8/23 other games

[SpongeWorthy]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

[ARCubsFan]

Baseball Prospectus still has the Cubs at 4.6% winning the division while 8.9% missing the playoffs.

 

I just don't really care about this game. If the Giants were to lose, it just puts the Cubs a half game closer to the playoffs and there's nothing bad about that at all.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

This AR guy is worried about the Giants sweeping the Cubs and catching up 5.5 games back, but the Cubs catching the Cardinals 6.5 games out? IMPOSSIBLE.

 

Not to mention: The odds are even better for us to pass the Cardinals than for the Giants to pass us, when not looked at in a vacuum. For one, we have six more games head-to-head against the Cardinals; the Giants only get three against us. Secondly, the Giants have some atrocious starting pitching. Thirdly, they have Panik and that alien-looking weirdo on the DL. On the other hand, the Cards have several position players on the DL and are giving regular playing time to a bunch of horrible players. I mean, something called Tommy Pham was hitting second for them today. Their offense is garbage right now. Also... need I remind him again of the dongs?

[UMFan83]

Another thing not being mentioned when the Giants deficit to us is brought up is that I'm pretty sure we sealed the tie breaker (which I'm assuming is head to head but maybe baseball has some stupid other thing) by sweeping the first 4.

 

The tiebreaker is a tiebreaking game to advance to the WC game like the Rangers/Rays a few years ago.

 

Unless you are referring to HFA in that game, which I believe is still coinflip or some stupid [expletive]

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Baseball Prospectus still has the Cubs at 4.6% winning the division while 8.9% missing the playoffs.

 

I just don't really care about this game. If the Giants were to lose, it just puts the Cubs a half game closer to the playoffs and there's nothing bad about that at all.

 

BP doesn't update until the next day, right? Another day down, another day of not gaining ground on us for the Giants -- even if they come back and win. The longer that goes on, the more difficult it is for them to catch us.

[Guest]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

 

I don't know about a lot less.

 

It's like 5% in either direction if the end goal is a championship. 0% chance of winning the world series if caught by the giants vs roughly 12% chance of winning the world series if the cardinals are caught for the division.

 

obviously if the goal is more just "watch cubs play in the playoffs" (which i understand and is actually how i feel - i'm just not worried about the giants catching us) then the calculus is a lot different. but in terms of winning the world series, catching the cardinals doubles our chances.

Edited August 24, 2015 by David

[Guest]

Another thing not being mentioned when the Giants deficit to us is brought up is that I'm pretty sure we sealed the tie breaker (which I'm assuming is head to head but maybe baseball has some stupid other thing) by sweeping the first 4.

 

The tiebreaker is a tiebreaking game to advance to the WC game like the Rangers/Rays a few years ago.

 

Unless you are referring to HFA in that game, which I believe is still coinflip or some stupid [expletive]

 

god i'm a [expletive] idiot

 

i had my head in NFL rules for some reason (like they wouldn't add another playoff game)

[Guest]

stupid giants

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

 

It's actually pretty close. Our World Series odds as a Wild Card team are about half of what they would be if we were guaranteed to not play in the Wild Card game. So ~6% as a Wild Card and ~12% as a division winner.

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

I also like that the Dodgers have fallen back so that they and the Giants are so close for the division. They still play 7 games against each other. The worst outcome for us in those 7 games would probably be one team winning 4 (which still guarantees the other loses 4 out of 7). If one wins 5 or 6 of them, that even further buries the other in the wild card race.

[Guest]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

 

It's actually pretty close. Our World Series odds as a Wild Card team are about half of what they would be if we were guaranteed to not play in the Wild Card game. So ~6% as a Wild Card and ~12% as a division winner.

 

our minds are one

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I also like that the Dodgers have fallen back so that they and the Giants are so close for the division. They still play 7 games against each other. The worst outcome for us in those 7 games would probably be one team winning 4 (which still guarantees the other loses 4 out of 7). If one wins 5 or 6 of them, that even further buries the other in the wild card race.

 

They also both have a bunch of games with Arizona left, and they are kinda terrifying offensively. And the Padres, who at least aren't horrible. And they have to go to Coors; have fun getting into the bullpen with Vogelsong and Cain and the rest of their shitty rotation. And the Dodgers have the Angels and Pirates.

 

I'm completely past worrying about them.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

 

It's actually pretty close. Our World Series odds as a Wild Card team are about half of what they would be if we were guaranteed to not play in the Wild Card game. So ~6% as a Wild Card and ~12% as a division winner.

 

our minds are one

 

lol... I missed your post. But, what's this 5 and 10%... you aren't giving us a dong bump to the full 1/8?

[ARCubsFan]

Pirates luck

[Ski]

Of course Cerveli with the amazing block.

[Guest]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

 

It's actually pretty close. Our World Series odds as a Wild Card team are about half of what they would be if we were guaranteed to not play in the Wild Card game. So ~6% as a Wild Card and ~12% as a division winner.

 

our minds are one

 

lol... I missed your post. But, what's this 5 and 10%... you aren't giving us a dong bump to the full 1/8?

 

yeah that was lazy (bad) math on my part

[NOLA]

Six games left vs STL. Six games left vs Pitt.

The Cubs can still catch either team.

[Gilby]

The Cardinals also get a September full of the Reds and Brewers. We've seen extreme luck (Cardinals' offense of 2013, Orioles' ridiculous one-run game record a few years ago as well) carry on for a full season, so I'm not necessarily expecting the LOB% to come crashing down to earth all of a sudden in September.

 

I'm fine with padding the lead even more on the Giants here and maybe being able to limit Arrieta's innings the final month to prepare him for a Madbum type run.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Six games left vs STL. Six games left vs Pitt.

The Cubs can still catch either team.

 

How great would it be if the Cardinals won 98 games and finished third in the division?

 

On a similar note, that would suck if we did...

[Cubswin11]

Giants lose, 6 up, 7 in the loss column

[SouthSideRyan]

The marginal utility of catching the Cards is a lot a less than the marginal loss of being caught by the Giants.

 

It's actually pretty close. Our World Series odds as a Wild Card team are about half of what they would be if we were guaranteed to not play in the Wild Card game. So ~6% as a Wild Card and ~12% as a division winner.

 

Odds are not linear. The difference between a 0% chance heading into the playoffs and a 6% chance is not the same as the difference between a 6% and 12%

[ARCubsFan]

Cubs are up to 95.8% playoff odds on Fangraphs

[Derwood]

Cubs are up to 95.8% playoff odds on Fangraphs