Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Offseason Rumors & Transactions Thread

Clem Fandango
 Share
  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Everyone's assuming inflation and interest. But that's only half the equation. It is equally likely that there will be a deflationary period and backloading will end up costing them a lot more.

???

 

1) count the number of years with inflation and deflation and defend those being equally likely

 

2) it isn't about inflation as much as opportunity cost.

chopsx9 Draft Eligible

chopsx9

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Everyone's assuming inflation and interest. But that's only half the equation. It is equally likely that there will be a deflationary period and backloading will end up costing them a lot more.

 

Not really. There has only been 1 period of deflation in the US since the 40's. 2008 - 2009.

 

Easiest example of the present value of money is a lottery pay out. You win $100 million, they either give you $10mill a year over 10 years or a lump sum of 60 million (I'm fudging the amount). you can read the posted link if you want the calcs.

Edited by chopsx9
Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Everyone's assuming inflation and interest. But that's only half the equation. It is equally likely that there will be a deflationary period and backloading will end up costing them a lot more.

???

 

1) count the number of years with inflation and deflation and defend those being equally likely

 

 

Then we're due for deflation. Regression to the mean.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Everyone's assuming inflation and interest. But that's only half the equation. It is equally likely that there will be a deflationary period and backloading will end up costing them a lot more.

 

Not really. There has only been 1 period of deflation in the US since the 40's. 2008 - 2009.

 

Easiest example of the present value of money is a lottery pay out. You win $100 million, they either give you $10mill a year over 10 years or a lump sum of 60 million (I'm fudging the amount). you can read the posted link if you want the calcs.

 

They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

chopsx9 Draft Eligible

chopsx9

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Everyone's assuming inflation and interest. But that's only half the equation. It is equally likely that there will be a deflationary period and backloading will end up costing them a lot more.

???

 

1) count the number of years with inflation and deflation and defend those being equally likely

 

 

Then we're due for deflation. Regression to the mean.

 

Unfortunately the mean is still infationary.

 

I don't think Cameron has it right. Who cares what the stock market return is - that's not the either or situation here and the time value of money isn't based on stock market return. The discounts rates on the various payments need to be different - the Nats aren't sitting on $210 million today - some of that money isn't going to be earned by the Nats until 6 years from now.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Everyone should read Kyle's last two posts as him being a smart ass and not as serious posts.
Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Everyone should read Kyle's last two posts as him being a smart ass and not as serious posts.

 

We've had deflation more recently than we've had a Theo Epstein playoff win and people get mad if you don't predict the latter in the next 14 years.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

Just because you're doing this...effects.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

Just because you're doing this...effects.

 

Effects is a verb meaning creates. It makes no grammatical sense to use a verb as the object of the preposition "plus," and what would it even be creating?

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

Just because you're doing this...effects.

 

Effects is a verb meaning creates. It makes no grammatical sense to use a verb as the object of the preposition "plus," and what would it even be creating?

lol - just so anyone else may not get confused at Kyle Kyling (which is a verb!):

 

ef·fect

əˈfekt/

noun

plural noun: effects

1.

a change that is a result or consequence of an action or other cause.

"the lethal effects of hard drugs"

 

af·fect

əˈfekt/

verb

3rd person present: affects

have an effect on; make a difference to.

"the dampness began to affect my health"

synonyms: have an effect on, influence, act on, work on, have an impact on, impact; More

touch the feelings of (someone); move emotionally.

"the atrocities he witnessed have affected him most deeply"

synonyms: move, touch, make an impression on, hit (hard), tug at someone's heartstrings; More

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

Just because you're doing this...effects.

 

Effects is a verb meaning creates. It makes no grammatical sense to use a verb as the object of the preposition "plus," and what would it even be creating?

 

Effects is also a noun.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

Just because you're doing this...effects.

 

Effects is a verb meaning creates. It makes no grammatical sense to use a verb as the object of the preposition "plus," and what would it even be creating?

 

Effects is also a noun.

He knows.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
They're taking advantage of the known dumbness of lottery winners to cheat them out of $40m plus possible deflationary affects.

Just because you're doing this...effects.

 

Effects is a verb meaning creates. It makes no grammatical sense to use a verb as the object of the preposition "plus," and what would it even be creating?

 

Effects is also a noun.

He knows.

 

I know he does.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
What is happening to Kyle right now? Trolling?

Maybe he felt sorry for Derwood and is deflecting attention for his sake.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
What is happening to Kyle right now? Trolling?

 

Derwood was getting attention and I got jealous.

lol - and here I was ascribing a more noble purpose.

CubInOK ACL Cubs

CubInOK

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
possible deflationary affects.

Kyle being Kyle.

 

You also have to account for the fact that Rand Paul or someone like him will be President and we are probably going gold standard.

I've got to think there are too many skeletons in creationist Rand Paul or Canadian Ted Cruz's closets to think one of the crazy right-wingers will get the oval office. Fox News won't let them win.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    6,795
    Total Members
    13,056
    Most Online
    Chrisenvy
    Newest Member
    Chrisenvy
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...