Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-9-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa lost 6-0 Box Score

 

Tennessee won 7-0 Box Score

 

Myrtle Beach won 7-4 Box Score

 

South Bend won 4-1 Box Score

 

Eugene won 11-5 Box Score

 

AZL Cubs lost 8-4 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 1 lost 8-0 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2 won 7-1 Box Score

[craig]

Minor-league pitching has been a black hole this summer, very disappointing. None of the "could be ready to blossom" guys really did so. But, I'm encouraged by some recent pitching, guys who have sequenced some good starts:

 

Zastryzny: No runs over last 3 starts.

de la Cruz: 2 runs over last 4 starts, 30K/18 innings, smooth no-problem transition to full-season ball.

Paulino: 6 earned runs over 9 starts, 1 in last two games, smooth transition to full-season ball.

Steele: 1 run over last 2 starts, 13K/1BB/13 IP.

Kellog: 0 runs over last 2 starts.

Morrison: 3 runs over last 8 starts.

Clifton: 0 runs last start, 0 walks over last 2.

 

Kind of fun to see some guys bunching good starts.

[CubsWin]

OTOH Kellogg seems to have stepped it up with contact management in the second half going just off him not giving up as many HRs. He's also improved his control. He continues to eat innings like a boss, stay healthy, provide a reasonable amount of Ks...Not a strong SP prospect yet, but in the right direction and a cut above the vast majority in this system as far as that role.

 

----

 

Happ hit his 4th AA HR. Caratini is 3/4 with a double. Hedges with a solid AA start, underrated as a trade piece in a world where guys like Ascher and Eickhoff were part of landing Cole Hamels.

That's 3 strong in a row for Kellogg. He joins a growing group of pitching prospects finishing strong this season as craig chronicled earlier.

[CubsWin]

OTOH Kellogg seems to have stepped it up with contact management in the second half going just off him not giving up as many HRs. He's also improved his control. He continues to eat innings like a boss, stay healthy, provide a reasonable amount of Ks...Not a strong SP prospect yet, but in the right direction and a cut above the vast majority in this system as far as that role.

 

----

 

Happ hit his 4th AA HR. Caratini is 3/4 with a double. Hedges with a solid AA start, underrated as a trade piece in a world where guys like Ascher and Eickhoff were part of landing Cole Hamels.

That's 3 strong in a row for Kellogg. He joins a growing group of pitching prospects finishing strong this season as craig chronicled earlier.

 

Just glancing at box scores, 3 is selling him short. He's had one kinda crappy start since May 27th, and even that is based on RS and Hs as it was a walkless outing with 4 Ks in 5. 2 HRs in 46.2 IPs during the second half of the season, as opposed to 6 in 67 in the first half - that's nice, as is the sub-2 BB rate and even the solid but unspectacular K rate. Overall the season numbers look more and more solid as he continues to pile up innings. He needs to finish strong and then the next step will be spring boarding from High A to at least some AAA next year or a successful AA run to be in line for ML time at 24.

Not 3 strong period. Just 3 strong in a row. Wasn't selling him short. Was celebrating his recent excellent 3 game stretch.

[craig]

.I'm encouraged by some recent pitching, guys who have sequenced some good starts:

 

Zastryzny: No runs over last 3 starts.

de la Cruz: 2 runs over last 4 starts, 30K/18 innings, smooth no-problem transition to full-season ball.

Paulino: 6 earned runs over 9 starts, 1 in last two games, smooth transition to full-season ball.

Steele: 1 run over last 2 starts, 13K/1BB/13 IP.

Kellog: 0 runs over last 2 starts.

Morrison: 3 runs over last 8 starts.

Clifton: 0 runs last start, 0 walks over last 2.

 

Kind of fun to see some guys bunching good starts.

 

Add Hedges and Moreno. Hedges is having a really nice year, and in his 2nd/3rd starts in AA, he's allowed 1 run combined. For minor league prospects, I look to K's first since that speaks to stuff, and Hedges does not impress. Neither does his velocity.

 

But actual effectiveness is largely a function of K/BB/HR, and Hedges is excellent on the latter two, especially the HR-rate. His ground ball profile is strong, so the low-HR rate may not be flukey luck? (4HR/121 innings this year, 9HR/271 innings career.) One of the problems that no-stuff guys have is that hitters can kill their pitches; but if a guy doesn't allow killed HR's, perhaps that's a hint that maybe his stuff is actually better than we appreciate? I'm kinda hoping that he's one of those deceptive guys; he doesn't throw 94 much because he's got a comfortable 88-91 sinker that works well consistently, so there is little reason to throw 4-seamers? Anyway, it will be interesting to see whether he can actually sustain his success, or if it has any potential for the majors.

 

He's a guy where I'll be interested to see what the scouting reports say about him after the season. Right now, my assumption is that he's a weak-armed college overachiever with little potential. But if we got a scouting report that his sinker is actually now 90-92, that he's added an effective cutter which has helped, and that he never threw a curve in college because in his small conference he didn't need one, but that it is now developing well and projects to perhaps be a solid major-league curve, maybe he'd look much more interesting as a future Lackey-replacement candidate?