Talk Arrieta here

[UMFan83]

I had a dream last night that the Cardinals signed Jake and then he started retweeting or responding positively to every Trump tweet. Ok it was a nightmare.

 

But in all seriousness, who would Jake's suitors be? There's only a handful of teams that can probably pay him what he's asking. The Red Sox have invested a lot in pitching in recent years so I think they are out. The Yankees are a legit possibility. The Dodgers have seventy bajillion pitchers and a payroll higher than many counties GDP but they are never out. I'm guessing if the Cardinals were big spenders this offseason it would be for hitting but never dismiss them making a reckless FA signing out of spite. Actually, to be honest this totally seems like the type of move the Angels would come out of nowhere to make.

Rangers

 

 

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Yeah thought about the Rangers. Would definitely make sense. Texas boy, team that needs pitching and has made questionable FA investments in the past.

 

I just really hope he goes to the AL. I really don't want to have to see Jake every year/have Jake stand in our way of advancing in the playoffs.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

Wouldn't the Astros make a ton of sense? Low payroll, tons of cost controlled position players.

 

Perhaps the Rangers as well given their FA aggressiveness and if they miss out on Darvish.

[UMFan83]

Wouldn't the Astros make a ton of sense? Low payroll, tons of cost controlled position players.

 

Perhaps the Rangers as well given their FA aggressiveness and if they miss out on Darvish.

 

Do they have the ability to have a gigantic payroll? I know in recent years its been super low while they rebuilt (similar to the Cubs), but if they can only really afford a middle of the road payroll, do they want to make their big FA investment a 7-8 year deal for a 31 year old SP? I guess they might not have a choice if they don't win the WS this year and need pitching in a weak FA pitching market.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I've been trying to figure out Jake all year now, and I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I've wanted to show that he regained his command, but I just couldn't show it. He throws pitches all over the zone and he's thrown specific pitches in the same spots before and after the start of July. He wasn't missing over the heart of the plate any more early on, either. It was beginning to look to me like he was just really unlucky early on and lucky lately. But I've finally figured it out! And it's definitely that he's regained command. Article incoming. I still need to do some more research first, though.

[UMFan83]

I've been trying to figure out Jake all year now, and I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I've wanted to show that he regained his command, but I just couldn't show it. He throws pitches all over the zone and he's thrown specific pitches in the same spots before and after the start of July. He wasn't missing over the heart of the plate any more early on, either. It was beginning to look to me like he was just really unlucky early on and lucky lately. But I've finally figured it out! And it's definitely that he's regained command. Article incoming. I still need to do some more research first, though.

 

Cool, I'm looking forward to reading it after you post it in November (if you know whats good for you)

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I've been trying to figure out Jake all year now, and I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I've wanted to show that he regained his command, but I just couldn't show it. He throws pitches all over the zone and he's thrown specific pitches in the same spots before and after the start of July. He wasn't missing over the heart of the plate any more early on, either. It was beginning to look to me like he was just really unlucky early on and lucky lately. But I've finally figured it out! And it's definitely that he's regained command. Article incoming. I still need to do some more research first, though.

 

Cool, I'm looking forward to reading it after you post it in November (if you know whats good for you)

 

Fuuuuuuuu

 

I wasn't thinking.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

horsefeathers it, I'm going to post it. Unless you pay me...

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/1m.gif

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm glad you reminded me, UMFan, because I was studying this stuff so intensely I forgot about the plague I carry. Now I'm debating if I should just close every tab and forget everything.

[Cubswin11]

I've been trying to figure out Jake all year now, and I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I've wanted to show that he regained his command, but I just couldn't show it. He throws pitches all over the zone and he's thrown specific pitches in the same spots before and after the start of July. He wasn't missing over the heart of the plate any more early on, either. It was beginning to look to me like he was just really unlucky early on and lucky lately. But I've finally figured it out! And it's definitely that he's regained command. Article incoming. I still need to do some more research first, though.

http://reactiongifs.me/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/talking-about-plans-infront-somoene-not-invited.gif

[UMFan83]

horsefeathers it, I'm going to post it. Unless you pay me...

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/1m.gif

 

[champaignchris]

Rank the free agent starters:

 

1. Arrieta

2. Darvish

3. Tanaka

4. Lynn

5. Cobb

6. Cashner

7. Vargas

8. Chatwood

9. Tillman

10. Estrada

 

I'm probably undervaluing Vargas' good year, but he's going to be 35 next year.

 

Anyway, when you combine health, age and recent performance, Jake is pretty much head and shoulders above the rest of the class.

[UMFan83]

Point made from Dave Cameron

 

Dann: Has Arrieta pitched himself back into the massive term & payday he wants this offseason? Definitely looks like the cream of the SP FA crop, and has no injury concerns (beyond the inherent risk of being a pitcher). His July/August looks pretty great.

 

Dave Cameron: xFIP over 4.00 each of last three months. Don’t think he’s going to get what he wants.

[Cubswin11]

Rank the free agent starters:

 

1. Arrieta

2. Darvish

3. Tanaka

4. Lynn

5. Cobb

6. Cashner

7. Vargas

8. Chatwood

9. Tillman

10. Estrada

 

I'm probably undervaluing Vargas' good year, but he's going to be 35 next year.

 

Anyway, when you combine health, age and recent performance, Jake is pretty much head and shoulders above the rest of the class.

1. Darvish 2. Arrieta 3. Tanaka 4. Nobody else unless Otani is available then he's 1 and everyone else gets knocked down 1.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I hope we ride him like a rented mule in the postseason and then wish him well with his new team.

I hope that he ride him like a rented mule, that he plays poorly for the rest of his career, and when Ellen Degeneres is elected President in 2020, I'll wish Arrieta well when he moves to the Philippines or whichever country best aligns with his political views.

[David]

Point made from Dave Cameron

 

Dann: Has Arrieta pitched himself back into the massive term & payday he wants this offseason? Definitely looks like the cream of the SP FA crop, and has no injury concerns (beyond the inherent risk of being a pitcher). His July/August looks pretty great.

 

Dave Cameron: xFIP over 4.00 each of last three months. Don’t think he’s going to get what he wants.

 

I had certainly noticed that about his peripherals myself, but in terms of what he gets paid, I doubt the entirety of the market is going to behave in accordance with xFIP.

[We Got The Whole 9]

His HR/FB% might seem out of whack, xFIP, but that's vintage Jake, so suck it

[Sammy Sofa]

Vintage Jake's xFIP was MUCH lower.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Vintage Jake's xFIP was MUCH lower.

Yeah that's not what I said though. Maybe I'm not reading the situation correctly but isn't xFIP basically saying, wait a minute, his HRs should be higher given all the flyballs he's allowed? I'm basically saying his HR/FB% is getting back into vintage Jake range (7% in 2nd half and 2% in August) so that's not some random fluke or anomaly. His HR suppression was one of his signatures during his peak.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Vintage Jake's xFIP was MUCH lower.

Yeah that's not what I said though. Maybe I'm not reading the situation correctly but isn't xFIP basically saying, wait a minute, his HRs should be higher given all the flyballs he's allowed? I'm basically saying his HR/FB% is getting back into vintage Jake range (7% in 2nd half and 2% in August) so that's not some random fluke or anomaly. His HR suppression was one of his signatures during his peak.

 

Yeah, xFIP is a pretty bad stat. And it is even worse in this era, when the ball is flying out of the park, since the ability to suppress home runs is even more important.

 

Just because a stat is better than ERA, on the whole, doesn't mean it's actually a good stat. And we have a ton of data showing that certain pitchers are able to limit exit velocity, and that limiting exit velocity limits home runs. So for Dave Cameron to randomly throw that and only that out when he horsefeathering writes at Fangraphs is pretty dumb.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Vintage Jake's xFIP was MUCH lower.

Yeah that's not what I said though. Maybe I'm not reading the situation correctly but isn't xFIP basically saying, wait a minute, his HRs should be higher given all the flyballs he's allowed? I'm basically saying his HR/FB% is getting back into vintage Jake range (7% in 2nd half and 2% in August) so that's not some random fluke or anomaly. His HR suppression was one of his signatures during his peak.

 

Yeah, xFIP is a pretty bad stat. And it is even worse in this era, when the ball is flying out of the park, since the ability to suppress home runs is even more important.

 

Just because a stat is better than ERA, on the whole, doesn't mean it's actually a good stat. And we have a ton of data showing that certain pitchers are able to limit exit velocity, and that limiting exit velocity limits home runs. So for Dave Cameron to randomly throw that and only that out when he horsefeathering writes at Fangraphs is pretty dumb.

 

How did he actually do with xwoba this month? Interesting to note that by strictly batted ball data for this season he induced his lowest amount of soft contact this month, but line drives (nebulous stat) were way down, and he did not allow hitters to pull him much.

 

I was surprised to see his GB% hasn't increased much in the 2nd half.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yeah that's not what I said though. Maybe I'm not reading the situation correctly but isn't xFIP basically saying, wait a minute, his HRs should be higher given all the flyballs he's allowed? I'm basically saying his HR/FB% is getting back into vintage Jake range (7% in 2nd half and 2% in August) so that's not some random fluke or anomaly. His HR suppression was one of his signatures during his peak.

 

Yeah, xFIP is a pretty bad stat. And it is even worse in this era, when the ball is flying out of the park, since the ability to suppress home runs is even more important.

 

Just because a stat is better than ERA, on the whole, doesn't mean it's actually a good stat. And we have a ton of data showing that certain pitchers are able to limit exit velocity, and that limiting exit velocity limits home runs. So for Dave Cameron to randomly throw that and only that out when he horsefeathering writes at Fangraphs is pretty dumb.

 

How did he actually do with xwoba this month? Interesting to note that by strictly batted ball data for this season he induced his lowest amount of soft contact this month, but line drives (nebulous stat) were way down, and he did not allow hitters to pull him much.

 

I was surprised to see his GB% hasn't increased much in the 2nd half.

 

Before July, xwOBA of .308. Actual wOBA of .335.

 

Since July, xwOBA of .273. Actual wOBA of .254.

 

There was definitely some bad luck early on and some good luck lately. But, he's also done a lot better job of managing contact. Just a tale of two diametrically opposed halves all around.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Duke Silver

[We Got The Whole 9]

Oh I am going to drop that on Dave in his next chat

 

I actually asked him in a chat a couple weeks ago if Cubs fans should care that KB hits like a relief pitcher in HLS and he never replied to the question. Seems like he definitely read it and took it to heart. I gotta call him out for that.

[Post Count Padder]

Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake each got $80 million. Arrieta is easily getting $100. Probably 150 from a team with cash that's desperate for pitching (Rangers, Giants, Yankees, heck even the Astros).

[NonProfitCow]

Rank the free agent starters:

 

1. Arrieta

2. Darvish

3. Tanaka

4. Lynn

5. Cobb

6. Cashner

7. Vargas

8. Chatwood

9. Tillman

10. Estrada

 

I'm probably undervaluing Vargas' good year, but he's going to be 35 next year.

 

Anyway, when you combine health, age and recent performance, Jake is pretty much head and shoulders above the rest of the class.

Not understanding the Tanaka love, especially given the questionable elbow.

[Cubswin11]

Rank the free agent starters:

 

1. Arrieta

2. Darvish

3. Tanaka

4. Lynn

5. Cobb

6. Cashner

7. Vargas

8. Chatwood

9. Tillman

10. Estrada

 

I'm probably undervaluing Vargas' good year, but he's going to be 35 next year.

 

Anyway, when you combine health, age and recent performance, Jake is pretty much head and shoulders above the rest of the class.

Not understanding the Tanaka love, especially given the questionable elbow.

I'm leery of the elbow personally, but he's the youngest of the TOR options (Otani not included) and if we sign him to a big deal I trust the FO did their due diligence to feel the elbow thing isn't an issue/is treatable (maybe it's like the Lester bone spur) and there's no extra risk outside of the inherent risk of being a pitcher.