2017 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[SouthSideRyan]

what happens to USC when we lose to a fultz-less washington team tonight?

 

I'd probably still have them in, but they'll be right on the edge.

[SouthSideRyan]

Bucknell wins Patriot.

[bukie]

Top 18 nitty gritty, randomly sorted, blind poll:

Team   AdjEM   1-25    26-50   51-100  101-200 200+    R/N     Conf
A      +27.85  6-3     4-2     5-1     2-1     7-0     8-5     +19.26
B      +27.81  3-5     4-3     7-1     4-0     4-0     10-5    +17.30
C      +30.14  2-2     7-1     10-0    7-0     2-0     14-2    +14.81
D      +23.85  4-2     1-0     5-1     8-0     9-0     12-2    +9.90
E      +25.06  1-2     3-0     6-2     9-0     7-0     9-4     +6.24
F      +24.51  1-3     8-1     6-1     4-0     6-0     10-4    +13.78
G      +23.59  2-2     2-0     11-2    6-0     5-0     10-4    +9.90
H      +27.78  6-3     5-2     5-1     5-0     3-0     11-6    +17.30
I      +27.06  4-5     6-2     3-0     7-0     3-0     8-6     +17.30
J      +27.13  2-4     5-0     10-1    5-0     4-0     11-3    +12.29
K      +26.66  8-2     6-1     6-0     5-0     3-0     14-2    +19.26
L      +32.92  6-0     0-0     3-1     11-0    12-0    17-0    +1.25
M      +27.19  1-4     4-3     10-0    4-0     3-0     15-6    +12.29
N      +23.07  4-2     8-2     1-2     6-1     5-0     6-7     +17.30
O      +24.00  4-4     7-3     4-0     5-1     4-0     9-7     +17.30
P      +22.56  2-2     3-0     5-2     8-0     9-0     9-4     +6.24
Q      +25.72  6-4     7-2     5-0     1-0     5-0     10-4    +19.26
R      +21.70  1-4     2-0     5-0     14-0    4-0     12-3    +9.90

 

AdjEM is the adjusted efficiency margin of the team taking into account margin of victory and schedule strength.

The various records are vs KP top 25/50/100/200/+ and Road/Neutral record

Conf is the relative conference rating compared to the average conference.

 

Today, figure out the top 12 among that list, and start sorting through the rest of the at-larges.

 

I'm midway through a nitty gritty for the one bid leagues (that looks hilariously different from this), but I'll get to is after work.

[bukie]

And yes, I know you can tell which one is Gonzaga.

[bukie]

As for the way I see it, there's clearly a top 3 of C, K and L in some order, followed by a clear next 3 of A, H and Q. After that things get subjective.

[weis21]

Just want to say thanks for doing this.

 

I'm biased as a North Carolinian, but I really think from the (somewhat limited) CBB I've watched this year the ACC is hands down the best conference and I'll probably have a hard time bouncing any of them from the first (second now I guess) round in my brackets.

 

I also think UNCW is sneaky good and could upset a team or two.

 

Again, nothing I say here matters because I'm basically ignorant with CBB this year but just my two cents.

 

Mainly I just wanted to say thank you and see if anyone had a sleeper pick to upset in the early rounds of the NCAAT

[woodchip2153]

I'll give this a shot. Hopefully I'm not totally out of whack.

 

K-L-C-Q-H-A-J-I-F-D-B-M-G-O-R-N-P-E

[SouthSideRyan]

KCLQH to start.

[bukie]

Just want to say thanks for doing this.

 

I'm biased as a North Carolinian, but I really think from the (somewhat limited) CBB I've watched this year the ACC is hands down the best conference and I'll probably have a hard time bouncing any of them from the first (second now I guess) round in my brackets.

 

I also think UNCW is sneaky good and could upset a team or two.

 

Again, nothing I say here matters because I'm basically ignorant with CBB this year but just my two cents.

 

Mainly I just wanted to say thank you and see if anyone had a sleeper pick to upset in the early rounds of the NCAAT

Actually, the Big 12 is the highest rated conference in KP history this season, with all 10 teams in the top 70 overall.

 

As you can see in the conference ratings, there's a giant gap this year between the top 6 conferences and anyone else, such that it's nearly impossible for anyone outside those conferences to build a viable at large profile.

[UMFan83]

K-L-C-A-H-Q-I-B-J-M-D-O-N-E-F-G-P-R

[UMFan83]

I'm going to set up a blind poll based on nitty-gritty numbers for each protected seed potential, but won't get it until this evening. Until then the next steps are to rank the one bid entrants from the bottom and start sorting through the remaining at large bids.

 

I have to be perfectly honest, I would have a really hard time ranking those teams without pouring through the resumes of each one. I might have to sit this step out :(

What would your next 12 be on the board after the 18 liated?

 

17. Duke

18. Purdue

19. Butler

20. Arizona

21. Wisconsin

22. Notre Dame

23. Iowa St

24. Wichita St

25. Minnesota

26. Dayton

27. St. Marys

28. Michigan (yeah whats up...wanna fight about it?)

[bukie]

Duke, Purdue and Arizona are already among the 18 teams in the blind poll

[UMFan83]

Duke, Purdue and Arizona are already among the 18 teams in the blind poll

 

:banghead:

 

And I forgot Maryland, at the very least they should be ahead of Michigan

 

Put them between Minnesota and Dayton and then add OK State and Creighton at bottom

[UMFan83]

I'd like to put TCU back into at large consideration.

[bukie]

Here's how I see the blind poll:

 

L-K-C-H-Q-A-I-M-F-N-O-J-B-D-G-P-E-R

[bukie]

Here's the nitty gritty for the single bid leagues (best profile inserted when auto bid isn't set yet):

Team AdjEM  1-25   26-50  51-100 101-200200+   R/N    Conf
AA   +6.45  0-1    0-1    0-0    15-2   9-3    12-5   -0.45
BB   +8.71  0-0    1-2    1-1    3-4    21-1   11-6   -5.30
CC   +11.55 0-0    0-1    0-2    13-4   11-0   14-5   -0.21
DD   +5.21  0-2    0-1    2-0    3-3    18-1   10-4   -6.46
EE   +3.96  0-1    0-0    1-3    8-3    12-5   14-8   -3.41
FF   +0.61  0-0    0-2    1-2    3-4    14-6   15-9   -4.74
GG   +14.01 0-0    1-1    4-0    10-3   12-0   15-2   -3.80
HH   -4.22  0-3    0-2    0-2    1-3    18-5   8-11   -10.65
II   +12.83 0-1    0-0    4-3    12-2   10-0   13-5   +3.09
JJ   +6.32  0-0    0-0    0-1    9-4    14-0   10-4   -4.30
KK   -1.04  0-1    0-1    0-1    1-3    14-5   7-8    -8.37
LL   -0.61  0-0    0-0    0-1    5-4    12-4   9-7    -8.00
MM   +1.30  0-1    0-0    1-2    5-4    16-3   12-8   -3.48
NN   +11.90 0-0    0-1    1-3    6-2    13-0   11-5   -2.90
OO   -1.31  0-1    0-0    0-2    10-10  6-3    7-14   -2.09
PP   -3.12  0-4    0-1    0-1    2-3    19-2   11-11  -17.58
QQ   +2.23  0-2    0-0    0-5    3-1    13-5   8-11   -9.31
RR   +0.13  0-0    0-0    0-1    2-4    18-3   12-6   -17.13
SS   +12.36 0-0    0-1    4-2    13-2   10-0   16-4   +0.52
TT   +10.60 1-0    0-2    1-0    8-5    12-0   11-7   -1.14
UU   +12.36 0-1    0-2    0-1    12-0   14-0   13-4   -6.34
VV   +4.76  0-1    0-1    1-0    6-2    17-2   12-3   -8.63

 

Like I said before...yeesh.

[bukie]

As for the next 12 that I think should be considered:

Wichita State

Butler

St. Mary's

Iowa State

Oklahoma State

Michigan

Wisconsin

Notre Dame

Creighton

Minnesota

Dayton

South Carolina

[bukie]

Big board as of morning of 3/10:

 

Here are the current auto bids (12 of 32 set):

ACC: (North Carolina)

America East: (Vermont)

American: (SMU)

A-10: (Dayton)

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12: (West Virginia)

Big East: (Villanova)

Big Sky: (North Dakota)

Big South: Winthrop

Big Ten: (Purdue)

Big West: (UC Irvine)

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington

CUSA: (Middle Tennessee)

Horizon: Northern Kentucky

Ivy: (Princeton)

MAAC: Iona

MAC: (Akron)

MEAC: (UNC Central)

MVC: Wichita State

MWC: (Nevada)

NEC: Mount St. Mary's

OVC: Jacksonville State

Pac-12: (Oregon)

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: (Kentucky)

SoCon: East Tennessee State

Southland: (New Orleans)

SWAC: (Texas Southern)

Summit: South Dakota State

Sun Belt: (Texas Arlington)

WAC: (New Mexico State)

WCC: Gonzaga

 

 

Blind Pool Results:

1. K - Kansas

2. L - Gonzaga

3. C - Villanova

4. Q - Baylor

5. H - North Carolina

6. A - West Virginia

7. I - Louisville

8. J - Kentucky

9. M - Florida

10. B - Virginia

11. F - Purdue

12. D - UCLA

 

Next blind poll for spots 13-24 (seeds 4-6):

Duke

Arizona

Oregon

Florida State

SMU

Cincinnati

Wichita State

Butler

St. Mary's

Iowa State

Oklahoma State

Michigan

Wisconsin

Notre Dame

Creighton

Minnesota

Dayton

South Carolina

Maryland

 

 

Remaining at large pool (27 potentials for 7 to 15 bids):

ACC: Clemson, Miami FL, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

American: Houston

A-10: Rhode Island, VCU

Big East: Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier

Big 12: Kansas State, TCU

B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern

MVC: Illinois State

Pac-12: California, USC, Utah

SEC: Arkansas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

 

[bukie]

Here's the next blind poll for seeds 13-24 on the at-large curve:

Team AdjEM  1-25  26-50 51-100101-20200+  R/N   Conf
A    +21.97 1-4   2-0   6-0   14-0  4-0   13-3  +9.90
B    +20.94 4-0   7-3   5-4   2-0   3-1   10-5  +14.75
C    +22.48 2-2   3-0   5-2   8-0   9-0   9-4   +6.11
D    +19.89 1-2   3-3   8-3   6-0   4-0   11-4  +14.75
E    +16.34 0-1   2-2   8-0   5-3   8-0   9-5   +4.30
F    +24.29 5-4   7-3   4-0   5-1   4-0   10-7  +17.28
G    +23.05 4-2   9-2   1-2   6-1   5-0   7-7   +17.28
H    +21.82 5-6   6-2   3-2   1-0   6-0   9-7   +19.32
I    +15.47 2-2   5-1   7-3   5-1   4-0   11-2  +13.81
J    +21.40 3-2   4-6   4-3   5-0   5-0   6-8   +13.81
K    +16.59 2-3   5-3   6-2   6-0   4-0   6-5   +13.81
L    +21.11 3-7   6-0   4-1   5-0   6-0   8-6   +17.28
M    +22.11 2-8   6-2   5-1   2-0   4-0   9-7   +19.32
N    +23.97 2-2   2-0   11-2  7-0   5-0   11-4  +9.90
O    +25.02 1-2   3-0   6-2   9-0   7-0   9-4   +6.11
P    +17.94 2-2   1-3   12-4  2-0   4-0   7-6   +12.33
Q    +24.66 0-3   1-0   4-1   9-0   14-0  13-2  +1.25
R    +26.41 0-2   2-2   4-0   12-0  11-0  14-3  +2.08
S    +21.57 1-3   7-3   6-2   4-0   5-0   8-6   +13.81

[bukie]

So what to do today...

 

- Figure out the next 12 teams via the blind poll

- Figure out the bottom of the bracket auto bids

- Figure out which 7-15 teams still on the board should be in the tournament (pending outcomes of ACC, American, A10, Big 12, Big East, B1G, Pac12 and SEC tournaments)

[bukie]

Dayton and Purdue both lost in their conference quarters, which is a bigger deal for the A10 since they were the only current lock we had.

[UMFan83]

Dayton and Purdue both lost in their conference quarters, which is a bigger deal for the A10 since they were the only current lock we had.

 

Probably hurts the Big Ten's chances of getting a top 4 seeded team doesn't it?

[UMFan83]

Here's the nitty gritty for the single bid leagues (best profile inserted when auto bid isn't set yet):

Team AdjEM  1-25   26-50  51-100 101-200200+   R/N    Conf
AA   +6.45  0-1    0-1    0-0    15-2   9-3    12-5   -0.45
BB   +8.71  0-0    1-2    1-1    3-4    21-1   11-6   -5.30
CC   +11.55 0-0    0-1    0-2    13-4   11-0   14-5   -0.21
DD   +5.21  0-2    0-1    2-0    3-3    18-1   10-4   -6.46
EE   +3.96  0-1    0-0    1-3    8-3    12-5   14-8   -3.41
FF   +0.61  0-0    0-2    1-2    3-4    14-6   15-9   -4.74
GG   +14.01 0-0    1-1    4-0    10-3   12-0   15-2   -3.80
HH   -4.22  0-3    0-2    0-2    1-3    18-5   8-11   -10.65
II   +12.83 0-1    0-0    4-3    12-2   10-0   13-5   +3.09
JJ   +6.32  0-0    0-0    0-1    9-4    14-0   10-4   -4.30
KK   -1.04  0-1    0-1    0-1    1-3    14-5   7-8    -8.37
LL   -0.61  0-0    0-0    0-1    5-4    12-4   9-7    -8.00
MM   +1.30  0-1    0-0    1-2    5-4    16-3   12-8   -3.48
NN   +11.90 0-0    0-1    1-3    6-2    13-0   11-5   -2.90
OO   -1.31  0-1    0-0    0-2    10-10  6-3    7-14   -2.09
PP   -3.12  0-4    0-1    0-1    2-3    19-2   11-11  -17.58
QQ   +2.23  0-2    0-0    0-5    3-1    13-5   8-11   -9.31
RR   +0.13  0-0    0-0    0-1    2-4    18-3   12-6   -17.13
SS   +12.36 0-0    0-1    4-2    13-2   10-0   16-4   +0.52
TT   +10.60 1-0    0-2    1-0    8-5    12-0   11-7   -1.14
UU   +12.36 0-1    0-2    0-1    12-0   14-0   13-4   -6.34
VV   +4.76  0-1    0-1    1-0    6-2    17-2   12-3   -8.63

 

Like I said before...yeesh.

 

II-SS-GG-CC-NN-TT-UU-AA-BB-DD-JJ-VV-EE-MM-FF-QQ-RR-OO-LL-KK-HH-PP

[bukie]

Dayton and Purdue both lost in their conference quarters, which is a bigger deal for the A10 since they were the only current lock we had.

 

Probably hurts the Big Ten's chances of getting a top 4 seeded team doesn't it?

We'll, the conference doesn't get issued a seed, so it's up to how good Purdues profile is. Michigan is shooting up the ratings, so an OT loss isn't really damaging.

[UMFan83]

Here's the next blind poll for seeds 13-24 on the at-large curve:

Team AdjEM  1-25  26-50 51-100101-20200+  R/N   Conf
A    +21.97 1-4   2-0   6-0   14-0  4-0   13-3  +9.90
B    +20.94 4-0   7-3   5-4   2-0   3-1   10-5  +14.75
C    +22.48 2-2   3-0   5-2   8-0   9-0   9-4   +6.11
D    +19.89 1-2   3-3   8-3   6-0   4-0   11-4  +14.75
E    +16.34 0-1   2-2   8-0   5-3   8-0   9-5   +4.30
F    +24.29 5-4   7-3   4-0   5-1   4-0   10-7  +17.28
G    +23.05 4-2   9-2   1-2   6-1   5-0   7-7   +17.28
H    +21.82 5-6   6-2   3-2   1-0   6-0   9-7   +19.32
I    +15.47 2-2   5-1   7-3   5-1   4-0   11-2  +13.81
J    +21.40 3-2   4-6   4-3   5-0   5-0   6-8   +13.81
K    +16.59 2-3   5-3   6-2   6-0   4-0   6-5   +13.81
L    +21.11 3-7   6-0   4-1   5-0   6-0   8-6   +17.28
M    +22.11 2-8   6-2   5-1   2-0   4-0   9-7   +19.32
N    +23.97 2-2   2-0   11-2  7-0   5-0   11-4  +9.90
O    +25.02 1-2   3-0   6-2   9-0   7-0   9-4   +6.11
P    +17.94 2-2   1-3   12-4  2-0   4-0   7-6   +12.33
Q    +24.66 0-3   1-0   4-1   9-0   14-0  13-2  +1.25
R    +26.41 0-2   2-2   4-0   12-0  11-0  14-3  +2.08
S    +21.57 1-3   7-3   6-2   4-0   5-0   8-6   +13.81

 

F-G-R-N-Q-B-A-H-C-M-L-S-J-D-I-E-P-K