NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

[bukie]

Still about 45 minutes to submit to be on the committee.

[bukie]

Gonzaga and South Dakota State won auto bids.

[UMFan83]

Dammit Gonzaga

 

I'm not sure why I'm following bid stealers anymore

[bukie]

Teams that are in automatically:

 

1. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley

2. Yale - Ivy

3. UNC Asheville - Big South

4. Florida-Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun

5. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley

6. UNC Wilmington - Colonial

7. Chattanooga - Southern

8. Iona - Metro Atlantic

9. Green Bay - Horizon

10. Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast

11. South Dakota State - Summit

12. Gonzaga - West Coast

13. Patriot (Lehigh)

14. America East (Stony Brook)

15. Mid American (Akron)

16. ACC (UNC)

17. Big East (Villanova)

18. Big 12 (Kansas)

19. Big Sky (Weber State)

20. Big West (Hawaii)

21. Conference USA (UAB)

22. Mid-Eastern (Hampton)

23. Mountain West (San Diego State)

24. Pac-12 (Oregon)

25. Southland (SF Austin)

26. SWAC (Texas Southern)

27. WAC (New Mexico State)

28. Sun Belt (Arkansas-LR)

29. SEC (Texas A&M)

30. Big Ten (Indiana)

31. American (Temple)

32. Atlantic 10 (Dayton)

 

 

Teams that are currently in at-large (35):

 

Arizona

Baylor

Butler

California

Cincinnati

Colorado

Connecticut

Duke

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State

Kansas

Kentucky

Maryland

Miami

Michigan State

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pitt

Purdue

Seton Hall

St. Mary's

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Utah

Vandy

Villanova

Virginia

West Virginia

Wichita State

Wisconsin

Xavier

 

 

Other teams in consideration for 1-7 spots:

 

Akron

Arkansas-LR

BYU

Clemson

Creighton

Dayton

Florida

Florida State

George Washington

Georgia Tech

Houston

Marquette

Michigan

Mississippi

Monmouth

Ohio State

Oregon State

Providence

SF Austin

San Diego State

South Carolina

St. Bonaventure

St. Joseph's

Syracuse

Temple

Tulsa

USC

VCU

Valparaiso

Virginia Tech

 

 

Next step:

 

1. Rank the following 12 teams (if you are a rep of the team, don't include them so rank 11):

 

Indiana

Kansas

Miami

Michigan State

North Carolina

Oklahoma

Oregon

Purdue

Villanova

Virginia

Xavier

West Virginia

 

 

2. Rank the next 16 teams from the auto/at-large/consideration pool

3. Rank the bottom 16 teams from the consideration pool

4. Rank the automatic bids (and proxy auto bids, like the Patriot) for teams not currently in at-large consideration, from bottom to top (so worst team first). These are:

 

Austin Peay - Ohio Valley

Yale - Ivy

UNC Asheville - Big South

Florida-Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun

Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley

UNC Wilmington - Colonial

Chattanooga - Southern

Iona - Metro Atlantic

Green Bay - Horizon

Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast

South Dakota State - Summit

Patriot (Lehigh)

America East (Stony Brook)

Big Sky (Weber State)

Big West (Hawaii)

Conference USA (UAB)

Mid-Eastern (Hampton)

SWAC (Texas Southern)

WAC (New Mexico State)

 

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm surprised to see you guys putting Wichita St. as definitely in. Very, very weak resume imo.

 

I'll admit to not having followed them all that closely this year but all 3 of the rankings bukie linked to in the OP, especially kenpom have them amongst the top 25ish teams in the country. Kenpom has them 11th

 

kenpom loves WSU. But their tournament resume is pretty bad. Here are their numbers using both RPI and KENPOM

 

vs RPI Top-

25: 1-0

50: 1-4

75: 1-5

100: 4-7

101-200: 8-1

201-300: 7-0

vs 301+: 4-0

best RPI wins: 8, at 84, at 89

worst RPI losses: at 121, vs 84, at 84

SOS rank: #107

 

vs KenPom Top-

25: 1-1

50: 1-3

75: 1-4

100: 4-7

101-200: 11-1

201-300: 6-0

vs 301+: 2-0

best KenPom wins: 25, at 76, 76

worst KenPom losses: at 115, 90, at 81

SOS Rank: #115

 

 

Only one top 75 win using either metric. Only 4 top 100 wins using either metric.

 

Not sure the MVC is a two bid league, personally. Don't see much that dazzles me on that resume. Looks like they feasted on a ton of cupcakes.

 

That said, I don't follow all of cbb closely enough to really participate in this kind of thing, so maybe that's actually a strong resume this year. I'd assumed a team with barely any legit wins in a weak league that they won't win would be on the outside looking in.

 

If I can find enough time, I'm going to rally to kick them out...That said there probably won't be enough bid stealers for them to not just backdoor their way back in. At that point their competition for me is the A10 mess at the top(which I have a feeling will play its way out) and the B1G and P12 also-rans

[bukie]

Honestly the bubble is such garbage this year that I'd rather see champions of decent leagues make it over middle teams in good leagues.

 

Wichita State, St. Mary's, Dayton, Temple, even Akron would work out fine in the first four.

[bukie]

In the Patriot final, Holy Cross leads Lehigh 25-14 at the half. If the lead holds, I think Holy Cross is a play-in for sure.

[bukie]

And 14-19 Holy Cross completes the improbable Patriot title run.

[bukie]

45 minutes to get me your selections for round 2 for them to count. Otherwise I just pick my own.

[bukie]

Round 2 results:

 

Top 8 on the S-Curve:

1. Kansas

2. Villanova

3. Virginia

4. Michigan State

5. North Carolina

6. Oklahoma

7. West Virginia

8. Xavier

 

Bottom of the S-Curve:

68. Holy Cross

67. Fairleigh Dickinson

66. Mid-Eastern (Hampton)

65. Austin Peay

64. SWAC (Texas Southern)

63. Florida-Gulf Coast

62. Green Bay

61. Big Sky (Weber State)

60. UNC Asheville

59. WAC (New Mexico State)

58. Iona

57. Conference USA (UAB)

56. America East (Stony Brook)

55. Chattanooga

 

Next 16 to vote on:

Arizona

Baylor

California

Duke

Indiana

Iowa

Iowa State

Kentucky

Maryland

Miami FL

Oregon

Purdue

Texas

Texas A&M

Utah

Wichita State

 

Off the board:

SF Austin

Monmouth

Ohio State

Akron

Creighton

BYU

Arkansas-LR

St. Bonaventure

George Washington

Georgia Tech

Tulsa

Oregon State

[Smack]

45 minutes to get me your selections for round 2 for them to count. Otherwise I just pick my own.

 

Sorry was hoping to see someone else post first so I didn't do it wrong. At this point we just need to rank the next 16?

[bukie]

45 minutes to get me your selections for round 2 for them to count. Otherwise I just pick my own.

 

Sorry was hoping to see someone else post first so I didn't do it wrong. At this point we just need to rank the next 16?

3 lists:

1) Rank the next 16 that I posted (the 3-6 seeds)

2) Rank the next 16 from the remaining at-large/auto bid/consideration pool (7-10 seeds)

3) Rank the rest of the consideration pool with the auto bids that aren't placed yet (one list for all)

 

At the end of the day we'll have a full field selected and the top 4 and bottom 4 seeds selected.

[bukie]

Also we can start assigning pods to the top 8 teams we already placed in the S-Curve.

[bukie]

Michigan squeaks by Northwestern in the B1G second round.

Pitt blown out by UNC in the ACC.

[Smack]

3 lists:

1) Rank the next 16 that I posted (the 3-6 seeds)

2) Rank the next 16 from the remaining at-large/auto bid/consideration pool (7-10 seeds)

3) Rank the rest of the consideration pool with the auto bids that aren't placed yet (one list for all)

 

At the end of the day we'll have a full field selected and the top 4 and bottom 4 seeds selected.

 

1)

 

Indiana

Kentucky

Oregon

Miami FL

Iowa St.

Utah

Maryland

Arizona

Duke

Texas A&M

Baylor

California

Texas

Iowa

Wichita St.

 

 

2)

 

Wisconsin

Seton Hall

Gonzaga

Vandy

Cincinnatti

Notre Dame

St. Mary's

Butler

Providence

Dayton

VCU

South Carolina

Texas Tech

Colorado

USC

Connecticut

 

 

3)

 

San Diego St.

Michigan

Florida

Pittsburgh

St. Joseph's

Houston

Florida State

Clemson

Syracuse

Valpo

Yale

Virginia Tech

Mississippi

UNC Wilmington

Hawaii

South Dakota St.

Northern Iowa

Temple

Marquette

Lehigh

 

[bukie]

1) Rank the next 16 that I posted (the 3-6 seeds)

2) Rank the next 16 from the remaining at-large/auto bid/consideration pool (7-10 seeds)

3) Rank the rest of the consideration pool with the auto bids that aren't placed yet (one list for all)

 

1)

Kentucky

Indiana

Arizona

Miami FL

Purdue

Oregon

Iowa State

Maryland

California

Texas A&M

Duke

Utah

Baylor

Iowa

Texas

Wichita State

 

 

2)

Vanderbilt

Gonzaga - West Coast

Seton Hall

Connecticut

Cincinnati

Wisconsin

Saint Mary's

Notre Dame

VCU

Butler

San Diego State (Mountain West)

Yale - Ivy

Syracuse

Florida

Texas Tech

Pitt

 

 

3)

Gonzaga - West Coast

VCU

San Diego State

Yale - Ivy

Syracuse

Florida

Providence

Valparaiso

Southland (SF Austin)

St. Joseph's

USC

Houston

South Carolina

Florida State

Clemson

Michigan

Atlantic 10 (Dayton)

Sun Belt (Arkansas LR)

Virginia Tech

Big West (Hawaii)

Mississippi

UNC Wilmington - Colonial

Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley

South Dakota State - Summit

MAC (Akron)

American (Temple)

Marquette

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by bukie

[bukie]

I'll collate the data a little later this morning and reorganize the remainder of the work.

[bukie]

Current S-Curve (1-16, 51-68):

 

1. Kansas (Big 12)

2. Villanova (Big East)

3. Virginia (ACC)

4. Michigan State (Big Ten)

5. North Carolina

6. Oklahoma

7. West Virginia

8. Xavier

9. Indiana

10. Kentucky (SEC)

11. Miami FL

12. Oregon (Pac 12)

13. Purdue

14. Arizona

15. Iowa St.

16. Maryland

...

49. Sun Belt (Arkansas LR)

50. Big West (Hawaii)

51. UNC Wilmington - Colonial

52. South Dakota State - Summit

53. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley

54. MAC (Akron)

55. Chattanooga - Southern

56. America East (Stony Brook)

57. Conference USA (Old Dominion)

58. Iona - MAAC

59. WAC (New Mexico State)

60. UNC Asheville - Big South

61. Big Sky (Weber State)

62. Green Bay - Horizon

63. Florida-Gulf Coast - A-Sun

64. SWAC (Texas Southern)

65. Austin Peay - OVC

66. Mid-Eastern (Hampton)

67. Fairleigh Dickinson - NEC

68. Holy Cross - Patriot

 

 

Next 16 to vote on (5-8 seeds):

 

Baylor

Butler

California

Cincinnati (American)

Duke

Gonzaga - West Coast

Iowa

Notre Dame

Seton Hall

St. Mary's

Texas A&M

Texas 

Utah

Vandy

Wichita St.

Wisconsin

 

 

Remaining auto bids (4):

 

Mountain West (San Diego State)

Yale - Ivy

Southland (SF Austin)

Atlantic 10 (VCU)

 

 

Rest of the at-large field (12):

 

Colorado

Connecticut

Dayton

Florida

Houston

Pitt

Providence

South Carolina

St. Joseph's

Syracuse

Texas Tech

USC

 

 

Just missed:

Michigan

Valpo

Florida State

Clemson

Virginia Tech

Mississippi

Marquette

Oregon State

Edited March 11, 2016 by bukie

[bukie]

For today:

 

1) Rank the next 16 in the list

2) Rank the last 16 remaining teams

3) Place top 4 teams in pods

4) Discuss in this thread if some team is being grossly overlooked

[bukie]

Also, I missed that UAB lost in the CUSA quarters, so...yeah, that conference is ugly now.

[bukie]

Houston, Tulsa, AND Cincy all lost in the American quarters, so the chances of a bid thief is now high, as the only team left in the field with a chance to win the league is UConn.

 

Davidson could still be a bid thief in the A-10, as they made the semis.

 

Michigan could be a bid thief (or play their way into the field) in the B1G.

 

C-USA title is either Middle Tennessee or Old Dominion.

 

San Diego State is in the finals of the Mountain West tourney, but should they lose, they were on the at-large worth field, so another bid could disappear (theirs?)

 

Georgia or LSU could steal a bid in the SEC, if they can manage to knock off Kentucky and Texas A&M.

 

Texas Southern lost in the SWAC semis, so the winner of that tournament is likely in the play-in games.

[bukie]

Stony Brook wins the America East. Edited March 12, 2016 by bukie

[bukie]

For today:

 

1) Rank the next 16 in the list

 

Texas A&M

Utah

California

Duke

Baylor

Notre Dame

Seton Hall

Gonzaga - West Coast

Texas

Iowa

Wisconsin

Vandy

Cincinnati

St. Mary's

Butler

Wichita St.

 

 

2) Rank the last 16 remaining teams

 

Atlantic 10 (VCU)

Mountain West (San Diego State)

Connecticut (American)

Yale - Ivy

Syracuse

Texas Tech

Florida

Pitt

St. Joseph's

Providence

USC

South Carolina

Southland (SF Austin)

Dayton

Colorado

Houston

 

 

3) Place top 4 teams in pods

1. Kansas (Big 12) - Oklahoma City, OK; Midwest Regional (Chicago)

2. Villanova (Big East) - Brooklyn, NY; East Regional (Philadelphia)

3. Virginia (ACC) - Raleigh, NC; South Regional (Louisville)

4. Michigan State (Big Ten) - St. Louis, MO; West Regional (Anaheim)

5. North Carolina - Raleigh, NC;

6. Oklahoma - Oklahoma City, OK;

7. West Virginia - Brooklyn, NY;

8. Xavier - St. Louis, MO;

9. Indiana - Des Moines, IA;

10. Kentucky (SEC) - Des Moines, IA;

11. Miami FL - Providence, RI;

12. Oregon (Pac 12) - Spokane, WA;

13. Purdue - Providence, RI;

14. Arizona - Denver, CO;

15. Iowa St. - Denver, CO;

16. Maryland - Spokane, WA;

 

4) Discuss in this thread if some team is being grossly overlooked

- I could see arguments for Michigan, Monmouth, Valpo, Mississippi, Virginia Tech/Clemson/Florida State, or Oregon State. But over who? Maybe Houston, who had a bad loss yesterday?

Edited March 12, 2016 by bukie

[bukie]

State of the bracket--

 

Current S-Curve (1-6 seeds, 12-16 seeds):

1. Kansas (Big 12)

2. Villanova (Big East)

3. Virginia (ACC)

4. Michigan State (Big Ten)

5. North Carolina

6. Oklahoma

7. West Virginia

8. Xavier

9. Indiana

10. Kentucky (SEC)

11. Miami FL

12. Oregon (Pac 12)

13. Purdue

14. Arizona

15. Iowa St.

16. Maryland

17. Texas A&M

18. Utah

19. California

20. Duke

21. Baylor

22. Notre Dame

23. Seton Hall

24. Gonzaga - West Coast

...

49. Sun Belt (Arkansas LR)

50. Big West (Hawaii)

51. UNC Wilmington - Colonial

52. South Dakota State - Summit

53. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley

54. MAC (Akron)

55. Chattanooga - Southern

56. America East (Stony Brook)

57. Conference USA (Old Dominion)

58. Iona - MAAC

59. WAC (New Mexico State)

60. UNC Asheville - Big South

61. Big Sky (Weber State)

62. Green Bay - Horizon

63. Florida-Gulf Coast - A-Sun

64. SWAC (Texas Southern)

65. Austin Peay - OVC

66. Mid-Eastern (Hampton)

67. Fairleigh Dickinson - NEC

68. Holy Cross - Patriot

 

7-10 seeds (safely in, need a ranking):

Butler

Cincinnati

Connecticut (American)

Florida

Iowa

Pitt

San Diego State (Mountain West)

St. Mary's

Syracuse

Texas

Texas Tech

VCU (Atlantic 10)

Vandy

Wichita St.

Wisconsin

Yale - Ivy

 

11/play-ins and 12s:

Colorado

Dayton

Houston

Providence

St. Joseph's

South Carolina

SF Austin (Southland)

USC

 

Currently outside, looking in:

Clemson

Florida State

Michigan

Mississippi

Monmouth

Oregon State

Valpo

Virginia Tech

 

Two more lists for the committee:

1. Rank the 7-10 seeds

2. Rank the last 8 in and the first 8 out right now, see if everyone still agrees.

[UMFan83]

Guess what guys I'm a DePaul fan now for the purposes of this committee