2017 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[bukie]

We'll do this again, but we'll do things slightly differently to keep it more active and less "spend 4 hours compiling lists every night".

 

If you want to participate, post in the thread. Let's start by posting all the teams we think deserve consideration for an at-large bid. I'll start by posting the current top 70 RPI/KP/Sagarin teams, which should provide a good basis. By Monday, we'll have a big list of teams that we'll take for the next step.

[bukie]

Current Top 70 RPI:

RPI Team            Conference
------------------------------
1   Villanova       Big East
2   Kansas          Big 12
3   Louisville      Atlantic Coast
4   Oregon          Pac-12
5   Florida         Southeastern
6   Baylor          Big 12
7   North Carolina  Atlantic Coast
8   Kentucky        Southeastern
9   Arizona         Pac-12
10  Butler          Big East
11  Gonzaga         West Coast
12  Florida St.     Atlantic Coast
13  Duke            Atlantic Coast
14  UCLA            Pac-12
15  Cincinnati      AAC
16  Virginia        Atlantic Coast
17  Minnesota       Big Ten
18  St. Mary's (CA) West Coast
19  SMU             AAC
20  Purdue          Big Ten
21  Dayton          Atlantic 10
22  Notre Dame      Atlantic Coast
23  VCU             Atlantic 10
24  Creighton       Big East
25  West Virginia   Big 12
26  Xavier          Big East
27  Maryland        Big Ten
28  South Carolina  Southeastern
29  Oklahoma St.    Big 12
30  Iowa St.        Big 12
31  Middle Tenn.    Conference USA
32  Arkansas        Southeastern
33  Wisconsin       Big Ten
34  Illinois St.    Missouri Valley
35  Virginia Tech   Atlantic Coast
36  UT Arlington    Sun Belt
37  Miami (FL)      Atlantic Coast
38  UNCW            Colonial
39  USC             Pac-12
40  Wichita St.     Missouri Valley
41  Michigan St.    Big Ten
42  Monmouth        Metro Atlantic
43  Nevada          Mountain West
44  Rhode Island    Atlantic 10
45  Vermont         America East
46  Wake Forest     Atlantic Coast
47  Michigan        Big Ten
48  Vanderbilt      Southeastern
49  Seton Hall      Big East
50  Northwestern    Big Ten
51  California      Pac-12
52  Houston         AAC
53  Princeton       Ivy League
54  Georgia         Southeastern
55  Providence      Big East
56  Illinois        Big Ten
57  Belmont         OVC
58  TCU             Big 12
59  UNC Asheville   Big South
60  Clemson         Atlantic Coast
61  New Mexico St.  Western Athletic
62  Ohio St.        Big Ten
63  Valparaiso      Horizon
64  Charleston      Colonial
65  Akron           Mid-American
66  Boise St.       Mountain West
67  Tennessee       Southeastern
67  Kansas St.      Big 12
69  BYU             West Coast
70  ETSU            Southern

[bukie]

Current top 70 KenPom:

RankTeam            Conf
------------------------
1  Gonzaga          WCC
2  Villanova        BE
3  North Carolina   ACC
4  West Virginia    B12
5  Florida          SEC
6  Virginia         ACC
7  Kentucky         SEC
8  Louisville       ACC
9  Kansas           B12
10 Wichita St.      MVC
11 Baylor           B12
12 Purdue           B10
13 UCLA             P12
14 Saint Mary's     WCC
15 Duke             ACC
16 SMU             Amer
17 Oregon           P12
18 Florida St.      ACC
19 Oklahoma St.     B12
20 Butler           BE
21 Wisconsin        B10
22 Arizona          P12
23 Iowa St.         B12
24 Cincinnati      Amer
25 Creighton        BE
26 Notre Dame       ACC
27 Michigan         B10
28 South Carolina   SEC
29 Miami FL         ACC
30 Marquette        BE
31 Wake Forest      ACC
32 Dayton           A10
33 Minnesota        B10
34 Texas Tech       B12
35 Kansas St.       B12
36 Northwestern     B10
37 Clemson          ACC
38 Maryland         B10
39 Houston         Amer
40 Vanderbilt       SEC
41 Virginia Tech    ACC
42 Arkansas         SEC
43 TCU              B12
44 Illinois St.     MVC
45 VCU              A10
46 California       P12
47 Middle Tennessee CUSA
48 Xavier           BE
49 Rhode Island     A10
50 Indiana          B10
51 Michigan St.     B10
52 Syracuse         ACC
53 Georgia          SEC
54 Utah             P12
55 Providence       BE
56 Texas A&M        SEC
57 Seton Hall       BE
58 Tennessee        SEC
59 UNC Wilmington   CAA
60 Nevada           MWC
61 Georgetown       BE
62 Princeton        Ivy
63 Alabama          SEC
64 Oklahoma         B12
65 Illinois         B10
66 Ohio St.         B10
67 Vermont          AE
68 E Tennessee St   SC
69 USC              P12
70 BYU              WCC

[bukie]

Current top 70 Sagarin:

 Rank Team                   
  1  Gonzaga                
  2  West Virginia          
  3  North Carolina         
  4  Villanova              
  5  Kentucky               
  6  Louisville             
  7  Kansas                 
  8  Florida                
  9  Virginia               
 10  Duke                   
 11  Purdue                 
 12  UCLA                   
 13  Wichita State          
 14  Baylor                 
 15  Oregon                 
 16  Wisconsin              
 17  Florida State          
 18  Iowa State             
 19  Arizona                
 20  Cincinnati             
 21  Oklahoma State         
 22  Butler                 
 23  SMU                    
 24  Creighton              
 25  Notre Dame             
 26  Saint Mary's-Cal.      
 27  Michigan               
 28  Miami-Florida          
 29  South Carolina         
 30  Minnesota              
 31  Xavier-Ohio            
 32  Indiana                
 33  Marquette              
 34  Dayton                 
 35  Texas Tech             
 36  Michigan State         
 37  Maryland               
 38  Northwestern           
 39  Wake Forest            
 40  Syracuse               
 41  Clemson                
 42  Arkansas               
 43  California             
 44  Kansas State           
 45  Virginia Tech          
 46  TCU                    
 47  Houston                
 48  VCU(Va. Commonwealth)  
 49  Utah                   
 50  Vanderbilt             
 51  Georgia                
 52  Seton Hall             
 53  Illinois State         
 54  Rhode Island           
 55  Georgetown             
 56  Ohio State             
 57  Providence             
 58  Oklahoma               
 59  Texas A&M              
 60  Southern California    
 61  Tennessee              
 62  Middle Tennessee       
 63  Nevada                 
 64  Texas                  
 65  Illinois               
 66  Alabama                
 67  BYU                    
 68  Iowa                   
 69  Pittsburgh             
 70  NC Wilmington          

[bukie]

So, based on all those teams, here's the current at-large consideration field (83):

 

ACC: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami FL, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

American: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU

America East: Vermont

A-10: Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU

Big East: Butler, Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big South: UNC Asheville

Colonial: Charleston, UNC Wilmington

CUSA: Middle Tennessee

Horizon: Valparaiso

Ivy: Princeton

MAC: Akron

MAAC: Monmouth

MVC: Illinois State, Wichita State

MWC: Boise State, Nevada

OVC: Belmont

Pac-12: Arizona, California, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Utah

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Southern: East Tennessee State

Sun Belt: UT-Arlington

WAC: New Mexico State

WCC: BYU, Gonzaga, St. Mary's

 

I feel like that's a pretty exhaustive list that includes everyone even remotely worth considering. If for some reason a team is missing that you think should be considered, just post about it.

 

Given this, these are the guaranteed one-bid conferences (9): Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, MEAC, NEC, Patriot, Southland, Summit, SWAC

Edited March 2, 2017 by bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not a strong supporter, but I'd include GA Tech in the initial list.

 

Princeton should wrap up the Ivy bid this weekend as well, needing only to win 1 of 2 home games, with one of them against an awful Dartmouth team.

[davell]

Yeah, GT is one of the first 4 out(or was as of a day or two ago) with Lunardi.

[bukie]

Georgia Tech is now in consideration. They are also the Iowa of the ACC, their entire tournament resume basically 3 home wins against teams that had to have fallen asleep against them.

[bukie]

UNC-Asheville is one second from taking a bad loss in the Big South quarters, mostly due to a 51 point performance from Campbell's Chris Clemons.

 

Already they had an uphill battle for at-large consideration due to their weak conference slate, their raw RPI numbers are going to take a hit after this.

[SouthSideRyan]

RPI Wizard has it knocking them down 75 with the loss. Best win was vs. Winthrop, losses to truly awful Radford and Campbell teams.

[bukie]

Princeton should wrap up the Ivy bid this weekend as well, needing only to win 1 of 2 home games, with one of them against an awful Dartmouth team.

Ivy has a 4 teams tournament this year.

[bukie]

Yeah, GT is one of the first 4 out(or was as of a day or two ago) with Lunardi.

This is one of the problems with doing a bracketology from the start of the season. One team has a good week and they hang around the bracket way past a reasonable time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Princeton should wrap up the Ivy bid this weekend as well, needing only to win 1 of 2 home games, with one of them against an awful Dartmouth team.

Ivy has a 4 teams tournament this year.

 

Whoops

[bukie]

Illinois State avoids a bad loss against Evansville, advanced to the MVC semis.

[bukie]

Busy day yesterday in college basketball:

 

- Illinois took a bad loss to Rutgers

- Valpo took a bad loss to Milwaukee in the Horizon quarters

- Jacksonville State won the OVC bid (and beat Belmont on the way)

- Illinois State and Wichita State are in the MVC finals

- Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU all made the WCC semis

[bukie]

So, then, to kick off the next discussion, here's my initial pass for the protected seeds:

 

1. Gonzaga

2. Villanova

3. Kansas

4. North Carolina

5. Kentucky

6. Louisville

7. UCLA

8. West Virginia

9. Florida

10. Oregon

11. Baylor

12. Duke

13. Virginia

14. Purdue

15. Florida State

16. Arizona

[UMFan83]

I'll try to contribute to this today.

 

Edit: or maybe tomorrow #-o

Edited March 6, 2017 by UMFan83

[bukie]

Also, teams I think could be eliminated from the consideration list:

 

- Under .500 teams: Texas, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Pittsburgh

- UNC Asheville, Valpo: Just not enough there to offset the bad losses, couldn't get eliminated in the quarters

- Vermont, UT Arlington: There's just no path to an at-large bid in the AEast or Sun Belt, since not getting the auto bid means they take a bad loss, and that's the only thing propping up their profile right now.

- Belmont: Can't lose in the OVC semis. Quality team, not good enough profile to get an at-large bid

- New Mexico State: The WAC is awful, awful, awful. If you can't win that, you can't get an at-large bid.

- Clemson: Yes, they have good wins and a decent net efficiency margin, but they went 6-12 in the ACC. Not enough wins in conference.

- Georgia Tech: They had a good week. They are the Jack Morris of candidates. They aren't in the top 70 of ANY metric, and yet they're in a field of 68? Yeah, no.

[bukie]

Winthrop wins the Big South.

[bukie]

Florida Gulf Coast wins the Atlantic Sun.

Wichita State wins the MVC.

[bukie]

Another team that should be eliminated from contention:

- Ohio State - Just didn't do well enough in conference, and no signature wins out of conference.

 

As for teams in consideration, both UNC Wilmington and Charleston made the Colonial final. Monmouth lost in the MAAC semis, which would make any at large consideration tough to justify.

[bukie]

ETSU is in the Southern final against top seed UNC-Greensboro, meaning ETSU has done basically everything they can to earn themselves an at-large bid at this point, so if the resume still isn't good enough, it's not happening.

[UMFan83]

So, then, to kick off the next discussion, here's my initial pass for the protected seeds:

 

1. Gonzaga

2. Villanova

3. Kansas

4. North Carolina

5. Kentucky

6. Louisville

7. UCLA

8. West Virginia

9. Florida

10. Oregon

11. Baylor

12. Duke

13. Virginia

14. Purdue

15. Florida State

16. Arizona

 

Dunno if I'm the only one going contribute other than discussion...if its just 2 data points you can combine them if you want or if you just want to go with yours thats fine, but if you go that route I will try to follow along.

 

My top 16 is a combo of BracketMatrix, Kenpom and eye test

 

1. Villanova

2. Gonzaga

3. North Carolina

4. Kansas

5. Kentucky

6. Baylor

7. Louisville

8. Oregon

9. Florida

10. West Virginia

11. UCLA

12. Florida State

13. Duke

14. SMU

15. Virginia

16. Cincinnati

[bukie]

That's why it's open discussion because the past two years the secret balloting achieved little when I was doing everything myself. I have a plan, though.

[SouthSideRyan]

Also, teams I think could be eliminated from the consideration list:

 

- Under .500 teams: Texas, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Pittsburgh

- UNC Asheville, Valpo: Just not enough there to offset the bad losses, couldn't get eliminated in the quarters

- Vermont, UT Arlington: There's just no path to an at-large bid in the AEast or Sun Belt, since not getting the auto bid means they take a bad loss, and that's the only thing propping up their profile right now.

- Belmont: Can't lose in the OVC semis. Quality team, not good enough profile to get an at-large bid

- New Mexico State: The WAC is awful, awful, awful. If you can't win that, you can't get an at-large bid.

- Clemson: Yes, they have good wins and a decent net efficiency margin, but they went 6-12 in the ACC. Not enough wins in conference.

- Georgia Tech: They had a good week. They are the Jack Morris of candidates. They aren't in the top 70 of ANY metric, and yet they're in a field of 68? Yeah, no.

 

I might keep Clemson around.