Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-1-16

[CubsWin]

looks like bad carls jr. showed up tonight.

I'll assume that Tom posted about Concepcion's walk before Edwards came into the game. Or he just didn't want to talk about his boy walking three and giving up a couple runs.

 

Yeah, I made the post at the beginning of the 9th and forgot to go check. It's pretty safe to still say that Edwards is a better prospect than Concepcion anyway.

Yeah, don't think anyone was or is contesting that. But I would say, at this point in time, there's a case to be made that if Felix Pena were on the 40-man he'd be ahead of Carl for the next call up.

 

The walks are thing. 2014 - 4.2 per 9 in 53.2 IP. 2015 - 6.7 per 9 in 55.1 IP. 2016 - 5.3 per 9 in 20.1 IP. It's not a blip or a flash in the pan. That's over his most recent 129.1 IP.

 

I still think he'll be a very good major league contributor and is very difficult to hit, but he's got to get those walks down to be count-on-able at the next level, especially on a championship-caliber team.

[ScrubMD]

Yesterday's game put Contreras's OPS at 1.001 for the season.

[craig]

Zagunis is overdue for a big slump. I think it was around this time in the season last year that he was up over .900OPS and was at or near the top of all the Carolina League stats, and then he settled way back into the low .800's.

 

But for now:

BA: 9th

OBP: 3rd

OPS: 8th

Slugging: 12th

 

Pretty fun production, in a pretty big league. At 23 he's not exactly young or very projectable, but he's not old. Every step up the ladder where a guy can hold serve.... not that many steps left.

[KingCubsFan]

Zagunis is overdue for a big slump. I think it was around this time in the season last year that he was up over .900OPS and was at or near the top of all the Carolina League stats, and then he settled way back into the low .800's.

 

But for now:

BA: 9th

OBP: 3rd

OPS: 8th

Slugging: 12th

 

Pretty fun production, in a pretty big league. At 23 he's not exactly young or very projectable, but he's not old. Every step up the ladder where a guy can hold serve.... not that many steps left.

He has the chance to be a pretty solid fourth outfielder, especially if he can play CF.

[CubsWin]

 

Yeah, I made the post at the beginning of the 9th and forgot to go check. It's pretty safe to still say that Edwards is a better prospect than Concepcion anyway.

Yeah, don't think anyone was or is contesting that. But I would say, at this point in time, there's a case to be made that if Felix Pena were on the 40-man he'd be ahead of Carl for the next call up.

 

The walks are thing. 2014 - 4.2 per 9 in 53.2 IP. 2015 - 6.7 per 9 in 55.1 IP. 2016 - 5.3 per 9 in 20.1 IP. It's not a blip or a flash in the pan. That's over his most recent 129.1 IP.

 

I still think he'll be a very good major league contributor and is very difficult to hit, but he's got to get those walks down to be count-on-able at the next level, especially on a championship-caliber team.

 

I cannot repeat myself enough about this but when your don't allow hits, home runs, and you strike out 1 out of every 3 hitters stepping up to the plate in the minors, walks are less of a thing than imagined. Sure, occaisonally there is an outing like last night, but that is true of literally any pitcher regardless. These kind of outings aren't worth reacting to unless they become normal or the guy pops up injured the next day, otherwise chalk it up to [expletive] happening once in a while.

 

I mean there's even an angle here where you're mentioning 129 innings spread over a bunch of seasons (where, overall, he was still performing to an awesome level). He's had a 116 inning season where he walked 3.2 per 9 taking starter innings! I just don't and won't share the concern unless his shoulder or elbow blows up or until he is crapping the bed in the majors.

 

Until then it is the pitcher version of Bryant K'ing 30% of the time while still being an all around great hitter and hitting prospect when he was doing it in the minors. Doing everything else not just right, but in a dominant fashion, overwhelms the one hole and even suggests long term optimism - there's plenty of opportunity to correct a flaw when it's your only flaw (and you remain healthy enough to physically make changes).

 

Pena is not uninteresting. Not the arm in this system I would hang my hat on obviously, but sure maybe between he and Patton there might be a competent MR.

These kind of outings aren't worth reacting to unless they become normal or the guy pops up injured the next day, otherwise chalk it up to [expletive] happening once in a while.

 

But if the pitcher is walking 4.2 per 9, 6.7 per 9 and 5.3 per 9 over his last 3 seasons, then it's not isolated outings that can just be ignored as horsefeathers that happens once in a while. It's little more than once in a while.

 

Sure, occaisonally there is an outing like last night, but that is true of literally any pitcher regardless.

 

If that were true, every pitcher would be walking 5 guys per 9 innings. That would be considered average. It's not.

 

I cannot repeat myself enough about this but when your don't allow hits, home runs, and you strike out 1 out of every 3 hitters stepping up to the plate in the minors, walks are less of a thing than imagined.

 

I agree with you here to an extent (which is why I said in my OP that he's certainly difficult to hit and will likely be a good contributor at the next level someday), but if the walks weren't a thing for the Cubs, something he needs to improve upon before being effective at the next level, then why haven't they called him up already?

 

Given your love of repeating yourself :P , I'm not looking to change your mind. I'm just stating that I don't think he can contribute in a way the Cubs need him to until he becomes more consistent and gets the walks down below 4 per 9 without losing his effectiveness overall. Feel free to disagree.

[CubsWin]

But if the pitcher is walking 4.2 per 9, 6.7 per 9 and 5.3 per 9 over his last 3 seasons, then it's not isolated outings that can just be ignored as [expletive] that happens once in a while. It's little more than once in a while.

 

If that were true, every pitcher would be walking 5 guys per 9 innings. That would be considered average. It's not.

 

I agree with you here to an extent (which is why I said in my OP that he's certainly difficult to hit and will likely be a good contributor at the next level someday), but if the walks weren't a thing for the Cubs, something he needs to improve upon before being effective at the next level, then why haven't they called him up already?

 

Given your love of repeating yourself :P , I'm not looking to change your mind. I'm just stating that I don't think he can contribute in a way the Cubs need him to until he becomes more consistent and gets the walks down below 4 per 9 without losing his effectiveness overall. Feel free to disagree.

 

- It's safe to say that last night was not a typical Edwards outing over the past 3 seasons, despite the walks, just by looking at literally anything else. So yes they are isolated outings that don't demand a dramatic reaction.

 

- No, that does not make any sense. I can't even see how you get to that conclusion. All pitchers have bad outings once in a while.

 

- They've called him up twice already without meeting your completely arbitrary BB/9 standards. It's not as if sub-4 BB/9 suddenly means he has great control. Except for Warren the bullpen is composed of guys who all were on the team last year, so the logical answer would be that there has been no need to call him up yet on a permanent basis. The org clearly likes him - demonstrated by multiple callups, including an unnecessary one in April, and being the one minor leaguer traveling with the club during the playoff run last year.

 

- For someone not trying to change my mind you've spent a significant amount of time trying to change my mind. Isn't this the second time we've had this same convo just this season?

Okay. Never mind.