Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-12-15

[Guest]

I'm pretty sure Javy won't be back up until we get an extra year of control on him, so I don't think he'd affect a Russell call up.

 

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be.

 

For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster.

 

(I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.)

 

Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

 

As you're saying, the only way Javy earns his way back up quickly is by Bryant-ing all over AAA immediately. Otherwise he'll be close enough to an extra year of control, that I'm sure they'd hold him down.

I think that's the opposite of what he's saying.

 

He's saying if Baez explodes, then the extra year will matter, and in turn they'd want the extra year. If he just Javys along, then it wouldn't make sense to call him up until he's close to the extra year anyway

Sorta, I think...

 

He's saying that if Javy explodes, they'll likely keep him down until June to get the extra year. But if Javy is meh, they can call him up at any time now because who cares about the extra year.

[Guest]

But without Javy exploding there's no impetus to call him up soon.

[Guest]

But without Javy exploding there's no impetus to call him up soon.

Well, I'm assuming this is a spectrum as opposed to an either/or.

[biittner77]

Is he still on leave? I don't see his name in any of the AAA box scores

[Guest]

Is he still on leave? I don't see his name in any of the AAA box scores

 

Mooney mentioned he should be returning to the team later this week.

[craig]

Control isn't a big deal with Baez and won't drive if or when he gets called up.

 

You don't obsess over control seven years from now for players who aren't likely to be stars.

 

He doesn't make enough contact to project as a star, so there's little reason to let 7-years-from-now-control dictate what you do with him now.

[Guest]

Control isn't a big deal with Baez and won't drive if or when he gets called up.

 

You don't obsess over control seven years from now for players who aren't likely to be stars.

 

He doesn't make enough contact to project as a star, so there's little reason to let 7-years-from-now-control dictate what you do with him now.

 

a .750 OPS 2B with good defense (what you were saying would be a good outcome for him IIRC) is much closer to being a star than JAG.