will continue to find enough guys that are successful, that keep us from needing to ante up for the major pitching acquisition.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Speaking of the Cardinals ability to find and develop LA arms, Carlos Martinez initially signed with Theo and the Red Sox. He had his contract voided because he lied about his name and age. Ended up getting a velocity gain while suspended and turned that into a big bonus from the Cardinals. There's some luck involved in all of this.

[Hrubes20]

 

I left out IFA's on purpose. Its way too early to judge ANYONE'S efforts in the time frame the FO has been in charge. In fact, outside of Urias, I'm not sure there's another guy that's even in the majors yet that the Cubs have missed on. What sucks is we thought we had Urias and the Dodgers stole him from us at an unknown Puig showcase, set up by a guy close to Logan White, at the time. They offered him a bit more than we had and got him to sign on their first viewing of him, without allowing him to call us. If that had worked out differently, we wouldnt even be having this discussion. Reyes? But, he was a 2012 signee, and had committed prior to Theo even taking charge. As most IFA's typically do obviously. The 2012 class was mostly not of this groups doing. Paniagua was though.

 

As far as needing to go after the Archers of the world though, I disagree. I think the price is way too prohibitive. Maybe Darvish or Cueto isn't a great investment. Maybe Otani wants the 8-10 mill bonus, over the 300K we can offer him.

 

I strongly disagree. Just because it's unlikely many IFA's have made the bigs yet, doesn't mean we have to ignore prospect status and minor league success. Hell, that's exactly what we did for many of the draft picks during this time. Other teams have multiple LA arms that are showing great in the minors. I believe the Cubs have spent more in IFA in this FO's time than any other team not named the Dodgers (who are loaded with LA arm talent). Yet they don't have the number of regarded LA pitching prospects that teams spending far less have. That could change if Marquez blows up, De La Cruz and Albertos can actually stay healthy enough to log some innings, etc. But as of now, there just isn't as much as there probably should be.

 

Otani won't be available to the Cubs this offseason, so we can forget him. And it would just depend on what a guy like Archer could be had for. It may very well be so costly in prospects that it makes zero sense. But what got this whole discussion started was the idea that Happ was too much to give up. That's just absurd.

[Hrubes20]

Speaking of the Cardinals ability to find and develop LA arms, Carlos Martinez initially signed with Theo and the Red Sox. He had his contract voided because he lied about his name and age. Ended up getting a velocity gain while suspended and turned that into a big bonus from the Cardinals. There's some luck involved in all of this.

 

That goes without saying.

[craig]

The volume of meaningful hits is also small enough, for most any team, that the perceptions can change fairly quickly.

If Cease and Clifton emerge as two variably capable rotation guys, nobody's talking about this being a failure. If de la Cruz and/or Albertos turn out, procure-and-develop would look pretty good.

 

Not to be overly defensive, but for whatever they've spend in LA, they haven't signed many pitchers. Tseng and Albertos are the only IFA pitchers they've spent on.

 

That may be criticized as a foolish strategy, that moneys spent on Eloy and Sierra and Ademan and Amaya should have been invested in arms instead. But I think it's a bit of a specious argument to infer they've done a poor IFA job with pitching while spending a lot; they haven't.

[craig]

Whatever take one has on all of this, I think even for the apologists/supporters, we have to agree that there ought to be some production pretty soon. This winter, we're talk only three significant pitching prospects in de la Cruz, Clifton, and Cease, and none had gotten out of A-ball. It's time to have more success.

 

Early results are encouraging, but every pitcher is strong in April and not many guys hit much then. We'll see how guys like Clifton, Underwood, Tseng, de la Cruz, Steele, Miller etc. are looking ten starts in.

[craig]

...?? Kellogg's on the DL because the WBC trip threw off March work rather than an actual injury. ...

 

Ah, thanks. Didn't realize.

[davell]

 

I left out IFA's on purpose. Its way too early to judge ANYONE'S efforts in the time frame the FO has been in charge. In fact, outside of Urias, I'm not sure there's another guy that's even in the majors yet that the Cubs have missed on. What sucks is we thought we had Urias and the Dodgers stole him from us at an unknown Puig showcase, set up by a guy close to Logan White, at the time. They offered him a bit more than we had and got him to sign on their first viewing of him, without allowing him to call us. If that had worked out differently, we wouldnt even be having this discussion. Reyes? But, he was a 2012 signee, and had committed prior to Theo even taking charge. As most IFA's typically do obviously. The 2012 class was mostly not of this groups doing. Paniagua was though.

 

As far as needing to go after the Archers of the world though, I disagree. I think the price is way too prohibitive. Maybe Darvish or Cueto isn't a great investment. Maybe Otani wants the 8-10 mill bonus, over the 300K we can offer him.

 

I strongly disagree. Just because it's unlikely many IFA's have made the bigs yet, doesn't mean we have to ignore prospect status and minor league success. Hell, that's exactly what we did for many of the draft picks during this time. Other teams have multiple LA arms that are showing great in the minors. I believe the Cubs have spent more in IFA in this FO's time than any other team not named the Dodgers (who are loaded with LA arm talent). Yet they don't have the number of regarded LA pitching prospects that teams spending far less have. That could change if Marquez blows up, De La Cruz and Albertos can actually stay healthy enough to log some innings, etc. But as of now, there just isn't as much as there probably should be.

 

Otani won't be available to the Cubs this offseason, so we can forget him. And it would just depend on what a guy like Archer could be had for. It may very well be so costly in prospects that it makes zero sense. But what got this whole discussion started was the idea that Happ was too much to give up. That's just absurd.

 

I don't want to trade Happ. But, I'd deal him for Archer. That's a no-brainer. I would not deal him AND Eloy in a deal for him. I'd hesitate including Eloy for Archer, without Happ. I'd do it, but I'd hate it and figure it blows up in my face.

 

I can't argue about how much money we've spent on IFA's.....I'm not really a fan that we've concentrated THAT money towards hitting over pitching too. I understand the typical reasoning. But, I'd surely have liked to have seen an extra pitcher each year we spent big.

 

Gutierrez should have been ours. Morejon getting cleared late hurt us. I'm thinking Bolanos or Perez would have helped. Ruiz. We weren't spending the 30 mill total for Alvarez, even if I hoped we would. Timing of clearance hurt us on most of this group.

 

The unfortunate thing though, is our 2 years of "all in" IFA thinking.....The pitching WAS weak in those classes. Both of them.(and the cool thing is I know you know this lol). We got Tseng, Medina, and Moreno out of the 1st one. Needless to say, that doesn't look great. Moreno still interests me quite a bit though.

 

Our 2nd class seems weak to me overall, based on the amount we spent. I think we came to agreements too early on lots of the group and they took a step backward overall developmentally, during the signing year. Which screwed us. Not a horrible class, but nothing close to Eloy/Gleyber. But.....Albertos(if healthy) is the EXACT type that can turn this conversation moot. Marquez is a solid signing. Assad, Carrera, maybe another guy or two, all help the overall cause.

 

Agree to disagree on when is time to question our success. But post more. Seriously. I'm glad the IFA stuff has you interested enough to debate. You follow that as close as any of us and I really hope you join in much more often.

[Donzo]

At another Cubs board I was part of, a couple posters said the Cubs 2nd round pick in 2014 was between Stinnett and Brent Honeywell. Things would be considerably different with Honeywell in the system.

 

By the end of season, with good luck with health, I think the Cubs' pitching prospects will be looking good. The problem is the cubs will need starting pitching in 2018 and the system will till be a year a way from helping.

 

The Cubs went strong with position players with massive success. What we have to prepared for is when the Cubs leverage some of those position players into pitchers in 2018.

[CubsWin]

For me, the Cubs minor league pitching situation can be summed up in 3 words "interesting question marks". Of course, there's always the popular notion that all pitching prospects are question marks, but I don't buy into that language. They're plenty of good pitchers in the majors and at one point in time they were all prospects.

 

Some teams have more success than others in scouting and developing them, and I think that's what this discussion is really about. Tracking the Cubs results in doing exactly that. And I agree, the jury is largely still out.

 

It's not surprising that the Cubs pitching prospects are, for the most part, prep draftees and IFAs since the Cubs prioritized college bats over college arms in the first round. College pitchers have a longer track record and the good ones usually go early. It's also not surprising then that the jury is still out as prep arms take longer to develop into big league ready arms.

 

Clifton, Cease, De La Cruz, Albertos (the Cubs top 4 pitching prospects per MLB) all fall into this category. Of those, only De La Cruz is over 21 (he turned 22 a month and 10 days ago). Underwood, Steele, Hudson, Moreno and Marquez follow. The average age of those 9 prospects is 20 years and 266 days. Even the college arms are still fairly young. Hatch is 22 and Miller is 21. No wonder the jury is still out.

 

This year should tell us a lot, though. I, for one, am very excited to see how each of those guys develops.

[davell]

I decided to look a bit further with this, to see exactly where the FO stacks up, versus other teams. I used BA's 2017 Handbook. Not perfect, but a relatively decent gauge. I wanted to see what teams have done as well, or better, with drafting pitching after our non-1st round pick, over the 2012-2015 period. I also went ahead and included IFA signings too.

 

BA has Cease at 4, De La Cruz at 5, Clifton at 8, and Albertos at 10. I looked thru entire top 30's, but only went 15 deep in this exercise for teams ranked higher than us(16th). Went 10 deep on teams ranked in our general range, and only 5 deep on teams in the bottom 7.

 

In TOTAL, there are 41 pitchers drafted during that time that'd fit inside our top 10, that were picked after our 2nd pick. There are 15 IFA's that fall under the same criteria, of being in our top 10. I did NOT include Espinosa or a couple of others that went for more than 300K in years we couldn't spend that much.

 

Anyway, the teams on a par, or that have done better than us.....

 

Dodgers- Urias, Cotton, Alvarez, Deleon, Stewart, Oaks

 

Royals- Staumont, Strahm, Skoglund, Blewett

 

Brewers- Hader, Woodruff, Diplan

 

Phillies- Sanchez, Kilome, Pivetta

 

Cardinals- Reyes, Alcantara

 

Rays- Honeywell, Hu, Schultz

 

Yankees- Adams, Acevedo, Montgomery, Green

 

Are we better than some of these? Sure. Some are also clearly better than us.

 

At any rate, we're in the upper 25% of MLB, when it comes to success outside the 1st round, in pertaining to pitching. I thought we'd be slightly higher, but its still a very solid showing.

[Hrubes20]

I decided to look a bit further with this, to see exactly where the FO stacks up, versus other teams. I used BA's 2017 Handbook. Not perfect, but a relatively decent gauge. I wanted to see what teams have done as well, or better, with drafting pitching after our non-1st round pick, over the 2012-2015 period. I also went ahead and included IFA signings too.

 

BA has Cease at 4, De La Cruz at 5, Clifton at 8, and Albertos at 10. I looked thru entire top 30's, but only went 15 deep in this exercise for teams ranked higher than us(16th). Went 10 deep on teams ranked in our general range, and only 5 deep on teams in the bottom 7.

 

In TOTAL, there are 41 pitchers drafted during that time that'd fit inside our top 10, that were picked after our 2nd pick. There are 15 IFA's that fall under the same criteria, of being in our top 10. I did NOT include Espinosa or a couple of others that went for more than 300K in years we couldn't spend that much.

 

Anyway, the teams on a par, or that have done better than us.....

 

Dodgers- Urias, Cotton, Alvarez, Deleon, Stewart, Oaks

 

Royals- Staumont, Strahm, Skoglund, Blewett

 

Brewers- Hader, Woodruff, Diplan

 

Phillies- Sanchez, Kilome, Pivetta

 

Cardinals- Reyes, Alcantara

 

Rays- Honeywell, Hu, Schultz

 

Yankees- Adams, Acevedo, Montgomery, Green

 

Are we better than some of these? Sure. Some are also clearly better than us.

 

At any rate, we're in the upper 25% of MLB, when it comes to success outside the 1st round, in pertaining to pitching. I thought we'd be slightly higher, but its still a very solid showing.

 

Good work on this. Did that include the guys drafted that already reached the majors?

[davell]

I decided to look a bit further with this, to see exactly where the FO stacks up, versus other teams. I used BA's 2017 Handbook. Not perfect, but a relatively decent gauge. I wanted to see what teams have done as well, or better, with drafting pitching after our non-1st round pick, over the 2012-2015 period. I also went ahead and included IFA signings too.

 

BA has Cease at 4, De La Cruz at 5, Clifton at 8, and Albertos at 10. I looked thru entire top 30's, but only went 15 deep in this exercise for teams ranked higher than us(16th). Went 10 deep on teams ranked in our general range, and only 5 deep on teams in the bottom 7.

 

In TOTAL, there are 41 pitchers drafted during that time that'd fit inside our top 10, that were picked after our 2nd pick. There are 15 IFA's that fall under the same criteria, of being in our top 10. I did NOT include Espinosa or a couple of others that went for more than 300K in years we couldn't spend that much.

 

Anyway, the teams on a par, or that have done better than us.....

 

Dodgers- Urias, Cotton, Alvarez, Deleon, Stewart, Oaks

 

Royals- Staumont, Strahm, Skoglund, Blewett

 

Brewers- Hader, Woodruff, Diplan

 

Phillies- Sanchez, Kilome, Pivetta

 

Cardinals- Reyes, Alcantara

 

Rays- Honeywell, Hu, Schultz

 

Yankees- Adams, Acevedo, Montgomery, Green

 

Are we better than some of these? Sure. Some are also clearly better than us.

 

At any rate, we're in the upper 25% of MLB, when it comes to success outside the 1st round, in pertaining to pitching. I thought we'd be slightly higher, but its still a very solid showing.

 

Good work on this. Did that include the guys drafted that already reached the majors?

 

I think I got them all. Believe it or not, Gsellman and Garrett were actually drafted back in 2011, pre-Theo. Its still a bit of preference. I didn't list Seattle, with Diaz and Gohara, for instance. Conceivably, someone could put them with the upper tier teams.

 

The interesting things to take from this, in my mind, is MOST of the top 30 IFA pitchers were signed for 50K or less. The Marlins created quite a few, despite not spending any money there. The Astros too, have had plenty of success with cheap guys. Again, not meaning top end guys, but turning 10K investments into top 30's in their system.

 

The other thing that was surprising to me, was how many guys still in top 30's that were drafted or signed prior to 2012.