Fun with small (but not too small) sample WAR

[Clem Fandango]

After reading Schoenfield's early AS selections, he mentioned Montero as a backup to the reserve choice of Grandal (Posey as starter)...

 

Yasmani Grandal:

28 G 84 AB .298/.417/.500/.917 4 HR 15 RBI 25 H 16 1B 5 2B 17 R 18:21 BB:SO 1.1 fWAR

 

Miguel Montero:

28 G 74 AB .297/.413/.500/.913 4 HR 15 RBI 22 H 15 1B 3 2B 8 R 16:17 BB:SO 0.9 fWAR

 

Eerie how similar their numbers are. Fangraphs rates Grandal's offense at 6.5. Montero's is 4.8.

 

Still, thought that was pretty nice that Montero is practically going punch for punch with one of the better regarded catchers in the NL. Seems Montero's got his groove back. *sassy finger snap*

[sneakypower]

5/26 update (162 G pace)

 

Rizzo: 7.78

Bryant: 7.35

Fowler: 5.15

Russell: 3.17

Montero: 4.30

Coghlan: 2.63

Soler: 1.85

Castro: -0.94

 

Coghlan's an interesting case: he's had 8 games with just one plate appearance / also shielding him from LHP, so that effects his pace some, but he's also been evaluated by UZR as the 2nd-best fielding LF largely on account of his throwing, and he's on pace for 25+ HR while never before reaching double-digits, but then he's sitting at .220 BABIP after entering the season with a .324 career mark

 

he's been the worst Cubs hitter for win contribution (-0.70 WPA), in large part due to situational splits:

bases empty - .355 wOBA / .242 BABIP & 30% hard-hit

runners on - .237 wOBA / .172 BABIP & 40% hard-hit

 

all of this is basically a roundabout way of saying we've gotten a total bizarro-world version of Chris Coghlan the first two months of the season

[treebird]

Coghlan . . . evaluated by UZR as the 2nd-best fielding LF

 

time to put uzr in the garbage can

[Sammy Sofa]

Those bottom two...

 

http://i.giphy.com/UdqUo8xvEcvgA.gif

[sneakypower]

Coghlan . . . evaluated by UZR as the 2nd-best fielding LF

 

time to put uzr in the garbage can

don't be that guy

 

he has 5 assists and has failed on just one semi-routine play all season; it's perfectly fair to assess him positive impact to this point

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[KingCubsFan]

Those bottom two...

 

http://i.giphy.com/UdqUo8xvEcvgA.gif

I'm not really sure what to make of Soler's season so far. On the one hand, he has the third highest K% among outfielders and an unsustainable .413 BABIP. But he also has one of the highest LD%, Hard Hit %, and Medium Hit %, and his HR/FB% is only 9.7%. His O-Swing% is slightly higher than it was last year, and the only other big change to his plate discipline is that he's missing more on pitches he swings at outside of the zone. The contact rate is also too low, but that's due to swinging at too many balls.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, he's kind of all over the place. It's not a disastrous season or anything for him, but personally I was really hoping for him to be a monster. I really expected that 162 game projection to be what he already had at this point in the season.

[Clem Fandango]

I was kinda expecting/hoping for Soler to have at least 5 or 6 HR by the end of April. I'm pretty confident his 57.3 AB/HR rate will eventually straighten itself out, but it's been pretty upsetting so far this season.

[Cubswin11]

How does Castro rank defensively? From the eye test it seems like he's having his best year yet

[Clem Fandango]

How does Castro rank defensively? From the eye test it seems like he's having his best year yet

 

Just the basic FG defensive metrics...

 

Rankings NL/MLB

 

UZR: -2.1 | 13th/20th

UZR/150: -5.5 | 10th/17th

DEF: -0.1 | 13th/20th

[Banedon]

How does Castro rank defensively? From the eye test it seems like he's having his best year yet

 

I don't have the stats to back this up, but he was fantastic early on, and then it's been a rough go in May.

[sneakypower]

Rizzo 8th in baseball (8.5) and Bryant is 11th (7.5) for full-season fWAR pace

 

Castro 9th-worst, surrounded by star names (Utley, Ortiz, Kemp, Zimmerman, Hanley, Cano, CarGo)

[Smack]

Rizzo 8th in baseball (8.5) and Bryant is 11th (7.5) for full-season fWAR pace

 

Castro 9th-worst, surrounded by star names (Utley, Ortiz, Kemp, Zimmerman, Hanley, Cano, CarGo)

 

That's a whole lot of money for bad production. Yikes.

[Rob]

Rizzo 8th in baseball (8.5) and Bryant is 11th (7.5) for full-season fWAR pace

 

Castro 9th-worst, surrounded by star names (Utley, Ortiz, Kemp, Zimmerman, Hanley, Cano, CarGo)

 

I imagine that's the case a lot of the time. Hard to bench those guys you're paying big money for. So you keep running them out there until they're either fixed or you can justify just dumping them.

[Cubswin11]

Not WAR related, but some interesting notes from Keri's post on Grantland today.

 

If the playoffs were to start today, the two teams that strike out the most would both make the playoffs. One is the Astros, who lead the AL West. The other is the Cubs, who occupy the National League’s second wild-card spot. Both of those teams have fanned just short of 25 percent of the time.

 

The Cubs’ no-contact ways don’t end there, either. The North Siders also own baseball’s third-highest walk rate, drawing free passes 9 percent of the time. Combine those two numbers and you have a team that ends plate appearances without making contact more than one-third of the time — the highest mark in the majors.

 

That approach carries with it a hidden benefit: On the way to all of those strikeouts and walks, the Cubbies have worked an inordinate number of deep counts. According to ESPN research, they’ve worked the count to 3-2 a total of 358 times this season, also the highest such total in MLB. Factor in pitchers hitting — the Jon Lester–led Cubs are the second-worst group of pitcher-hitters in the NL — and all of those full counts become even more impressive.