Kimbrel to Red Sox for Prospects Margot, Guerra, Allen, Asuaje

[Transmogrified Tiger]

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[UMFan83]

Why the "?"

[UMFan83]

[MarkMero23]

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[Guest]

I'm impressed. Feels like the Padres got better prospects for Kimbrel than the Braves did.

[BrockLanders]

I'm impressed. Feels like the Padres got better prospects for Kimbrel than the Braves did.

 

They did, but taking on Upton's salary was a huge part of that deal.

[Guest]

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Most of Twitter seems to have confirmed it's Asuaje, Allen, Guerra and Margot for Kimbrel with no one else.

[Guest]

I'm impressed. Feels like the Padres got better prospects for Kimbrel than the Braves did.

 

They did, but taking on Upton's salary was a huge part of that deal.

 

Oh yeah, I forgot that.

[Tryptamine]

very steep price.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

What are the Red Sox doing? Drastically over paying for a reliever when your team is not very good is crazy.

[Boris]

Hahahahahahahaha

 

What an awful awful awful trade.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

If San Diego can get this for Kimbrel they are going to be expecting a haul for Ross so we are probably better off looking elsewhere I think.

[Tryptamine]

So, in all likelihood the Red Sox could sign O'Day for 4/36 but instead have chosen to spend just about as much money and give away very good prospects as well for Kimbrel. Color me confused.

[Tedward]

Geez, I wonder what the Reds were asking Red Sox for Chapman...

[Tryptamine]

- Praise Jah that it's Kimbrel rather than Chapman, was a little worried there.

 

- Who are these prospects? Like, Margot is alright, but why is this being treated as such an overwhelming Padres victory? Logan Allen? I thought prospect hysteria would go away after the Shields trade, but I don't think it's ever going away now.

 

Margot is a top 25 guy. Just finished his age 21 season at AA, projects for plus defense, plus to plus plus speed, and elite contact ability. I think he has Michael Bourn written all over him. Guerra is another top 100 guy with legit above average or better defense at SS, but the bat lags behind. Some thing Logan Allen is a closer in the making as well.

[Boris]

The Red Sox giving up four players with a possibility to be contributors and receive no salary refief for a relief pitcher is really stupid. This is a terrible deal.

[Guest]

So, in all likelihood the Red Sox could sign O'Day for 4/36 but instead have chosen to spend just about as much money and give away very good prospects as well for Kimbrel. Color me confused.

 

O'Day is a good reliever, but he's not in Kimbrel's league. The prospects v. money can be debated, but there isn't a Kimbrel in this FA class.

[Guest]

What are the Red Sox doing? Drastically over paying for a reliever when your team is not very good is crazy.

 

They clearly think they're close to competing.

[toonsterwu]

I have mixed feelings about this deal.

 

1. I think that the model of strong bullpens is something that teams are going to copy, as we've seen overall mediocre teams in other areas thrive with strong pens (Baltimore, Yankees, the Royals). One of the fangraphs guys had a comment the other day about elite closers being under-valued, and I think that may be fair. I also think the Red Sox bullpen needed a huge upgrade, and look, if Dombrowski is anything, he's a great short-term GM who will address your short term needs and boost you into competition for a few years. I think they also made the decision that, barring a team meeting their trade price for a starter, they are going to go hard after a SP in free agency. The Red Sox, after all, can spend. Finally, as enticing as Margot/Guerra/Asauje/Allen are as a group, they weren't the Red Sox top tier of prospects, and probably, long term, were trade assets to be utilized anyways. Margot is exciting, but he's also fairly raw offensively, despite having a very solid ceiling. Kimbrel is good, and he'll be a big upgrade.

 

2. Still ... pen arms can be found. Or they can be paid for, giving you the ability to use your other assets elsewhere, and it's not like the Red Sox only had one bullpen need to address. I mean, a quick look at some of the top pen arms will let you know that they are often failed starters (Zach Britton - low 90's sinkerballer starter became an elite mid-90's power sinker pen arm, Dellin Betances had little control as a starter, but in the pen, the stuff plays up, Wade Davis probably could've still succeeded as a starter). Every system has some arms that have that potential (Carl Edwards Jr. is obviously one example for us, but I wonder about Pierce Jonson), and you hope your scouts and development staff can identify which guys to move and which guys to nurture. I'm not exactly convinced the Red Sox prospects are going to pan out - I've been lukewarm on Margot for the most part, while acknowledging that, like Almora, he is young (to be clear, he's a better talent than Almora overall, so there's a bit more leeway). I like Guerra more than Margot, long term, tbh.

 

Look, this is a nice trade for the short term, and the prospects may not pan out. The question shouldn't be whether they pan out, though - the question should be if they could've found a better way to use their assets. I'm not sure, and I wouldn't know, so it's tough for me to say this is horrible, but I clearly don't love it for the Red Sox, but I understand it.

 

For Preller, this is a solid rebound trade focused on rebuilding, and in that sense, okay. You've got a park that "develops" arms, so go get positional assets as the keys to your trade. That works, and makes a ton of sense. Good for him to sell on a pen arm when they are rebuilding and clearly a year or two away from competing for the NL West.

 

- Should add that I don't think the Red Sox are far. With Kimbrel, and if they add an ace, the staff looks very solid, so it would come down to the young bats continuing to develop - basically what we are hoping for as well. They are essentially looking for their Jon Lester now, and hoping the other young arms step up.

[treebird]

other teams spending assets on relievers while the cubs casually slide into a successful pitching staff of two-three real starters, two-three "absolutely never thrice through the order" starters, and a bullpen built largely out of reclaimed starters would make me very happy indeed.

[toonsterwu]

The question shouldn't be whether they pan out, though - the question should be if they could've found a better way to use their assets.

 

I see this spin a lot, and I never buy it. Teams don't go hunting for the worst deal they can get with their prospects. We're talking a no pop speed and defense OF prospect (that's like half a notch above basic), a teenaged pitcher in rookie ball, a decent teenaged MIF prospect, and someone else that I forget. What is that really supposed to get? It's not like Kimbrel is chopped liver either, the only relievers better than him this decade have been Chapman and Davis, and there's a case he was the best of the bunch. These are guys who are/were as valuable to a staff as a #3-4 starter even despite the innings difference.

 

Um ... okay? I'm not exactly disagreeing with your contention - heck, I directly answer that with my statement after the quote you snipped by saying essentially that to call this a bad trade isn't fair, but I don't love it.

 

So, I guess, then, the question is why don't I love it. Again, I completely get the trade, and I get why Dombrowski made it, but I don't love it because it limits their ability/leverage to go after guys in the SP market. The threat of a trade for a SP is a bit more limited (doesn't mean it's impossible, just that it's diminished) because you traded away key prospect depth that could form the secondary pieces to a major SP trade (for example, if you go with Devers or Moncada as the key asset, and either Eduardo Rodriguez or Henry Owens as a the second piece, you probably still need a solid 2nd tier piece like a Margot or Guerra assure yourself of a deal ... again, this doesn't exactly remove the threat of a SP trade, but now, they are a bit more limited).

 

I clearly believe that a staff ace/#1 is of a higher priority, but they certainly needed pen help, and the flip side is that if they waited, they might've missed out on guys. So all in all, I get why Dombrowski did what he did ... I just don't love it.

[toonsterwu]

Sure, by no means am I saying that they were going to actually complete a trade. I'm saying, from a leveraging standpoint, you somewhat close the door to threaten a trade with.

 

Let's put it in a more tangible way - if I'm an agent for Price, Cueto, Zimmerman, or Greinke, I'm salivating at getting the Red Sox to the table, as everyone knows how badly they are beating the drum for an ace, and how Dombrowski just acknowledged that the SP answer is probably coming through FA, because trade options are limited.

 

Certainly, the threat of a Tyson Ross trade isn't on the same magnitude as the rumored strikeouts the Red Sox made (that is, if I recall the report correctly, the asked about Sonny Gray and Chris Sale, two guys a notch above Ross), but that flexibility is now a bit diminished.

 

As a side note, I think if you had put, hypothetically, a Rafael Devers level talent (far away/upside) with a Henry Owens, and maybe couple that with a Guerra or Margot, and another piece, that might be as competitive as any team would likely be willing to consider in a deal, unless a team surprises and pushes an elite chip on the table (and elite chips are limited this winter, as the entirety of minor league baseball is much thinner than in years past).