FanGraphs Crowdsources the FA Market

[davell]

I think he's likely our top target. I agree that he's probably not special in CF. He could stopgap there for a year or two, but I wouldn't want him there long.

 

With as much as those guys have talked about how FAs in their prime years are rare (and kind of hand in hand, but not wanting to pay for past production), plus the fact that he profiles as their type of player (patient approach/OBP, power, helps with our contact issues, plus defense - there's also the comments about lefty bats in wrigley from a few years ago that you can throw into the mix), I just cant see how they won't be very strongly interested, even if this team's more glaring needs appear to be in the middle of the rotation.

 

Oh I think he'd continue to be excellent in RF for a while. If we do get him, I hope that's where we play him. Another reason I think we'll go hard after him is it weakens a division rival.

[Guest]

I really hope the NL adopts the DH as part of the '17 labor negotiations.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I really hope the NL adopts the DH as part of the '17 labor negotiations.

I never wanted the DH. Until this team.

[Guest]

I really hope the NL adopts the DH as part of the '17 labor negotiations.

I never wanted the DH. Until this team.

Same.

[Guest]

it's so sad how quickly manfred crushed our NL DH dreams that hung on him

[sneakypower]

i'm here to argue that from our vantage point Jason Heyward will be underpaid regardless of the contract he signs

 

steamer projections (fangraphs median FA estimates)

Jason Heyward: 4.7 WAR / 603 PA (8/184)

Denard Span: 2.2 / 564 PA (3/36)

Dexter Fowler: 1.7 / 596 PA (4/56)

Austin Jackson: 1.4 / 582 PA (3/30)

 

there's a glaring hole there in CF for the Cubs that'll need to be filled most likely through FA; i've asserted before that there's an inefficiency available to us with the smaller CF dimensions in Wrigley that has even allowed Fowler's poor range to register as a positive for the first time ever in a full season, and with Heyward's terrific lateral radius i fully view him as a CF option for us (but if somehow he unexpectedly flames out there, we know full well we can always shift him back to RF and trade the guy who was 6 wins worse this season, yet still has tons of trade value)

 

looking through the obvious FA options, Span seems at least superficially like the best option, because of course the steamer projections aren't considering his hip problems- but, even taking the best-case scenario, optimistic view of his health he's 2.5 wins worse than Heyward

 

most estimates i've seen, including some FO sources cited have put the value of a win in FA now at around $6-8m, so you're probably valuing a 2.5-win gap at about $18m, and on top of the $12m salary Span looks likely to earn, you can very reasonably argue for Heyward being worth $30m/per in that lens (valuing him relative to Fowler & Jackson puts him "worth" $35m/$33m annually, respectively)

 

but also consider the significant added value of pulling him from St. Louis:

 

Grichuk: 2.0 / 588 PA

Holliday: 1.7 /503 PA

Pham: 0.5 / 176 PA

Moss: 1.0 / 459 PA

Piscotty: 1.1 / 521 PA

Justin Upton: 3.0 / 638 PA (6/120)

 

losing Heyward leaves a 600 PA hole that they'd be able to fill internally most likely with a combination of Moss & Piscotty, which can reasonably be assessed as a 1.5 WAR standard for that spot; they can decide to opt for Upton instead, inefficiently paying out $13m/WAR for the upgrade

 

but even still, upon putting pen to ink for a Heyward-Cubs contract, we at the very least gain upward of 4 wins on St. Louis relative to current roster construction; that should be a reason for us to covet him a little greater than the other presumed, rumored competitors like LAD, NYY, etc.

Edited November 10, 2015 by sneakypower

[Guest]

sneaky - what's your preferred method of addressing pitching if you put your big FA dollars into Heyward?

[sneakypower]

[expletive] PITCHING

 

it's hard to say without a full read on our budget - i have an optimistic view of the funds that should be available to management...but if we're penny-pinching, i say see where a package along the lines of Castro, PJ, McKinney gets you (Teheran/Ross/Ventura?) or even mess around with speculative upside arms that The Cutter Whisperer wants to endow with his wisdom (Erasmo Ramirez? Nate Karns? Andrew Cashner? i obviously have no relevant insight here)

 

at suggested prices mentioned above, i also really like the value of Mike Leake, Brett Anderson, Hisashi Iwakuma, Doug Fister, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill...if our budget allows for more than that, then great, gimme Jordan Zimmermann at 5/110 or w/e

 

i should also note i'm not particularly desperate to expunge from the rotation Hammel & his 3.49 FIP as a Cub, but if we're believers in the persisting narrative he's due for a 2nd-half plunge, then bolster your team with next year's Hamels/Cueto/Kazmir at the deadline if that's deemed a necessity (Theo has said he expects organizational pitching depth on the farm to 'explode' this season so if there's truth to that you can imagine this would be easily achieved without really sacrificing much in the way of long-term franchise health)

[Guest]

I'm pretty much in agreement. Heyward is my first priority if I'm in charge. Then I assess how much I have left over to see what direction to go. In addition to your list, there are one or two Cuban arms that are ready or near-ready and would come with options. I'm really hoping we make an investment there, as well.

[davell]

If you can get Heyward, trade Javy+ for Carrasco/Salazar/etc, and signed Shark or someone else in that realm, it'd be an awfully nice off season. I'd be extremely happy with it and it seems doable.

 

That said, it doesn't get talked about here because playoffs are a crapshoot or whatever.(they are, I'm not arguing it) But fielding a lineup including Heyward, Montero, and Schwarber in the playoffs(bad to pitiful against lefties) doesn't set up well when there's a fairly solid chance you'll see Kershaw or Bumgarner in the playoffs, with a pretty decent chance that Price winds up on one of those teams as well.

 

I get that you can't truly build for the possibility of facing any certain team. But building a slightly more balanced team could still be on the agenda to where this type of scenario(facing any playoff team with a dominant lefty or two) doesn't automatically look like we're in a match up from hell.

[Rex Buckingham]

I'm pretty much in agreement. Heyward is my first priority if I'm in charge. Then I assess how much I have left over to see what direction to go. In addition to your list, there are one or two Cuban arms that are ready or near-ready and would come with options. I'm really hoping we make an investment there, as well.

 

I really want the Cubans, can never have too many talented arms and they will cost relatively little in terms of money compared to the potential they possess.

[sneakypower]

That said, it doesn't get talked about here because playoffs are a crapshoot or whatever.(they are, I'm not arguing it) But fielding a lineup including Heyward, Montero, and Schwarber in the playoffs(bad to pitiful against lefties) doesn't set up well when there's a fairly solid chance you'll see Kershaw or Bumgarner in the playoffs, with a pretty decent chance that Price winds up on one of those teams as well.

 

I get that you can't truly build for the possibility of facing any certain team. But building a slightly more balanced team could still be on the agenda to where this type of scenario(facing any playoff team with a dominant lefty or two) doesn't automatically look like we're in a match up from hell.

Daniel Murphy hit .254/.284/.349 vs. lefties this year

Matt Adams hit .190/.231/.298 vs. lefties last year

both homered off Kershaw in the postseason

 

VERDICT:

http://beatingpancreatitis.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/crap-shoot-300x169.jpg

[biittner77]

If you can get Heyward, trade Javy+ for Carrasco/Salazar/etc, and signed Shark or someone else in that realm, it'd be an awfully nice off season. I'd be extremely happy with it and it seems doable.

 

That said, it doesn't get talked about here because playoffs are a crapshoot or whatever.(they are, I'm not arguing it) But fielding a lineup including Heyward, Montero, and Schwarber in the playoffs(bad to pitiful against lefties) doesn't set up well when there's a fairly solid chance you'll see Kershaw or Bumgarner in the playoffs, with a pretty decent chance that Price winds up on one of those teams as well.

 

I get that you can't truly build for the possibility of facing any certain team. But building a slightly more balanced team could still be on the agenda to where this type of scenario(facing any playoff team with a dominant lefty or two) doesn't automatically look like we're in a match up from hell.

 

Rizzo was able to make the adjustments to do better against LH pitching. Schwarber has a good work ethic so it's reasonable to expect his splits to get better next season. While we're being optimistic, Contreras might be able to help provide some balance.

[Cubswin11]

If you can get Heyward, trade Javy+ for Carrasco/Salazar/etc, and signed Shark or someone else in that realm, it'd be an awfully nice off season. I'd be extremely happy with it and it seems doable.

 

That said, it doesn't get talked about here because playoffs are a crapshoot or whatever.(they are, I'm not arguing it) But fielding a lineup including Heyward, Montero, and Schwarber in the playoffs(bad to pitiful against lefties) doesn't set up well when there's a fairly solid chance you'll see Kershaw or Bumgarner in the playoffs, with a pretty decent chance that Price winds up on one of those teams as well.

 

I get that you can't truly build for the possibility of facing any certain team. But building a slightly more balanced team could still be on the agenda to where this type of scenario(facing any playoff team with a dominant lefty or two) doesn't automatically look like we're in a match up from hell.

 

Rizzo was able to make the adjustments to do better against LH pitching. Schwarber has a good work ethic so it's reasonable to expect his splits to get better next season. While we're being optimistic, Contreras might be able to help provide some balance.

Yeah I think it's reasonable to expect Schwarber to at least be serviceable vs LHP in the future, he's just too good of a hitter. He should be able to put up a slash line like .250/.320/.400 against them