2015 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[bukie]

Two conference tournaments start today, so let's start the 12th annual committee thread. We can either do this in thread discussion or via PMs to me, but by next weekend we'll have a full field selected, seeded and bracketed.

 

To participate, just reply with your favorite team and a list of the teams that should be considered for a tourney berth by Tuesday March 10.

[SouthSideRyan]

My 1 bid conferences:

 

SWAC

MEAC

WAC

ASun

AmEast

NEC

BSky

SoCon

Big South

Patriot

OVC

Summit

Sun Belt

Metro

Colonial

Horizon

Ivy

Big West

MAC

 

I only have ODU and Stephen F Austin as potential at-larges from CUSA and Southland, and they're pretty big longshots to be worthy.

 

ETA: So eliminating those last 2, that leaves 47 spots from the remaining 11 conferences.

[Rex Buckingham]

My 1 bid conferences:

 

SWAC

MEAC

WAC

ASun

AmEast

NEC

BSky

SoCon

Big South

Patriot

OVC

Summit

Sun Belt

Metro

Colonial

Horizon

Ivy

Big West

MAC

 

I only have ODU and Stephen F Austin as potential at-larges from CUSA and Southland, and they're pretty big longshots to be worthy.

 

ETA: So eliminating those last 2, that leaves 47 spots from the remaining 11 conferences.

 

I've got the same one-bid leagues, so to be considered for at-large berths:

 

 

A10: Rhode Island, Davidson, Dayton, VCU

AAC: Tulsa, Temple, Cincinnati, SMU

ACC: Miami (FL), Pitt, NC State, UNC, ND, Louisville, Duke, Virginia

Big East: Xavier, St Johns, Providence, GTown, Butler, Villanova

Big Ten: Minnesota, Illinois [my favorite team], Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, Wisconsin

Big 12: TCU, Texas, OK State, WV, Iowa St, OU, Baylor, Kansas

Conference USA: Old Dominion

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West: Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State

PAC 12: UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Utah, Arizona

SEC: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, TAMU, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas, Kentucky

Southland: Stephen F Austin

West Coast: St Mary's, BYU, Gonzaga

 

 

Those above are ordered roughly from most on the bubble to safest within the conference (in my opinion, of course)

[SouthSideRyan]

The SEC is an amorphous blob of bubble teams after Kentucky. All of their best wins are against each other except for LSU who beat WV. And then LSU proceeded to lose to the 3 worst teams in the conference.

[bukie]

Every year I don't look at the RPI until now, and every year I see things that are ridiculous.

 

Buffalo currently sports an RPI of 35.

Illinois is 2-2 against the RPI top 10.

[bukie]

Potential bid thievery starts tonight, as Wichita State and Northern Iowa begin playing in the MVC tournament.

[bukie]

Murray State (ranked #25 by coaches who obviously aren't paying attention) is down 10 midway through the second half of their OVC semifinal. I doubt their profile is good enough for at large consideration, as even their RPI is in the 60s.

[bukie]

Also, Yale leads by 4 at Harvard with 5 to play. Both are currently tied at 10-2 in the Ivy.

[bukie]

Murray State came back to win 80-77.

[bukie]

Yale beats Harvard, and is one win away from its first Ivy title since the Kennedy administration.

[OleMissCub]

The SEC is an amorphous blob of bubble teams after Kentucky. All of their best wins are against each other except for LSU who beat WV. And then LSU proceeded to lose to the 3 worst teams in the conference.

 

I agree with the amorphous blob comment, seems that way most years with the SEC, but fwiw Ole Miss has a win at Oregon which is pretty comparable to LSU's win at WV.

[NOLA]

The SEC is an amorphous blob of bubble teams after Kentucky. All of their best wins are against each other except for LSU who beat WV. And then LSU proceeded to lose to the 3 worst teams in the conference.

 

I agree with the amorphous blob comment, seems that way most years with the SEC, but fwiw Ole Miss has a win at Oregon which is pretty comparable to LSU's win at WV.

Um yeah, the SEC is bad, but Arkansas is a lock and projected as a #4 seed by many.

[bukie]

Statistically, there's very little difference between Arkansas and Davidson. Yet one is "projected as a lock and a 4 seed" and the other is barely on the bubble.

[bukie]

Here's my potential list: any team currently in the top 70 KP (because they're quality) or RPI (because the committee uses it), that is tournament eligible (sorry, Syracuse):

 

AAC: Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU, Temple, Tulsa

ACC: Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Virginia

A-10: Davidson, Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, UMass, VCU

B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

B12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia

Big East: Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Villanova, Xavier

CUSA: Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion

Horizon: Green Bay, Valparaiso

Ivy: Harvard, Yale

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Buffalo

MVC: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State

MWC: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

OVC: Murray State

Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Southland: Stephen F Austin

Southern: Wofford

WCC: BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

 

78 teams overall from 20 conferences, seems pretty inclusive, considering there's only 36 at large bids, so a maximum of 56 teams on this list would make it.

[bukie]

Wichita State is 5 down to Illinois State with 30 seconds to play.

[bukie]

Belmont upset Murray State to win the OVC.

[bukie]

Yale blew the Ivy League title by losing at Dartmouth last night, so Harvard and Yale will play a tiebreaker game for the Ivy League next Saturday at Penn.

[bukie]

This will be the first time in Patriot League history that the 1 or 2 seed won't win the conference tourney. Reward: likely play in game.

[bukie]

Today's auto bids:

 

Big South: Coastal Carolina

MVC: Northern Iowa (saving an at large bid)

Atlantic Sun: North Florida

[SouthSideRyan]

Belmont upset Murray State to win the OVC.

 

Murray is a non-starter for me. Best win vs. ISU. Losses to Houston, Valpo, Portland, and Belmont.

[SouthSideRyan]

MAAC, CAA, and SoCon give away bids today.

 

Wofford is playing the last place team in the Championship, so they should really be out with a loss.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wofford survives. Northeastern keeps William & Mary tourney drought alive.

 

Even if Wofford blew out Furman, I don't think I'd have them above any at-large teams. 1 win over a potential tourney team in NCST, and losses to William & Mary, Chattanooga, and one of the worst teams in D1, The Citadel. Northeastern with 11 losses to non-tourney teams is an obvious non-starter

[SouthSideRyan]

Manhattan in, Iona lost to a slew of non-tourney teams, and beat none.

[bukie]

Murray State's coach gave what had to be the worst transitive property argument for being a tourney team. They didn't beat tourney teams, but they beat teams who beat tourney teams.

[SouthSideRyan]

Murray State's coach gave what had to be the worst transitive property argument for being a tourney team. They didn't beat tourney teams, but they beat teams who beat tourney teams.

 

There can't even be that many of those teams. ISU and Evansville beat Wichita and UNI once apiece, then a couple teams with a win apiece over bubble teams. That's literally all I can find.