The Pitchers we can trade for....

[Backtobanks]

The Padres are shopping Ross, according to Rosenthal

 

The Braves look like an obvious trade partner picking up Teheran and Maybin in one deal, but there's no reason we can't go after Ross too. Baez goes in one deal, Soler in the other (plus other prospects). Find somebody to take Hammel and his salary and then use whatever money we have to go after Heyward or Upton.

Rizzo, Castro, Russell, Bryant, Maybin, Heyward/Upton, Montero with a rotation of Arrieta, Lester, Ross, Teheran, and Hendricks.

[Guest]

no way in hell do i trade soler or baez for either of those guys

[Gilby]

I would most definitely trade Baez for Teheran, and I think I'd be in favor of trading him for Ross as well. Soler, on the other hand, as disappointing as he was for pretty much the whole season, his approach/ability to lift the ball in the playoffs was enough for me to go back to being extremely hesitant to deal him.

[Guest]

teheran of the 1.1 fWAR in 200 innings last year

 

you might convince me on ross, but [expletive] pitchers

[Guest]

FWIW, steamer has javy at 1.5 war in 85 G next year. with 17 (!!!!) HR in 363 PA.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I'm not trading Soler for either guy, I would be okay with a Baez for Ross trade but no real interest in Teheran

[Guest]

also i'm the real president of the javy fan club so keep that in mind when i say those things

 

we need him to be a bad ass for us so bad. look what he did to st louis. we need that swag on this team. everyone else is too lovable.

[Cubswin11]

also i'm the real president of the javy fan club so keep that in mind when i say those things

 

we need him to be a bad ass for us so bad. look what he did to st louis. we need that swag on this team. everyone else is too lovable.

I can't say I disagree with this

[davell]

Teheran is under control for 5 seasons at 40.6 mill total. Just 3.3 for 2016. Ross for 2 years and around 10 mill in 2016. I'd take Teheran over Ross easily, considering the payroll expectations. Adding him wouldn't likely affect anything else we do. Adding Ross likely would.

[Guest]

Teheran is under control for 5 seasons at 40.6 mill total. Just 3.3 for 2016. Ross for 2 years and around 10 mill in 2016. I'd take Teheran over Ross easily, considering the payroll expectations. Adding him wouldn't likely affect anything else we do. Adding Ross likely would.

 

except teheran was pretty bad last year (and not in a superficial way that you could write off as bad luck) and ross was very good.

[davell]

Teheran is under control for 5 seasons at 40.6 mill total. Just 3.3 for 2016. Ross for 2 years and around 10 mill in 2016. I'd take Teheran over Ross easily, considering the payroll expectations. Adding him wouldn't likely affect anything else we do. Adding Ross likely would.

 

except teheran was pretty bad last year (and not in a superficial way that you could write off as bad luck) and ross was very good.

 

And with pitchers, how much does that actually even mean to begin with? Teheran had a bad year after 2 pretty good ones.

[Guest]

Teheran is under control for 5 seasons at 40.6 mill total. Just 3.3 for 2016. Ross for 2 years and around 10 mill in 2016. I'd take Teheran over Ross easily, considering the payroll expectations. Adding him wouldn't likely affect anything else we do. Adding Ross likely would.

 

except teheran was pretty bad last year (and not in a superficial way that you could write off as bad luck) and ross was very good.

 

And with pitchers, how much does that actually even mean to begin with? Teheran had a bad year after 2 pretty good ones.

 

bad performance with bad peripherals and recency means plenty.

 

if you can buy low on him and want to gamble on him bouncing back, that's fine. but i'm not giving up any of our big league trade chips for him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

teheran of the 1.1 fWAR in 200 innings last year

 

you might convince me on ross, but [expletive] pitchers

 

That's roughly double what Soler and Baez put up combined. You can't demand other team's assets be valued at a "What they are now" rate while ours get heavy bonuses for their potential.

 

I'd have zero problem with Baez for Teheran. Soler for Teheran is kinda close, but I'd want something else useful coming back to even it out.

 

Either for Ross feels like a steal.

[davell]

Teheran is under control for 5 seasons at 40.6 mill total. Just 3.3 for 2016. Ross for 2 years and around 10 mill in 2016. I'd take Teheran over Ross easily, considering the payroll expectations. Adding him wouldn't likely affect anything else we do. Adding Ross likely would.

 

except teheran was pretty bad last year (and not in a superficial way that you could write off as bad luck) and ross was very good.

 

And with pitchers, how much does that actually even mean to begin with? Teheran had a bad year after 2 pretty good ones.

 

bad performance with bad peripherals and recency means plenty.

 

if you can buy low on him and want to gamble on him bouncing back, that's fine. but i'm not giving up any of our big league trade chips for him.

 

Players have off years. His GB rate went up a pretty good amount. Unfortunately so did his walk rate. That seems correctable. His FB lost value for some reason, even if it gained a bit of velo. Again, the talent is still there. I'd definitely prefer not giving up either of Javy or Soler for him. Of course I'd rather give up minor league guys for him. But if you're going to dock him for his ML performance in 2015, then you need to do the same for our guys.

 

Not to mention, Ross and his slider throwing truly seems like a bigger gamble than even most pitchers.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

FWIW, steamer has javy at 1.5 war in 85 G next year. with 17 (!!!!) HR in 363 PA.

 

Given the SteamerJavy to ActualJavy conversion rate we've seen for the last two years, that means he'll be worth roughly -0.7 WAR.

[Guest]

docking a 22 year old with about a half season of MLB experience and a 23 year old rookie is a lot different than docking a 3rd or 4th year guy. what teheran did this year is kinda like what castro did in 2013, just not as severe. when a guy has already shown he has figured out the big leagues for a while and then loses it, that's a lot more concerning to me than a young player with a strong minor league track record who hasn't yet figured out the big leagues. maybe it's wrong or irrational, but it makes sense to me.

 

plus i'm the president of the javy fan club. that type of power with good middle infield defense is too tantalizing. and he does whatever the [expletive] he wants, like hit go ahead 3 run dongs to vanquish the hopes and souls of the cardinals in the playoffs, so he'll obviously figure it out.

[cubfro]

That's roughly double what Soler and Baez put up combined. You can't demand other team's assets be valued at a "What they are now" rate while ours get heavy bonuses for their potential.

 

Actually you should value an established prime aged major league player based on what they are now, while valueing 22 year old rookies based on their potential. This of course assumes you aren't an "idiot".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Actually you should value an established prime aged major league player based on what they are now, while valueing 22 year old rookies based on their potential. This of course assumes you aren't an "idiot".

 

In the current MLB environment, being 23 is not that far off of the peak of the aging curve.

 

Two consecutive posts with very funny ways of phrasing Teheran's age without actually stating it, because actually stating it would undermine the implication being attempted. He was 24 all of last season.

 

ETA: Which isn't to say I expect a lot of improvement from Teheran either. I'm looking at him as a 2-win guy who has the benefit of some unlikely but tantalizing upside.

[davell]

docking a 22 year old with about a half season of MLB experience and a 23 year old rookie is a lot different than docking a 3rd or 4th year guy. what teheran did this year is kinda like what castro did in 2013, just not as severe. when a guy has already shown he has figured out the big leagues for a while and then loses it, that's a lot more concerning to me than a young player with a strong minor league track record who hasn't yet figured out the big leagues. maybe it's wrong or irrational, but it makes sense to me.

 

plus i'm the president of the javy fan club. that type of power with good middle infield defense is too tantalizing. and he does whatever the [expletive] he wants, like hit go ahead 3 run dongs to vanquish the hopes and souls of the cardinals in the playoffs, so he'll obviously figure it out.

 

 

The president of the Javy fan club means zero to me. I'm way too lazy to look it all up, but there's been a group that's been super high on him for the entirety. Myself among them. Rammy, Tim, and TT have been high on him all along as well.

 

I don't hold a poor season against anyone. 1st, 2nd, 3rd or whatever. But bringing Castro's 2013 up is especially odd, considering he bounced back nicely in 2014.

[Guest]

docking a 22 year old with about a half season of MLB experience and a 23 year old rookie is a lot different than docking a 3rd or 4th year guy. what teheran did this year is kinda like what castro did in 2013, just not as severe. when a guy has already shown he has figured out the big leagues for a while and then loses it, that's a lot more concerning to me than a young player with a strong minor league track record who hasn't yet figured out the big leagues. maybe it's wrong or irrational, but it makes sense to me.

 

plus i'm the president of the javy fan club. that type of power with good middle infield defense is too tantalizing. and he does whatever the [expletive] he wants, like hit go ahead 3 run dongs to vanquish the hopes and souls of the cardinals in the playoffs, so he'll obviously figure it out.

 

 

The president of the Javy fan club means zero to me. I'm way too lazy to look it all up, but there's been a group that's been super high on him for the entirety. Myself among them. Rammy, Tim, and TT have been high on him all along as well.

 

I don't hold a poor season against anyone. 1st, 2nd, 3rd or whatever. But bringing Castro's 2013 up is especially odd, considering he bounced back nicely in 2014.

 

 

and then laid a horrible stink bomb of an egg in 2015 (yes, with a very nice finish). i have very little faith in castro going forward as a result of him being beyond awful for most of the last 3 years.

 

i'm obviously kidding (and explaining that i'm obviously biased) when i bring up the javy fan club thing.

 

you should hold a poor season against anyone...especially if it's their most recent one and the numbers say it wasn't just bad luck.

 

then if he has a good season next year, you can revise again.

Edited November 16, 2015 by David

[Guest]

Actually you should value an established prime aged major league player based on what they are now, while valueing 22 year old rookies based on their potential. This of course assumes you aren't an "idiot".

 

In the current MLB environment, being 23 is not that far off of the peak of the aging curve.

 

Two consecutive posts with very funny ways of phrasing Teheran's age without actually stating it, because actually stating it would undermine the implication being attempted. He was 24 all of last season.

 

ETA: Which isn't to say I expect a lot of improvement from Teheran either. I'm looking at him as a 2-win guy who has the benefit of some unlikely but tantalizing upside.

 

this is where i say "blah blah experience matters"

 

and then you respond with "yada yada he doesn't get credit for getting to the big leagues later/older"

 

that about right?

[davell]

Again, I think the walks can head back down. I think that's his key. The breaking stuff was hit harder than normal and it probably helped lessen the effectiveness of his FB in the process. I'll take talent and let Bosio to from there.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yep. Sounds right.

[davell]

I'm resigned to the fact we're trading one of Javy or Soler. I just want the best young pitcher that it'll net us. And in doing so, I completely expect us to still be able to grab a truly elite FA in the process. Its starting to look to me that there's not a bunch available either. Its a means to an end thing, I guess. I didn't like what Boston had to give up for Kimbrel. But they've still got tons of assets and money to spend. So in the end, I get why they did it. That's kind of what I suspect happens with us in this scenario.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm resigned to the fact we're trading one of Javy or Soler. I just want the best young pitcher that it'll net us. And in doing so, I completely expect us to still be able to grab a truly elite FA in the process. Its starting to look to me that there's not a bunch available either. Its a means to an end thing, I guess. I didn't like what Boston had to give up for Kimbrel. But they've still got tons of assets and money to spend. So in the end, I get why they did it. That's kind of what I suspect happens with us in this scenario.

 

I'm kind of guessing we don't trade either. As Gato mentioned in the other thread, part of why Boston gave up so much for Kimbrel is that they'd been dangling those guys for starting pitchers and didn't seem like anyone was interested in trading young, high-quality pitching. I think we'd *like* to make a Baez or Soler for great young pitcher trade, but I'm not sure we'll find anyone to give us what we want, and this front office loves pulling the "Fine, we'll just run with what we have" card.